AFC East: Aaron Hernandez

On Wednesday ESPN put together an expert panel to determine which team will is poised to dominate in 2015.Insider That is three years and four seasons from now.

Here is how things shaped up in the AFC East:

No 2: New England Patriots

Thoughts: Earlier Wednesday I wrote a column that New England will struggle when Tom Brady retires. Our panel thinks Brady will still be around in 2015 and gave New England a "nine" rating at quarterback. That's debatable. Brady will be 38 years old in 2015. Is Brady still playing football? And if so, is Brady still elite pushing 40? The article also ignores tight end Aaron Hernandez's contract situation. He's a free agent in two years, along with teammate Rob Gronkowski. Hernandez is probably not on New England's roster in 2015 unless the Patriots find a way to make "Gronk" and Hernandez two of the highest-paid players at the same position. That's not likely.

No. 16: New York Jets

Thoughts: The Jets are an interesting team. Like the Patriots, they are built to win now. It’s hard to say where New York will be in four seasons. ESPN's Trent Dilfer says he still loves the talent and potential of quarterback Mark Sanchez, but I disagree. Entering his fourth season, I think Sanchez pretty much is what he is. Of course, Sanchez can play better over the next few years and reduce turnovers. But he’s not a future perennial Pro Bowler in waiting. Pro Bowl cornerback Darrelle Revis will be 30 in 2015. Maybe he’s still the best cornerback in football at that time. Maybe not. New York’s drafts also can be hit or miss.

No. 22: Buffalo Bills

Thoughts: Things are looking up for Buffalo this season, but I think the Bills were a victim of circumstance in this case. The Bills haven’t made the postseason in 13 years. Therefore, I would assume it was very hard for our expert panel to put any stock in Buffalo’s future several years down the line. But there are some good, young players on the roster. Running back C.J. Spiller has potential. So does defensive tackle Marcell Dareus and rookie corner Stephon Gilmore. No. 1 receiver Steve Johnson also is still just 25. I still have questions about the long-term potential of quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick. But the Bills have potential to build something.

No. 28: Miami Dolphins

Thoughts: ESPN’s panel sees too many questions about the direction of Dolphins. Is rookie Ryan Tannehill the long-term solution quarterback? Is Joe Philbin a viable head coach? Is Pro Bowl left tackle Jake Long staying in Miami beyond 2012? There are a lot of questions in Miami. The Dolphins aren’t ready to compete now, and they have to make a lot of the right moves in order to compete in the future. Only the Oakland Raiders, Jacksonville Jaguars, Minnesota Vikings and Cleveland Browns had lower rankings than the Dolphins in these future Power Rankings.
BradyMark J. Rebilas/US PresswireWithout Tom Brady under center, the New England Patriots become just an ordinary team.
The New England Patriots have played in five Super Bowls -- winning three -- since they drafted quarterback Tom Brady in the sixth round in 2000. They also have eight division titles in that span, and Brady and coach Bill Belichick recently became the winningest quarterback-coach combo in NFL history.

But all of that comes to an end when Brady retires.

Brady, who turns 35 in August, says he wants to play in New England until he's 40. That is great news for the Patriots, because they will struggle the second the future Hall of Famer hangs it up.

Things that have become foreign to New England the past dozen years will become routine again. New England will have down years and miss the playoffs -- just like everybody else. The Patriots won't survive various injuries -- just like everybody else. The Patriots also will run through a few quarterbacks, too -- just like everybody else.

On Wednesday, ESPN.com examined potentially dominant teams in 2015 . At that point, I think New England's easy run over the AFC East will be a thing of the past.

Here are four reasons New England will struggle in the post-Brady era:

No. 1: Patriots won't immediately find Brady's replacement

Brady's story is once in a generation. He's a former sixth-round pick who slipped through the cracks to become one of the top five quarterbacks of all time. Brady had the drive and “it" factor to become the greatest player in franchise history. Brady often is compared to Joe Montana, because they share a similar story about 20 years apart.

The chances of New England finding another Brady anytime soon are slim.

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Ryan Mallett
Stew Milne/US PresswireWill Ryan Mallett be ready to take over for Tom Brady when the future Hall of Famer is ready to hang it up?
Patriot fans will scream Ryan Mallett is a future franchise quarterback. But how does anyone really know, considering the 2011 third-round pick hasn't thrown an NFL pass?

What about Brian Hoyer? The undrafted quarterback has shown small flashes but certainly not enough to warrant Pro Bowl status. The drop-off going from Brady to 99 percent of other quarterbacks will be steep.

