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Yes, the start of training camps is two months away, but it’s never too early to consider the coming season. A look at the best-case and worst-case scenarios for the Patriots in 2012.

Dream scenario (15-1): The Patriots take advantage of the easiest strength of schedule in the NFL on their way to home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. Barring injury, it's hard not to see New England winning at least 11 or 12 games this year. Note the dream scenario is 15-1, not 16-0. The pressure of going into the playoffs undefeated is immense. New England found out the hard way after the 2007 season, when they came up just short in the Super Bowl against the New York Giants. It would be easier for New England to get that loss out of the way early so the pressure of a perfect season won't be on their shoulders late in the year. The AFC East looks ripe for the Patriots once again. They went 5-1 against the division in 2011, which is key to winning the AFC East and vying for home-field advantage in the AFC.

Nightmare scenario (9-7): Is 9-7 really a nightmare? Not for most teams. But it's Super Bowl or bust for New England, and a nine-win season with the chance to miss the playoffs is probably the worst this team could do considering its talent and easy schedule. Significant injuries are the only thing I can see derailing the Patriots from another playoff run. Quarterback Tom Brady suffered a season-ending knee injury in 2008 and New England still finished 11-5. But this is a different team, especially on defense. A significant injury to Brady, especially early in the season, would be a nightmare and make the Patriots an ordinary team again. I'm not convinced this team is good enough, especially defensively, to hold up like it did a few years ago without its future Hall of Fame quarterback. Also, who knows if Ryan Mallett or Brian Hoyer is good enough to lead the charge? Maybe in time, but the Patriots don't want to find out next season.

Here are the most interesting stories Thursday morning in the AFC East:

• Buffalo Bills quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick is off and running with quarterbacks coach David Lee.

Morning take: Mechanics have been the offseason focus. Fitzpatrick threw a lot of interceptions last year, and some of that was attributed to rushing and bad fundamentals.

• Miami Dolphins left tackle Jake Long checked in at No. 59 in the NFL top 100.

Morning take: Long is the first Dolphin to make the list. I can't imagine another Miami player ranked ahead of Long, because he is clearly the best player on the team.

• The New England Patriots brought in a trio of offensive linemen for tryouts.

Morning take: New England has seen some changes on the offensive line with left tackle Matt Light retiring. The Patriots are turning over every rock to add depth to the group.

• The New York Jets signed free-agent fullback Fui Vakapuna.

Morning take: The Jets have a good fullback in Jon Conner. Vakapuna is a long shot unless the Jets decide to keep two fullbacks, which most likely won't be the case.

On Wednesday ESPN put together an expert panel to determine which team will is poised to dominate in 2015. That is three years and four seasons from now.

Here is how things shaped up in the AFC East:

No 2: New England Patriots

Thoughts: Earlier Wednesday I wrote a column that New England will struggle when Tom Brady retires. Our panel thinks Brady will still be around in 2015 and gave New England a "nine" rating at quarterback. That's debatable. Brady will be 38 years old in 2015. Is Brady still playing football? And if so, is Brady still elite pushing 40? The article also ignores tight end Aaron Hernandez's contract situation. He's a free agent in two years, along with teammate Rob Gronkowski. Hernandez is probably not on New England's roster in 2015 unless the Patriots find a way to make "Gronk" and Hernandez two of the highest-paid players at the same position. That's not likely.

No. 16: New York Jets

Thoughts: The Jets are an interesting team. Like the Patriots, they are built to win now. It’s hard to say where New York will be in four seasons. ESPN's Trent Dilfer says he still loves the talent and potential of quarterback Mark Sanchez, but I disagree. Entering his fourth season, I think Sanchez pretty much is what he is. Of course, Sanchez can play better over the next few years and reduce turnovers. But he’s not a future perennial Pro Bowler in waiting. Pro Bowl cornerback Darrelle Revis will be 30 in 2015. Maybe he’s still the best cornerback in football at that time. Maybe not. New York’s drafts also can be hit or miss.

