ESPN NFL

Posted by ESPN.com's Tim Graham

Jim in Port St. Lucie, Fla., writes: I don't know why people can't see that it's the coaching staff that makes New England such a great team. They won with three differant quarterbacks. They let go of some really good players because they did not want to fit into the system. And yet without these payers they where still winning.

Tim Graham: I have to disagree that the Patriots won with three quarterbacks under Bill Belichick. The timing of Tom Brady's emergence with the Patriots' immediate and prolonged success raised the legitimate debate of whether Brady was the common denominator and not Belichick.

We're getting a better idea with Matt Cassel's emergence and a variety of other significant injuries that the organization is self-sustaining. But let's also remember the coaching staff has experienced considerable turnover under Belichick. Charlie Weis is gone. Eric Mangini is gone. The organization hasn't missed a beat with new coaches over the years either.

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Michael in Fort Lauderdale, Fla., writes: What will happen with the QB situation in miami next year and what has to happen for the dolphins to make the playoffs this year?

Tim Graham: The way I see it, Chad Pennington will be back in 2009 as the starter, and Chad Henne will continue to absorb as much as he can from the classy veteran until he gets his turn. Pennington is playing at too high of a level to make any changes.

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Mr. Anonymous is Tonawanda, N.Y., writes: Hey Tim, this question may seem a little out there, but if you had to put a percentage on it, how likely would you say the bills are to around and make the playoffs?

Tim Graham: Your question isn't "out there," but understand my answer is not based on any Las Vegas-style computations. I give the Bills a 25 percent chance to make the playoffs. Their problem is they don't control their own destiny anymore. They need to win, and they need all the right teams to lose.

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Ryan in Shreveport, La., writes: If the Detriot Lions at this point in the season played the Florida Gators at the swamp, do you think they could make it a close game?

Tim Graham: Straight from the Barstool Debate Hall of Fame, this one always generates some good conversation. But as great as the Gators are and as putrid as the Lions are, it still would be boys against men. The jump from college to pro is too enormous when it comes to conditioning, power, game-plan complexities and simple experience. The Lions would shut them out.

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Josh in Norfolk, Va., writes: Mr. Graham -- I appreciate you taking the time to answer questions. Devone Bess has quietly been becoming my favorite Miami receiver. Did you see his catch last week where he drug 1 or two Patriots an extra 5 yards after the catch? What do you think of him and his potential as a premier receiver and return man?

Tim Graham: Davone Bess has proved to be a great pickup for the Dolphins, who were surprised when nobody drafted the receiver from Hawaii and quickly singed him as a free agent. Bess was Colt Brennan's top target and probably was stigmatized by the same labels slapped on Brennan, that their offense was the product of June Jones' system. Bess also was knocked as not being fast enough or big enough for the NFL.

He has been a revelation, but I haven't seen anything yet that would lead me to use the adjective "premier" in describing Bess' top-end potential. Then again, with Greg Camarillo out with a season-ending knee injury, we'll have a better chance to see what he can do. He'll get a bigger opportunity to make plays down the homestretch.

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James in Boston writes: You mentioned the Patriots running it in with 37 seconds left and I want to know, generally, what do you believe (or the blogger team believes) is the consesus "proper" decision in this situation. With a comfortable lead, but not enough time to kneel and end the game, on a fourth down do you (1) kick a field goal, (2)run it in or (3) kneel and turn the ball over to the opposing team. I am of the opinion that to select (1) is truly running up the score since the game is over and you have tacked on three nearly impossible to prevent (by the defense) points. To select (3)is to give up your power to dictate the game and potentially get injuries on defense (which are more likely when the opposing team attempts to run and gun and cut the lead). Selecting (2) gives the opposing team a fair chance to stop your team without giving the impression of giving up on your offense. If they stop you they've earned the right to cut the lead, if they don't than tough luck.

Tim Graham: I partially agree with you assessment. To hear professional players whine about another team running up the score deserves a specific response: Stop them next time.

But I don't think Bill Belichick opted to run the ball rather than kick a field goal simply to give the Dolphins a sporting chance.

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Joe from Ocala, Fla., writes: Who should the Jets want to win this week, Pittsburgh or New England? I really hope they end in a tie!!! LOL! That would be sweet! What is your opinion? What is better for the Jets?

Tim Graham: The Jets have to root for the Steelers to give them a cushion in the AFC East standings. The Steelers should finish atop the AFC North regardless of what happens Sunday (and the Ravens taking over that division wouldn't mean much to the Jets), but the Patriots falling back a game would create a lot more drama among the other three AFC East teams, fighting for a wild-card entry.