Even if Mallett or Hoyer turn out to be viable starting quarterbacks, neither will be nearly as good as Brady. Is Mallett or Hoyer a future Hall of Famer? Probably not. Will either quarterback perennially make the Pro Bowl? Not likely.

New England has been able to overcome poor defense, injuries and at times average receivers to still be competitive. Brady was great enough to carry the Patriots through various weaknesses. That no longer will be a luxury in New England. It will be much harder to get everything right with other areas of the team, especially if the quarterback position is in flux.

No. 2: The offense is old

Brady is turning 35 in August. No. 1 receiver Wes Welker is 31. Starting receiver Brandon Lloyd is 30. Longtime left tackle Matt Light just retired this offseason. Guard Brian Waters may follow, if not this year then soon after.

When Brady is gone, it's likely all of these important offensive pieces will be gone as well. A Patriot offense without Brady, Welker, Lloyd, Light, Waters, etc. means New England is virtually starting over in a few years.

The Patriots still have a couple young stars in tight end Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez. But consider this: One tight end probably will bolt in free agency. Both Gronkowski and Hernandez -- two of the top five players at their position -- have rookie contracts set to expire in two years. Both will be looking for huge paydays, and New England can't do that with two players at the same position.

New England most likely will throw the money truck at Gronkowski, perhaps making him the highest-paid tight end, and let Hernandez walk. Brady also will be 37 and possibly retired or on his last legs by the time both tight ends will look for extensions. Returning to New England's offense long-term won't be as attractive two years from now for a pending free agent like Hernandez.

No. 3: Sun is setting on Belichick

Belichick just turned 60 years old. How much longer will Belichick coach the Patriots?

Belichick has coached in the NFL in some capacity for 37 years. He is approaching his fourth decade in the league.

Even head coaches have a shelf life. Belichick currently is the NFL's fourth-oldest head coach behind Tom Coughlin (65) of the New York Giants, Romeo Crennel (64) of the Kansas City Chiefs and, by a few months, Chan Gailey (60) of the Buffalo Bills. Perhaps we are also witnessing the last few years of Belichick roaming the sidelines.

A good debate topic in New England would be who contributed more to the Patriots' dynasty the past dozen years: Brady or Belichick? Both are Hall of Famers. But in my opinion, Brady's development and dominance at quarterback is a stronger factor in New England's success. Belichick would not have won all those games, division titles and championships in New England with shoddy quarterback play. Brady remained dominant and kept the team afloat, even when Belichick struggled coaching the defense, which is Belichick's specialty.

No. 4: The rest of the AFC East will catch up

I often call the AFC East the "Brady and Belichick division." They're the great equalizers who keep the Patriots on top.

But without Brady in a few years, and perhaps Belichick, all four teams are back to an even playing field. Who will be the top quarterback in the AFC East when Brady retires? Ryan Tannehill? Mark Sanchez? Tim Tebow? Someone else?

Maybe all four teams will have average quarterback play. That means the Patriots, New York Jets, Bills and Miami Dolphins must rely on other areas to be successful and win the division.

Can the Patriots rely on their defense to lead the way? Not right now. Not even close. New England is in no position to overcome poor quarterback play, and that probably won't change overnight.

I expect Brady to play at least two more years (2012 and 2013) at an elite level. He may opt to play beyond that. But after age 37, there's no guarantee Brady can continue to take the physical pounding and play at such a high level that we have become accustomed to. We've already seen nagging injuries bother Brady more than ever over the past couple of seasons.

Brady is a special talent the organization will probably never see again. So enjoy the success now, Patriots fans. New England will come back to earth and be an ordinary team again in 3-5 years.
ESPN.com senior writer John Clayton recently provided his list of the top-10 tight ends heading into the 2012 season. To no surprise, the New England Patriots duo of Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez both made the cut. But the rankings were interesting: Gronkowski was No. 1 and Hernandez was No. 3.

Gronkowski has catapulted to the top of the tight-end rankings after a record-setting season. I doubt many would argue that point. But is Hernandez, Gronkowski's backup, the third-best at his position?

"Hernandez isn't as physical as Gronkowski after the catch, but he's a beast to stop in routes. Hernandez takes double coverage away from Gronkowski and vice-versa, which forces opponents into more man-to-man coverages," Clayton wrote.

There are a lot of good tight ends in the NFL. But the big point is that both Gronkowski and Hernandez are unique talents who may not be together very long in New England. Both will be looking for top dollar when their contracts expire in two years. New England will struggle to pay both at the same position.

Also worth noting is Dustin Keller of the New York Jets also came in at No. 9 on Clayton's list of top tight ends.