No. 22: Buffalo Bills

Thoughts: Things are looking up for Buffalo this season, but I think the Bills were a victim of circumstance in this case. The Bills haven’t made the postseason in 13 years. Therefore, I would assume it was very hard for our expert panel to put any stock in Buffalo’s future several years down the line. But there are some good, young players on the roster. Running back C.J. Spiller has potential. So does defensive tackle Marcell Dareus and rookie corner Stephon Gilmore. No. 1 receiver Steve Johnson also is still just 25. I still have questions about the long-term potential of quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick. But the Bills have potential to build something.

No. 28: Miami Dolphins

Thoughts: ESPN’s panel sees too many questions about the direction of Dolphins. Is rookie Ryan Tannehill the long-term solution quarterback? Is Joe Philbin a viable head coach? Is Pro Bowl left tackle Jake Long staying in Miami beyond 2012? There are a lot of questions in Miami. The Dolphins aren’t ready to compete now, and they have to make a lot of the right moves in order to compete in the future. Only the Oakland Raiders, Jacksonville Jaguars, Minnesota Vikings and Cleveland Browns had lower rankings than the Dolphins in these future Power Rankings.

The New England Patriots agreed to a four-year contract with first-round pick Chandler Jones on Wednesday. The rookie defensive end from Syracuse was the 21st overall pick in April's NFL draft.

Jones was drafted to help New England's pass rush. He was the first of two first-round picks for the Patriots.

New England has five of seven draft picks signed. Fellow first-round pick Dont'a Hightower and third-round pick Jake Bequette have yet to agree to terms.

Earlier Wednesday, we wrote a column on the New England Patriots' likely future struggles without Tom Brady. The Hall of Fame quarterback is set to retire in a few years, which will bring the Patriots back to earth with the rest of the division.

In our latest AFC East poll, we want to know which quarterback has the best chance to be Brady's heir in the division. There are several players to choose from on the Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, New York Jets and even the Patriots.

The Jets have two quarterbacks age 25 or under. Is Mark Sanchez or Tim Tebow the next dominant quarterback in the AFC East? Both have won playoff games early in their career and are competing to lead the Jets to the next level.

How about rookie first-round draft pick Ryan Tannehill? He's young and has all the tools to be a viable NFL quarterback. But the Dolphins must spend the next couple of years developing Tannehill and getting him ready for the pro game. Will he become the best quarterback in the AFC East after Brady retires?

Will it be Ryan Fitzpatrick? He's 29 and in the best years of his career. Fitzpatrick recently signed a $59 million contract extension with Buffalo, which means he will be the starter for at least the next two or three seasons.

Or is Brady’s heir also on New England's roster? Young but inexperienced quarterbacks Ryan Mallett and Brian Hoyer are both waiting and learning behind Brady. Does either player have what it takes to keep the Patriots in title contention when Brady retires?

Using our SportsNation poll, vote on the top quarterback of the future in the AFC East. You can also share your thoughts in the comments section below.

The New England Patriots have played in five Super Bowls -- winning three -- since they drafted quarterback Tom Brady in the sixth round in 2000. They also have eight division titles in that span, and Brady and coach Bill Belichick recently became the winningest quarterback-coach combo in NFL history.

But all of that comes to an end when Brady retires.

Brady, who turns 35 in August, says he wants to play in New England until he's 40. That is great news for the Patriots, because they will struggle the second the future Hall of Famer hangs it up.

Things that have become foreign to New England the past dozen years will become routine again. New England will have down years and miss the playoffs -- just like everybody else. The Patriots won't survive various injuries -- just like everybody else. The Patriots also will run through a few quarterbacks -- just like everybody else.

On Wednesday, ESPN.com examined potentially dominant teams in 2015 . At that point, I think New England's easy run over the AFC East will be a thing of the past.

Here are four reasons New England will struggle in the post-Brady era:

No. 1: Patriots won't immediately find Brady's replacement.

Brady's story is once in a generation. He's a former sixth-round pick who slipped through the cracks to become one of the top five quarterbacks of all time. Brady had the drive and “it" factor to become the greatest player in franchise history. Brady often is compared to Joe Montana, because they share a similar story about 20 years apart.

The chances of New England finding another Brady anytime soon are slim.

Patriots fans will scream that Ryan Mallett is a future franchise quarterback. But how does anyone really know, considering the 2011 third-round pick hasn't thrown an NFL pass?