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Chris in Union, N.J., writes: In your honest opinion, what do you think Buffalo's chances of making the playoffs are? Given that they beat 2 out of 3 of the division opponents, combined with wins against the 49s and Broncos, do they have at least a shot at a wildcard spot or is it more realistic to say that they are playing for draft picks at this point? I've been a lifelong Buffalo Bills fan and I have come to terms with the disappointment that they give me season after season, but to start out 5-1 and be at only 6-5 now? I just need a ray of hope that there is still a slim possibility that maybe Favre, Cassel, and Pennington all go down to injuries and the Bills sit atop the division again.

Tim Graham: The Bills are in trouble, Chris. They'll be competitive over their final five games and could win more than they lose. But 9-7 isn't going to cut it. They'll need to go at least 4-1 in their remaining games.

As for your scenario of all of the other AFC East quarterbacks going down with injuries and those teams falling apart, the Bills still would have to take care of their own business. Are you convinced they can?

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David in Fort Myers, Fla., writes: How much do you think the loss of Greg Cama"hero" will hurt the Dolphins playoff chances. Honestly with Indy, Baltimore, NE and possibly NYJ vying for spots, I was worried before we lost big 83. Would you consider S
t Louis a trap game for the emotionally spent Phins?

Tim Graham: First off, nobody is a bigger fan of Greg Camarillo's success story than I am. I've written about how he survived from a walk-on punter at Stanford, undrafted, cut twice, the whole spiel. He's a great guy, too.

But I think the Dolphins can overcome his absence with Ernest Wilford and Davone Bess taking on larger roles. Wilford has been inactive for a couple months because he doesn't play special teams and couldn't outplay Camarillo.

Wilford signed a four-year, $13 million contract with $6 million in guarantees the day the free-agent market opened. He has one catch for 15 yards. This is Wilford's chance to step in and help the Dolphins win.

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Mr. Anonymous in Miami writes: Patriots "almost went unbeaten"??? They had a perfect season: 16-0. There is no official record that keeps season and postseason together.

Tim Graham: Keep telling yourself that. Last time I checked, the NFL season ends when the Super Bowl game clock expires. The Patriots went undefeated in the regular season. They didn't go undefeated for the season.

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Chris in Los Angeles writes: Hey Tim, with this latest loss, do you believe as I do that the Dolphins will still make the playoffs? No matter what happens this season I still consider the fact that we are in the beginning stages of something special! What are some of the things you think we need that will make us yearly contenders for the playoffs and ultimately the Super Bowl?

Tim Graham: The way I see it heading into Week 13, the Dolphins are not a postseason team. They are close, though, and there still are five games to go. They have a shot. But my AFC playoffs teams are the Jets (AFC East champs), Steelers (AFC North champs), Titans (AFC South champs) and Broncos (AFC West champs) with the Colts and Patriots as wild-card entries.

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Joe from Parts Unknown writes: Tim, why can't the Pats either franchise or make Casell a transitional player and then trade him for draft picks? With Brady being from San Francisco, his child in California and the large amount of interest both he and his gilfriend have in California, both professionally and personally, why not make a trade with either 49ers or Raiders? God knows both of them need QB's. i know the raiders have Rusell but he is proven nothing in 2 yrs. THANKS Joe

Tim Graham: The Patriots have the option to put a franchise or transition tag on Cassel, but that is unlikely. A franchise tag would give Cassel a contract that averages out the NFL's top-five quarterback salaries, and that's too exorbitant for him. The franchise number for a quarterback in 2009 will be about $14 million. There's no way the Patriots would give him as much as they're paying Brady.

And if the Patriots were to franchise Cassel in hopes of trading him and are unable to do so, then they will have roughly 20 percent of their salary cap money tied up in quarterbacks, including one they hope never sees the field.

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Matt in Philadelphia writes: Can New York Jets fans start to have hope for a Super Bowl Championship?

Tim Graham: Go ahead and start clearing your personal schedule for late January and early February. I'm not declaring the Jets will win the AFC, but they're good enough to do it.

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And now for what is turning into a weekly segment -- reaction to these Matt Cassel posts:

This is the original Cassel-Brady post that started the firestorm.

This is the followup in which I spoke with some NFL types about their take.

Matt in Oklahoma: hey tim, i have been wondering on this subject for awhile now, so hopefully you can get back to me soon. Matt Cassel is obviously doing a great job coming off the bench at NE, so one might think that as long as this kind of year continues, it wouldnt be in Cassel's best interest to stay around and continue to backup Brady. a team starving for some life (like the chiefs) might find it a serious advantage to sign him (i htink he is a free agent after this year) and not waste a draft pick on a QB when they need to use it elsewhere. That being said, where do you think that Cassel might go?

