For the New York Jets to have a shot against the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday, quarterback Mark Sanchez has to be efficient.
The odds of that happening aren't too great.
AccuScore's 10,000 computer simulations give the Jets just a 22 percent chance to win at Heinz Field. The Steelers won them by an average of 10 points.
Only the San Francisco 49ers are bigger Week 15 long shots. They'll visit the San Diego Chargers on Thursday night.
A month ago, when AccuScore experimented to see how some of the elite teams would fare against each other, the Jets won 44 percent of the simulations against the Steelers. The Jets have spiraled downward.
In this week's sims, Sanchez completed just 50 percent of his throws and averaged a 64 passer rating. He threw a touchdown pass in only 52 percent of the games.
When Sanchez completed at least one touchdown and didn't throw any interceptions and LaDainian Tomlinson and Shonn Greene combined for 100 yards against the NFL's top run defense, then the Jets won 68 percent of the time.
Problem is, that formula availed itself in just five percent of the simulations.