What about Brian Hoyer? The undrafted quarterback has shown small flashes but certainly not enough to warrant Pro Bowl status. The drop-off going from Brady to 99 percent of other quarterbacks will be steep.

Even if Mallett or Hoyer turns out to be a viable starting quarterback, neither will be nearly as good as Brady. Is Mallett or Hoyer a future Hall of Famer? Probably not. Will either quarterback perennially make the Pro Bowl? Not likely.

New England has been able to overcome poor defense, injuries and at times average receivers to still be competitive. Brady was great enough to carry the Patriots through various weaknesses. That no longer will be a luxury in New England. It will be much harder to get everything right with other areas of the team, especially if the quarterback position is in flux.

No. 2: The offense is old.

Brady is turning 35 in August. No. 1 receiver Wes Welker is 31. Starting receiver Brandon Lloyd is 30. Longtime left tackle Matt Light just retired this offseason. Guard Brian Waters might follow, if not this year, then soon after.

When Brady is gone, it's likely all these important offensive pieces will be gone as well. A Patriots offense without Brady, Welker, Lloyd, Light, Waters, etc., means New England is virtually starting over in a few years.

The Patriots still have a couple of young stars in tight ends Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez. But consider this: One tight end probably will bolt in free agency. Both Gronkowski and Hernandez -- two of the top five players at their position -- have rookie contracts set to expire in two years. Both will be looking for huge paydays, and New England can't do that with two players at the same position.

New England most likely will throw the money truck at Gronkowski, perhaps making him the highest-paid tight end, and let Hernandez walk. Brady also will be 37 and possibly retired or on his last legs by the time both tight ends will look for extensions. Returning to New England's offense long term won't be as attractive two years from now for a pending free agent such as Hernandez.

No. 3: Sun is setting on Belichick.

Belichick just turned 60 years old. How much longer will he coach the Patriots?

He has coached in the NFL in some capacity for 37 years. He is approaching his fourth decade in the league.

Even head coaches have a shelf life. Belichick currently is the NFL's fourth-oldest head coach behind Tom Coughlin (65) of the New York Giants, Romeo Crennel (64) of the Kansas City Chiefs and, by a few months, Chan Gailey (60) of the Buffalo Bills. Perhaps we are also witnessing the last few years of Belichick roaming the sidelines.

A good debate topic in New England would be who contributed more to the Patriots' dynasty the past dozen years: Brady or Belichick? Both are Hall of Famers. But in my opinion, Brady's development and dominance at quarterback are stronger factors in New England's success. Belichick would not have won all those games, division titles and championships in New England with shoddy quarterback play. Brady remained dominant and kept the team afloat, even when Belichick struggled coaching the defense, which is Belichick's specialty.

No. 4: The rest of the AFC East will catch up.

I often call the AFC East the "Brady and Belichick division." They're the great equalizers who keep the Patriots on top.

But without Brady in a few years, and perhaps Belichick, all four teams are back to an even playing field. Who will be the top quarterback in the AFC East when Brady retires? Ryan Tannehill? Mark Sanchez? Tim Tebow? Someone else?

Maybe all four teams will have average quarterback play. That means the Patriots, New York Jets, Bills and Miami Dolphins must rely on other areas to be successful and win the division.

Can the Patriots rely on their defense to lead the way? Not right now. Not even close. New England is in no position to overcome poor quarterback play, and that probably won't change overnight.

I expect Brady to play at least two more years (2012 and 2013) at an elite level. He might opt to play beyond that. But after age 37, there's no guarantee Brady can continue to take the physical pounding and play at the high level to which we have become accustomed. We've already seen nagging injuries bother Brady more than ever over the past couple of seasons.

Brady is a special talent the organization probably will never see again. So enjoy the success now, Patriots fans. New England will come back to earth and be an ordinary team again in three to five years.

In case you missed it, here is a recap of some of the many topics we covered in this week's AFC East chat.

Eric: Matt Moore is doomed either way. What's the point, if we're gonna suck anyway, of NOT starting Ryan Tannehill now? Let him face adversity. I'm tired of "rebuilding" every, single year.

James Walker: Because it's the job of the coaching staff to play the players who give the team the best chance to win. Despite what fans and media say, every team thinks it can compete for the playoffs at the start of the season. Tannehill doesn't give Miami the best chance to do that this year. Maybe in Year 2 or Year 3. Moore or [David] Garrard is the safe choice while Tannehill learns.

