ESPN College Football

Our series taking a look at the most important game on the schedule this year for each ACC school continues today with Duke. For those of you just tuning in, this is a look at which games will reveal the most or have the biggest impact on the 2012 race.

Duke

Most important game: Sept. 29 at Wake Forest

Why it’s important: If Duke is going to go bowling, it HAS to be able to win the winnable games, and this is definitely one of them. This has been one of the most entertaining series in the ACC. Since 2005, when Duke lost 44-6 to Wake Forest, the Blue Devils have lost five of six games in this series by a combined 16 points. Three of those games (2011, 24-23; 2008, 33-30 OT; 2006, 14-13), have been by a field goal or less. In the fifth season under coach David Cutcliffe, Duke should be able to go 3-1 in the nonconference schedule with wins over FIU, NC Central and Memphis. The key this year should be more conference wins, and it’s going to have to start on the road at Wake Forest.

More in this series:

• Boston College
• Clemson

Now that spring practices are over, it’s time to re-evaluate the ACC pecking order for 2012. There wasn’t much change at the top from the pre-spring power rankings, but Georgia Tech did get a slight bump, along with two teams on Tobacco Road. Here’s a look at the latest ACC power rankings:

1. Florida State: The Noles’ defensive line should be one of the deepest and best in the conference, if not the country, and they’ve got an outstanding quarterback in EJ Manuel. If the young offensive line can mature quickly and the running game improves from 2011, there’s no reason the Seminoles shouldn’t be contending for the ACC title.

2. Clemson: The Tigers could open the season without star receiver Sammy Watkins, who is awaiting his punishment after he was arrested on misdemeanor drug charges, but as long as he’s in the lineup and the offensive line is playing well, Clemson has enough talent to defend its 2011 ACC title.

3. Virginia Tech: It’s hard to forget how the Hokies fared against Clemson in two meetings last season, but they enter this season with the better defense. The question is how quickly the revamped offensive line can come together, and who will emerge as the next star running back.

4. NC State: This team is quietly preparing a championship-caliber roster. Quarterback Mike Glennon is still under the radar, and he’s got an experienced offensive line to work with. This is a team that could surprise some people.

5. Georgia Tech: The Jackets had a promising spring, but the defensive line has to replace two of three starters, and last season’s atrocious special teams still have a lot to prove. One thing is for sure: These guys will be able to run the ball on just about anyone.

6. Wake Forest: Much like the rest of its division, Wake Forest’s success will hinge in part on how quickly the new starters on the offensive line come together. The Demon Deacons have an experienced and much-improved quarterback in Tanner Price, and last year they made a statement that they’re not to be overlooked in the ACC race.

7. North Carolina: The two biggest questions for the Tar Heels are how quickly they can adapt to and execute a new system under first-year coach Larry Fedora, and where they will find their motivation now that the NCAA has banned them from the postseason. This spring revealed a positive outlook for the new offense, which should give quarterback Bryn Renner a chance to shine.

8. Virginia: The ACC’s 2011 Coach of the Year has quickly raised expectations, but they should be tempered because seven starters have to be replaced on defense. Michael Rocco is the undisputed starting quarterback -- unless Alabama transfer Phillip Sims has something to say about it.

9. Miami: With Stephen Morris out this spring with a back injury, quarterback transfer Ryan Williams had a chance to impress the coaches. The position is one of many questions still looming for the Canes, a young team still waiting for closure from an NCAA investigation.

10. Maryland: The Terps had a good spring and were able to move forward with players who wanted to be there. It was a positive vibe, but coach Randy Edsall is still tangled in the shadow of last year’s two-win season. He’ll have to improve upon it without the services of former quarterback Danny O’Brien.

11. Boston College: Several offseason staff changes were embraced this spring, and quarterback Chase Rettig made strides under yet another offensive coordinator, Doug Martin. The Eagles have to find a way to win without two of their most valuable players in running back Montel Harris, who was dismissed from the team, and linebacker Luke Kuechly, who left early for the NFL.

12. Duke: The Blue Devils had a good spring and are still buying into the philosophies of coach David Cutcliffe. They’ve been on the verge of making the postseason before, but fans are looking for them to finally break through in Year 5 under Cutcliffe. Quarterback Sean Renfree can get them there if they minimize the turnovers and play better defense.