Catching up on the AFC East

May, 21, 2012
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It was not a quiet seven days in the AFC East. Here is my take on several recent events that happened while I was away on vacation:

No. 1: Wes Welker finally signs franchise tender

Walker's take: In one of the final columns I wrote before vacation, I said Welker would be silly to fight the New England Patriots. Many have tried and failed. Welker is no exception. Welker briefly tried anyway by making a series of media appearances, including a trip to ESPN headquarters in Bristol, to win over public opinion. But none of that works with New England. The Patriots are emotionless in negotiations. Business is business. Welker did the smart thing by taking the guaranteed $9.5 million New England is offering. The Patriots may decide later to offer Welker an extension before the season starts, but only if they feel it's best for the team.

No. 2: Yeremiah Bell signs with the Jets

Walker's take: The New York Jets bolstered their safety position with the signing of Bell, who is a solid addition this late in free agency. The problem I have is Bell is similar to fellow free-agent signing LaRon Landry. Both are great tacklers, but the pair struggle in coverage. Will Landry or Bell play free safety and attempt to cover tight ends and receivers going across the middle? Neither is a good option. Eric Smith is probably a little better in coverage, but he's not a viable starter. The Jets did not improve their pass coverage this offseason, which is a major issue.

No. 3: Darrelle Revis and others talk up Tim Tebow

Walker's take: Either the Jets are naïve to this Tebow situation or they really don't care. But Revis, linebacker Bart Scott, head coach Rex Ryan and offensive coordinator Tony Sparano are among those who are really talking up Tebow this offseason. They are adding to the already immense hype, saying how great Tebow looks in practice and how his natural leadership already is showing through. I said weeks ago the Jets need to be careful about hyping the backup quarterback. It only makes it tougher on starter Mark Sanchez. The Jets obviously want and expect Sanchez to do well. But if he struggles early, this offseason Tebow talk could come back to haunt the Jets.

No. 4: Patriots meet with Dallas Clark

Walker's take: This is a classic case of Patriot bargain hunting. Does New England need another pass-catching tight end? Absolutely not. The Patriots have two of the league's best in Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez. Clark would be the third tight end, at best, if he could beat out free-agent signing Daniel Fells. But Clark, 32, is still on the market. So the Patriots are not afraid to visit and see if they can get the former Pro Bowler dirt cheap. It would be unnecessary for New England to sign Clark. But the team is trying to add as much talent as possible under the cap and figure it can sort things out later.

AFC East tight end rankings

May, 11, 2012
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Earlier this week we took a look at the best running backs in the division. On Wednesday, we will examine another position: tight ends.

Here are the top four tight ends according to the AFC East blog:

No. 1: Rob Gronkowski, New England Patriots

Skinny: Say what you want about Gronkowski's personality, but he is a beast on the field. His size, wing span and strong hands have made him an elite tight end in just two seasons. Gronkowski had an NFL record 17 touchdown receptions for a tight end in 2011 and is nearly impossible to stop in the red zone.

No. 2: Aaron Hernandez, Patriots

Skinny: Hernandez is part tight end, part wide receiver. He was probably the Patriots' best deep threat last year, although receiver Brandon Lloyd will take over the role this season. Hernandez is a top-10 tight end but a second option in New England. Hernandez probably will get a shot to be the guy somewhere else when his rookie contract expires in a couple years.

No. 3: Dustin Keller, New York Jets

Skinny: Keller set career highs with receptions (65) and yards (815) last season. He was Jets quarterback Mark Sanchez's most reliable weapon from the start of the season to the end. Keller has a lot of tools. He's able to make the catches in traffic as well as stretch the field. Keller should improve as New York's passing offense becomes more efficient.

No. 4: Anthony Fasano, Miami Dolphins

Skinny: Fasano is a solid player but not great at any particular thing. He does stretch the field better than he's given credit for. He averaged a career-high 14.1 yards per reception in 2011. I'm curious to see how well Fasano fits in Miami's new West Coast offense. Fasano also won't have the luxury of Brandon Marshall taking away coverage and double teams.
Tom Brady/Wes WelkerStephen J. Cohen/WireImagePatriots stars Tom Brady, left, and Wes Welker were all smiles at the Kentucky Derby on Saturday.
New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady spent time with teammate Wes Welker last weekend at the Kentucky Derby. Between the schmoozing and excitement of horse racing, Brady should have given his top receiver a subtle message and said, "Buddy, it's time to get back to work."

There is one thing for certain about the Patriots: You do not fight the machine.

Welker is facing an uphill battle he cannot win. Many have tried before him and failed. Welker is not the exception.

