ESPN NFL

It's never too early to start keeping tabs on the high-profile quarterback race between Mark Sanchez and Tim Tebow. As much as the New York Jets try to downplay their quarterback situation, it's no secret Sanchez must do all he can to keep his job in 2012.

According to reports, Sanchez scored the first point in the opening of organized team activities by outperforming Tebow in the first practice Thursday. Manish Mehta of the New York Daily News praised Sanchez for his accuracy and making all the throws.

Meanwhile, Tebow threw a pair of interceptions in team drills and was yelled at by new Jets offensive coordinator Tony Sparano. Turnovers are a huge point of emphasis for the Jets this offseason.

Granted, it's just the first practice. But Sanchez needs to establish himself early as the unquestioned starter, and Thursday was a good start.

The AFC East blog will join the Jets for mandatory minicamp next month. That will be the final chance to see the team together before training camp begins. But this week's OTAs are a nice appetizer, and Sanchez got the early jump on Tebow.

» AFC Scenarios: East | West | North | South

Yes, the start of training camps is two months away, but it's never too early to consider the coming season. A look at the best-case and worst-case scenarios for the Dolphins in 2012.

Dream scenario (9-7): So much has to go right for the Dolphins to have a winning season in 2012. For example, one of the quarterbacks -- Matt Moore, David Garrard or rookie Ryan Tannehill -- will have to step up and have a stellar season. An unproven group of receivers must play above their talent level. Rookie head coach Joe Philbin has to push all the right buttons in his first year, and the defense must make a smooth transition to the 4-3. The chance of all these things falling perfectly in place for Miami is slim. But if it does, Miami could string together some wins in the AFC East and have a respectable season. Can the Dolphins carry over late momentum they gathered at the end of last season? Miami was 6-3 in its last nine games. But that was with a different coaching staff and different schemes. The Dolphins are not very talented, but they are a tough group. They could make it hard on a lot of opponents, and perhaps steal more wins than people expect.

Nightmare scenario (2-14): Miami is in the process of rebuilding. There's always an element of danger in that teams can fall apart and lose confidence when they’re not in contention. I think the Dolphins are probably a five- or six-win team next season. They could win a few games with their tough defense alone. But if nothing goes right and things fall apart, the worst-case scenario could be an ugly two-win season. The offense is a rough project. The Dolphins are installing a new West Coast offense and don't have the receivers to make it run smoothly. The biggest key is quarterback. If Moore and Garrard both struggle or get hurt, the Dolphins have no shot. It could also lead to Miami playing its first-round pick too soon. Tannehill could find himself leading a bad team before he’s ready. Think of what happened to Blaine Gabbert last season. That’s a nightmare the Dolphins want to avoid.

» AFC Scenarios: East | West | North | South

Yes, the start of training camps is two months away, but it’s never too early to consider the coming season. A look at the best-case and worst-case scenarios for the Buffalo Bills in 2012.

Dream scenario (11-5): It would be a dream for Bills fans to see their team back in the playoffs for the first time in 13 years. The last time we saw Buffalo make the postseason, the Bills were the victim of the “Music City Miracle” in 1999. It has been a long line of disappointments and underachieving since that historic play. (Many Bills fans still contend that was a forward pass, by the way.) This year’s team looks poised to break the streak. This is the best team, on paper, that Buffalo has had in a long time. The offense will be dangerous if quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick improves his consistency in the passing game and Fred Jackson, C.J. Spiller and the running game stay consistent. Buffalo also made improvements to the defense, including drafting corner Stephon Gilmore in the first round and adding stud defensive ends Mario Williams and Mark Anderson. Chances are, everything won’t fall into place for Buffalo. But this is a sleeper team that does have a chance to make a jump and contend for the playoffs.