Earlier this morning we looked at who in the Atlantic Division has the most to prove. The Coastal Division is up next:

1. Duke coach David Cutcliffe. It’s time for Cutcliffe to prove his program is still heading in the right direction, and the most obvious way for him to do that is to lead the Blue Devils to a bowl game. Cutcliffe will be entering his fifth season in Durham, and while he’s been painfully close to a breakthrough winning season -- losing eight games over the past two years by seven or fewer points -- he will ultimately be judged by the win column.

2. North Carolina. The Tar Heels have to prove they can run Larry Fedora’s new offense. They have to prove they can run defensive coordinator Vic Koenning’s new 4-2-5 scheme. But most of all, they have to prove that once again, they can overcome change and the NCAA. There is no bowl game to play for this year. They’ll have to prove they can find their own motivation.

3. Georgia Tech defensive coordinator Al Groh. It will be the third season in Groh’s 3-4 scheme, and Georgia Tech fans are looking for more improvement from the group. That could be tough to come by, considering the Jackets have to replace two starters up front.

4. Miami quarterback Stephen Morris. We learned this spring that Memphis transfer Ryan Williams can and will challenge Morris. With Morris sidelined this spring with a back injury, Williams had his chance to shine -- much like Morris has had his opportunities at the expense of former starter Jacory Harris. It’s up to Morris to reassert himself as the leader of the offense.

5. Virginia Tech’s offensive line. Yes, all of the hype is around who will be the next great running back after the early departure of David Wilson, but they’ll all be going nowhere fast if the guys up front don’t get it together. The good news for the Hokies is that this group had a good spring. The key now is to build upon that in summer camp.

6. Virginia’s secondary. This group has to replace three starters from a year ago and more than 90 combined career starts. The Hoos will depend on young players this year, and Demetrious Nicholson, who has 13 starts, is now the veteran of the group.

Who doesn't love lists or rankings?

And, to take that one step further, who doesn't love lists that include 124 people?

Steve Greenberg and Matt Hayes over at The Sporting News took the unenviable task of rankings every single FBS coach, Nos. 1-124. It should come as no surprise that Alabama's Nick Saban topped all coaches after winning two of the past three national titles.

Frank Beamer tops the ACC contingent, and is the only coach from the conference cracking the top-10, as Virginia Tech's leader is ranked ninth.

The average ranking of the 12 ACC coaches was 45.6, fourth-best among conferences.

Here's how they stacked up:

9. Frank Beamer, Virginia Tech
19. Paul Johnson, Georgia Tech
27. Dabo Swinney, Clemson
31. Jim Grobe, Wake Forest
34. Al Golden, Miami
38. Jimbo Fisher, FSU
45. Mike London, Virginia
49. Tom O'Brien, NC State
53. Larry Fedora, UNC
65. Randy Edsall, Maryland
67. David Cutcliffe, Duke
110. Frank Spaziani, BC

This Nats-Phillies stuff is awesome.

• Kudos to the sports info staff at Georgia Tech, which was honored Monday by the FWAA.
• Former Miami QB Jacory Harris believes things will work out for him in the NFL, Brain Biggane writes in the Palm Beach Post.
• Duke coach David Cutcliffe is a mentor for life to Peyton and Eli Manning, Andrew Jones writes on FoxSportsCarolinas.com.
• Being OK is not good enough, NC State AD Debbie Yow says in an extensive interview with the Raleigh News & Observer's Andrew Westney.
• Blake DeChristopher and other Hokies have taken alternate routes to the NFL, Mike Barber writes in the Richmond Times Dispatch.

