Scouts Inc.: Taking stock of AFC East

October, 31, 2008
Oct 31
3:02
PM ET
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By Tim Graham
Posted by Scouts Inc.'s Keith Kidd

You'd think there would be a clearer picture in the AFC East with half the season behind us. But you'd be wrong.

Then again, the next two weeks -- during which the surprising division-leading Bills face the Jets and Patriots -- should tell us a lot more. Can the AFC East send more than one team to the playoffs? Is there a Super Bowl contender in the bunch? A quick state-of-the-division address:

New England
Matt Cassel has been efficient and seems to be getting more comfortable in the system, but there still are concerns. His pocket presence and field vision leave something to be desired, and the right side of the offensive line has made it tougher for him to avoid sacks. Getting healthy at running back would help ease the pressure on Cassel and make the offense more dynamic.

But New England still is the team to beat in the AFC East. With a front seven that ranks up there with any in the league, the Patriots will stay in games because they can stop the run. They have great coaching, the system works and they have managed a 5-2 start despite a virtual worst-case scenario unfolding in the season's first half. The schedule is favorable, and New England is the only team in the division with a recent track record of winning. The Patriots may not be Super Bowl contenders, but the contenders still need to watch out for the Pats.

Buffalo
The next two games are critical. The Bills simply can't start 0-3 against AFC East opponents (after losing to Miami last week) and expect to stay in the hunt for a division title.

This team has plenty going for it. Trent Edwards has been very efficient. The offensive line is big and physical. Lee Evans is a true No. 1 receiver who gives the passing game a three-level threat and forces opponents to choose between maximum coverage and eight in the box. Marcus Stroud has galvanized the defense. The special teams are the NFL's best.

But the Bills need help in key areas. They must get more out of Marshawn Lynch (averaging 3.7 yards per carry) as the weather turns. The run blocking has been inconsistent, and Orchard Park in late December is where passing teams go to die. Someone needs to wake up rookie James Hardy, especially now that Josh Reed is hurt. Injuries have hurt the defense, and cornerback Jabari Greer could be a weak link. The good news: The Bills are extremely well-coached, which may help them squeeze into a Wild Card spot.

New York
There's something missing here. First, the Jets lack an identity on offense. One week they're a running team and the next they are a passing team. The pricey offensive line hasn't been great, so Brett Favre has had to take over when the run game stalls. Trouble is, Favre is a turnover waiting to happen. And on the flip side, the Jets aren't making enough plays of their own in the secondary. New York can only hope its young talent on the back end matures quickly and starts getting the defense off the field on third downs.

The Jets aren't a bad team. Favre has some playmakers, and the front seven clamps down on the run. But this group isn't quite good enough to overcome mistakes -- and there have been plenty -- against quality opponents. In other words, wait 'til next year.

Miami
Establish a plan. Build a program. Who knew it was this easy? On paper, the Dolphins didn't seem to stand a chance to compete this season. But Bill Parcells has put together an excellent staff, drafted well and made the pickup of the offseason (Chad Pennington) to point Miami in the right direction.

This Dolphins' best qualities are their line play, on both sides of the ball, and their creativity. The "Wildcat" enhances everything the Dolphins do on offense. Still, they lack a legitimate No. 1 receiver, so opponents can focus on the run and force Pennington to beat them. Miami's front seven is tough and talented, but the secondary is a sieve. There are still too many holes to make a playoff run.

There is a lot of football left, but even with Brady in street clothes, it looks like the Pats still rule the roost in the AFC East.

Scouts Inc. watches games, breaks down film and studies football from all angles for ESPN.com.

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