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 Friday, December 13, 2002
A week is needed to get insight into BCS
By Jack Arute
Special to ABC Sports Online
When looking at the initial BCS standings, don't be concerned as much with who's first, second, third or fourth, but read it like you were reading a Billboard Top 100 hits list and cross-compare when you come back next Monday and see who is on the rise and on the decline. That's what will be interesting.
We're going to hear complaints about the BCS all week, but we're looking over a guy's shoulder to see how it is being worked up. It's only Week 1. Watch as the computer average and schedule rankings fluctuate. We have a lot of football to go.
The quality win index and the overall parity in college football are going to make this a fun year. We missed the fun with Oklahoma last year because it was a climb up the ladder. This time, the system is working better and when the final standings are released on Dec. 9, it will reflect the intentions of the formula.
|  | | Eric Crouch and the Huskers would likely move into the top spot in the BCS if they beat Oklahoma this Saturday. |
So much is going to change this week alone. No. 1 or No. 2 is going to lose. And there will be a lot of change from third place down.
Keep an eye on the quality win credit. It reinforces what the computers and everyone think about Texas. Oklahoma got one full point deducted from its standing with its win over Texas. If Texas gets better and moves up in the rankings, the quality win component gets even bigger for Oklahoma.
But Texas is the one team I put a bullet next to. The Longhorns, in sixth place with one loss, have a schedule left that they should breeze by. They could find themselves with a $13 million payday despite not qualifying for the Big 12 championship game.
What is going to kill Oklahoma and Nebraska is the one-point for a loss one of them is going to get this weekend. UCLA still has to go to Wazzu and play Oregon. And then you have No. 4 Miami and No. 5 Virginia Tech meeting on Dec. 1. With Texas, you go "Hmm." They don't have a good chance of making it to Pasadena, but the 'Horns could sneak into the Top 4 and be guaranteed a BCS bowl bid.
Schedule strength is important in all aspects of the formula, including the computers and subjective polls. For example, Miami's current schedule rank is 92nd. Va. Tech is 47th. Miami has suffered from the downturn of Florida State's and Penn State's seasons.
It's going be fun watching the BCS unravel each week. As far as projecting a 1 vs. 2 right now, it's like as Lee Corso says, "Not so fast, my friends." There is a lot to be done in the top 6.
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