2011 overall record: 3-9
2011 conference record: 1-7 (6th, Coastal)
Returning starters: Offense: 9; defense: 8; kicker/punter: 0

Top returners
WR Conner Vernon, WR Brandon Braxton, RT Perry Simmons, RG Laken Tomlinson, C Brian Moore, QB Sean Renfree, DE Justin Foxx, DT Sydney Sarmiento, DE Kenny Anunike, LB Kelby Brown, LB Austin Gamble, CB Ross Cockrell, S Jordon Byas, S Walt Canty

Key losses
WR Donovan Varner, LT Kyle Hill, NG Charlie Hatcher, CB Johnny Williams, S Matt Daniels, PK Will Snyderwine, P Alex King

2011 statistical leaders (* returners)

Rushing: Juwan Thompson* (457 yards)
Passing: Sean Renfree* (2,891 yards)
Receiving: Conner Vernon* (956 yards)
Tackles: Matt Daniels (126)
Sacks: Kenny Anunike* (4)
Interceptions: Matt Daniels (2)

Spring answers

1. Sean Renfree keeps improving: Coach David Cutcliffe has talked about a pro future for Renfree. Getting to pick the brain of Cutcliffe's pupil, Peyton Manning, probably doesn't hurt. Neither does turning in another strong spring, as Renfree returns for his third year as a starter hoping, once again, to help the program take the next step.

2. Offensive line is cohesive: Much of the production from last season's unit is back, and the group will only grow closer with an offseason volunteer trip to Ethiopia, where 11 of Duke's offensive linemen currently are. The unit could help pave the way for a talented incoming running back class, along with returning starter Juwan Thompson.

3. Conner Vernon ready to make plays: Cutcliffe has said it will take playmakers for Duke to take the next step, and he certainly has one in Vernon, who enters 2012 within striking distance of the ACC receiving record. Having an experienced quarterback such as Renfree throwing to him should help him in the pursuit.

Fall questions

1. Will the defense step up? It is Year 2 under coordinator Jim Knowles and his 4-2-5 scheme, and plenty of talent is back. Still, the unit loses safety Matt Daniels and ranked near the bottom of most defensive categories among ACC schools last season.

2. Can the Blue Devils handle this schedule? FIU and Stanford aren't exactly nonconference cupcakes, especially for a school that has traditionally been an ACC bottom-feeder. Time will only tell if those first two games, regardless of outcome, serve the Blue Devils well before jumping into their conference slate.

3. Is this The Year? Duke holds the longest current bowl-less drought, having not played in the postseason since 1994. Three of Duke's nine losses last season came by a combined seven points, perhaps suggesting that the team was closer to breaking through than many would think. There is plenty of returning talent in key spots, but a tough schedule and recent history suggest that it will still take a huge effort for the Blue Devils to extend their season.

David Cutcliffe knows a thing or two about NFL quarterbacks.

The Duke head coach's relationship with Peyton Manning -- and the four-time MVP's recovery from neck surgeries -- has been well-documented. And when looking at his current signal caller, Sean Renfree, Cutcliffe sees pro possibilities for the multi-year starter with a strong senior season.

"Well, the one thing they're going to look at is that ratio of touchdown passes to interceptions, which is just a production number. That's why it carries such weight in that quarterback rating. And it's about production," Cutcliffe said. "So I think he's got to handle that. He's got to handle pressure. He's got to do the things that at times have been a problem for us. Is he a pro prospect? Definitely. I think he will get drafted. To what level depends upon this year.

"But good gosh, what a worker, what a great mind. He's got a tremendous arm. He's very, very accurate, and he's -- you just can't believe the work he's putting in right now on his own. He is a very dedicated youngster, and I'm excited about his summer and what he plans to do this summer."

Renfree enters 2012 with two years of starting experience under his belt, having completed better than 65 percent of his passes for 6,352 yards with 31 touchdowns and 30 picks.

The Blue Devils have not had a player drafted since 2004, when the Giants took tackle Drew Strojny in the seventh round. They have not had a quarterback drafted since 1989, when the Packers selected Anthony Dilweg in the third round. (The Giants took Dave Brown in the 1992 supplemental draft.)

Manning was a regular in Durham, N.C., last fall as he readied for his 2012 return with Cutcliffe, his quarterbacks coach and offensive coordinator nearly two decades ago at Tennessee. And Cutcliffe thinks the presence of an NFL great rubbed off on his current signal caller.

"Yes. No. 1, having all this Peyton film available to him to study," Cutcliffe said. "I put Peyton through thousands of drills, and we've got all of that on tape, and he looks at Peyton's movements, his footwork, his habits. That's a huge resource, even with Peyton gone. During Peyton's time here, Peyton was good enough to share with those guys, to talk to them about habits just playing quarterback. He was great with [Duke offensive coordinator/quarterbacks coach] Kurt Roper. Peyton spent time with him.

