AccuScore's forecast through four weeks gives the Patriots a 40.4 percent chance of winning the AFC East and a 63.4 percent chance of reaching the playoffs with Moss on the roster.
Without him, their chances drop to 33.2 percent for the division title and 52.9 percent for the postseason.
That's a 10.5 percent drop for the Patriots' playoff hopes.
Who would replace Moss in the offense? He's a first-ballot Hall of Famer and a game-breaker. His speed and uncanny leaping ability keep defenses honest and open up more possibilities for Wes Welker in the slot and tight ends Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski.
AccuScore president Stephen Oh writes that young targets such as Brandon Tate and Hernandez "appear capable of handling more looks with Moss gone. However, while Tate has two return touchdowns and some great physical skills, he has zero career receiving touchdowns. Randy Moss is a proven touchdown machine."
Then again, Tom Brady won three Super Bowls with an assortment of workmanlike receivers.