Monday, September 6, 2010
Putting a percentage on what Revis means
By Tim Graham
There are multiple ways to quantify Darrelle Revis' importance to the New York Jets.
You can, of course, look at the dollars the Jets are giving the star cornerback with his new contract.
AccuScore had another idea. The sports computation service wanted to find out how much influence Revis would have on the Jets' chances to win the AFC East or earn a wild-card berth.
Based on 10,000 season simulations, AccuScore predicts the Jets have a 36.0 percent chance of winning the division and a 51.5 percent chance of making the playoffs with Revis.
A coin flip to make the playoffs? AccuScore's hard drive must not like that Mark Sanchez data.
Anyway, AccuScore pegged the Jets chances without Revis: 26.2 percent for the division title and 37.8 percent for the playoffs.
That's a major drop. How much would you pay for a player who would improve your odds of success by 10 to 15 percent?