Welker has yet to sign his franchise tender and hasn't decided how long he's going to protest New England's one-year, $9.5 million offer. The potential distraction has been held to a minimum thus far, but it would only grow stronger if Welker continued to skip New England's offseason program.

The Patriots' mandatory minicamp is scheduled for June 12. The best advice is for Welker to have his mind made up by that time. Missing New England's current voluntary program is not a big thing. But if Welker also chooses to skip the Patriots' three-day veteran minicamp, that is when he's hurting the team in the eyes of the coaching staff.

At that point the gloves may come off -- and Welker doesn't want that.

New England is emotionless and shrewd in negotiations. Just ask three-time Super Bowl winner Willie McGinest, who apparently still carries some level of bitterness about how he was handled by the Patriots at the end of his career. McGinest recently got into a Twitter spat with Welker about his contract situation and delivered this stern message.

"We're all expendable at Patriot Place," McGinest tweeted to Welker.

McGinest is right. NFL players in general are expendable, but even more so in New England.

Welker needs to be more mindful of how the Patriots often treat players like replaceable and interchangeable parts. It happened to McGinest, who spent the final three years of his career with the struggling Cleveland Browns. It happened to Richard Seymour, who was great for eight seasons with the Patriots and suddenly shipped to the Oakland Raiders for a first-round draft pick. The Patriots also traded future Hall of Fame receiver Randy Moss to the Minnesota Vikings when Moss grew unhappy about his contract.

Welker should know better. No one player is above the team in New England. That is the Patriot Way.

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TBD
Thearon W. Henderson/Getty ImagesNew England signed four free-agent receivers, but can any of them match Wes Welker's production?
This is not to say Welker hasn't worked hard and doesn't have a point about long-term security. This is more about wisely navigating the cruel business side of the NFL. It's all about leverage. Welker has little. New England has plenty. Sometimes it's best to accept your fate and move forward.

Welker remains steadfast in shedding the franchise tag for a long-term contract.

"Through my body of work, through the past five years, I think what I've done I've earned a long-term deal,” Welker recently told ESPN Boston Radio. "It's what I am looking for and what I want. Hopefully that's the case and hopefully we come to something where we can make that happen."

Do not think for one second that New England is not prepared for the worst. All the Patriots have done this offseason is sign wide receivers.

New England signed receivers Brandon Lloyd, Jabar Gaffney, Anthony Gonzalez and Donte’ Stallworth in free agency. All are productive veterans who have a chance to add something to the offense. The Patriots also re-signed veteran Deion Branch, backup Matthew Slater, and drafted rookie receiver Jeremy Ebert. Chad Ochocinco and Julian Edelman also remain on the roster.

New England will have an elite passing game next season with or without Welker.

If Welker decides to stage a lengthy holdout, Lloyd and Gaffney would be the starters, while Branch, Gonzalez, Stallworth and Ochocinco compete in training camp for backup roles. New England also runs a lot of two tight-end sets with Pro Bowler Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez. This is still a very deep and talented group of targets for Brady, who also has a knack for making everyone around him a couple of notches better.

Despite 122 receptions and 1,569 yards last year, the Patriots have found a way to make Welker replaceable. But that's only if Welker chooses to be and doesn't sign his franchise tender.

The next move should be the best move by Welker. He should sign the franchise tag, take the $9.5 million and see if anything changes over the next several months at Patriot Place.

Because there's always a chance the Patriots could have a change of heart between now and August. New England has the salary-cap room to extend the 31-year-old Welker and give him the long-term security he's seeking. But it's going to be on the Patriots' terms, not Welker's.
The New England Patriots lost their leading rusher for the past two years -- BenJarvus Green-Ellis -- to the Cincinnati Bengals. Green-Ellis agreed to a three-year contract with Cincinnati on Wednesday.

But the reigning AFC champions viewed Green-Ellis as expendable. The Patriots drafted a pair of running backs in Stevan Ridley and Shane Vereen last year, and both have a lot of potential. New England also has change-of-pace tailback Danny Woodhead who can help on third down and passing situations.

The Patriots should be fine with this trio of rushers. Talent is not a concern, just inexperience. Ridley and Vereen both showed flashes, but Green-Ellis was so sure-handed that he was the tailback head coach Bill Belichick trusted most. New England used Green-Ellis and Woodhead almost exclusively in the playoffs, when the season was on the line.

New England has the option of signing an affordable free agent or adding another rookie to the pile in the draft. But it looks like Ridley, a 2011 third rounder, is the favorite to be the starter next season. Woodhead and Vereen may both play supporting roles for a team that probably will throw 60 percent of the time anyway.

