Mail call: AFC East weekly delivery

October, 4, 2008
Oct 4
8:30
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By Tim Graham
Posted by ESPN.com's Tim Graham

John in St. Petersburg, Fla., writes: While I'm not sure they can do it, how would it shake up the AFC East and maybe the AFC in general if the Dolphins manage to beat the Chargers on Sunday? Would they be considered the same bottom of the barrel team that got lucky two weeks in a row or would they be more like a potential 8-8 or better team?

Tim Graham: If the Dolphins can back up their startling victory over the Patriots in Week 3, then they will have established themselves as a live team. They've already shown they're not a free win anymore. Now they need to show it was no fluke.


Mr. Anonymous in Buffalo writes: What is with the Bills blocking? has it been consistently terrible since last year, or are we just noticing it more this year because everything else is upgraded?

Tim Graham: Upgrades at other positions should mask shortcomings, not magnify them. The Bills' offensive line does look harried at times. The obvious reason is left tackle Jason Peters' holdout throwing everybody out of whack. Langston Walker spent most of training camp at left tackle. Now he's back on the right. Peters looks like he's having trouble getting his assignments down.


Jeffrey in Minneapolis writes: I've sent this to reporters and bloggers in the New York Metro area in a longer piece written as an open letter to Eric Mangini about the horrid history of losing on the Jets side. 4th and inches on the three time 2 point conversion attempt in San Diego and the Jets knee jerk reacting to the previous two weeks of running the ball when Farve should have been allowed to throw the ball. Instead in San Diego they throw from inches away after two penatlies against San Diego. My point and question is this. Why does a Hall of Fame of QB who was part of a team that went 14-4 last year need to learn the "playbook" of a 4-12 offense? Not one of the ESPN, NFL Today, Monday Night Football experts has asked or made that point? So I ask you why the losing offense from last year? Why is that so important?

Tim Graham: It's incredibly important for Brett Favre to be the one to adapt because 10 other starters, all of the reserves, the head coach, the offensive coordinator and all the other assistants were using their own playbook for a year and a half before Favre arrived.

They don't know the Packers' playbook. You can see how difficult it has been for an 18-year veteran to learn a new playbook. Imagine how hard it would be for a couple dozen players with a fraction of that experience and from varied backgrounds to learn a new system four weeks before the season starts. Quite simply, it's easier for one person to learn a new playbook than it is for 25 players to learn a new one.


Bill in Pittsburgh writes: What does Buffalo have to do to keep this wave rolling? Oakland, the Rams, and depleted 'Hawks and Jags teams are one thing, but divisional foes are yet to come.

Tim Graham: The Bills need to start putting together 60-minute efforts. They need to stop sleepwalking through parts of the game and then needing to mount late comebacks. They need more consistent offensive line play. They need to avoid major injuries.


James in Denver writes: With the return of Tom Brady next year and the young Bills and Fins getting a year under their belts, do you see the East as the strength of the AFC in a year or two? Unsure about the Pats and Jets because of their age, it seems like things could go back to the early 90s in the East.

Tim Graham: Even now, the AFC East might trail only the incomparable NFC East as the best division. The NFC South is up there, too. But of the three AFC East teams that have played each other, they're 1-1 apiece. The Patriots beat the Jets who beat the Dolphins who beat the Patriots. All four AFC East teams are talented enough that, if the Jets can find an heir for Brett Favre, the competition level should be high for a while.


Zach in Washington D.C. writes: why did you shaft the redskins so badly in your power rankings? its not like there were a bunch of bs turnovers or bad calls. they OUTPLAYED the cowboys.

Tim Graham: Yes, they outplayed the Cowboys. And the Dolphins dominated the Patriots and the Chiefs clobbered the Broncos. The reason I ranked the Redskins where I did is because I'm not sold on Jason Campbell yet, and their performance against the Cardinals wasn't all that compelling. But there are 13 more editions of our power rankings to come, and since they have no bearing on which teams go to New Year's Day bowl games, I wouldn't get too worked up about them. If the Redskins continue to win, they'll climb in my power rankings.