JonK13: Hey James, I've heard coach Philbin is coaching a very upbeat offense down there in South Beach. Do you think Miami will be in shape to start the season or will they be gassed the first 7 games like last year?

James Walker: If the Dolphins players aren't in shape, they better get there. Miami is running more up-tempo on offense, at least that's what it looks like in practice. Miami wants to put pressure on the defense. That can be good and bad. It could lead to quick points if you're moving the chains. Or it could lead to a lot of quick three-and-outs and expose your defense. It worked in Green Bay. So HC Joe Philbin is trying it in Miami.

Matt: As it stands right now, do you think the Buffalo Bills' receiving corps is talented enough to be competitive and score enough points this season? Specifically, do you think T.J. Graham is enough of a vertical threat upgrade?

James Walker: It would be nice if Buffalo found a proven No. 2 receiver to go with Steve Johnson. But the Bills can't plug every hole. I think they did a solid job of re-signing Johnson at a price they were comfortable with and drafting a left tackle on offense. Those were two big things the Bills needed this offseason. It's too early to project what Graham can do. The Bills are hoping for the best, but we have to wait and see.

Diddy: Never mind Chan Gailey, any chance Rex Ryan is on the hot seat if the NYJ fail to make the playoffs again this year? And are the owners starting to get tired of his big mouth?

James Walker: I don't get this one. Rex Ryan is not on the hot seat. He hasn't had a losing season yet in New York and went to back-to-back AFC title games. Say what you want about his brash and sometimes empty talk. I critique him all the time about that. But Ryan is a quality coach.

Emotionless negotiator: Doesn't this sort of behavior engender a lot of ill will from the players over time? New England is getting a rep for treating dedicated players horribly.

James Walker: It can and probably does. But the Patriots are consistent and always doing what's best for the team, not the player. I think as long as you're going to Super Bowls, it doesn't really matter. Do Patriot fans really care that Willie McGinest is still upset years later? Probably not.

Here are the most interesting stories Wednesday morning in the AFC East:

• After an extended wait, Buffalo Bills defensive end Mario Williams chose No. 94 with his new team.

Morning take: Williams wanted No. 90, but veteran Chris Kelsay wouldn’t give it up. No. 94 will have to do for Williams in Buffalo.

• In light of concussions, the father of New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady said he would be hesitant to let his son play football.

Morning take: Fortunately for Patriots fans, it’s too late. Brady has had an amazing career in New England. We will have more on Brady later today.

• The New York Jets' three safeties have a history of struggles against the pass.

Morning take: LaRon Landry, Yeremiah Bell and Eric Smith are not cover safeties. They have other strengths, but opponents will test their pass coverage often.

• Miami Dolphins rookie quarterback Ryan Tannehill says he has to get use to the speed of the game.

Morning take: No shocker there. That is the biggest adjustment from the colleges to the pros. Tannehill will be fine. It will take time to play faster.

Retired New England Patriots left tackle Matt Light made a trip to ESPN headquarters this week. He recently played a game of percentages on "NFL Live" and had some interesting things to say.

Percentage chance Tom Brady plays for 10 more years

Matt Light: "One hundred percent. If you said 20 years, I’d probably give you 100 percent. I mean, they’re going to have to cart him off. ...He could be playing to 55, maybe even 60."

Percentage chance Bill Belichick wins another Super Bowl

Light: “We’ll go 50-50. The one thing that you hear from a lot of guys that come in from other organizations is that ‘I just wanted to come here because I just want a shot at winning.’ I think they bank on the fact that because of the system and the dedication of the coaching staff, the owner and everything else, they’re going to have that opportunity. So, each year 50-50.”

Percentage chance of Wes Welker signing a long-term deal before the season starts

Light: “Can we say zero on that? That’s a tough one. Let’s go with five percent.”

Percentage of caveman in tight end Rob Gronkowski

Light: “A solid 87. It’s a good caveman.”

Percentage chance of Light returning to the football field

Light: “Zero percent. Not in a bad way but when you close the door, it’s always good to keep walking.”

