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Friday, November 12, 2010
QB switch won't impact Dolphins this week


Behold! I give unto you the missing AccuScore report.

Thursdays are when I share the AccuScore forecast -- and an accompanying video starring Jenny Dell -- for each AFC East game. But I posted only three yesterday.

That's because the report for Sunday's game between the Tennessee Titans and Miami Dolphins was calculated before we learned Chad Pennington would replace Chad Henne at quarterback.

Fear not. After reaching out to AccuScore co-founder and director Stephen Oh for any updates, I learned the QB change made a negligible difference for this matchup, statistically speaking.

So the Dolphins remain 57 percent favorites over the Titans in Sun Life Stadium and win by an average of 2.5 points in AccuScore's 10,000 computer simulations.

If the Dolphins throw no more than one interception and hold Titans running back Chris Johnson to under 100 yards, then the Dolphins' chances rise to 78 percent. But if Johnson does eclipse the century mark, then the Titans become a 65 percent favorite.

In AccuScore's simulations, Randy Moss averaged three catches for 42 yards in his Titans debut.