In a week, Jets chances soar 525 percent

The last time I saw a swing this hard, Steve Balboni was on his heels in the batter's box.

Our friends at AccuScore computed how unlikely it was that the New York Jets could go from almost out of the playoff mix to in control of their own destiny in the span of a week.

AccuScore gave the Jets an 11.6 percent chance to make the playoffs heading into Sunday's road game against the undefeated Indianapolis Colts. That probability ranked eighth among the AFC's wild-card hopefuls (after the four teams leading their divisions).

But everything broke favorably for the Jets in Week 16. The Baltimore Ravens (58.6 percent likelihood to make the playoffs), Denver Broncos (37.2 percent), Miami Dolphins (20.2 percent), Tennessee Titans (18.1 percent) and Jacksonville Jaguars (14.8 percent) all lost.

And the Colts pulled Peyton Manning with almost six minutes left in the third quarter. Before the game, AccuScore pegged the Colts' probability of beating the Jets if they stuck with their starters at 70.6 percent.

Because the Jets are in a win-and-get-in situation, their chances of making the playoffs are exactly the same as beating the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday at the Meadowlands.

AccuScore gives the Jets a 72.5 percent shot at winning. Their average margin of victory after 10,000 simulations is by a comfortable 8.9 points.