But AccuScore projects the Patriots' ground game will make the difference despite Manning averaging 300 yards, two touchdowns and one interception in its 10,000 computer simulations.
Overall, the Patriots are 59 percent favorites because they averaged more than 5 yards per carry with BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Danny Woodhead in the simulations, while the Colts averaged about 3 yards. But top Colts back Joseph Addai has been getting more practice reps as he recovers from a neck injury and could play Sunday.
Brady completed 70 percent of his passes in the simulations. If he has two or more touchdowns and no more than one interception, then the Patriots become 73 percent favorites.
The formula for the Colts: hold the Patriots to under 4 yards a carry and sack Brady at least three times. If that happens, then the Colts have a 70 percent chance to win.