AFC East: Miami Dolphins

Last weekend, we wrote an interesting column on setting Year 2 expectations for Miami Dolphins quarterback Ryan Tannehill. Miami spent a lot of money and resources to boost the roster this year. However, the Dolphins will only go as far as Tannehill takes them.

To further the topic, I took the conversation to Twitter to ask Miami fans what kind of numbers they expected from Tannehill in 2013.

Here were some of the responses:

 

 

 

 

 

 

Last year Tannehill had more interceptions (13) than touchdowns (12), and turning that around will be one of the biggest keys to his success. With more weapons such as dynamic receiver Mike Wallace and tight end Dustin Keller, Tannehill has a better chance to succeed in 2013.
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Former New England Patriots, Miami Dolphins and Cincinnati Bengals receiver Chad Johnson is not giving up on his dream to play in the NFL again. Johnson went on ABC’s “Good Morning America” Tuesday to discuss his future and lessons learned in his first media appearance since spending a week in a Florida jail.

Johnson violated probation that stemmed from a domestic dispute with his former wife, Evelyn Lozada. Johnson showed up in court not expecting jail time. But the judge didn’t like the pat on the butt Johnson gave his lawyer and ordered Johnson to serve 30 days. That sentence was reduced to one week after Johnson apologized.

Chances appear slim that Johnson, 35, will get another shot this season. But the best Johnson can do is show that he’s matured and hope for one more call from an NFL team.

AFC East chat preview

June, 18, 2013
Jun 18
3:20
PM ET
The offseason workouts are officially in the books. Let's chat about it.

Join me at 4 p.m. ET Tuesday for our weekly chat on the AFC East. We will discuss all the latest with the Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, New England Patriots and New York Jets. We can also discuss the wildly-popular topic of new Patriots quarterback Tim Tebow. Or we can keep this chat a Tebow-free zone. The choice is yours.

Here is the link. Don’t miss the AFC East party.
The New England Patriots and quarterback Tom Brady dominate the NFL on first down.

The rest of the AFC East? Not so much.

If there was ever one stat to clearly explain the large gap between the Patriots and their three AFC East rivals, it's how all four teams perform on first down. New England was immensely successful in 2012 and led the NFL in first-down offense, while the rest of the division finished no higher than 15th.

It is no secret that success on first down makes it much easier for offenses to convert on second and third downs. The Patriots were able to have success on first down both through the air (2,151 yards) and on the ground (1,198 yards), making New England's offense very tough to defend.

Here are the total yardage numbers on first down according to ESPN Stats and Information:
  • No. 1: Patriots, 3,316 yards

New England’s offense gained 892 yards more on first down than Buffalo, which finished second in the division in first-down yardage. Those yards add up over the course of a season and one reason why New England was the only AFC East team to finish with a winning record.

The Patriots were very balanced on first down. New England called 277 pass plays and 273 run plays on first down in the regular season, according to ESPN Stats and Info, which made its offense unpredictable. The Patriots also were sacked just five times on first down all last season, which kept the offense out of bad spots.

Not surprisingly, New England led the NFL in total offense in 2012. The Patriots made a lot of changes at wide receiver and have injury concerns at tight end entering this season. But it’s clear that play calling under offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels is not a concern.
Here are the most interesting stories Tuesday in the AFC East: Morning take: First-round picks Dee Milliner, Sheldon Richardson and second-rounder Geno Smith are not under contract. But there’s little reason to panic with the rookie wage scale. Things will work out.
  • Buffalo Bills general manager Doug Whaley says cornerback Stephon Gilmore is ready to make the jump in Year 2.
Morning take: Gilmore played better as his rookie season went on. He’s a fearless and competitive player who must step up as Buffalo’s top corner this year.
  • New England Patriots tailback Shane Vereen said the offense “slipped up” in the AFC title game against the Baltimore Ravens.
Morning take: New England only scored 13 points in its last game of the season. It’s the playoffs and it happens. This is why the Patriots’ defense must improve to pick up the team if the offense has a bad game.
  • Will Miami Dolphins rookie kicker Caleb Sturgis unseat veteran Dan Carpenter in training camp?
Morning take: You have to assume Miami drafted Sturgis for that reason. Carpenter struggled last season and is being paid about four times more than Sturgis this season. It makes sense for Miami to go with the rookie if it’s a close race.
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It turns out former New England Patriots and Miami Dolphins wide receiver Chad Johnson only spent one week in a Florida jail. He had his month-long sentence reduced Monday after issuing an apology to the judge, who felt Johnson’s pat on the butt to his lawyer was a sign he wasn’t taking his court appearance seriously.