Nightmare scenario (5-11): Despite all the additions, there is no guarantee the Bills and their coaching staff can bring it all together in one year. What if Fitzpatrick continues to play like the second half of 2011 and is not the long-term solution? What if the defense struggles to make the transition to a 4-3 scheme under new defensive coordinator Dave Wannstedt? What if big injuries again decimate this team? A lot can go wrong for the Bills, especially in a division where the reigning AFC champion New England Patriots are expected to dominate. The Bills are trying to catch up and cannot afford to make many mistakes in the AFC East. They were 1-5 against division foes last year. Bills head coach Chan Gailey is only 10-22 in his first two years in Buffalo. He has more talent than he has ever had with the Bills. There are no excuses for Gailey this year. It’s still somewhat of a mystery whether Gailey can coach. But we will find out in 2012.

» AFC Scenarios: East | West | North | South

Yes, the start of training camps is two months away, but it’s never too early to consider the coming season. A look at the best-case and worst-case scenarios for the Jets in 2012.

Dream scenario (11-5): Everything comes together and the Jets set themselves up for another playoff run. Much of this comes down to starting quarterback Mark Sanchez, who must have a bounce-back year in order keep his job and fend off backup Tim Tebow. If Sanchez throws well, Tebow can effectively stay in his role as the Wildcat quarterback and things could run smoothly for New York’s offense. The defense will be fine. The Jets finished fifth last year in total defense, and that was despite their offense's inability to sustain time-consuming drives. New York has the talent to be a playoff team. But chemistry and quarterback issues remain. The Jets also would need their division rivals, especially the New England Patriots, to have a down year. The Jets were 3-3 against the AFC East last year and need to improve that mark to get a playoff spot and perhaps a division title in 2012.

Nightmare scenario (5-11): If things fall apart, this has the potential to be the worst year of the Rex Ryan era. The Jets haven't had a losing season under Ryan. But with so many questions, this is very much a boom-or-bust season. New York has locker room issues, a quarterback controversy and a brutal first five games that could set a bad tone for the year. If the Jets start 1-4 or 2-3, can this team stay together enough to pull out of it? That wasn’t the case a year ago and probably won't be the case this year. The Jets have a lot to prove both on the field and in the locker room. There are a lot of combustible personalities on the team, and New York proved last year that things can implode quickly from within. It also doesn't help that the Jets are under the biggest media spotlight in New York. If Tebow is the starting quarterback at some point next season, that means something went wrong. Tebow could take over Sanchez's starting job either because of poor performance or injury. Neither scenario would be good.

» AFC Scenarios: East | West | North | South

Yes, the start of training camps is two months away, but it’s never too early to consider the coming season. A look at the best-case and worst-case scenarios for the Patriots in 2012.

Dream scenario (15-1): The Patriots take advantage of the easiest strength of schedule in the NFL on their way to home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. Barring injury, it's hard not to see New England winning at least 11 or 12 games this year. Note the dream scenario is 15-1, not 16-0. The pressure of going into the playoffs undefeated is immense. New England found out the hard way after the 2007 season, when they came up just short in the Super Bowl against the New York Giants. It would be easier for New England to get that loss out of the way early so the pressure of a perfect season won't be on their shoulders late in the year. The AFC East looks ripe for the Patriots once again. They went 5-1 against the division in 2011, which is key to winning the AFC East and vying for home-field advantage in the AFC.

Nightmare scenario (9-7): Is 9-7 really a nightmare? Not for most teams. But it's Super Bowl or bust for New England, and a nine-win season with the chance to miss the playoffs is probably the worst this team could do considering its talent and easy schedule. Significant injuries are the only thing I can see derailing the Patriots from another playoff run. Quarterback Tom Brady suffered a season-ending knee injury in 2008 and New England still finished 11-5. But this is a different team, especially on defense. A significant injury to Brady, especially early in the season, would be a nightmare and make the Patriots an ordinary team again. I'm not convinced this team is good enough, especially defensively, to hold up like it did a few years ago without its future Hall of Fame quarterback. Also, who knows if Ryan Mallett or Brian Hoyer is good enough to lead the charge? Maybe in time, but the Patriots don't want to find out next season.

On Wednesday ESPN put together an expert panel to determine which team will is poised to dominate in 2015. That is three years and four seasons from now.

