ESPN's early ACC projections

July, 15, 2014
Jul 15
10:30
AM ET
ESPN used its Football Power Index to put together preseason projections for each team, and once again Florida State is a heavy favorite.

According to ESPN’s formula, the Seminoles have at least an 87 percent chance of winning each game on their schedule next season, with their toughest battles projected to be at Miami (87 percent chance of an FSU win), vs. Clemson (88 percent), vs. Florida (91 percent) and the neutral site season opener against Oklahoma State (91 percent).

Overall, ESPN has FSU with a 40 percent chance to finish the season undefeated. The next closest team is Oregon, with just a 13 percent chance at an undefeated season. The numbers also suggest it’ll be an FSU vs. North Carolina ACC title game, with Clemson, Virginia Tech and Miami having the next best shots at a conference championship. On the other hand, Wake Forest has just 3.6 projected wins -- the third-fewest among Power 5 teams.

Of course, a lot can change between now and when the games are actually played, but for a quick look into the ACC’s preseason projections, here’s how ESPN’s FPI numbers add up at the moment.

Keep in mind that the conference ranks are based on their odds of winning the ACC, so teams in the Atlantic have lower odds due to tougher competition.

ACC ATLANTIC DIVISION

Boston College

Projected record: 5-7
Strength of schedule: 54
Chance of undefeated season: 0%
Odds of ACC title: 0%
Conference rank: 12

Clemson

Projected record: 9-3
Strength of schedule: 51
Chance of undefeated season: 0.37%
Odds of ACC title: 5.1%
Conference rank: 3

Florida State

Projected record: 12-1
Strength of schedule: 41
Chance of undefeated season: 40.33%
Odds of ACC title: 73%
Conference rank: 1

Louisville

Projected record: 7-5
Strength of schedule: 55
Chance of undefeated season: 0%
Odds of ACC title: 0.3%
Conference rank: 9

NC State

Projected record: 6-6
Strength of schedule: 65
Chance of undefeated season: 0%
Odds of ACC title: 0%
Conference rank: 13

Syracuse

Projected record: 6-6
Strength of schedule: 47
Chance of undefeated season: 0%
Odds of ACC title: 0.1%
Conference rank: 11

Wake Forest

Projected record: 4-8
Strength of schedule: 60
Chance of undefeated season: 0%
Odds of ACC title: 0%
Conference rank: 14

ACC COASTAL DIVISION

Duke

Projected record: 8-4
Strength of schedule: 66
Chance of undefeated season: 0.01%
Odds of ACC title: 1.8%
Conference rank: 7

Georgia Tech

Projected record: 6-6
Strength of schedule: 43
Chance of undefeated season: 0%
Odds of ACC title: 1%
Conference rank: 8

Miami

Projected record: 8-4
Strength of schedule: 35
Chance of undefeated season: 0%
Odds of ACC title: 3.2%
Conference rank: 5

North Carolina

Projected record: 9-4
Strength of schedule: 39
Chance of undefeated season: 0.23%
Odds of ACC title: 10.1%
Conference rank: 2

Pittsburgh

Projected record: 8-4
Strength of schedule: 62
Chance of undefeated season: 0.01%
Odds of ACC title: 1.9%
Conference rank: 6

Virginia

Projected record: 4-8
Strength of schedule: 13
Chance of undefeated season: 0%
Odds of ACC title: 0.2%
Conference rank: 12

Virginia Tech

Projected record: 8-4
Strength of schedule: 61
Chance of undefeated season: 0.01%
Odds of ACC title: 3.3%
Conference rank: 4

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