Friday, November 26, 2010
Dolphins on equal footing with Raiders
Despite that garbage fire that took place in Sun Life Stadium last week and a cross-continent trip this weekend, AccuScore gives the Miami Dolphins as much chance to win as the Oakland Raiders on Sunday at Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum.
In its 10,000 computer simulations of the matchup, AccuScore considered Tyler Thigpen the Dolphins' starting quarterback. On average, Thigpen completed just 50 percent of his passes and had a 55 passer rating.
AccuScore also plugged in Chad Henne at quarterback to see how much difference he would make. Henne completed 55 percent of his throws and had a 68 passer rating. Not prolific by any means.
Still, the margin remained close. So narrow, in fact, that the Raiders won 50.3 percent of the simulations, but the Dolphins scored an average of 19.0 points compared to the Raiders' 18.8 points.
The key would appear to be Raiders running back Darren McFadden. If he can rush for at least 50 yards and average at least 4.5 yards a carry, then the Raiders become 68 percent favorites and win by a average of seven points.