Thursday, January 13, 2011
Massaging stats to see how Jets can win
AccuScore is flinging around all sorts of numbers to forecast Sunday's playoff game between the New York Jets and New England Patriots in Gillette Stadium.
The Patriots won 78 percent of AccuScore's simulations by an average of nine points.
But -- and there always are several buts when it comes to AccuScore -- there are ways the Jets can tilt the game in their favor.
The Jets must dominate on the ground because Mark Sanchez was shaky in AccuScore's 10,000 simulations. Sanchez completed 56 percent of his passes, averaged 1.1 touchdowns and 1.2 interceptions per sim and had a 72 passer rating.
The Patriots held Jets running backs LaDainian Tomlinson and Shonn Greene to less than 4 yards a carry and 95 yards combined.
But when Tomlinson and Green raised their average to 5 yards a carry and combine for more than 100 yards, the Jets won 50 percent of the time.
In 16 percent of the sims, Sanchez had zero interceptions and Tom Brady threw one -- what?!?! The Jets won 50 percent of those games, too.
When the Jets committed zero turnovers and Sanchez completed 60 percent of his passes, the Jets became 57 percent favorites.
But Brady also threw two touchdowns and no interceptions in 30 percent of the simulations. The Patriots won 90 percent of them.