Johnson stayed out of legal trouble most of his career but has suddenly fallen on hard times in the past year. He got into a domestic dispute with his former wife, Evelyn Lozada, which led to a divorce and probation. Johnson also violated that probation, which led to a police warrant for his arrest, his infamous court appearance and a subsequent jail sentence.

There's a very good chance that Johnson may never see an NFL field again. He’s a 35-year-old wide receiver past his prime, and many NFL executives view him as immature and a potential headache. Johnson did nothing to dispel those labels during his recent court appearance.

But this is about more than football for Johnson. Hopefully, he learned a life lesson that playtime is over. It's time for Johnson to grow up and be more responsible.
The New England Patriots rocked the football world last week when they signed immensely popular quarterback Tim Tebow to a two-year contract. But one of the underrated aspects of the signing is Tebow has no guaranteed money, and New England can cut the quarterback without penalty.

With that said, we ran an AFC East poll last Friday on whether Tebow will make New England’s 53-man roster. The results were overwhelming. After more than 7,000 votes, nearly 70 percent of our AFC East community predicts Tebow is good enough to make the Patriots’ final roster.

It would be an interesting turnaround for Tebow. Just last week he was a player on the scrap heap that nobody wanted. Not even the talent-deprived New York Jets, who are rebuilding and need all the talent they can get, wanted nothing to do with Tebow on their roster. However, Tebow has a solid chance to make the 53-man roster of the Patriots, the reigning AFC East champs.

New England did not carry a third quarterback last season. The Patriots went with future Hall of Fame quarterback Tom Brady and young backup Ryan Mallett, while they used the extra roster spot on another position.

However, a versatile player like Tebow could contribute in a lot of different ways. In addition to being a third quarterback, Tebow also can fill in at H-back, tight end and special teams. Tebow also is adept at running the Wildcat package, although it probably would be unwise for New England to take Brady off the field for any amount of plays.

Can Dion Jordan make up ground?

June, 17, 2013
Jun 17
11:00
AM ET
The Miami Dolphins put in a lot of work to improve this offseason. I attended most of Miami's sessions open to the media and saw progress made in several areas.

However, the one player the Dolphins couldn’t get their hands on this offseason was No. 3 overall pick Dion Jordan. The rookie defensive end was the only Dolphins player who was absent from both organized team activities and mandatory minicamp.

Jordan could not attend Miami’s practices because of the University of Oregon’s quarter system. School was still in session as recently as last week for finals. Therefore, by rule, Jordan could not be in Miami working with the team.

"Hopefully it's for guys to graduate college,” Dolphins head coach Joe Philbin said about the rule last week. “Again, I wasn't part of any of them, and nobody has asked my opinion on them, but I hope it's because we want young men to get their education. That would be great. And everybody abides by the rule, so I am fine with it. At the end of the day, we plan on having that player [Jordan] for a long time, and we'll get through that."

Jordan also is recovering from shoulder surgery in February. So he most likely would have been limited in practice. But the Dolphins could have at least got a peek of gifted player they drafted this spring.

How Miami plans to use Jordan remains mostly a mystery. It appears the Dolphins want Jordan to compete with 2012 third-round pick Olivier Vernon for the starting defensive end spot. Last year’s starter, Jared Odrick, has played mostly at defensive tackle and may be moving there full-time in 2013. Philbin also hinted this spring that it’s possible Jordan can see some time at outside linebacker, particularly on passing downs.

Jordan is expected to be close to 100 percent by training camp, and Miami has to hope he is a quick learner. Jordan missed a lot of valuable reps in organized team activities and minicamp and must make up ground to earn an immediate role in Miami's defense.
Here are the most interesting stories Monday in the AFC East:
  • Buffalo Bills rookie quarterback EJ Manuel plans to continue to work hard during this off time before training camp.
Morning take: Manuel is behind veteran Kevin Kolb in the quarterback race. The rookie will have to do all he can to master Buffalo’s offense and put in the work before he returns to the Bills on July 28.
  • Denver Broncos receiver Wes Welker will be out for revenge in Week 12 against the New England Patriots.
Morning take: This should be a marquee game in the AFC late in the season. But there’s a lot of football to play before both teams get to that point.
  • New Miami Dolphins right tackle Tyson Clabo is trying to get acquainted to his new team.
Morning take: Clabo was released by the Atlanta Falcons this offseason, which opened the door for Miami. The Dolphins needed an offensive tackle, and Clabo has plenty of starting experience.
Morning take: Ryan is in a must-win year and being extra aggressive is one of the few ways he can try to save his job. But talent is the biggest issue, and the Jets can't fix that in one season.
Ryan TannehillAP Photo/Wilfredo LeeRyan Tannehill hopes to be the next quarterback from the 2012 class to lead his team to the playoffs.
DAVIE, Fla. -- NFL Hall of Fame quarterback Dan Marino showed up to Miami Dolphins' minicamp on Wednesday. There was no major announcement or holding court with the media. Marino simply arrived, kept close tabs on second-year quarterback Ryan Tannehill and the offense, then quietly left about two hours into practice.

