When possessions don't count: 1, 2, 3, punt

October, 25, 2008
Oct 25
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By Tim Graham
Posted by ESPN.com's Tim Graham

DAVIE, Fla. -- Last week, ESPN Stats & Analysis dug up an enlightening nugget about the New England Patriots' offense without Tom Brady.

NFL Teams 3-And-Out Drives (2008)
TeamsGames
Played
Total DrivesNo. of 3-and-outs3-and-out pct
New Orleans7821012%
Arizona667913%
N.Y. Giants
665914%
Houston665914%
Atlanta6661117%
Indianapolis6641117%
San Diego
7751317%
Denver7751317%
Jacksonville6631117%
Minnesota7881719%
Dallas7821620%
N.Y. Jets
6691420%
New England
6681421%
Washington7771621%
Buffalo6711521%
San Francisco
7831822%
Philadelphia6731622%
Tampa Bay
7851922%
Carolina7851922%
Chicago7872023%
Pittsburgh6691623%
Green Bay
7781924%
Tennessee6711825%
Oakland6741926%
Miami6641727%
Cleveland6621727%
Baltimore6691928%
St. Louis
6722332%
Detroit6752432%
Seattle6712332%
Kansas City
6732534%
Cincinnati7812835%

The Patriots had gone three-and-out on 25 percent of their offensive possessions heading into Monday night's game against the Denver Broncos. The Patriots went three-and-out only 15 percent of the time last year.

I asked Stats & Analysis to run the numbers on all 32 teams to see how the AFC East compares. Researchers Jeremy Lundblad and Alok Pattani scoured the data.

The Patriots, Buffalo Bills and New York Jets are around the middle of the pack, bunched in a group of nine teams within two percentage points of each other.

The Jets have taken three snaps and punted on 20 percent of their possessions, tying them with the Dallas Cowboys for 11th-best.

After their prolific victory over the Broncos, the Patriots have gone three-and-out 21 percent of the time, tying them with the Bills for 13th.

The Miami Dolphins rank 25th. They've gone three-and-out 27 percent of the time.

Dolphins coach Tony Sparano grimaced when I asked him what kind of psychological affect a three-and-out series can have on a team.

"I think three-and-outs on offense can be just a little bit frustrating that way," Sparano said. "In my mind, it never really gets you into any kind of a rhythm.

"Third down is such a separate game plan than anything else. So, first and second down and here we are -- boom! -- you're at third down. So you never kind of got to bite into the first- and second-down game plan enough.

"And then with us, when you have a young team like that and you don't get that kind of continuity going and those kinds of drives going, I think that sometimes you worry that it might take too long."

Sparano bemoaned his team's inability to get a first down after winning the coin toss and deferring to take the ball at the start of the second half. Big waste.

"That's a bad three-and-out," he said. "It really is."

Before last Sunday's loss to the Baltimore Ravens, the Dolphins failed to make a first down on every one of their possessions after receiving the kickoff to start the game or the second half.

Aside from not scoring, significant side effects of a three-and-out series are defensive
fatigue and real-estate erosion.

"It's not a good situation," Sparano said. "Obviously, in our league one of the keys to victory is going to be that we keep the defense off the field, especially when we're a young defense and you got some young guys running around out there.

"Usually, three-and-outs equal short field position. You're losing the field-position battle then because if you're three-and-out, you gain no yards and now the punt. So all of a sudden, little by little, they're inching up the field, and they haven't done anything.

"When you're a defensive player you're sitting out there kind of saying 'OK, now I have to go back out and, the field is shorter.' "

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