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 Friday, June 2
Title drive heats up over next five
 
By Matt Yocum
Special to ESPN.com

 
Mark Martin
Mark Martin hopes to rebound from a terrible month of May.
The 2000 Winston Cup season has been one full of surprises and history making events. It started with 10 different winners, and has continued to include 12 drivers in Victory Lane in the first 13 races.

Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Matt Kenseth have each found Victory Lane, marking the first time two rookies have scored wins in the same season since Ron Bouchard and Morgan Shepherd in 1981. And going into last week's Coca Cola 600, the points race was the closest since Loudon in 1997.

A three-point advantage by Bobby Labonte has blossomed into a breathable 54 points, but while a couple drivers have had breakout seasons, no driver has broken away from the championship-chasing pack.

That's why the next five races could be the most important in bringing the championship picture into focus.

This weekend kicks off the run with a 400-miler at The Monster Mile. Stops at the two-mile, D-shaped oval in Michigan and then Pocono's triangle come prior to the first road course race of the season in Sonoma. This crucial trek is then completed where the season started -- at the always unpredictable restrictor-plate fun of Daytona.

Five tracks, each completely different from the next, and each with challenges for both drivers and teams. But, the next five races might favor the pace-setting 18 team and Labonte, who won the Dover race last spring, swept both Pocono events, and won the last time out at Michigan.

And even though he's never won a road course event, Labonte does have two top-five finishes on the serpintine courses of Sonoma and Watkins Glen. The next five races couldn't come at a better time for the 18 guys.

So, who stands a chance at knocking Labonte off his pearch? Well, no one has made a major move. But Labonte hasn't exactly pulled away. All of which makes the next five races that much more interesting.

Mark Martin could and should be the man to watch, but he suffered through a miserable month of May. Just how bad has the last month of racing been for the perenial title chaser? Martin and the 6 team found misfortune and frustration at Richmond, The Winston, and the Coca-Cola 600. A cut tire, mechanical problems, accident, and motor problems were the only highlights from May.

The bad luck hit after a productive month of April, when Martin climbed into position to pounce and finally regained the points lead after an 87-race absence. He held it for once race, as bad karma took its toll. Since 1992, the point leader going into the 10th race has won the title only once.

Now the good news. June has arrived and over the next 30 days much can change. Here's how the top five in the points have fared at the five tracks on the horizon.

MBNA Platinum 400
Michael Waltrip
Advantage: Labonte

Martin has won three of the last five Dover events. The bad news? They were all in the fall and points leader Labonte won this race last season. So Dover could be a push for everyone except Bobby Labonte. One year ago, Labonte and Martin finished first and third, the same spot they currently reside in the points. Ward Burton could be in trouble, he has only one career top-10 finish and averages about 25th on The Monster Mile. Burton has turned in strong runs, but not productive finishes. Last year, he was in third around the 300-mile mark, but a cracked tailpipe ruined his day. Meanwhile, Dale Earnhardt could be the sleeper. Heck, that has been the story of his season, strong but quiet runs. Of the drivers in the top five, Earnhardt is second behind Labonte's 11.6 with an average finish of 12.1. Still, Labonte has seven top-five finishes in the last 8 Dover races.

Kmart 400
Michael Waltrip
Advantage: Labonte

Christmas could come early for the Pontiac camp when it arrives in Michigan. After several tests of various body modifications in the wind tunnel and lobbying NASCAR, the Pontiac will have a new rear bumper for Michigan. Labonte has won three times at Michigan, while Martin has won four times in the Irish Hills. Burton's best Michigan finish is fourth, but he does have two poles at the track. Earnhardt could have won the race last fall, as he Jeff Gordon and Labonte waged a spirited battle in the late going. Then Labonte decided he had had enough, pulled away, and scored the victory. The Big E has two victories at Michigan, but his last was during the Bush administration. Score Michigan to Labonte.

Pocono 500
Michael Waltrip
Advantage: Labonte

This one is easy, score Pocono's triangle to Labonte right away. But give Burton at least a shot to knock off his fellow Pontiac driver. Over the past two years, Burton has won a pole, and had the car to beat more than once. Bad luck and being in the wrong place at the wrong time has resulted in only one top-five finish -- a second place in 1994 during the Goodyear vs. Hoosier tire war.

Save Mart/Kragen 350K
Michael Waltrip
Advantage: Martin

This is the "X Factor" when it comes to these five races. If there is a slight advantage to anyone in the top five, it might go to Martin, who in the last 10 visits to the wine country has done anything but whine about his chances. Martin has finished first or second at Sears Point five times, including a victory back in '97. Again, Labonte has never won a road course race on the Winston Cup circuit, but he did test well at Sonoma this spring. Burton is a big question mark. He's still searching for his first career top-five finish on a road course. Earnhardt has showed off his road racing prowess in recent years. He has four top-four finishes at Sonoma, including a victory in '95. Earnhardt followed up that victory with a fourth place in '96. But that was his last top five at Sears Point.

Pepsi 400
Michael Waltrip
Advantage: Earnhardt

Daytona's mid-summer classic is anybody's game. Dale Jarrett will try for the three-peat, after winning last year's Pepsi 400 and this year's Daytona 500. But when you think of Daytona, the first guy to think about is always Earnhardt. He is the all-time dominator at Daytona. He had won two Pepsi 400s, but those were when the race was held under the sun. The only thing he hasn't won at Daytona is a Winston Cup race under the lights. Advantage: Earnhardt. But Labonte has run well at the beach, and Burton has shown hints of what could be. Each hope that new rule change will work wonders at Daytona. Recent wind tunnel tests have given the 22 team led by Tommy Baldwin hope of a first restrictor-plate victory. Jeff Burton (no I haven't forgotten about the younger Burton who is currently fifth in points) finished third in last year's Pepsi 400. Let me say this, "The Firecracker 400" -- it kills me to say Pepsi 400. I am a traditionalist, so to me it will always be the Firecracker.

So, after all that, who will win it all? I guess that is the $2 million question. It depends on momentum, which is a funny thing. It is hard to get momentum, tough to keep, and easy to lose. Jarrett had the momentum last season by top-fiving the competition to death. This year, no one has proven to be that consistent.

So whoever can hit upon the right momentum at the right time will win it all. But in this wacky world of Winston Cup racing, anything can and usually will happen before the season finale in Atlanta.

Call me after Daytona, when I am booking my travel for New Hampshire. We will probably have a clear picture of the title chase. Then again, keeping with the 2000 season, it still might be cloudy.
 


ALSO SEE
Weber: A crucial stretch

Kenseth's boss in way of record at Dover

Speed doesn't always decide Dover's winner

MBNA Platinum 400 Breakdown




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