Quarterback Tom Brady, receivers Wes Welker and Brandon Lloyd and tight ends Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez will be the stars of New England's offense. The young running backs just have to complement the passing game by making the most of their carries and not fumbling.
New England Patriots head coach Bill Belichick continues to love his tight ends. The reigning AFC champions are expected to sign former Denver Broncos tight end Daniel Fells, adding to an already talented position.

ESPNBoston.com's Mike Reiss reports the contract is expected to be for three years at about $2 million per season. Fells had 19 receptions for 256 yards and three touchdowns in 2011. Denver was primarily a running team with quarterback Tim Tebow, and Fells could add solid blocking.

New England didn't have any depth behind star tight ends Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez. Fells would be the No. 3 tight end, who could fill in if there is an injury. Gronkowski's ankle injury hurt the team's offense in its Super Bowl loss to the New York Giants.
Mike WallaceGeorge Gojkovich/Getty ImagesWide receiver Mike Wallace would add another dimension to New England's offense if the Patriots managed to sign him.
Here's one way the New England Patriots can get back to the Super Bowl: Sign receiver Mike Wallace, one of the best players in free agency.

The Pittsburgh Steelers' Pro Bowler is a restricted free agent who is ripe for the taking. Pittsburgh has salary-cap issues this offseason and cut many of its veteran players. The team also could not afford to put a franchise tag on Wallace.

A first-round pick and a good contract offer are the only things standing in the way of Wallace joining the reigning AFC champions. New England should be the first team in line to throw caution to the wind and pry Wallace from Pittsburgh next week when free agency begins.

Here are several reasons why this is a smart move for New England:

Reason No. 1: Patriots have plenty of draft picks, cap space

This is the perfect year for the Patriots to pounce. Unlike the Steelers, New England has plenty of cap room and more than enough draft picks to make a solid pitch for Wallace.

The cost for Wallace would be a first-round pick and a contract extension. New England has two first-rounders (No. 27 and No. 31) and two second-rounders. Losing one of those early picks would not hurt the Patriots. New England likely would not get an immediate, Pro Bowl-caliber player at the end of the first round anyway. Wallace would count as part of the Patriots' draft class. New England could add a top-10 receiver in his prime.

SportsNation

Should the Patriots go after restricted free agent WR Mike Wallace?

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Discuss (Total votes: 26,243)

New England's best chance is to offer Wallace a front-loaded contract. The key is to provide a high amount of guaranteed money and salary in the first season, which would count against this year's cap. The Patriots have that luxury over Pittsburgh and can use it to their advantage.

The Patriots entered the offseason with more cap space than any team in the AFC East. Receiver Wes Welker's franchise tag would take up some of that, but the Patriots still can offer Wallace more than Pittsburgh. New England may have to eventually work out an extension with Welker, as a result, but the Patriots are considering that option anyway.

Reason No. 2: Patriots need a deep threat

Imagine the possibilities: Tom Brady throwing to Welker and Rob Gronkowski underneath, and Wallace and Aaron Hernandez vertically. That would be a passing attack that is tough to stop.

New England's best deep threat last year was Hernandez, its backup tight end. He was the only player who could consistently get vertical and was a threat for making huge plays.

Wallace's speed would bring a unique element to New England's offense. He is arguably the best deep threat in the NFL and has 23 receptions of 40 yards or more the past three seasons. The Patriots' offense hasn't had that type of big-play capability since Randy Moss.

There are criticisms that Wallace is a "one-trick pony." That’s debatable. But getting deep is really all the Patriots would need from Wallace. New England's other receivers and tight ends will take care of the underneath routes and allow Wallace to focus on what he does best.

Reason No. 3: It hurts a big AFC rival

The Steelers are one of the most well-run and respected franchises in the NFL. The ownership, front office and coaching are all top notch.

Therefore, Pittsburgh consistently poses one of the biggest threats to New England in the AFC. The Steelers and Patriots combined for eight Super Bowl appearances the past 11 years. If Pittsburgh didn't get "Tebowed" by the Denver Broncos in January, the Patriots would've had another tough playoff matchup against Pittsburgh. The Steelers beat New England in the regular season.

Signing Wallace away from Pittsburgh would simultaneously strengthen New England and hurt the Steelers' depth at receiver. The Steelers already released team captain and all-time leading receiver Hines Ward. In terms of leadership, Ward leaves a huge void that is tough to replace. Losing Wallace, Pittsburgh's best receiver, would be another big blow.