Josh in Gainesville, Fla., writes: Hello Tim, I have been a fan of the Dolphins for all my life(20 years) and I am happy to see you still covering the Dolphins even if you have to cover the rest of the AFC East. My question is: What do you think that the Dolphins will do this season and do you think the Bills will stay this strong throughout the rest of the season?

Tim Graham: Thanks for the questions, Josh. My opinion on the Dolphins outlook changes every week, as you can imagine. My preseason prediction was six wins. They played well in Week 1 and then looked so miserable in Week 2 that I wondered if they could win half as many games as I previously thought. Then they destroy the Patriots. Go figure.


Ray in New York writes: Tim, do you think the bills can compete with the elite teams in the AFC and NFC or do you think they are still a year or so away from being a strong contender for a title?

Tim Graham: I'm not convinced yet, although that's not entirely the Bills' fault. Their schedule hasn't posed enough challenges to date, but I think an elite team would've blown out the St. Louis Rams, a bad team that was reeling internally in the days leading up to that game. Still, the Bills are 4-0 and have been remarkable in many ways.

I do believe the Bills will be strong for the rest of the season. Their schedule is favorable, and they're going to be competitive every Sunday. They don't have a slew of Pro Bowlers like the Chargers or the Cowboys, but they look like no less of a lock to be playing in January.


Alex from Pennsylvania writes: Tim , as always thanx for the best football blog on the web IMO, regarding The Dolphins AND AFC East. That brings so much more to the table(all 4 teams). You challenge people to think outside the 'normal' box. My Q: You get to pick ONE position and ONE player from each squad (O,D,ST)on the Phins to cut and replace. Who do you cut and who do you replace them with? Elaborate if you feel like it. Thanx as always.

Tim Graham: You're too kind, Alex. Thanks for the nice words. It's difficult to answer your question without more parameters. Where am I getting my replacements from? Street free agents? Dream scenarios? To make it fun, let's go with the latter.

On offense, quarterback is too easy. You could insert Drew Brees or Peyton Manning and automatically become a playoff contender. So I'll say cut Ernest Wilford and add Larry Fitzgerald. The Dolphins need a big, go-to target.

On defense, cut Matt Roth and insert DeMarcus Ware. See how easy it is to renovate a team?

Miami's special teams are in pretty good shape. I don't know if any one switch would make that noticeable of a difference. Brandon Fields is a good punter, and kicker Dan Carpenter has been fine. Good kickers are generally interchangeable.


David in Rochester, N.Y., writes: How could you leave Dwight Lowery off of the impact rookies list? A 4th round pick starting at corner in his first season. He has at least 5 passes defended and at least 5 tackles per game in his first 4 contests as a pro. Bad form to leave him off the list.

Tim Graham: For the impact rookie package you're referring to, only two rookies were chosen per division, and they were categorized as the first-year player having the biggest impact and the best under-the-radar rookie. Patriots linebacker Jerod Mayo is having the best year so far among AFC East rookies, and Lowery isn't under the radar. I made Dolphins defensive end Phillip Merling that choice.


Ben in Bristol writes: Why did the Bills cut Barnes? Was it blocking skills or his knack for fumbling when tackled? Just curious...

Tim Graham: The Bills wanted to upgrade their special teams, and Corey McIntyre excels at them. Darian Barnes had delivered some big hits, but McIntyre was the Atlanta Falcons special-teams captain last year. The Bills viewed the fullback differences as negligible.


Bruce in Windham, Ohio, writes: Can Buffalo make the playoffs? What will the Bombers do at East Canton on Friday?

Tim Graham: Great to hear from you, Bruce. I answer the mailbag questions on Saturdays, so the Windham-East Canton game has been played already. East Canton crushed us 41-12 (Windham is where I went to high school, so I'm obligated to answer any question from there). Not a good year for the Bombers ...

If the Bills don't make the playoffs, they will have experienced a calamitous collapse.


