Thursday, October 28, 2010
Patriots own big edge even if Favre plays
How much easier of a time will the New England Patriots have Sunday if Brett Favre doesn't play?
The Minnesota Vikings don't have a great chance either way, but without Favre the likelihood they win in Gillette Stadium drops from 39 percent to 27 percent.
If Favre can recover from a broken ankle and play, AccuScore's 10,000 simulations project he will commit two turnovers. But if he has no more than one interception, Randy Moss scores at least one touchdown in his Foxborough homecoming and Percy Harvin gains at least 50 yards from scrimmage, then the Vikings become modest 52 percent favorites.
In other words, the Patriots ought to be 6-1 by Sunday night.