Dolphins quarterback Chad Henne has struggled. Ryan Fitzpatrick has been efficient, but with veteran receiver Lee Evans on injured reserve, the Bills' receiving corps consists of a seventh-round pick and three undrafted rookies.
AccuScore's 10,000 computer simulations of this matchup showed Henne and Fitzpatrick averaged passer ratings under 70 and about 170 passing yards.
Dolphins running backs Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown thrived. Together they averaged 140 yards and 5 yards a carry. When the Bills' shoddy run defense held the Dolphins to under 4 yards a carry, then the Bills won 51 percent of the simulations.
The Bills' best chance to win was when Fred Jackson rushed for over 5 yards a carry and they came up with at least two turnovers. But even then, Buffalo won just 57 percent of the time.
Overall, the Dolphins won 74 percent of the simulations by an average of nine points.