Conor in Charlottesville, Va., writes: Prior to the 2007 draft, I predicted that Trent Edwards would have the most immediate impact of any of the quarterbacks. Hence I was THRILLED when my Bills drafted him. Russell, Beck, and others may have more of a long-term impact, but I feel that quarterbacks who play for bad teams and behind weak lines in college and yet still play well are actually better prepared for the pressures of the NFL. Edwards played for a horrible 2-10 Stanford team where he was sacked all the time. Jay Cutler played for a mediocre Vanderbilt team where he was also pressed much of the time. These quarterbacks succeed immediately and show great maturity while system quarterbacks like Russell, Beck, Henne, Ryan Leaf, Steve Young, and many many others either take much more time to develop or flop completely. Do you think that proven grittiness or tough college experiences should be taken into account by NFL teams looking for more immediate quarterback replacements? And do you think that these quarterbacks are actually safer investments than many blue chippers?

Tim Graham: NFL teams take everything into account when evaluating players, especially quarterbacks, for the draft. But I don't think the aspect you describe is something that should be focused on. How a quarterback operates with pedestrian teammates can be just another piece of information, but can't be a pivotal factor.

When it comes to a quarterback, the classic aspects such as intelligence, leadership, arm strength and mobility always will be the determinants. Perhaps the prime example of a player who probably had it too easy in college and is having trouble coping in the NFL is Matt Leinart.


Robb in Tampa writes: Being a lifetime Dol-phan, the last few seasons have been...well...painful, to say the least. New head coaches, new promises, same lackluster results. I knew last year was rock bottom, and that there was just no way, be it by the law of averages or actual improvement Miami could do that bad again. My question then, is, If Miami wins at least 6-7 games, shouldn't Tony Sparano deserve to be in the running for coach of the year? Honestly, when was the last time a Rookie head coach improved his team several hundred percent in one season? I know it's early, but I'm just full of Dolphin optimism.

Tim Graham: Coach of the year awards generally are handed out for exceeding expectations. I saw many preseason predictions that had the Dolphins winning four, five and six games. One or two more than what people forecast won't be enough to win that award, but we all know how Herculean of a task it would be for Tony Sparano to come close to .500. The other thing that would be working against Sparano when it comes to accolades is that many people still think of the Dolphins as a Bill Parcells operation. Parcells will get a lot of the credit for any turnaround.


Michael in Atlanta writes: Lee Evans represents the framework of what you want to build your franchise around. How many rookies take the realm as captain going into their second year in the NFL. From day one, he never once complained about not getting to play right away as a rookie. And after having a very impressive rookie season, what does Lee Evans do, he goes back to Wisconsin to contine working towards his degree, while still making spring mini-camps. He never missed mini-camp, training camp, or mettings. Parents out there ask yourself a simple question: who would you like your childrens to look up to. For those of you who question his numbers look at the bigger picture. Buffalo ranked near the bottom of the NFL in Total Offense every season prior to 2008. Did Lee complain to the media when thi
ngs clearly didn't pan out as they should have, even knowing he was playing for a new contract? For you bloggers that compare him to Moss, Burress, Owens, Ocho-Johhnson whatever, look at what economist refer to as opportunity costs. Lee is a class act on the field and off the field who always puts teammates and his family first and he might kick your butt in some Call of Duty 4 or Tiger Woods as well!!!!! Congratulations Lee

Tim Graham: Not much to add to that. Here is the article Michael is referring to.


Ryan in Buffalo writes: Tim, wouldn't a future owner have to take into account the fact that moving the Bills to Toronto would eliminate the WNY fanbase? It seems to me like an owner would want to have both Toronto AND Buffalo. I very much doubt that many people in Buffalo would still support the team if they moved to Toronto. In my opinion, the best solution (for a new owner) would be to try and bridge the gap between the two fanbases to receive revenue from both markets. You could accomplish this by playing 2 regular season games in Toronto, and building a new stadium closer to Canada. I think that one on the waterfront in downtown Buffalo would work, or one close to Niagara Falls. If the NFL is really all about money, any new owner would be crazy to give up the Buffalo/Rochester market by moving the team to Toronto.

Tim Graham: Toronto has North America's fourth-largest metropolitan area. The Buffalo market doesn't factor into that ranking. I'm sure the prospective owner of a Toronto team would love to keep Buffalo as an ancillary fan base, but it wouldn't be necessary. Toronto has enough money to be self-sustaining.

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