"It's immeasurable, but it's continued because of the resource. And now Sean has really studied it and sees some of the things that you try to tell him would make a difference, and now he can see it because I have all of this drill tape of Peyton right here, which is just an unbelievable resource for a young quarterback."

Our series continues today with the Blue Devils -- another team with experience at the quarterback position, and a team that will likely use up to three in games this coming season. That's OK, we like the challenge of finding someone else. (In this case, we don't have to look too far.)

For a complete recap of the series, click here.

Duke: WR Conner Vernon

2011 stats: Vernon caught 70 passes for 965 yards and five touchdowns, making him the only player in ACC history with multiple 70-catch seasons (he caught 73 passes for 973 yards in 2010). The 6-foot-1, 195-pound Miami native has recorded 900-plus receiving yards in consecutive seasons after a 746-yard freshman campaign in 2009.

What he means to the Blue Devils: Coach David Cutcliffe has said that good won't be good enough against this year's challenging schedule, adding that Duke will need playmakers if it wants to be above-average. His team has one in Vernon. An ankle injury sidelined the receiver this spring, but he should be full-go come the fall, and that's good news for the Blue Devils, who are looking to break through and reach a bowl game for the first time since the 1994 season, the longest current drought among FBS schools. Vernon enters his senior year 34 catches shy of the ACC career record for catches, which is held by Clemson's Aaron Kelly (232 from 2005-08). His 2,675 career receiving yards are 842 shy of matching FSU's Peter Warrick's ACC record (3,517, 1996-99). With a quarterback with two years of starting experience under his belt in Sean Renfree, Vernon should have plenty of opportunities to make big plays.

A tip of the cap to Pat Summitt ...

• Dabo Swinney hopes an ACC title leads to more for Clemson, Wayne Staats writes in the Augusta Chronicle.
• A QB controversy at FSU? No chance, says the Orlando Sentinel's Coley Harvey.
• Georgia Tech is making tweaks to its defense, Ken Sugiura writes in the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.
• David Cutcliffe likes QBs so much that he'll use three this fall at Duke, W.E. Warnock writes in the Raleigh News & Observer.
• Virginia Tech's secondary shuffle appears to be working out, Andy Bitter writes in The Virginian-Pilot.

Ryan McGee has a great story in the latest issue of ESPN The Magazine looking at how David Cutcliffe and the Durham, N.C., area played a strong role in Peyton Manning's recovery from a lost 2011 season.

Manning, of course, committed to Cutcliffe and Tennessee nearly two decades ago, when the Duke coach was the Volunteers' quarterbacks coach and offensive coordinator. The two have remained close over the years, and the Blue Devils' fenced-in practice facility became a lab of sorts for Manning and his NFL friends to help the four-time MVP recover from neck surgery.

Durham was, essentially, the city Manning inhabited.

As always, he found that center with Cutcliffe. Manning made the first of more than half a dozen visits to Durham just days after having neck surgery on Sept. 9, 2011, his fourth and final operation. He came to see Cutcliffe with rehab orders from his Indianapolis doctors in one hand and a football in the other. His old coach started building a plan to get him back on track.

Cutcliffe had assumed that, like most athletes facing their first serious injury, Manning would be tentative, throwing timidly out of fear of reinjury. But reality turned out to be the total opposite -- which was just as bad. The NFL season was starting without him for the first time in 14 years, and Manning came out gunning like a man who thought he could will his way back into the lineup within a couple of weeks. The result was a spaghetti pile of a throwing motion, the mechanics of a man in a hurry. "Almost immediately I started at zero," says Cutcliffe. "I said, 'Let's stop working on getting back and start working on getting healthy.' And the first step of that process was to get back in touch with his natural throwing motion."

Manning's body was way out in front of his arm, forcing his throws to catch up to his chest and legs instead of pushing through with them. For reference, Cutcliffe dug through the mountain of film he's kept on Manning over the years, much of which Manning had emailed to him each offseason with a note: "Hey, Coach, what do you think?"

The complete story is available here.

