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Friday, December 13, 2002
ABC analysts break down Florida-Florida State
BCSfootball.com
In preparation for Saturday's showdown in Tallahassee between No. 4 Florida and No. 3 Florida State (ABC, 8 p.m. ET), ABC's analysts broke down what each team needs to do in order to win.
Terry Bowden
ABC studio analyst
Even if I wasn't neutral, there are two things that weigh heavily in Florida State's favor.
1. Home-field advantage: This is one of those games where the home crowd is a huge factor. The fact that it is being played in Tallahassee and that a Steve Spurrier coached team has never won in Tallahassee is an indication of how valuable it is.
|  | | Chris Weinke will be on pressure this weekend to lead Florida State past Florida and help the Seminoles pass Miami in the BCS. |
2. Chris Weinke: In a game where athletes are all over the field, the one position that Florida State has a huge advantage is at quarterback, while Florida is alternating between a young QB and an old one. Whereas Florida is hoping to get outstanding play by mixing and matching, with Weinke, at 28 years old and a senior, it's a given that FSU has an edge. Weinke leads the nation in passing efficiency, touchdown throws, and passing yards. He should be counted on to play at his best.
But, as big games always go, turnovers are important. Florida can't turn it over and has to avoid giving up big plays. Florida State kills people by getting big plays out of its wide receivers.
Florida has to do two things to win this game:
1. Avoid the big play: Florida State kills people by getting big plays out of its wide receivers.
2. Turnovers: As big games always go, turnovers are important. Florida can't turn it over. The Gators can't throw any interceptions.
Florida has plenty of talent to win.
Finally, if this is a close game, and it does come down to a last-minute field goal, Florida State better hope it is three points ahead and not three points down, because if the 'Noles are trailing, the game will go to the Gators.
Gary Danielson
ABC analyst
Florida has a big road ahead for the Gators to knock off Florida State, but they have the type of team that always gives Florida State trouble. Namely, a front four that can put pressure on Chris Weinke and receivers that can beat Florida State's bump-and-run defense.
If you can't beat the bump-and-run like N.C. State did when the Wolfpack had Torry Holt, you don't have a chance to beat them. When Virginia beat FSU in 1995, the Cavaliers had Germane Crowell. Miami had that with Santana Moss and Reggie Wayne this season. You have to have someone that can beat the bump-and-run. Florida has the type of team to do it.
The absolute key to the game is which offensive line protects its quarterback best. If either defensive line dominates the line of scrimmage -- and both are capable of it -- that team will likely win.
I like the fact, even though I am not a fan of the two-quarterback rotation, that Steve Spurrier has two options in this game. Florida State has a history of pounding quarterbacks, and you might need two. Two quarterbacks doesn't work in a long-term, but in a one-game deal like this, I like that Florida has two options.
Florida State's running backs got nicked a little bit against Wake Forest. That's something to look at early.
Neither team plays great special teams. They have great speed and they make plays, but they are susceptible to gaps: missed field goals, bad punting. It's up-and-down the line. When you are playing at the level of speed that these teams are, you are susceptible to big plays, which makes it so fun to watch.
|  | | Florida needs Derrick Chambers and Co. to pressure Chris Weinke. |
To me, this game is how the NFL's game is matched up. When you are unable to handle the front four, you are forced to bring in a tight end or back, and that limits your amount of pass coverage you can do. If the offensive line can hold its own against either of the defensive lines, they are in good shape.
Florida has a talented group with Alex Brown, Derrick Chambers, Gerald Warren, Thaddeus Bullard. Brett Williams did a good job on Alex Brown last year. I've been watching Brown. He's got his trigger back. He's rushing the passer well. One of the tough things about measuring how well one of these defensive players plays against Florida State is that Florida State runs so many quick passes. You can be having a good game as a defensive end and you might not touch the QB because they throw it so quick. It's more important how the defensive tackles put the pressure up the middle. That will be the key. The defensive ends are the headlines and you have to have them, but give me a Warren Sapp type performance and they can win the game.
Jack Arute
ABC sideline reporter
Florida has to shut down Chris Weinke. The best way to shut him down is to rush the pass. Florida has to get as many knockdowns as possible. You give Weinke time to find his group of talented wide receivers, and you're going to be in for a long day.
|  | | Steve Spurrier plans to rotate Jesse Palmer (left) with Rex Grossman. |
Florida State has to get to the quarterback, but the 'Noles have to figure out which quarterback to get after. Jesse Palmer has been named the starter, but if there is one thing we have seen in big games is that Steve Spurrier is not afraid to throw new twists into the mix. Could we see alternating plays with alternating quarterbacks? That creates headaches for your preparation.
Palmer and Rex Grossman are about the same, but whenever you get into a shuttle system, it's one step below a no-huddle, and we see what a no-huddle can do. College football has become similar to the NFL in the sense that defense is predicated on personnel.
Both teams have talented wide receivers. Jabar Gaffney is a stud for Florida. His father and a number of uncles were stars at Florida.
Florida State has Anquan Boldin. He's another one in the long line of converted high school quarterbacks who turned into a standout wide receiver at Florida State. Peter Warrick came to FSU as a state champion quarterback in Florida.
The deciding factor will be who gets more yards on the ground. Florida State doesn't have one go-to running back. The Seminoles have become an air-it-out kind of team. So has Florida. That is why this game is exciting to watch.
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