Pittsburgh also cut starting linebacker James Farrior, starting guard Chris Kemoeatu and veteran defensive end Aaron Smith. Years of manipulating the cap is finally catching up to the Steelers, and it could cost the team Wallace if New England or another team goes after him.

Reason No. 4: No harm, no foul

Let's say the Steelers find a way to match New England's offer. That could still work in New England's favor.

The Patriots would retain their first-round pick and cap room, while forcing Pittsburgh overpay on a front-loaded contract to keep Wallace. The Steelers, as a result, would have more issues with the cap. For the Patriots, there's no harm in trying.

New England also has options. The Patriots could quickly turn its attention to veteran receiver Brandon Lloyd, who is a viable Plan B. Lloyd wants to reunite with new Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels and would be happy to join the reigning AFC champs. Instead of the home run (Wallace), New England could settle for a triple (Lloyd).

Going after Wallace in free agency is a win-win for the Patriots, regardless of the result.
The New England Patriots are in the market for a big-play wide receiver to bring the deep ball back to their offense. The reigning AFC champions have several options in free agency.

In our latest edition of "Poll Friday," we want to know which receiver the Patriots should chase in free agency to pair with Wes Welker and tight ends Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez.

SportsNation

Which receiver should the Patriots pursue in free agency?

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Should the Patriots sign Brandon Lloyd? There is certainly a connection, as Lloyd thrived in Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels' offense while together in Denver. Lloyd said he owes his career success to McDaniels and the pair could reunite in New England.

What about Pittsburgh Steelers receiver Mike Wallace? His situation is tricky as a restricted free agent. Pittsburgh is expected to place a first-round tender on Wallace. That would require the Patriots to give up one of their two first-round picks and sign Wallace to an expensive contract Pittsburgh couldn't match. Is it worth it for the 2011 Pro Bowler?

There is also the wild card of Randy Moss. He was once a great deep threat for the Patriots and wants to return to football at the age of 35. Moss' agent, Drew Rosenhaus, says there are teams interested. Should New England consider it? Finding a receiver in the draft also is an option.

Using our SportsNation poll, vote on which receiver New England should pursue in free agency. You can also share your thoughts in the comments section below.

How Finley's contract hurts Patriots

February, 23, 2012
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Jermichael Finley's recent $15 million contract with the Green Bay Packers may not seem like much on the surface. But his $7.5 million salary per season should be a cause for concern for the reigning AFC champion New England Patriots.

Hernandez
Gronkowski
Gronkowski
Finley, who caught 55 receptions for 767 yards in 2011, is setting the bar pretty high to keep quality tight ends. The Patriots have two dynamic tight ends in Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez, and both had more catches and more yards than Finely last season.

If Finley is worth $7.5 million per season, how much are New England's tight ends worth?

Is Hernandez (79 receptions, 910 yards) worth $8 million per year? Is Gronkowski (90 receptions, 1,327 yards) worth $9 or $10 million per year? There is very little chance the Patriots can pay two players that kind of money at the same position. They wouldn't have enough cap room to be strong in other areas.

The good news is New England doesn't have to worry about this problem for at least two more years. Gronkowski and Hernandez were drafted together in 2010 and have two seasons remaining on their rookie contracts.

But at some point, the Patriots have to pay up. New England will need to choose between their two great tight ends -- and both will be deserving of at least the annual salary Finley just received.

Would Patriots pursue Mike Wallace?

February, 20, 2012
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The New England Patriots are looking for a deep threat at receiver to go with receiver Wes Welker and tight ends Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez.

Could Pittsburgh Steelers’ speedster Mike Wallace be the answer?

Hypothetically, Wallace would be a tremendous addition to Tom Brady's arsenal in New England. Wallace has the ability to stretch the field and take pressure and attention away from Welker and the two tight ends underneath.

However, Wallace is in his prime and has become a franchise building block in Pittsburgh. It’s hard to see the Steelers letting the Pro Bowl receiver go this offseason. But AFC North blogger Jamison Hensley made an intriguing case by outlining Pittsburgh's issues with a tight salary cap.

Giving Wallace the money he deserves will be tough for Pittsburgh this offseason, and putting a first-round tender on Wallace might not be enough. Somebody will gladly give up a first-round pick for Wallace, especially teams later in the first round. The Steelers could also use the franchise tag for additional protection.

The Patriots have two draft picks in the first round -- No. 27 and No. 31 overall -- and tons of cap space. They can afford to give up one of their high draft picks and offer Wallace a big contract.

But for now, New England has receiver issues of its own. The Patriots have to re-sign or put the franchise tag on Welker before they can even think about Wallace. But if Pittsburgh slips up over the next few weeks and allows Wallace to become available, New England would be wise to at least check into this situation.

