Thursday, October 14, 2010
No Rodgers equals 22-point Dolphins swing
Over the past 10 months or so, New York Jets detractors have been quick to belittle last year's playoff run as a gift, courtesy of the Indianapolis Colts' and Cincinnati Bengals' junior varsity squads in Weeks 16 and 17.
Many of those critics are Miami Dolphins fans, but I have a feeling they'll gladly take a victory against the injury-plagued Green Bay Packers on Sunday if star quarterback Aaron Rodgers doesn't play.
AccuScore calculates the absence of Rodgers and tight end Jermichael Finley (already ruled out) would bring a 22-point swing in the Dolphins' favor.
If Rodgers plays, then the Packers have a 65 percent chance to win.
If he's sidelined, then the Dolphins have a 57 percent chance to win. In AccuScore's 10,000 simulations, Packers backup quarterback Matt Flynn averages about a 66 passer rating and more interceptions than touchdown passes.
The Dolphins have a healthy 75 percent chance of scoring an upset at Lambeau Field if Rodgers doesn't play and running backs Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams combine to rush for more than 100 yards. If all that happens, then the Dolphins have a 75 percent chance of winning.