Breaking down the ACC race

October, 27, 2008
Oct 27
11:32
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By Heather Dinich

Posted by ESPN.com's Heather Dinich

Let's make this easy and start with what we know for sure: If Virginia and Florida State win out, they win.

Only problem is, that's about as certain as a money-back guarantee on a used Pinto.

There are nine teams within one victory of the ACC lead -- nine! -- and 10 teams within a game and a half. Figure that one out. Coaches throughout the league and ACC officials in Greensboro will tell you they've never seen the conference as competitive as it is this season. No other league in the country has 10 teams with a winning record.

It's exciting. It's entertaining. And if it keeps up, the chances are good that the multiple tie-breaker scenarios will have to be used.

"There's no gimmes," North Carolina coach Butch Davis said. "When you look at some conferences, there's the haves and the have-nots. There may not be a lot of them, but in some conference there are two or three teams that are 0-7, or 1-6 and they're not playing very good, but that doesn't seem to be the case in this league right now. Everybody is pretty competitive, and if you don't play well, you've got a chance to get your butt beat."

Here's a quick breakdown of key games remaining in each division:

ATLANTIC

  • The Nov. 22 game in College Park between Florida State and Maryland could determine the division winner.
  • Both teams, though, still have to get past Boston College. FSU will host the Eagles on Nov. 15, and the Eagles will host Maryland on Nov. 29. Boston College also plays a key division game at Wake Forest on Nov. 22.
  • If FSU beats Georgia Tech this weekend, that will put more pressure on Maryland to continue winning. If the Noles lose, that puts the Terps in first place.

COASTAL

  • Miami travels to Charlottesville for a critical game this weekend that could either give the Hurricanes an edge in the Coastal or put them on the outside looking in.
  • If Virginia loses and Georgia Tech wins this weekend, the Nov. 8 game between Georgia Tech at North Carolina could play a role in determining the division winner, as could the Nov. 20 game of Miami at Georgia Tech.
  • Virginia Tech isn't out of it yet, and a road trip to Miami on Nov. 13 could be key down the road.
  • And yes, it's very possible we could have a replay of last year's Commonwealth Cup, the rivalry game between Virginia and Virginia Tech that in 2007 determined the Coastal Division winner.

Trying to figure out the various scenarios with still so many key games left is dizzying, but the important thing to remember is who beat whom within their divisions. That's why if Virginia loses this weekend and Georgia Tech wins, the Coastal Division will get even more interesting because Virginia, Georgia Tech and North Carolina will have all had two losses to Coastal Division opponents, while Miami had just one.

The bottom line is this: The only thing predictable about this league is how unpredictable it's been. Get ready for another month of it.

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