AccuScore has had problems getting a handle on the Buffalo Bills this year.
AccuScore correctly predicted the Bills' first victory three weeks ago. In other games, however, the Bills have turned projected blowouts into tight finishes, most recently last week's overtime loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers.
The Bills' repeated competitiveness apparently won't make their numbers any less lopsided for Sunday's game against the Minnesota Vikings in the Metrodome.
The Vikings won 77 percent of AccuScore's 10,000 simulations. The average margin was four points.
AccuScore, however, is assuming Minnesota running back Adrian Peterson will play. If he can rush for at least 100 yards against Buffalo's rock-bottom run defense, then Minnesota's chances skyrocket to 90 percent.
Minnesota is holding opponents to 3.6 yards a carry, but if Fred Jackson can punch his average over 5 yards and score at least one rushing touchdown with Ryan Fitzpatrick throwing no interceptions, then Buffalo becomes a modest 53 percent favorite.