Here is how things shaped up in the AFC East:

No 2: New England Patriots

Thoughts: Earlier Wednesday I wrote a column that New England will struggle when Tom Brady retires. Our panel thinks Brady will still be around in 2015 and gave New England a "nine" rating at quarterback. That's debatable. Brady will be 38 years old in 2015. Is Brady still playing football? And if so, is Brady still elite pushing 40? The article also ignores tight end Aaron Hernandez's contract situation. He's a free agent in two years, along with teammate Rob Gronkowski. Hernandez is probably not on New England's roster in 2015 unless the Patriots find a way to make "Gronk" and Hernandez two of the highest-paid players at the same position. That's not likely.

No. 16: New York Jets

Thoughts: The Jets are an interesting team. Like the Patriots, they are built to win now. It’s hard to say where New York will be in four seasons. ESPN's Trent Dilfer says he still loves the talent and potential of quarterback Mark Sanchez, but I disagree. Entering his fourth season, I think Sanchez pretty much is what he is. Of course, Sanchez can play better over the next few years and reduce turnovers. But he’s not a future perennial Pro Bowler in waiting. Pro Bowl cornerback Darrelle Revis will be 30 in 2015. Maybe he’s still the best cornerback in football at that time. Maybe not. New York’s drafts also can be hit or miss.

No. 22: Buffalo Bills

Thoughts: Things are looking up for Buffalo this season, but I think the Bills were a victim of circumstance in this case. The Bills haven’t made the postseason in 13 years. Therefore, I would assume it was very hard for our expert panel to put any stock in Buffalo’s future several years down the line. But there are some good, young players on the roster. Running back C.J. Spiller has potential. So does defensive tackle Marcell Dareus and rookie corner Stephon Gilmore. No. 1 receiver Steve Johnson also is still just 25. I still have questions about the long-term potential of quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick. But the Bills have potential to build something.

No. 28: Miami Dolphins

Thoughts: ESPN’s panel sees too many questions about the direction of Dolphins. Is rookie Ryan Tannehill the long-term solution quarterback? Is Joe Philbin a viable head coach? Is Pro Bowl left tackle Jake Long staying in Miami beyond 2012? There are a lot of questions in Miami. The Dolphins aren’t ready to compete now, and they have to make a lot of the right moves in order to compete in the future. Only the Oakland Raiders, Jacksonville Jaguars, Minnesota Vikings and Cleveland Browns had lower rankings than the Dolphins in these future Power Rankings.

The Miami Dolphins are staging an open quarterback competition this summer. But this week the owner of the team, Stephen Ross, already pegged incumbent Matt Moore as the favorite.

That's fine by veteran free-agent David Garrard, who told reporters he's now even more motivated to win the job.

"That's just more fuel for me. It’s somebody else I have to try and prove wrong," Garrard explained. "The owner is the owner. He can make all of the comments that he wants. I am never going to dispute him, but I'll just let my play on the field go out and show for it."

The AFC East blog mentioned earlier this week that Ross shouldn't pick favorites in May. The least the owner could do is join his coaching staff to wait and see how the competition plays out.

But Ross added unnecessary spice to this quarterback competition. Now, Garrard knows his boss does not expect him to win the job. That likely provides motivation and a little shot to the gut.

The New England Patriots have played in five Super Bowls -- winning three -- since they drafted quarterback Tom Brady in the sixth round in 2000. They also have eight division titles in that span, and Brady and coach Bill Belichick recently became the winningest quarterback-coach combo in NFL history.

But all of that comes to an end when Brady retires.

Brady, who turns 35 in August, says he wants to play in New England until he's 40. That is great news for the Patriots, because they will struggle the second the future Hall of Famer hangs it up.

Things that have become foreign to New England the past dozen years will become routine again. New England will have down years and miss the playoffs -- just like everybody else. The Patriots won't survive various injuries -- just like everybody else. The Patriots also will run through a few quarterbacks -- just like everybody else.

On Wednesday, ESPN.com examined potentially dominant teams in 2015 . At that point, I think New England's easy run over the AFC East will be a thing of the past.

Here are four reasons New England will struggle in the post-Brady era:

No. 1: Patriots won't immediately find Brady's replacement.