Some New England Patriots observers are still scratching their heads regarding defensive back Devin McCourty's sophomore slump. He went from a Pro Bowl corner in his rookie year to a player who couldn't consistently cover receivers in 2011.

McCourty provided some answers this week. He told the Boston Herald he played with a separated right shoulder since Week 10 of the regular season. McCourty returned after two games, but it appears he was more injured than he was letting on.

McCourty struggled mightily down the stretch for New England's 31st-rated defense. He was eventually moved to safety during the Patriots' playoff run. McCourty didn't require offseason surgery but says he's still not 100 percent.

The Patriots hope McCourty just suffered a down year. They need cover corners, and McCourty proved he can make plays when he had seven interceptions and two forced fumbles as a rookie.

Here are the most interesting stories in the AFC East:

• The New York Jets were without starting safety LaRon Landry for the start of organized team activities.

Morning take: This is no surprise as Landry continues to rehab his Achilles. The Jets are hopeful Landry can be close to 100 percent by training camp, because he will play an important role in the defense.

• The New England Patriots offense is changing the NFL.

Morning take: New England is ahead of the curve using two pass-catching tight ends. The size and speed matchup of Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez is a nightmare for defenses.

• Who are the top-10 running backs in Miami Dolphins history?

Morning take: Larry Csonka at No. 1 is easy. He remains the team's all-time leading rusher. But choices 2-10 have some surprises.

• NFL Network analyst Warren Sapp likes the Buffalo Bills' defensive line.

Morning take: There's a lot to like about the group. The defensive tackles and ends should make for one of the league's best groups. But everyone must stay healthy and productive.

ESPN.com senior writer John Clayton recently provided his list of the top-10 tight ends heading into the 2012 season. To no surprise, the New England Patriots duo of Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez both made the cut. But the rankings were interesting: Gronkowski was No. 1 and Hernandez was No. 3.

Gronkowski has catapulted to the top of the tight-end rankings after a record-setting season. I doubt many would argue that point. But is Hernandez, Gronkowski's backup, the third-best at his position?

"Hernandez isn't as physical as Gronkowski after the catch, but he's a beast to stop in routes. Hernandez takes double coverage away from Gronkowski and vice-versa, which forces opponents into more man-to-man coverages," Clayton wrote.

There are a lot of good tight ends in the NFL. But the big point is that both Gronkowski and Hernandez are unique talents who may not be together very long in New England. Both will be looking for top dollar when their contracts expire in two years. New England will struggle to pay both at the same position.

Also worth noting is Dustin Keller of the New York Jets also came in at No. 9 on Clayton's list of top tight ends.

Here is the AFC East blog's ranking of defenses heading into 2012:

No. 1: New York Jets

Analysis: The perception was stronger than the reality for New York's defense last year. The common train of thought is the Jets' defense had a significant drop off from previous years. The reality was New York finished fifth in total defense in 2011. Some aspects weren't consistent, such as the Jets' pass rush and covering tight ends over the middle. But New York still has the best cornerback duo in football and talent at all three levels. The Jets also added first-round pick Quinton Coples and hard-hitting safeties LaRon Landry and Yeremiah Bell. Until the other division defenses rank in the top five, you have to give the Jets the edge in these rankings.

No. 2: Buffalo Bills

Analysis: The Bills were ranked No. 26th in total defense last year, but they are poised to make a big jump. Buffalo added a pass rush at defensive end with Mario Williams and Mark Anderson, and a starting cornerback in first-round pick Stephon Gilmore. Buffalo's defensive line with Williams, Anderson, Kyle Williams and Marcell Dareus should be one of the NFL's best. Nick Barnett is a talented linebacker. There's also talent in the secondary, particularly with safeties Jairus Byrd and George Wilson. Buffalo's defense has a lot of potential if it can come together quickly.

No. 3: Miami Dolphins

Analysis: This will surely upset Dolphins fans, many of whom feel their defense is elite. Well, as I've said before, Miami's defense is somewhat overrated. It's a good group and a tough group. But it's not elite. Miami was ranked No. 15 in total defense. Its pass defense was No. 25. The Dolphins are still looking for another pass-rusher opposite Cameron Wake, who had 8.5 sacks in 2011. They also lost their leading tackler in Bell and their leader in Jason Taylor, who retired. Miami will play more 4-3 concepts under first-year defensive coordinator Kevin Coyle.