Marino's mere presence was symbolic of the pressure Tannehill faces in Miami. No Dolphins quarterback has come close to filling the large shoes of Marino after he retired after the 1999 season. Miami’s quarterbacks in this millennium have either been awful (Cleo Lemon, Joey Harrington), former draft busts (Chad Henne, John Beck) or caretakers who couldn’t consistently take over games (Chad Pennington, Jay Fiedler).

But something appears different about Tannehill. He is more Marino than Harrington in arm strength and physical ability. The 2012 first-round pick was also taken higher than Henne, but you don’t get that same feeling of bust potential. Unlike Fiedler, Tannehill has already demonstrated that he can take over a game and explode for 400 yards, as he did in September in an overtime loss to the Arizona Cardinals.

But what are realistic expectations for Tannehill in Year 2? Fellow rookies Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III and Russell Wilson each led their teams to the playoffs last season. Tannehill showed promise but was a couple of notches behind his peers. He threw for 3,294 yards but had more interceptions (13) than touchdowns (12). Tannehill also had a losing record (7-9) and was left on the outside looking in during the postseason.

However, the Dolphins are showing the same confidence in Tannehill that the Indianapolis Colts are showing with Luck or the Washington Redskins are with RG III. More than anything, Miami’s coaching staff said, they love Tannehill’s work ethic and mental approach. Combine that with Tannehill’s athleticism and ability to make all the throws, and the Dolphins believe the sky is the limit for their young quarterback.

“One thing about Ryan is he never gets too high and he never gets too low,” Miami quarterbacks coach Zac Taylor told the AFC East blog this week. “Last year things never got too big for him. It’s not that he never made mistakes -- there were drives and stretches here and there. But I don’t think it ever got too big where he totally broke down, and that’s encouraging for a rookie quarterback. With all the looks that he saw, I thought he handled it pretty well.”

Taylor was a former assistant coach at Texas A&M and has been around Tannehill since he was 19. Taylor watched Tannehill, 24, grow from a redshirt freshman who played receiver his first two years in college to an NFL quarterback with high expectations. According to Taylor, Tannehill is much more comfortable in his position as a building block in Miami.

It was noticeable in organized team activities and minicamp that Tannehill is in control of the offense. He’s more vocal with teammates and has a quiet confidence that this is his team.

Miami is in search of leaders after several veterans like Reggie Bush, Karlos Dansby and Kevin Burnett were released or didn’t return in free agency. Tannehill is one of the young, inexperienced players who must fill that void.

“It’s night and day compared to last year,” Tannehill said of his standing on the team. “Just the confidence and the knowledge of the game and what is going on. I still have a lot of work to do, but I am comfortable with where I am at and where this team is at. Anything we can do to get better, myself included, it’s easier to build this year compared to last year.”

[+] EnlargeMike Wallace
AP Photo/J Pat CarterThe Dolphins opened up their wallet to bolster their offense, including giving Mike Wallace a five-year, $60 million deal.
Tannehill has all the tools to succeed this year. The Dolphins have put together as nurturing an environment as possible to ensure Tannehill takes the next step in his development. Miami spent $60 million to land free-agent receiver Mike Wallace and an additional $15 million total to land starting tight end Dustin Keller and slot receiver Brandon Gibson. Tannehill now has deep speed at receiver and a safety valve at tight end that he lacked last season. The Dolphins were 26th in passing in 2012 and scored only 18 points per game.

If minicamp is any indication, the Dolphins will not be afraid to air it out this year. Tannehill is taking his shots deep and throwing the football all over the field in practices. Tannehill is also routinely making more checks and changes at the line of scrimmage to get out of bad plays, an area where he struggled in 2012.

