Monday, January 3, 2011
Super Bowl odds: Patriots huge, Jets teeny
What are the odds the New York Jets can knock off the Indianapolis Colts, then the New England Patriots, then the last remaining AFC survivor (Pittsburgh Steelers, Baltimore Ravens or Kansas City Chiefs) all on the road and then win the Super Bowl?
How about 3 percent?
Those are the chances AccuScore gives the Jets of running the postseason table and hoisting the Lombardi Trophy, as Jets head coach Rex Ryan predicted on the side of ESPN's training camp tour bus.
Only the Chiefs (1.1 percent) and Seattle Seahawks (0.2 percent) generated smaller odds than the Jets in AccuScore's computations.
AccuScore's percentage for the Jets, based on 10,000 simulations of the tournament bracket, matched the opening line in Las Vegas. Without the juice, the Jets have a 3 percent chance in the legal sportsbooks of winning the title.
The New England Patriots dominated AccuScore's simulations, winning the Super Bowl 35.4 percent of the time.
That was more than twice as appealing as the next team, the Pittsburgh Steelers, at 13.2 percent.
Las Vegas calculated the chances at 31.7 percent of paying off a Patriots betting slip.