| | The Winston Cup Series has finally been paroled from Charlotte and now it charges head first into a series of races that I believe set the tone and the temperament for the summer of excitement that has been a trademark of NASCAR racing.
The next five races are at totally different venues. Each is different in length. The tracks are different in design. But, they do have one thing in common -- each will weed out the contenders for the 2000 Winston Cup title.
|  | | Bobby Labonte won from the pole at Dover last season. He's leading the Winston Cup points. All this with an inferior car? |
Bobby Labonte heads to Dover, Del., this weekend as the leader of a tightly-packed point race. He is also the defending champion of the MBNA 400. Of course, Labonte drives a Pontiac, and some of the Pontiac people aren't too happy right now. The Pontiac teams believe they are at an aerodynamic disadvantage compared to the Ford and Chevrolet camps. And they could be right. But they might be a victim of their own talent.
Here's what I think happened with the Pontiac. It built a great race car. Then, what happens next? Everybody else tries to build a better race car. And that's exactly what's happened. It's a constant game of leap frog. I build something, you build something better. Then my job is to come back and out-do you. And if I don't try to build something better, well I'm not doing my job.
What the Pontiac teams want more than anything is some help in getting more rear downforce. Pontiac knows it's way off because there are Pontiac teams switching to Dodge next year and there's a Ford team switching to Dodge next year. So, they've obviously compared wind tunnel numbers from this year in their battle to build the best race car for 2001.
But here's one problem NASCAR faces if they want to help the Pontiac. Pontiac teams are first and second in points.
There was a similar situation a few years ago when the Chevy teams were pleading for help. The only thing was Jeff Gordon was driving a Chevy and winning every other weekend. Translation: Make the Chevrolet better, you make Jeff Gordon better.
The 18 team of Labonte and the 22 team of Ward Burton, currently second in Winston Cup points, along with the 20 team of Tony Stewart (10th) are three of the most talented teams in the garage. You can't penalize them for being good, and if you know the numbers are off, you have to find some way to balance the aerodynamic issue.
Because of the way the 1-mile track at Dover is designed, downforce will not be as critical as it was at Charlotte. Don't get me wrong, downforce is a factor pulling out of your driveway, and if it gets hot in Dover this weekend, the track could get slick. But the next acid test of aerodynamic balance is Michigan on June 10. And the Pontiac bunch is hoping NASCAR allows them to make some changes for that race.
As for this Sunday, the shorter track, the higher banking, and the concrete surface all play into the formula for making the car get around the track. Then there's the tire situation, but that's another column. At Dover, the fast guy wins or the guy with good fuel mileage wins. Sometimes it's the same guy, most of the time it's not.
Pay attention here. Last spring at Dover, only two cars finished on the lead lap. Last fall at Dover, just six cars were on the lead lap when the race ended. Go back to May of 1998 and only four cars finished on the lead lap. In the spring of 1997, five finished on the lead lap and in September of '97 just four cars on the lead lap.
I still believe if this was a 500k race, Dover could have the best two races on the Winston Cup circuit. The track is fast, and it is tuff. Not just tough, but TUFF! Fuel mileage can be a factor, but at 400 miles, only a handful of cars will be around to contend. At 312 miles it's a race. At 400 miles, it's an endurance test.
It may be just as rewarding for the driver who wins, but not nearly as exciting for the fans.
One of the big issues heading into Sunday's race is how will the rookies do? If I was Dale Earnhardt Jr. or Matt Kenseth, my first stop in Dover would be the casino outside the track. I don't think there's anything these rookies can't do right these days.
But these two stories are not unlike the 18, 20 and 22 teams that we were talking about earlier -- talented drivers surrounded with solid crews. Plus, the path each took to the Winston Cup Series is very similar. It always involved patience and it was a learning-by-doing program, not just doing and learning.
And that should be the road map for rookies in the future.
The Busch Grand National Series provides great racing. But, above all else, it is a training camp for Winston Cup wanna-be's. The Busch guys race at most of the same tracks. In many of the races, the line-up is sprinkled with a Martin, Burton, Gordon, Labonte, Nemechek, Marlin, and/or Schrader -- all guys that have won in the Winston Cup Series.
Nobody really knew how good Earnhardt Jr. would be until he showed himself in the Busch Series. Virtually nobody had even heard of Kenseth until Robbie Reiser gave him a shot in the Busch Series. And car owner Joe Gibbs probably took the biggest flier of them all with Stewart. Baptize the open-wheel star in the Busch Series, where he never won a race or even ran the whole season, then try and polish raw talent into a stock-car racer. It worked.
Groom your talent with time, something that can be tough to do when a multi-million dollar sponsor is waving the corporate check book in your face.
These next five races could not only go a long way in determining the Winston Cup contenders, but also lead to who comes out on top in the Raybestos Rookie of the Year competition.
Over the next five weeks, watch teams that can run consistently well. These next five races are races where good teams win and great teams start to soar. We have seen tremendous balance through the first 12 races of the 2000 season, I hope that continues. Remember, I predicted 15 different winners this season and I still think that will happen.
Watch the races, watch the winners, and count the points over the next five weeks. Then, when we start to close in on November, go back and compare this five-week stretch to the guys still in the top-five, or top-seven, in the point chase. Things really heat up in July, but the temperature starts to rise this Sunday at Dover. | |
ALSO SEE
Weber's mailbag
Ask Bill Weber
Kenseth's boss in way of record at Dover
Speed doesn't always decide Dover's winner
MBNA Platinum 400 Breakdown
|
