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 Friday, December 13, 2002
No. 2 spot on the line
By Jack Arute
Special to BCSfootball.com
On Saturday, while making final preparations for the Florida-Florida State game, ABC's Jack Arute made a special appearance in the chat room. Arute talked about what to expect tonight as well as who may be chosen for the two BCS bowl at-large berths.
Patricia: Do you think that Steve Spurrier's rotating quarterback system can be successful against Florida State's defense, or will it play into Bobby Bowden's hand?
Jack Arute: I don't think it will really matter because we've been told to look for the following: Rex Grossman will start and shortly thereafter, Jesse Palmer will enter the game. Steve wants to go with the experienced Canadian.
John Frary: Why is Florida State more likely to jump Miami then Florida if they win on Saturday since Florida's schedule was tougher in the SEC then FSU's in the ACC?
Jack Arute: If Florida beats FSU tonight, the Gators have a very good shoot at leapfrogging Miami. The winner of tonight's game has a superior strength-of-schedule when compared to Miami's SOS. Florida, however, will be a closer jump on the Hurricanes should the Gators win.
vernando: The Washington Huskies whooped up on Miami this year. They also have the 2nd toughest schedule in the nation, but are ranked #5??? Come on, move over Miami, Washington needs the #2 spot.. hello BCS.
Jack Arute: An argument can be made, and I have made it on behalf of the Huskies. But, the computers have not been kind to Washington. Let's not forget that one of them is based in good ol' Seattle.
Scott Anderson: Civil War Game-related trivia: Who is the only Heisman winner to lead his team to the NCAA basketball final four? (Not Florida State's Charlie Ward)
Answer: Terry Baker Oregon State. '62 Heisman, '63 Final Four (OSU, Cincinnati, Duke, Loyola-Chicago)
Jack Arute: I was 12 years old. I am old, but not that old.
Good question.
marlin: What are the possibilities of the Oregon State Beavers making the Fiesta Bowl or the Sugar Bowl should they prevail against the University of Oregon Ducks?
Jack Arute: It would be very difficult because of Notre Dame. If Notre Dame runs the table, the Irish are guaranteed one of the two available at-large BCS bids. The Beavers would have to deal with the Va. Tech Hokies or the Nebraska Cornhuskers, who are currently ahead of the Beavers in the BCS.
DannyG: What do you think has been the ultimate downfall this year in Penn State? With all the talk over Casey and Paterno, do you think it's simply a talent shortage?
Jack Arute: The Penn State situation is difficult to get a handle on. I have steadfastly defended Coach Paterno's decision to stand behind his beleaguered quarterback Rashard Casey for Casey's off-the field troubles. Unfortunately, Casey's on-the-field struggles have no doubt contributed to Penn State's disappointing season.
bossy22: Should Marcus Outzen see significant playing time for FSU, how much of an edge does that give Florida?
Jack Arute: Do you remember 1998, when Chris Weinke watched his Seminoles beat the Gators with "Rooster Outzen" at the controls. Seriously, the best and latest information is that Chris will start and is feeling much better. FSU got a big break with this game kicking off at 8 p.m. That's given Weinke an additional 12-14 hours to recover from the stomach flu.
al: Does anyone in Tallahassee care about the election?
Jack Arute: Just the news media types who are camped out in frat houses, dormitories and private homes waiting to get their hotel rooms back tomorrow.
Cody Oates: Why is Nebraska still ahead of Kansas State when the Wildcats beat them. To me that just seems wrong. What do you think?
Jack Arute: Nebraska's schedule-strength ranking is 9th and K-State's 34th and the computers like Nebraska better. Maybe K-State fans should demand a hand recount. K-State will get a chance to make its case if it meets Oklahoma in the Big XII Championship Game on Dec. 2 in Kansas City.
Marty: With the BCS controversy brewing between Miami/FSU, why not incorporate a rule whereby two teams which have met head-to-head, and are BCS ranked next to each other (as are Miami/FSU), the winner of the head-to-head must be ranked higher irregardless of formula score (or some version of this idea)? This would still give weight to the formula in most circumstances, but would give the game itself, not a computer, priority.
Jack Arute: Good idea, but that is not the BCS formula. The present BCS formula mixes subjective (AP, ESPN/USA Today Coaches Polls), computer, and strength-of-schedule. Add the one-point penalty for a loss and you have, in my humble opinion, an effective mix.