Brady's story is once in a generation. He's a former sixth-round pick who slipped through the cracks to become one of the top five quarterbacks of all time. Brady had the drive and “it" factor to become the greatest player in franchise history. Brady often is compared to Joe Montana, because they share a similar story about 20 years apart.

The chances of New England finding another Brady anytime soon are slim.

Patriots fans will scream that Ryan Mallett is a future franchise quarterback. But how does anyone really know, considering the 2011 third-round pick hasn't thrown an NFL pass?

What about Brian Hoyer? The undrafted quarterback has shown small flashes but certainly not enough to warrant Pro Bowl status. The drop-off going from Brady to 99 percent of other quarterbacks will be steep.

Even if Mallett or Hoyer turns out to be a viable starting quarterback, neither will be nearly as good as Brady. Is Mallett or Hoyer a future Hall of Famer? Probably not. Will either quarterback perennially make the Pro Bowl? Not likely.

New England has been able to overcome poor defense, injuries and at times average receivers to still be competitive. Brady was great enough to carry the Patriots through various weaknesses. That no longer will be a luxury in New England. It will be much harder to get everything right with other areas of the team, especially if the quarterback position is in flux.

No. 2: The offense is old.

Brady is turning 35 in August. No. 1 receiver Wes Welker is 31. Starting receiver Brandon Lloyd is 30. Longtime left tackle Matt Light just retired this offseason. Guard Brian Waters might follow, if not this year, then soon after.

When Brady is gone, it's likely all these important offensive pieces will be gone as well. A Patriots offense without Brady, Welker, Lloyd, Light, Waters, etc., means New England is virtually starting over in a few years.

The Patriots still have a couple of young stars in tight ends Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez. But consider this: One tight end probably will bolt in free agency. Both Gronkowski and Hernandez -- two of the top five players at their position -- have rookie contracts set to expire in two years. Both will be looking for huge paydays, and New England can't do that with two players at the same position.

New England most likely will throw the money truck at Gronkowski, perhaps making him the highest-paid tight end, and let Hernandez walk. Brady also will be 37 and possibly retired or on his last legs by the time both tight ends will look for extensions. Returning to New England's offense long term won't be as attractive two years from now for a pending free agent such as Hernandez.

No. 3: Sun is setting on Belichick.

Belichick just turned 60 years old. How much longer will he coach the Patriots?

He has coached in the NFL in some capacity for 37 years. He is approaching his fourth decade in the league.

Even head coaches have a shelf life. Belichick currently is the NFL's fourth-oldest head coach behind Tom Coughlin (65) of the New York Giants, Romeo Crennel (64) of the Kansas City Chiefs and, by a few months, Chan Gailey (60) of the Buffalo Bills. Perhaps we are also witnessing the last few years of Belichick roaming the sidelines.

A good debate topic in New England would be who contributed more to the Patriots' dynasty the past dozen years: Brady or Belichick? Both are Hall of Famers. But in my opinion, Brady's development and dominance at quarterback are stronger factors in New England's success. Belichick would not have won all those games, division titles and championships in New England with shoddy quarterback play. Brady remained dominant and kept the team afloat, even when Belichick struggled coaching the defense, which is Belichick's specialty.

No. 4: The rest of the AFC East will catch up.

I often call the AFC East the "Brady and Belichick division." They're the great equalizers who keep the Patriots on top.

But without Brady in a few years, and perhaps Belichick, all four teams are back to an even playing field. Who will be the top quarterback in the AFC East when Brady retires? Ryan Tannehill? Mark Sanchez? Tim Tebow? Someone else?

Maybe all four teams will have average quarterback play. That means the Patriots, New York Jets, Bills and Miami Dolphins must rely on other areas to be successful and win the division.

Can the Patriots rely on their defense to lead the way? Not right now. Not even close. New England is in no position to overcome poor quarterback play, and that probably won't change overnight.

I expect Brady to play at least two more years (2012 and 2013) at an elite level. He might opt to play beyond that. But after age 37, there's no guarantee Brady can continue to take the physical pounding and play at the high level to which we have become accustomed. We've already seen nagging injuries bother Brady more than ever over the past couple of seasons.

Brady is a special talent the organization probably will never see again. So enjoy the success now, Patriots fans. New England will come back to earth and be an ordinary team again in three to five years.

