Thursday, November 18, 2010
Bills still big underdogs to 2-7 Bengals
Can the Buffalo Bills, a week removed from being oh-fer the season, put together a winning streak?
The Bills scored their first victory last week against the Detroit Lions and will face another two-win team Sunday, when they play the Cincinnati Bengals in Paul Brown Stadium.
AccuScore doesn't see the Bills making it two in a row.
Some readers scoffed when AccuScore made the Bills a big favorite to beat the Lions sans Matthew Stafford. The average margin of victory was 2.8 points in AccuScore's 10,000 simulations. The Bills won 14-12.
But AccuScore doesn't calculate a favorable result for Buffalo this week. Cincinnati is a 68 percent favorite to win this week (fifth-highest percentage of Week 11 projections) by an average of six points.
Cedric Benson has a 40 percent chance of rushing for at least 75 yards and one touchdown. If he does, then the Bengals increase to 84 percent favorites.
The Bills can swing the odds in their favor if they can intercept Carson Palmer at least two times. Then their chances would increase to 47 percent.
A major problem with that: The Bills have a league-low two interceptions, and their defensive backs have none.