This winter you could have almost had a joy-meter for the Pacific and South Atlantic Ocean. The El Nino pattern that took hold in December has been responsible for more swell and major swells.

NOAA Climate Prediction CenterThis shows surface temperature anomolies in the Pacific

The phenomenon peaked in late December with surface temperatures in the "Nino Region" (in the Central Pacific, between Australia and South America.) The difference is about 2.7 F (1.5 C) warmer than average. This seems like a negligible amount, but it causes erratic weather all over the world. Included in said weather are more storms and more storms of higher intensity, hence more surf for Hawaii and the West Coast. This year's Billabong XXL Awards are going to be something. It also meant severe nor'easters on the East Coast, producing never-ending swell train down to the Caribbean. But is that backing off?

Terry ReisIt's been a wild ride since November.

This month, those temperatures have dropped, causing a weakening trend. This has barely slowed down the wave machine in the Pacific for now. But in the next few weeks, things could slow down as we enter a possibly "weak" El Nino. Dr. Jeff Masters did a great entry about all of this on his Wunderblog at Weatherunderground.com. He suggests, due to some very technical meteorological data, that the weakening may slow, which would keep the party going, if not the full rager we had earlier this winter.

It doesn't seem like things will be slowing up until well into the spring. El Nino has also been known to inhibit hurricane formation in the tropical Atlantic, which makes sense. After the few fun hurricane swells in August and September, the tropics went to bed early last fall, about the same time we entered the pattern. Statistics show that when they rebound, they rebound hard. Let's keep our fingers crossed.