No. 4: New England Patriots

Analysis: The Patriots were the second-worst defense in the league last year. But this is an offensive team that got away with it and nearly won the Super Bowl. New England's defense doesn't cover well and needs to get to the quarterback more. The Patriots added plenty of pass-rushers in free agency and the draft. Perhaps that will help the back end. But New England's offense is so good that it probably won't matter much. If the defense improves from No. 31 to the top 20, that's enough for the Patriots to remain one of the elite NFL teams.

It was not a quiet seven days in the AFC East. Here is my take on several recent events that happened while I was away on vacation:

No. 1: Wes Welker finally signs franchise tender

Walker's take: In one of the final columns I wrote before vacation, I said Welker would be silly to fight the New England Patriots. Many have tried and failed. Welker is no exception. Welker briefly tried anyway by making a series of media appearances, including a trip to ESPN headquarters in Bristol, to win over public opinion. But none of that works with New England. The Patriots are emotionless in negotiations. Business is business. Welker did the smart thing by taking the guaranteed $9.5 million New England is offering. The Patriots may decide later to offer Welker an extension before the season starts, but only if they feel it's best for the team.

No. 2: Yeremiah Bell signs with the Jets

Walker's take: The New York Jets bolstered their safety position with the signing of Bell, who is a solid addition this late in free agency. The problem I have is Bell is similar to fellow free-agent signing LaRon Landry. Both are great tacklers, but the pair struggle in coverage. Will Landry or Bell play free safety and attempt to cover tight ends and receivers going across the middle? Neither is a good option. Eric Smith is probably a little better in coverage, but he's not a viable starter. The Jets did not improve their pass coverage this offseason, which is a major issue.

No. 3: Darrelle Revis and others talk up Tim Tebow

Walker's take: Either the Jets are naïve to this Tebow situation or they really don't care. But Revis, linebacker Bart Scott, head coach Rex Ryan and offensive coordinator Tony Sparano are among those who are really talking up Tebow this offseason. They are adding to the already immense hype, saying how great Tebow looks in practice and how his natural leadership already is showing through. I said weeks ago the Jets need to be careful about hyping the backup quarterback. It only makes it tougher on starter Mark Sanchez. The Jets obviously want and expect Sanchez to do well. But if he struggles early, this offseason Tebow talk could come back to haunt the Jets.

No. 4: Patriots meet with Dallas Clark

Walker's take: This is a classic case of Patriot bargain hunting. Does New England need another pass-catching tight end? Absolutely not. The Patriots have two of the league's best in Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez. Clark would be the third tight end, at best, if he could beat out free-agent signing Daniel Fells. But Clark, 32, is still on the market. So the Patriots are not afraid to visit and see if they can get the former Pro Bowler dirt cheap. It would be unnecessary for New England to sign Clark. But the team is trying to add as much talent as possible under the cap and figure it can sort things out later.

Buffalo Bills
The team announced that its first two home games -- Sept. 16 against Kansas City and Sept. 30 against New England -- are sold out, the Buffalo News reports. The team plays seven games at Ralph Wilson Stadium, and one at Toronto's Rogers Centre -- Dec. 16 against Seattle.

Miami Dolphins
Dolphins owner Stephen Ross says the team won't rush the development of Ryan Tannehill, the quarterback Miami drafted eighth overall. "We drafted Tannehill because we thought he’d be a great franchise quarterback," Ross told the Palm Beach Post. "He has all the intangibles, (he’s) a great athlete. The important thing is not to have great expectations up front, and bring him along."

New England Patriots
Former Patriots standout Willie McGinest told the Boston Herald he's made peace with Wes Welker after taking issue with how the receiver dealt with his contract status. "I'm cool with Wes. I never had a problem with him in the beginning," McGinest said. "I was just trying to give him the blueprint of how things go down (in Foxboro)."

New York Jets
The Jets aren't in fact out of the running for a return engagement on HBO's "Hard Knocks," the Sporting News reported. "(It) has not been offered to us," general manager Mike Tannenbaum said, "so right now we’re on the sidelines and we don’t know who’s going to be asked at the end of the day."