Vtfan: Ok Mr. Arute, lets go back to Virginia Tech for a second. Do you think that if they beat Virginia, they will get a BCS at-large bid?
Jack Arute: Not really, although as a Hokie dad, it would be nice. Remember that the Orange Bowl will supplant the traditional Big East berth available in the FedEx Orange Bowl.
The gurus that I consult with give the edge for the second BCS at-large spot to Nebraska.
Kyle: If Michigan hangs on to win and Purdue wins what bowl will the wolverines go to. Also do you think Henson will be back next year?
Jack Arute: Look for the Wolverines to get a New Year's Day berth in Florida. Not on the East Coast. My projection would have Michigan going to the Outback Bowl to play an SEC contender.
Before June, I would have said Drew Henson would maybe not be back. Drew was living his life-long dream playing in the Yankees organization and quarterbacking the Wolverines. His love affair with baseball has waned a bit with his trade to Cincinnati for Denny Neagle. Couple that with Michigan's somewhat disappointing season and I think Mr. Henson will return to Ann Arbor in '01.
Mickey: How do you think Miami's chances are at the Orange Bowl depending on who wins Florida-FSU?
Jack Arute: Right now, the Hurricanes should root for the Gators tonight. Florida will have to use the SEC Championship Game to stake its case for the Orange Bowl. FSU, on the other hand, ends its season tonight and should leapfrog Miami in Monday's BCS rankings.
sharon: Which team do you like tonight?
Jack Arute: I'm very surprised that Florida State is favored by as much as 12 points. Granted, Steve Spurrier has never won as Gator head coach in Tallahassee, but that should only be worth six of the 12 points in the spread. The key tonight for the Gators will be the play of their defensive end Alex Brown. If he can get to Chris Weinke quickly and often -- not necessarily tackling the FSU QB, but rushing his throws -- the Gators should make this a very tight contest.
Krispy Kreme: Are you worried about your safety standing on the sidelines tonight? It's going to be messy.
Jack Arute: Why? Have the Michigan fans shipped in some marshmallows?
The Rock: How much does Miami have to blow out Syracuse by in order to stay at No. 2 in the BCS?
Jack Arute: It would be all but out of the question -- regardless of the score. Most computers stop at 21 points in terms of margin of victory. Dunkel factors in points scored compared to the spread. All in all, the fact that Syracuse is considered a mid-level Division I team and Florida is considered a top-level opponent, the Hurricanes have little chance to retain No. 2 unless Florida wins. Then, the 'Canes must root for Florida's SEC opponent in Atlanta on Dec. 2 or their Armageddon will come following the SEC Championship.
Kyle: Why are people saying that a QB is going to win the Heisman. In my opinion there are more talented WRs and RBs this year. Remember Charles Woodson. Give it to the best player overall!
Jack Arute: I don't think that the Heisman is the sole possession of the quarterback position. Your Woodson reference illustrates that. However, this season, I still believe the two front-runners are Heupel and Weinke. LaDainian Tomlinson (not a quarterback) was in the hunt until the TCU Horned Frogs suffered their loss to San Jose State.
After the A&M game, I was ready to pencil in Josh Heupel on my ballot, but have decided to wait and watch Mr. Weinke tonight and the Big XII Championship Game.
mike p.: Is Drew Brees out of the Heisman race after last weeks poor showing at MSU in your opinion.
Jack Arute: Absolutely. If you think people are screaming about a possible President being inaugurated come January who did not win the popular vote, can you imagine the clamor if the Heisman goes to a player whose team suffered three losses this year?
daniel: what do you think of Auburn's chances against Alabama?
Jack Arute: I like Auburn to take the Iron Bowl. Things are not very rosey (or crimson) in Tuscaloosa these days.
[40] John Maxwell: I have an idea. Since Bush currently leads in Fla. but the vote is who knows when final, put Florida State and Florida in a hat. Let Bush draw one. Gore gets the other team. Candidate holding the winner of the Florida/Florida State game gets all of Florida's Electoral Votes.
Jack Arute: I like that idea. It's too bad the framers of our Consitution didn't have football around when they wrote our democracy determining document.
Thanks again for all your support. Make sure you tune in tonight at 8 p.m. for the battle of Florida on ABC. This gridiron decision 2000 game will DECLARE A WINNER.
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