Tyree Watkins has been dismissed from the Duke football team for "conduct unbecoming of a member of the program," coach David Cutcliffe announced Wednesday.

A junior wide receiver from Camden, N.J., Watkins had 24 catches the past three seasons for 152 yards. He played in 28 games.

Watkins caught five passes for 78 yards in the Blue Devils' spring game Saturday.

Duke's spring season will end at 1 p.m. this Saturday, when the Blue Devils take the field at Wallace Wade Stadium for their spring game. I caught up with coach David Cutcliffe over the phone earlier this week to talk about injuries, expectations and the next step for the program.

What would count as a successful spring for you guys, and how close do you think you are to that with just a few days left?

David Cutcliffe: We've had an unusual spring. We've had a lot of starters that have missed the entire spring. So it put us in a little different light. Brian Moore, Conner Vernon, Braxton Deaver, Kenny Anunike, Jordan DeWalt-Ondijo, Kelby Brown, August Campbell, all guys that were returning starters. Desmond Scott on offense. So they've miss the entire spring and it's been difficult in that regard. So what was successful was to go out and kind of think players. Not plays, not systems. And see if we could go from kind of Point A to B with a lot of younger players and some of our more experienced players that are out there just being able to go to another level. So kind of really evaluated our team by evaluating individuals. So to this point I would tell you we've had a very successful spring in that regard. I think we've made more improvement with more players than any spring since we've had since we've been here. Hopefully when we get everybody available that computes to a much better football team, because with our schedule, Matt, it's going to take that.

That was going to get to my next point. Injuries aside, you obviously return a lot of starters. How important was it to build depth this spring and how much did you learn about some of those younger guys?

DC: I think it's been good. Right now we've got a good football team. And what we have learned here, at this point, we've been really, pretty good here. The record hasn't indicated anything. We've played a lot of good football. So there's another level we're hunting, and that's the next step for Duke football. Everybody asks you all the time: When is it going to come through? Well it already kind of has come through. This is a good team, now you just got to go win games, and that sounds simple, but that's about how simple it is.

You've said before publicly that good isn't good enough. What will it take for Duke to make the next step?

DC: I think that where you get into making critical plays. We need maybe some great playmakers that can do that to that level on a consistent basis, if you think about the teams winning in our league, there's a number of great playmakers. You just take the two teams that played for the championship. They had guys, both of them, had guys that just made great plays at critical times in critical opportunities, and they did it time and time again. We played Virginia Tech. We know at quarterback and at running back and [Jarrett] Boykin at receiver, and there were defensive players that made those critical plays. And you certainly look at Clemson, and they had the most playmakers in the league. And I think we've made great strides there in the recruiting parts of things and for us to go from being just a good team, we've got to have guys make some great plays for us at critical times that win games, and we haven't had enough of that, quite frankly. I think we have more of those guys and we're more equipped -- I don't think it, I know we're more equipped than we've ever been. I'm really excited and looking forward to seeing this team play.

Sean Renfree, Conner Vernon -- you have a lot of skill players returning. How high offensively do you set the bar?

DC: I would expect us to play very high. All of our backs have played. We have three quarterbacks that have played a lot. Not many people have that — certainly a starter in Sean Renfree that's very, very experienced. But [Anthony] Boone and [Brandon] Connette are as well. With Conner Vernon and Jamison Crowder and Blair Holliday, it allowed us to move Brandon Braxton to safety. But all of our receivers have played, and played well. Deaver at tight end, and we get him back. But we've got some young tight ends that are exciting, that have made plays all spring. I think our weapons are far deeper, and I think the beauty of all that is our line is kind of maturing at the same time those other guys are maturing. So I look for us to be much better offensively in production.

What did you take away from the scrimmage this past weekend?

DC: Again, thinking players, we had on both sides of the ball some huge plays made. Walt Canty in the secondary, [Lee] Butler and [Ross] Cockrell, people that have played again. Jordon Byas is playing the best football. Our secondary made some big plays. Up front Jamal Bruce and Dezmond Johnson and Sydney Sarmiento, and guys made big plays in the game. And then on offense just about everybody got in on the look. All the quarterbacks. Renfree had a big day, but David Reeves and Issac Blakeney, these young tight ends. Then Holliday, Crowder, Tyree Watkins -- just the people we had available to us made huge plays. And then our backs. Having Josh Snead back healthy, and Juwan Thompson, those two really got your attention Saturday. So I just felt good about the number of people that were contributing, and it was pretty well-played on both sides of the ball.

