Sunday, July 4, 2010
Football Outsiders use Jets for sneak peek
The mathemagicians at Football Outsiders are close to releasing their annual yearbook.
Luckily for New York Jets fans, Gang Green's dossier is the free sample chapter to promote the looming release of Football Outsiders Almanac 2010.
If you enjoy smart, statistical-based analysis, then you can immerse yourself in this reference staple. Any given paragraph of this book can provide information you didn't know could be tracked.
To get an idea of the type of insight you can pick up, here are highlights from the Jets' section, written by Football Outsiders managing editor Bill Barnwell:
- Football Outsiders projects the Jets to win 9.8 games, but they have a 39 percent chance of winning 11 or more.
- The Jets have a 7 percent chance to win six or fewer games.
- The odds of opposing kickers missing five straight field goals, which happened in the postseason, was 5,292-to-1.
- Cornerback Darrelle Revis limited receivers to 3.5 yards a catch. The league average for qualifying cornerbacks was 7.5 yards. Revis was targeted 96 times, more than any other cornerback.
- Football Outsiders "Revisized" other players' stats to put his season in context: "A player playing at Revis' level while getting a comparable usage rate at a different position in 2009 would have set the NFL passing record by nearly 500 yards, beat out Jerry Rice for the single-season receiving record or run for 2,000 yards while averaging a record-tying 6.4 yards per carry."
- Peyton Manning's "Revisized" season would have given him 5,532 passing yards. Brandon Marshall would have gained 1,922 receiving yards.
- Among the 11 quarterbacks from 1978 through 2008 with statistical seasons most similar to Mark Sanchez's are David Woodley (1981), Troy Aikman (1990) and John Elway (1984). Then again JaMarcus Russell (2008) and Tony Banks (1996) are in there, too.
- The Jets' defense forced opponents to go three-and-out on a league-best 34.4 percent of drives.
- The Jets allowed an NFL-high 10.6 yards on every screen pass against them. On offense, they tried an NFL-low 10 screen passes for a measly 2.6 yards a try.