Three-and-out redux: By the percentages
December, 10, 2010
12/10/10
9:32
AM ET
By Tim Graham | ESPN.com
An item posted Thursday afternoon about three-and-out possessions didn't match some readers' specifications.
In the comments section, readers requested more information than just the total number. They also wanted to know how many drives each team has conducted and the percentage of drives that failed to gain a first down.
With data from Football Outsiders, we were able to list the number of possessions (not counting kneeldown series) to determine a percentage of futility.
What we found is that the Jacksonville Jaguars' phenomenal efficiency looks even more striking as a ratio. Only 7.3 percent of their possessions have gone three-and-out. The Houston Texans are a distant second at 17.6 percent.
In Thursday's article, I remarked how surprising it was to see the Patriots with so many three-and-outs despite being the NFL's highest-scoring team. Their efficiency got even worse when factored against their 116 possessions, the fewest of any team.
The Patriots are tied for seventh-best with 25 three-and-outs, but they're 12th when that number is converted into a percentage.
As reader geroda30 pointed out, those stats suggest opposing defenses better get the Patriots off the field quickly or expect to get scored upon. If the Patriots can amass so many points while also struggling to move the chains that often, then they must thrive off forward momentum once they find traction.
The New York Jets improved with the added context. They are tied for 19th with the Buffalo Bills at 33 three-and-outs, but the Jets have one of the NFL's highest possession totals.
In the comments section, readers requested more information than just the total number. They also wanted to know how many drives each team has conducted and the percentage of drives that failed to gain a first down.
With data from Football Outsiders, we were able to list the number of possessions (not counting kneeldown series) to determine a percentage of futility.
What we found is that the Jacksonville Jaguars' phenomenal efficiency looks even more striking as a ratio. Only 7.3 percent of their possessions have gone three-and-out. The Houston Texans are a distant second at 17.6 percent.
In Thursday's article, I remarked how surprising it was to see the Patriots with so many three-and-outs despite being the NFL's highest-scoring team. Their efficiency got even worse when factored against their 116 possessions, the fewest of any team.
The Patriots are tied for seventh-best with 25 three-and-outs, but they're 12th when that number is converted into a percentage.
As reader geroda30 pointed out, those stats suggest opposing defenses better get the Patriots off the field quickly or expect to get scored upon. If the Patriots can amass so many points while also struggling to move the chains that often, then they must thrive off forward momentum once they find traction.
The New York Jets improved with the added context. They are tied for 19th with the Buffalo Bills at 33 three-and-outs, but the Jets have one of the NFL's highest possession totals.
ABOUT THIS BLOG
James Walker
Walker joined ESPN.com in 2008 after four seasons covering the NFL and NBA for the Columbus (Ohio) Dispatch. He's a Temple graduate and Hyattsville, Md. native who lives in Miami.
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