As Jenny Dell of "Countdown Daily" explains in the AccuScore report for Sunday's game, the Bills' best chance to win is if running backs Marshawn Lynch, Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller combine to rush for 100 yards (something they haven't done yet) and receiver Lee Evans has 80 receiving yards (he had zero catches last week and hasn't had 80 yards since November 2008).
But if those things happen, then AccuScore pegs the likelihood of a Buffalo victory at a whopping 45 percent.
AccuScore's 10,000 simulations project Tom Brady will complete 65 percent of his throws for 250 yards with a 40 percent chance of two or more touchdowns.
The forecast calls for the Patriots to win by 11 points.