What would a bowl game mean for your players?

DC: There's no question that's part of the goal. What it would mean for me is not just these players but there's some vindication for the amount of work that's gone in to what we've done here with all the players that we've had in recent times. And certainly this staff, who, they're very close to each other. And this is an exceptional staff. All of the staff and the families, and then certainly the people, the fans of Duke football that have endured a long drought. It's a big deal, and it should be a big deal around here. And I don't think an average team with this schedule can be a bowl team. We can't be average; we've go to be well above average. You've got the schedule, you know what I'm saying is accurate. I'm not making an excuse, I'm just stating a fact: We're not going to be good enough if we're average.

How do you tell your players that? How do you get them to buy into that and know that it will take more than a typical performance from them this season?

DC: I've told them that. All I had to do was kind of just put the schedule, and just start writing up on the board and tell them that a lot of lesser people than them would crumble under this. You start looking at, we're playing Clemson, Florida State, not to leave anybody out. Miami and Florida State are two of the more talented teams in the country every year. Stanford. North Carolina's been as talented as anybody I know of in the country the last few years. Virginia Tech, Virginia. I could go on. Opening up with an FIU team that's a bowl team the last two years, all kinds of talent on that team. South Florida talent. We've got a lot of people that have played a lot of football. They know what's in front of them. And you've got to push and strive and do what you got to do to get past it. And I think this team is really looking forward to that challenge. Rather than worrying about it, I think they're looking forward to the opportunity that exists with it.

It's a perfect day for practice ...

• Maryland's president gave a vote of confidence to AD Kevin Anderson, but wasn't so convincing when speaking about coach Randy Edsall.
• Athlon says BC coach Frank Spaziani has the hottest seat in the country this year.
• Clemson's decision to keep The Citadel on the schedule the week before the South Carolina game in 2013 marks a change in the program's scheduling philosophy.
• David Glenn caught up with Duke coach David Cutcliffe recently and got his take on the Mannings and more.
• Florida State coach Jimbo Fisher and his family continue to raise money and awareness for Fanconi anemia research.
• Virginia Tech quarterbacks coach Mike O'Cain analyzed his play-calling for Andy Bitter.
• Georgia Tech will hire a coach from the CFL to be its special teams coordinator -- a good move for Paul Johnson.
• If the Hokies are good enough, the way their schedule sets up shouldn't matter, writes David Teel.

The outside perception of Duke football seems to hinge on whether coach David Cutcliffe will ever get the Blue Devils back to a bowl game.

For Cutcliffe, though, the picture is bigger, the goal more challenging than simply reaching that seemingly elusive six-win mark.

“Our whole emphasis is about getting there and consistently staying there,” Cutcliffe said. “That’s the change we’re looking for. It’s never been about that magic year for me. It’s about knowing we have a damn good program.

“Don’t think Duke is a flash in the pan,” he said. “Instead of losing to Virginia Tech by four, win by three. Instead of losing to Wake by one, win by 10. Then we’ll know Duke has changed.”

Will 2012 be the start of the turnaround?

As Cutcliffe prepares to enter his fifth season, more should be expected. Duke returns 41 players who have played significant snaps on both offense and defense, not just special teams. The primary ball carriers return, along with a three-year starting quarterback in Sean Renfree, and one of the league’s top receivers in Conner Vernon. The offensive line should be more athletic, and the defense still young but more experienced. Duke also recruited several players who could contribute immediately.

Although the team has progressed under Cutcliffe’s watch during each of the past four seasons, Duke has still failed to reach the six-win mark, coming as close as five wins in 2009, and settling back into the Duke stereotype with back-to-back 3-9 finishes each of the past two seasons. While fans tend to zero in on the final results, the players and coaches continue to believe the process is inching them closer to long-term success.