“He can see a safety start to creep up or lean a certain way, or a linebacker's depth from the line of scrimmage from the heels of his defensive lineman,” Dolphins offensive coordinator Mike Sherman said. “Determining whether we turn and protect there or do we go the other way because that guy is in coverage, which I think [is] more recognition of defenses. ... We threw the book at him last year in the hopes that he would get to a point where we are at right now, where now he is just focused and not so much on the offense but on the defense.”

It also doesn’t hurt that Sherman and Dolphins head coach Joe Philbin know what a talented quarterback looks like. They have coached future Hall of Famers Brett Favre (Sherman) and Aaron Rodgers (Philbin) during their stints with the Green Bay Packers and know how to make it easy for quarterbacks. The fact that they both view Tannehill as a franchise starter carries a lot of weight.

“They’re able to relate those experiences with Ryan and the struggles [Favre and Rodgers] had and the success they were eventually able to achieve,” Taylor said. “So they’ve kind of seen the step-by-step process those guys took and [are] able to use that to relate it to Ryan.”

The Dolphins are going all-in with Tannehill, and much is expected this season. On paper, Miami looks like a team ready to make a playoff push in 2013, and much of that will come down to Tannehill’s development and improvement.

Tannehill may not get the same press and national attention as other quarterbacks in his draft class, but his goals are the same.

“Ryan wants to win Super Bowls at the end of the day,” Taylor said. “I do think he has a long ways to go right now. He knows that. So every day he’s just trying to become a better player, and be better than the day before and don’t make the same mistake twice.

“What that ceiling is, it’s hard to predict. Time will tell.”

Bills sign rookie QB EJ Manuel

June, 14, 2013
Jun 14
1:42
PM ET
The Buffalo Bills have signed first-round quarterback EJ Manuel to a five-year contract, the team announced. Manuel was the No. 16 overall pick of the Bills last April.

Manuel was the final unsigned draft pick for the Bills. Buffalo now has its entire 2013 draft class under contract before the team takes about a six-week break before training camp.

Manuel will compete with veteran Kevin Kolb for the starting quarterback job in Buffalo this summer. Kolb is the favorite in the short term, but the Bills expect Manuel to eventually become the long-term solution.

In other draft-related news, the Miami Dolphins also signed third-round pick and offensive lineman Dallas Thomas to a four-year contract Friday.
» NFC Eight in the Box: East | West | North | South » AFC: East | West | North | South

The major question facing each team in the AFC East as summer break looms.

Buffalo Bills: By all accounts, the Bills had a productive minicamp. But a huge question remains about the future of Pro Bowl safety Jairus Byrd. He was a no-show this week in a clear display of displeasure over receiving the franchise tag. Byrd also skipped all organized team activities and has yet to sign the tag. Because of his refusal to sign, the Bills could not fine him for skipping mandatory minicamp. The Bills have plenty of cap room and Byrd is one of their core players entering his prime, so it makes sense for both sides to reach an agreement. However, time is running out, as training camp is coming up at the end of July.

Miami Dolphins: I’ve spent a lot of time at Miami’s practice facility for the past month during minicamp and OTAs. The Dolphins met my expectations in improving their passing game and defensive playmaking, but here is a question I didn’t get answered: Is the running game better in 2013? Miami lost tailback Reggie Bush in free agency, and I thought I would see more big plays from running backs Lamar Miller, Daniel Thomas and rookie Mike Gillislee. However, they were rather pedestrian this week. That being said, Miami’s run defense is stout and players aren’t practicing in pads, so it’s hard to gauge fully the progress of the running game until there’s live hitting in training camp.

New England Patriots: The wide receiver position is still a work in progress. Outside of free-agent pickup Danny Amendola, New England still hasn’t figured out its No. 2 and No. 3 receivers. These are important positions for the Patriots, who led the NFL in total offense in 2012 but lost Pro Bowl receiver Wes Welker and veteran Brandon Lloyd. Unproven veterans, such as receivers Donald Jones, Michael Jenkins and Lavelle Hawkins, are competing with rookies Aaron Dobson and Josh Boyce. It will take a full training camp to pick the best two or three options from this group. Also, the Patriots need Amendola to play all 16 games this season, which is a risky proposition. I fully expect New England’s passing game to take a step backward in 2013. The receivers aren’t as talented, and tight ends Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez have injury concerns.