In case you missed it, here is a recap of some of the many topics we covered in this week's AFC East chat.

Eric: Matt Moore is doomed either way. What's the point, if we're gonna suck anyway, of NOT starting Ryan Tannehill now? Let him face adversity. I'm tired of "rebuilding" every, single year.

James Walker: Because it's the job of the coaching staff to play the players who give the team the best chance to win. Despite what fans and media say, every team thinks it can compete for the playoffs at the start of the season. Tannehill doesn't give Miami the best chance to do that this year. Maybe in Year 2 or Year 3. Moore or [David] Garrard is the safe choice while Tannehill learns.

JonK13: Hey James, I've heard coach Philbin is coaching a very upbeat offense down there in South Beach. Do you think Miami will be in shape to start the season or will they be gassed the first 7 games like last year?

James Walker: If the Dolphins players aren't in shape, they better get there. Miami is running more up-tempo on offense, at least that's what it looks like in practice. Miami wants to put pressure on the defense. That can be good and bad. It could lead to quick points if you're moving the chains. Or it could lead to a lot of quick three-and-outs and expose your defense. It worked in Green Bay. So HC Joe Philbin is trying it in Miami.

Matt: As it stands right now, do you think the Buffalo Bills' receiving corps is talented enough to be competitive and score enough points this season? Specifically, do you think T.J. Graham is enough of a vertical threat upgrade?

James Walker: It would be nice if Buffalo found a proven No. 2 receiver to go with Steve Johnson. But the Bills can't plug every hole. I think they did a solid job of re-signing Johnson at a price they were comfortable with and drafting a left tackle on offense. Those were two big things the Bills needed this offseason. It's too early to project what Graham can do. The Bills are hoping for the best, but we have to wait and see.

Diddy: Never mind Chan Gailey, any chance Rex Ryan is on the hot seat if the NYJ fail to make the playoffs again this year? And are the owners starting to get tired of his big mouth?

James Walker: I don't get this one. Rex Ryan is not on the hot seat. He hasn't had a losing season yet in New York and went to back-to-back AFC title games. Say what you want about his brash and sometimes empty talk. I critique him all the time about that. But Ryan is a quality coach.

Emotionless negotiator: Doesn't this sort of behavior engender a lot of ill will from the players over time? New England is getting a rep for treating dedicated players horribly.

James Walker: It can and probably does. But the Patriots are consistent and always doing what's best for the team, not the player. I think as long as you're going to Super Bowls, it doesn't really matter. Do Patriot fans really care that Willie McGinest is still upset years later? Probably not.

Here are the most interesting stories Wednesday morning in the AFC East:

• After an extended wait, Buffalo Bills defensive end Mario Williams chose No. 94 with his new team.

Morning take: Williams wanted No. 90, but veteran Chris Kelsay wouldn’t give it up. No. 94 will have to do for Williams in Buffalo.

• In light of concussions, the father of New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady said he would be hesitant to let his son play football.

Morning take: Fortunately for Patriots fans, it’s too late. Brady has had an amazing career in New England. We will have more on Brady later today.

• The New York Jets' three safeties have a history of struggles against the pass.

Morning take: LaRon Landry, Yeremiah Bell and Eric Smith are not cover safeties. They have other strengths, but opponents will test their pass coverage often.

• Miami Dolphins rookie quarterback Ryan Tannehill says he has to get use to the speed of the game.

Morning take: No shocker there. That is the biggest adjustment from the colleges to the pros. Tannehill will be fine. It will take time to play faster.

The New York Jets entered the offseason in need of cover safeties. Instead, they signed veterans LaRon Landry and Yeremiah Bell.

Both Landry and Bell struggle in coverage and are considered strong safeties. Yet, expect both to start for New York this upcoming season.

Will this odd couple work for the Jets?

Retired New England Patriots left tackle Matt Light made a trip to ESPN headquarters this week. He recently played a game of percentages on "NFL Live" and had some interesting things to say.

Percentage chance Tom Brady plays for 10 more years

Matt Light: "One hundred percent. If you said 20 years, I’d probably give you 100 percent. I mean, they’re going to have to cart him off. ...He could be playing to 55, maybe even 60."

