|
|
|
|
 Tuesday, October 23, 2001
Too early to get excited about the BCS
By Terry Bowden
Special to ABC Sports Online
Bowden's Weekly Chat Show
Before we start dialing up all the call-in shows, we need to remember what the Bowl Championship Series is all about. There is an old saying, "there is nothing less important in life than the score at halftime."
|  | | Jonathan Vilma and the Hurricanes can't afford to lose a game this season. |
In regard to college football, I believe there is nothing less important than a BCS standing in the middle of October. Let me give you a hypothetical example and try to explain why.
Suppose teams A and B each play an 11-game schedule of the exact same opponents. Each team beats these same exact opponents and wins by the exact same score, but team A starts with the weakest teams and progressively faces stronger competition, while team B starts in the reverse order, facing the strongest opponents first. At the midpoint of the season, team B will look better, but it won't mean anything in the end.
The point I am trying to make is that the BCS has never been intended to give a true picture of who the top two teams are until after the games have been played. So if your favorite team is undefeated, but doesn't play any top 10 teams until the last three weeks of the season, you just need to be patient and wait (that's you Miami). The rankings will take care of themselves.
One must also remember that the BCS was not created to pick the 15 best teams, but merely to do the best job it can to match the most deserving two to play in the national championship game. I can almost hear the debate starting now about how terribly unfair the BCS is, but we need to remember that it is a heck of a lot better than what we had before.
Let's now take a guesstimate at what each team must do to get into the Rose Bowl presented to AT&T. But remember, no college football team in America can afford to lose its last game.
Miami
Miami will have to go undefeated to make it to the championship game. Miami's greatest concern is that UCLA and Oklahoma or Nebraska go undefeated and their strength of schedule would throw them above the Hurricanes. A loss to Virginia Tech on Dec. 1 would be devastating. Any loss, along with its strength-of-schedule, would knock the 'Canes out.
Remaining schedule: West Virginia (Oct. 25), Temple (Nov. 3), at Boston College (Nov. 10), Syracuse (Nov. 17), Washington (Nov. 24), at Virginia Tech (Dec. 1)
Oklahoma
If they win out, the Sooners are in. If they lose one game, it would have to be this weekend at Nebraska, so that they would have time to climb back up in the polls.
Remaining schedule: at Nebraska (Oct. 27), Tulsa (Nov. 3), Texas A&M (Nov. 10), at Texas Tech (Nov. 17), Big 12 Championship Game (Dec. 1 -- if South Division champion)
Nebraska
See Oklahoma.
Remaining schedule: Oklahoma (Oct. 27), at Kansas (Nov. 3), Kansas State (Nov. 10), at Colorado (Nov. 23), Big 12 Championship Game (Dec. 1 -- if North Division champion)
Virginia Tech
With their strength-of-schedule, obviously the Hokies must go undefeated. They better not overlook Syracuse this Saturday before they start praying for heavy snow and bitter cold on Dec. 1 against Miami.
Remaining schedule: Syracuse (Oct. 27), at Pittsburgh (Nov. 3), at Temple (Nov. 10), at Virginia (Nov. 17), Miami (Dec. 1)
And if two other teams end up undefeated at the end of the year, Virginia Tech's strength-of-schedule issue will be great. Whereas Miami could be left out of the national championship picture, Virginia Tech would be left out.
UCLA
The Bruins need to stay undefeated. Although their strength-of-schedule might be able to get them there at 10-1, the voting polls are not always kind to West Coast teams. The Bruins do have three roadblocks the next three weeks. They have to be at their best to beat Oregon, Stanford and Washington State.
Remaining schedule: at Stanford (Oct. 27), at Washington State (Nov. 3), Oregon (Nov. 10), at USC (Nov. 17), Arizona State (Dec. 1)
Florida
Of all the teams with one loss, Florida has the best chance of working its way back up into the championship game. If the Gators can return to the level of play that they exhibited before the Auburn debacle and win the rest of their games, they would have the best shot of getting into the Rose Bowl if only one team remained undefeated.
Remember, the SEC and Big 12 have huge championship games at the end of the season and are very significant in affecting the final BCS poll.
Remaining schedule: Georgia (Oct. 27), Vanderbilt (Nov. 3), at South Carolina (Nov. 10), Florida State (Nov. 17), Tennessee (Dec. 1), SEC Championship Game (Dec. 8 -- if East Division champion)
Texas, Michigan, Tennessee
Most people would agree that these three are going to be long shots. If they do end up with only one loss, and their strength-of-schedule is strong enough, a lot of voters in the Coaches and AP polls will have to change their perceptions and put them over other one-loss teams. These teams can't just win the rest of their games, they need to win them quite impressively. And remember, when it comes to the people polls, margin of victory means a lot.
Texas' remaining schedule: at Missouri (Oct. 27), at Baylor (Nov. 3), Kansas (Nov. 10), at Texas A&M (Nov. 23)
Michigan's remaining schedule: at Iowa (Oct. 27), at Michigan State (Nov. 3), Minnesota(Nov. 10), at Wisconsin (Nov. 17), Ohio State (Nov. 24)
Tennessee's remaining schedule: South Carolina (Oct. 27), at Notre Dame (Nov. 3), Memphis (Nov. 10), at Kentucky (Nov. 17), Vanderbilt (Nov. 24), at Florida (Dec. 1), SEC Championship Game (Dec. 8 -- if East Division champion)
Maryland, Washington State
Two teams that deserve to be mentioned and are probably not in everyone's championship picture, including mine, may soon be. If either Maryland or Washington State goes undefeated, they could enter into the national championship debate. After Washington State plays Oregon and UCLA, and Maryland plays Florida State, we will have a better idea about their standing.
Maryland's remaining schedule: at Florida State (Oct. 27), Troy State (Nov. 3), Clemson (Nov. 10), at North Carolina State (Nov. 17)
Washington State's remaining schedule: Oregon (Oct. 27), UCLA (Nov. 3), at Arizona State (Nov. 10), at Washington (Nov. 17)
Wouldn't it be interesting after all the dust settles that the only two undefeateds were Maryland and Washington State?
Brigham Young
And there is BYU. Yes, the Cougars are 7-0 and yes Gary Crowton should be considered for Coach of the Year honors. And yes, they could go undefeated this season. But will they have a chance to play for the national championship? Unfortunately not. Not only does their strength-of-schedule weigh heavily against them, but their opponents are having lousier seasons than usual. So at best, look for BYU to get the Tulane and Marshall award for doing all it could in a lost cause.
Remaining schedule: at San Diego State (Oct. 27), Colorado State (Nov. 1), at Wyoming (Nov. 10), Utah (Nov. 17), at Mississippi State (Dec. 1), at Hawaii (Dec. 8)
Terry Bowden was the head coach at Salem College, Samford University and Auburn University. He is ABC's college football studio analyst and contributes regularly for ABC Sports Online.
|
|
|
|
ESPN.com:
HELP |
ADVERTISER INFO |
CONTACT US |
TOOLS |
SITE MAP
Copyright ©2001 ESPN Internet Group. Terms of Use and Privacy Policy and Safety Information are applicable to this site. Employment opportunities at ESPN.com.
|
|
