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Thursday, November 18, 2010
Bears at Dolphins will be a RB showdown


The AccuScore forecast is razor-thin for Thursday night's game between the Chicago Bears and Miami Dolphins in Sun Life Stadium.

In AccuScore's 10,000 simulations, the Dolphins won 52 percent of the time by an average of 0.8 points.

When you think of the matchup, quarterbacks are prominent in the discussion. Jay Cutler can be a disaster on any given night, while the Dolphins are starting their third-stringer, Tyler Thigpen.

But AccuScore focuses on the run game. The Dolphins have the slight edge because Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams averaged 4 yards per carry in the simulations, while Bears running backs averaged 3 yards.

If the Bears can hold Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown to under 100 yards combined, then their chances to win climb to 66 percent. If Williams and Brown top that mark, then the Dolphins' chances soar to 82 percent.