New York Jets: Can the Jets win this season with Mark Sanchez as the starter? It’s early, but it appears New York is heading in that direction. Sanchez relied on his experience to win the quarterback battle this week in minicamp over rookie second-round pick Geno Smith. Heading into training camp, Sanchez is the favorite to win the starting job in Week 1. New York already is discussing whether to implement a read-option offense for Smith, which would get him involved in the game even if he’s not the starter. All in all, there are not a lot of reasons to be confident in New York’s offense this season. Sanchez is winning a lukewarm quarterback battle but must improve from the last two seasons.

NFL video chat preview

June, 14, 2013
Jun 14
11:00
AM ET
We have a video chat extravaganza coming up this afternoon at 1 p.m. ET. I will join NFC East blogger Dan Graziano and NFC West blogger Mike Sando to discuss a variety of topics around the NFL.

Here is the link to join the party via Spreecast.

We can even discuss Tim Tebow's signing with the New England Patriots if you like, or we can keep it a Tebow-free zone. The choice is yours. But do not miss out on all the fun.
Here are the most interesting stories Friday in the AFC East:
  • According to USA Today, receiver Mike Wallace turned down a $76 million contract offer from the Minnesota Vikings to play for the Miami Dolphins.
Morning take: The Dolphins still paid Wallace $60 million, but I think it shows that Wallace wasn’t only thinking dollar signs when he chose Miami. He wanted to play for an up-and-coming team.
Morning take: This is a solid ranking for “Gronk,” but injuries probably kept him from landing a little higher. Gronkowski, who’s had offseason back and arm issues, must stay healthy for the Patriots this season.
Morning take: It’s been an up-and-down spring for Smith, which is to be expected. But the second-round draft pick is falling behind in the quarterback competition with Mark Sanchez and needs to do more in training camp to make up ground.
  • The starting left guard position for the Buffalo Bills is now a two-man race between Colin Brown and Doug Legursky.
Morning take: Brown has a head start on Legursky, who just arrived. But Legursky does have playoff and Super Bowl experience from his time with the Pittsburgh Steelers. The spot was left open after the exit of Andy Levitre via free agency.
The 2013 mandatory minicamps are in the books in the AFC East. The Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, New England Patriots and New York Jets all wrapped up their three-day sessions on Thursday. The Patriots, in fact, cancelled their third and final practice as a reward for the team’s hard work.

But there were several interesting developments throughout the division this week. Here are four things we learned during AFC East minicamps:

No. 1: Jets QB Mark Sanchez has a slight edge

Analysis: The Jets' quarterback job is there for the taking. Incumbent veteran Mark Sanchez led the NFL in turnovers the past two years, but he is doing enough for now to hold off rookie second-round pick Geno Smith, who still has a lot to learn. Smith’s inexperience in the NFL and running a West Coast offense continued to show this week in minicamp. He’s going to have to do extra to supplant Sanchez, who now enters training camp as the favorite to win the quarterback job and start in Week 1.

No. 2: Tim Tebow’s role still up in the air

Analysis: Tebow-mania made its New England debut this week with plenty of media in Foxborough. However, Patriots coach Bill Belichick remained tight-lipped on how the team plans to use Tebow this season. Is Tebow simply a third-string quarterback? Will New England insert a Wildcat package for Tebow and take Hall of Fame quarterback Tom Brady off the field? Can Tebow play another position for New England, such as tight end, running back or special teams? The Patriots did not answer any of these questions this week. Expect plenty of speculation and debate on Tebow until training camp.

No. 3: Dolphins’ defense has improved

Analysis: The Dolphins spent a lot of money and resources to upgrade the defense. Miami signed free agents Dannell Ellerbe and Philip Wheeler to upgrade the linebacking corps and cornerback Brent Grimes to fix the pass defense. The Dolphins also drafted defensive end Dion Jordan No. 3 overall to fix the pass rush. It was evident in minicamp this week that this is an improved defense with much more speed and the ability to force turnovers. For example, Miami’s defense had four interceptions on Wednesday, including two against Dolphins starting quarterback Ryan Tannehill. The Dolphins are already good at stopping the run. If they can rush the passer and force turnovers, this will be a tough defense to handle in 2013.

No. 4: Bills’ offense still work in progress

Analysis: Buffalo’s offense struggled this week, and particularly the passing game. Quarterbacks Kevin Kolb and EJ Manuel did not perform well against the various and complex blitz packages of new defensive coordinator Mike Pettine. The pass protection also was shaky. Pettine is bringing the same formula that’s worked for the Jets the past several years, and Buffalo’s defense certainly had the advantage this week. New Bills offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett has about a month to fix some of their issues from minicamp.
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