Percentage chance Bill Belichick wins another Super Bowl

Light: “We’ll go 50-50. The one thing that you hear from a lot of guys that come in from other organizations is that ‘I just wanted to come here because I just want a shot at winning.’ I think they bank on the fact that because of the system and the dedication of the coaching staff, the owner and everything else, they’re going to have that opportunity. So, each year 50-50.”

Percentage chance of Wes Welker signing a long-term deal before the season starts

Light: “Can we say zero on that? That’s a tough one. Let’s go with five percent.”

Percentage of caveman in tight end Rob Gronkowski

Light: “A solid 87. It’s a good caveman.”

Percentage chance of Light returning to the football field

Light: “Zero percent. Not in a bad way but when you close the door, it’s always good to keep walking.”

Some New England Patriots observers are still scratching their heads regarding defensive back Devin McCourty's sophomore slump. He went from a Pro Bowl corner in his rookie year to a player who couldn't consistently cover receivers in 2011.

McCourty provided some answers this week. He told the Boston Herald he played with a separated right shoulder since Week 10 of the regular season. McCourty returned after two games, but it appears he was more injured than he was letting on.

McCourty struggled mightily down the stretch for New England's 31st-rated defense. He was eventually moved to safety during the Patriots' playoff run. McCourty didn't require offseason surgery but says he's still not 100 percent.

The Patriots hope McCourty just suffered a down year. They need cover corners, and McCourty proved he can make plays when he had seven interceptions and two forced fumbles as a rookie.

It's rare for a member of the media to suggest someone should stop doing interviews. But for the betterment of the Miami Dolphins, now is probably a good time for owner Stephen Ross to tone down the rhetoric.

Ross' latest statement is a perfect example. He told NFL.com he expects Matt Moore to be the starter in Week 1. This one statement, in essence, undermines everything Miami's coaching staff and front office have preached to the team and the public this offseason.

"I don't think they're going to rush (Ryan Tannehill) into anything. He's going to have to win the starting job," Ross said. "I think Matt Moore will probably be the starter, and I wish him the best."

Ross' public endorsement of Moore -- (wish him the best?) -- is not a good look.

The team has said over and over that veteran David Garrard will get a fair shot. Some in Miami think Garrard could actually be the favorite, because his style better fits the West Coast system. Head coach Joe Philbin and general manager Jeff Ireland also haven't ruled out Tannehill, although the expectation is that Tannehill will hold a clipboard as a rookie.

So, what if Garrard beats out Moore in training camp? Is Garrard the quarterback the owner didn't want or expect to start? If Garrard struggles early, would the owner push the coaching staff to insert Moore, who Ross projected to win the job in the first place? It's an unneeded controversy waiting to happen.

Ross' statement goes in the same bin with other offseason classics, such as wanting to hire a young Don Shula (Philbin is 50) and saying he hopes to retire Tannehill's jersey someday before the rookie's introductory news conference. Those are things you just shouldn't say publicly as the owner of a sports team.

Football season is upon us, and Ross is not a "football guy."

For the Dolphins' sake, it's time for Ross to stop making football statements.

The New York Jets are taking a quieter approach to the offseason in 2012. There are no more Super Bowl guarantees and the chest thumping that earned them the title of "OTA World Champions."

That's a good thing. New York needs to keep all its focus on starting fast against a brutal early portion of its 2012 schedule. A slow start could ruin the Jets' entire season.

Here is the list of opponents:

• Week 1: Buffalo Bills
• Week 2: at Pittsburgh Steelers
• Week 3: at Miami Dolphins
• Week 4: San Francisco 49ers
• Week 5: Houston Texans

The first five games include three playoff teams from last year: the Steelers, 49ers and Texans. The up-and-coming Bills in Week 1 also will be a stiff challenge.

After last season's debacle, pressure is on New York to start fast. That is especially important for starting quarterback Mark Sanchez, who is under the microscope after the acquisition of Tim Tebow.

Will the Jets thrive in this tough stretch? Or is this year’s team doomed from the start?