Walker's Fab 40: Nos. 9-12

February, 16, 2012
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The AFC East blog continues its rankings of the top 40 players in the division.

Here are Nos. 9-12:

Mankins
No. 12: Logan Mankins, G

Team: New England Patriots

Stats: 15 starts

Analysis: Mankins, a perennial Pro Bowler, is a grinder. He is relentless in the running or passing game. His style can get under some opponent's skin. Members of the New York Giants defense called Mankins and New England's offensive line "dirty" and "cheap" leading up to the Super Bowl. Mankins responded that it was a compliment. I also like Mankins' toughness and durability. He missed one game this season, when other Patriots offensive linemen were dropping left and right. Mankins has missed just seven games in his seven-year career at guard.

Dansby
No. 11: Karlos Dansby, LB

Team: Miami Dolphins

Stats: 103 tackles, 2 sacks, 1 interception

Analysis: Dansby isn't the best linebacker in the NFL, as he proclaims, but he's still very good. Dansby and fellow linebacker Kevin Burnett (No. 39) set the physical tone for the Dolphins on a weekly basis. Teams struggled to run on Miami, because the team was stout up the middle. Dansby is a sure tackler and takes on blockers well. I think he's Miami's most consistent defensive player. Dansby has recorded 100 tackles or more in three of the past four seasons.

Jackson
No. 10: Fred Jackson, RB

Team: Buffalo Bills

Stats: 934 yards, 6 touchdowns, 39 receptions

Analysis: Jackson was probably the hardest player to rank in "Walker's Fab 40." Based on the eye test and players I saw in person, Jackson was without a doubt one of the top players in the AFC East. But he also turns 31 next week and is coming off a season-ending leg injury. How well will Jackson bounce back in 2012? Will he be the same player we saw for 10 games this past season? No one has the answers yet to these questions. But Jackson's skills are plentiful. He's a powerful runner who always falls forward and has surprisingly great hands for a player his size. Jackson also was one of the best bargains in the NFL in terms of salary. The Bills plan to give him a well-deserved raise.

Hernandez
No. 9: Aaron Hernandez, TE

Team: Patriots

Stats: 79 receptions, 910 yards, 7 touchdowns

Analysis: I'm not sure many know how talented Hernandez truly is, given that he plays in Rob Gronkowski's shadow. Hernandez, who is a better pure athlete than "Gronk," might be a top-five tight end if he wasn't playing second fiddle in New England. Hernandez is versatile. He is the team's best vertical threat and could also play a little running back if needed. Hernandez is elusive and difficult to tackle. The Patriots are very fortunate to have both tight ends playing together for the next couple of years. There's a very good chance that one of them -- probably Hernandez -- bolts in free agency when the time comes; the Patriots can't pay both Pro Bowl-type money. Gronkowski is a Pro Bowl player now, and Hernandez has that potential with more opportunities.

Patriots: Five Super Bowl X factors

February, 5, 2012
Feb 5
11:30
AM ET
INDIANAPOLIS -- It's almost time for kickoff in Super Bowl XLVI. Therefore, the AFC East blog wants to leave some final thoughts on under-the-radar X factors for the New England Patriots who could make an impact in this game.

Hernandez
1. Aaron Hernandez, TE

Analysis: We're going to start with the easiest X factor. With Rob Gronkowski limited by a left ankle injury, Hernandez needs to step up his game in the event "Gronk" struggles. Hernandez is a top-10 tight end in the NFL, although many wouldn't know it because he plays second fiddle in New England. Hernandez also is nifty and has the ability to play some running back when called upon. The Giants will be watching Gronkowski. But they probably should keep their eye even more on Hernandez, who is healthy and has big-play ability.

Spikes
2. Brandon Spikes, LB

Analysis: Spikes described the past two weeks as being "caged." The high-energy linebacker is psyched to get back on the football field and play in his first Super Bowl. Spikes is New England's home-run hitter on defense. In only his second season, Spikes may not be the most consistent Patriots defender, but he makes plenty of big plays, which is needed on the big stage. Spikes led the Patriots with nine tackles and a big fourth-quarter interception in the AFC Championship Game against the Baltimore Ravens. He's a big hitter who stays around the football. Spikes will be key in stopping New York's running game, led by the dual threat of Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs.