Tim Graham: It's too early to know what the best fits for Matt Cassel will be. Teams still have at least five more weeks to evaluate not only Cassel, but also who they have on their rosters and what they might want to do in the draft given their position. But you mentioned the Chiefs. I get the impression they're excited about Tyler Thigpen.

David in Miami writes: Tim, great work as usual read your blog at work all the time. I am a huge dolphins fan and still believe we have a shot at the playoffs with our remaining schedule. Our only real test should be the bills in toronto. Even if we lose to the jets the last game that would still put us at 10-6, what are your thoughts on our chances? And I still believe Matt Cassel is overrated, he making ok throws but throws that anyone would expect our of an nfl quarterback and all of a sudden hes the next Brady? wake up people, he is a product of the patriots short passing game. He completed 22 passes shorter then 10 yards against the dolphins and his receivers averaged 8.6 yards after the catch. He will not be good anywhere else except with pro bowl caliber talent such as Moss and Welker.

Clayton in Augusta writes: I know this is a crazy question right now, but what will the Patriots due with Matt Cassel next year. He is obviously a starting NFL QB. His rookie contract is up after this year and you have the best QB in the NFL coming off a major knee operation. What are the chances the Pats keep Cassel around as insurance? It seems crazy to lose a player with his talent fort nothing. If they slapped the franchise tag on him they could then get a 1st round pick for him right? Can you let me know what some of the possibilities are and what is the most likely scenario for this gifted young man who has been hidden behind stars, and might outshine them all. Thank you very much, keep up the great writing. SEMPER FI

Chris in Wichita, Kan., writes: Hey Tim, Sorry about all the heat you took over the Cassel article - I'm with you on the question (I don't have an answer though). I am writing about Favre and his future with the NFL, but not as a player. I think it's become apparent that Favre could step in and be a quarterback coach for any NFL team, and I was wondering if this is anything he has ever discussed before? Do you think he has the skill set to be a teacher and lead a quarterback through a game that has spat so many college hopefuls down to reality? Best!

Ben in New York writes: hey Tim Just want to start off by saying i have enjoyed reading your blogs and that they are very entertaining. I was looking through your archives and found a write-up that i found hilarious. The headline Pats' Brady indispensable. Cassel? Not so much Please welcome, Mr. Catastrophe. Jeffri Chadiha's list of the NFL's most indispensable players named Patriots quarterback Tom Brady the most critical to his team's success. That must make backup Matt Cassel the player most likely to doom a season the moment he buttons his chinstrap for real. I fo
und this soooo funny considering how opposite the reality is and that you never know what can happen in football. so many busts and suprise players. at the time your entry made so much sense which is also why it is funny. anyways the jets are the best team in afc and they will make some noise in the postseason. also, the jets recievers are extremely underrated. just putting that out there. and one more thing: do you think the afc east is the best division in football? thanks, ben

Tim Graham: Here are the links to Jeffri Chadiha's preseason story and my related blog item that you referenced. I spoke to Cassel during training camp specifically on that premise, that if Brady was the NFL's most indispensable, then Cassel must be the scariest player off the bench. Cassel didn't find me all that amusing.

I wholeheartedly agree that the Jets' receivers are often overlooked, and the Pro Bowl fan balloting is a prime example. Neither Laveranues Coles nor Jerricho Cotchery is in the top five. As for the AFC East being the best division in football, I'll have to disagree. I think it's the NFC East -- but not by a lot.

Aaron in Phoenix writes: Hey Tim, Don't let these people get on you about this question. You gave great examples plus in the past the Patriots have done the samething before with Drew Bledsoe. If people would pay attention to thier history they would see that hall of famers have emerged from Matt Cassels situation. Brett Favre for pro bowler Chris Miller, Steve Young for Joe Montana, Tommy Maddox was seen as a possible franchise quarterback out of the circus people called the XFL where he won the MVP and when He got hurt The sport was blessed with Big Ben. History would indicate that this is a very valid question and your doing a great job . I'm really suprised all of these causual football fans can't see this . I can see this and I'm only 24. Thanks Aaron A Future sports writer

Chris in New York City writes: Just wanted to tell you to keep up the good work. The Cassel/Brady article was informative well written. Anyone who criticizes you clearly didn't read the article. Keep up the good writing and write more articles that push the envelope.

Mr. Anonymous in Buffalo writes: I wrote about the same thing in my blog. Why not keep Cassel over Brady. You are going to get the same level of performance from Cassel as Brady. Keeping Cassel is smart for the very reason you said, and that is keeping Cassel would prolong their ability to stay on top. Any which way they are going to have two first rounders this year, and who knows what else. That is after they slap the tag on Cassel.