Bills must find a way to stop Peyton Hillis

In AccuScore's analysis of Sunday's annual game between division also-rans, it doesn't seem the Buffalo Bills will have as much say as the Cleveland Browns do.

The two key variables depend on whether Colt McCoy starts at quarterback and whether Peyton Hillis rushes for 100 yards against the NFL's worst run defense.

McCoy has an injured ankle. In simulations where McCoy played, the Browns won 58 percent of the time. In simulations where he didn't, the Bills won 58 percent of the time.

Hillis hit triple-digits in 50 percent of the simulations, and when he did the Browns won 74 percent of the games. When Hillis rushed for under 100 yards, the Bills won 65 percent of the games.

"The Browns are a very strong football team and he’s a strong, downhill runner," Bills coach Chan Gailey said. "The thing about it is, if you load up inside, he can get outside as well. We've just got to try to get bodies around him as much as we can and get him to the ground. That's going to be the biggest thing.

"He's a fighter and a hustler, and he gets every yard he can get. You've got to try to not let him fall forward. You've got to keep trying to knock him back."

One factor the Bills can control: If they commit no more than one turnover, their chances rise to 62 percent.