Green-Ellis
3. BenJarvus Green-Ellis, RB

Analysis: It's no secret the Patriots will attack the Giants' secondary with the arm of future Hall of Fame quarterback Tom Brady. But there will be times in this game when the Patriots have to run the ball to keep New York's pass rush honest. Green-Ellis has been the most consistent Patriots running back this season, and particularly in the playoffs. He averaged 4.5 yards per carry in the AFC Championship Game against a tough Ravens defense. New England needs similar production from Green-Ellis in the Super Bowl. Green-Ellis won't get a ton of opportunities, but he needs to make his carries count.

Vollmer
4. Sebastian Vollmer, OT

Analysis: Vollmer hasn't played a game since Nov. 27 due to back and foot injuries. But the Super Bowl against the Giants is the perfect time for Vollmer to return. New York will bring a giant pass rush. Vollmer is listed as questionable, but he is expected to play. He will pair with rookie Nate Solder as a solid one-two punch at right tackle. Sometimes the pair could play together on the right side to provide max-protection for Brady.

Gostkowski
5. Stephen Gostkowski, K

Analysis: Remember Adam Vinatieri? Patriots fans had the utmost confidence in the playoffs when it was time for Vinatieri to make a clutch kick. The confidence was for good reason. Vinatieri was money during New England's three Super Bowl wins. But how do Patriots fans feel about Gostkowski? It's tough to say. There's no way of knowing how Gostkowski will respond until he's in these pressure situations. He's been good so far, but Gostkowski has never kicked in the Super Bowl. We saw in the conference title games how important field goal kicking is. Gostkowski needs to be ready if his number is called.

Final Word: Super Bowl XLVI

February, 4, 2012
Feb 4
2:00
PM ET
» Super Bowl XLVI Final Word: Patriots | Giants

Five nuggets of knowledge about Super Bowl XLVI:

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Bill Belichick and Tom Brady
David Butler II/US PresswireBill Belichick and Tom Brady have a chance to make history Sunday by equaling the mark for most Super Bowl wins by a coach and QB.
Legacy builders: The New England Patriots and New York Giants didn't have much interest in talking about the big picture during Super Bowl week. Anything beyond Sunday's game was too much to comprehend. But this game is important for legacies on both teams. For the Patriots, Tom Brady and Bill Belichick can tie the record for the most Super Bowl wins by a quarterback and head coach with four. (Former Steelers coach Chuck Noll won four Super Bowls; quarterbacks Joe Montana and Terry Bradshaw also have four rings.) For the Giants, a second championship would cement quarterback Eli Manning's status as an elite quarterback. New York coach Tom Coughlin also would have a stronger case for the Hall of Fame with his second ring as a head coach.

Setting the tempo: An area that hasn't been talked about much this week is New England's effective use of the no-huddle offense. The Patriots used it more and more late in the season, and it's helped set the tempo. New York likes to use plenty of substitutions, particularly on its talented and deep defensive line, to keep everyone fresh. But a no-huddle will disrupt New York's substitution packages. New England didn't use the no-huddle offense much at all in the previous loss against the Giants in Week 9. How will New York adjust to it in the Super Bowl?

Gronkowski's contribution: Patriots Pro Bowl tight end Rob Gronkowski is officially listed as questionable with an ankle injury. But he is expected to play. Gronkowski won't be 100 percent, but his presence already makes an impact in this game. New York has to account for him, and that will open things up for others, like receiver Wes Welker and tight end Aaron Hernandez. Gronkowski caught eight passes for 101 yards and a touchdown against the Giants in the regular season. Don't expect that type of production in the Super Bowl.

Don't forget the kickers: Gronkowski, Brady, Manning and New York's defensive line have dominated the discussion for two weeks, but do not forget the kicking game. This Super Bowl is expected to be close and could come down to Patriots kicker Stephen Gostkowski and Giants kicker Lawrence Tynes. Both have done a good job this season. But there is a big difference kicking in the Super Bowl. In the AFC Championship Game, Baltimore Ravens kicker Billy Cundiff couldn't handle the pressure and missed a chip shot near the end of regulation. Gostkowski and Tynes could have opportunities to be heroes or goats.

New England's track record with revenge: The Patriots have downplayed the revenge factor all week. Regardless of whether it's on their minds, they have done a great job of avenging prior postseason losses. The Patriots entered the season 0-3 in their last three playoff games. The most recent postseason loss was against the AFC East rival New York Jets. A motivated New England team convincingly swept the Jets in two regular-season games. The revenge tour continued in the AFC Championship Game against the Baltimore Ravens, who knocked New England out of the playoffs after the 2009 season. The Patriots returned the favor two weeks ago. Now, New England has a chance to avenge the Super Bowl XLII loss to the Giants. Will the Patriots complete the trifecta?
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