“It shows out there,” Vernon said. “I’m sure you can ask any team in the ACC that it’s shown, and it’s something that they can’t take Duke for granted anymore. Even though the win-loss column may not show it, you can tell teams are respecting Duke a lot more. It’s only going to get better.”

Cutcliffe has told them, though, that it has to be better than good. He said he still has concerns about his players being physical enough up front on defense, and being able to limit the big plays on defense while at the same time creating explosive plays on offense.

“We were a good team a year ago with a bad record,” Cutcliffe said. “We have to be better than good, because we’ve got Clemson and Florida State from the other side, which are obviously two of the more talented teams in this league. We’ve got Miami, we’ve got North Carolina. We’ve got Virginia Tech, Stanford. I could go on and on. We’re playing a really vicious schedule. That’s just part of the equation. You’ve got to play beyond good.”

It seems to be the fans need convincing more than the players. On paper, Duke still looks like Duke: 115th in the country in rushing offense, No. 108 in turnover margin, No. 93 in scoring offense and No. 90 in scoring defense.

There’s no shortage of motivation in Durham, but it goes beyond the numbers.

“If they know they’ve paid the price, if they know they’re prepared, they’ll believe,” Cutcliffe said. “Everybody kind of loses sight of what motivating people is. Motivating people, giving them confidence, is to make them earn it themselves. If they have invested enough into it, they’ll come out with fire. I think we’re already becoming believers. … We’ve got to go from believing to knowing we can win.”

When they finally do, then Duke fans will know things have changed.

A few quick thoughts on the 2012 ACC schedule that was released today:

ATLANTIC DIVISION

• If Florida State is really going to make a run at the Atlantic Division title this year, we'll know by the end of September, as it has to face Wake Forest and Clemson in back-to-back weekends. The Thursday night game at Virginia Tech will be the toughest ACC game on the schedule, and it should be one of the best three games of the conference season.


• This is another challenging schedule for Wake Forest, which has to face UNC in Week 2, a road trip to FSU in Week 3, a Thursday night game against Clemson, and a road trip to Notre Dame. The Deacs surprised us last season, but they're going to have to be a better team this season to do it again with this schedule.
• When looking at it on paper, it looks like it's going to be tough for Boston College to get to a bowl game. Aside from Maine, not seeing any "givens" there.
• Clemson has the bye week heading into the Virginia Tech game, while the Hokies get no break. It's not an easy schedule, but the Tigers will have home field advantage for their toughest league games (with the exception of Florida State), and South Carolina.
• Don't overlook the road trip to Temple, Maryland. Remember last year? The Terps could go 1-3 in their nonconference schedule, though Randy Edsall might be a little bit more motivated against Connecticut.
• This is a very manageable nonconference schedule for Tom O'Brien and NC State (again). There's no reason the Pack's bowl hopes should come down to the wire like they did in 2011. Officially, though, NC State still needs seven wins to become bowl eligible, because it plays two FCS teams.

COASTAL DIVISION

• Good luck, Virginia. Not only do the Hoos have to replace seven starters on defense, but they've got Penn State in Week 2, followed by back-to-back trips to Georgia Tech and TCU. That's a tough September.
• I'll say the same thing I said last year ... If Duke can go 3-1 in its nonconference schedule, it can go bowling. And you'd think Duke could beat FIU, NC Central and Memphis in Year 5 under David Cutcliffe.
• Three September ACC games -- all against Coastal Division opponents -- will tell us a lot about Georgia Tech early. The Jackets get a favorable cross-divisional schedule, though, with Maryland and BC.
• Yikes, Miami. Three road trips in four weeks to start the season? Including two league games and a trip to Kansas State? And an October date with Notre Dame in Chicago? That's like a scheduling bowl ban.
• Take advantage of this one, Larry Fedora. North Carolina has a relatively soft September, but a road trip to Louisville shouldn't be taken lightly. The Tar Heels have the Hokies, NC State and Georgia Tech at home. It could set up for a surprise season for Fedora.
• Virginia Tech's overall schedule strength is a bit of an upgrade from last year, and the Labor Day opener against Georgia Tech will be must-see TV. The road trip to Pitt will be a sneak peak at ACC expansion, but it will be the back-to-back Thursday night games against Miami and FSU that will determine whether or not the Hokies return to Charlotte.