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Prim Siripipat goes inside the numbers for the Broncos-Patriots matchup.

Most people are picking the red-hot New York Jets (5-3) to beat the visiting New England Patriots (5-3) Sunday. The Jets are favored in this game and are 4-0 at home.

But AccuScore disagrees.

According to ESPN's 10,000 simulations, New England is a 56-percent favorite to beat the Jets on the road. The Patriots haven't lost three in a row since the 2002 season, and AccuScore doesn't see that happening this week.

Is AccuScore correct? Will the Patriots sweep the Jets this season?

AccuScore was 3-0 in the AFC East last week. That may be bad news for the New York Jets.

After 10,000 computer simulations, the Buffalo Bills came out on top 61 percent of the time against the rival Jets.

This would be a huge win for Buffalo (5-2), which is trying to maintain its lead atop the AFC East. New York (4-3) is on a two-game winning streak and is coming off its bye.

Many AFC East blog readers scoffed at AccuScore last week after predicting the New England Patriots would lose to the Pittsburgh Steelers. It turns out AccuScore was on the money.

This week, AccuScore likes the Patriots to bounce back pretty convincingly. After running 10,000 computer simulations, New England (5-2) came out on top 72 percent of the time at home against the New York Giants (5-2).

It's a big game for New England. With a New York Jets (4-3) win over the Buffalo Bills (5-2) this weekend, the Patriots would be back in first place in the AFC East.

The Miami Dolphins played one of their best games of the season in Week 8. But that wasn't enough to convince AccuScore to pick the winless Dolphins to upset the Kansas City Chiefs.

Despite coming off a short week, Kansas City (4-3) was picked to win 69 percent of the time by AccuScore. The Dolphins would fall to 0-8 and remain firmly in the Andrew Luck Sweepstakes. It also would mark Miami's 11th consecutive loss, dating to last season.

Things won't get better for the winless Miami Dolphins this week. After 10,000 simulations, AccuScore gives the New York Giants (4-2) an 82 percent chance at home Sunday to beat Miami (0-6).

New York has been upset at home before. In Week 5 the Giants suffered an unexpected loss to the Seattle Seahawks at MetLife Stadium. But Miami hasn't shown any reason to have confidence in this team doing the same. The Dolphins have lost nine straight games dating to last season.

It's also interesting to point out Accurscore gives Miami a three-percent chance to go 0-16. Although I think the Dolphins will catch a team or two by surprise this season, three percent seems a bit low.

Who says the New England Patriots (5-1) are clear favorites over the Pittsburgh Steelers (5-2)?

Despite many trends to the contrary -- including Patriots quarterback Tom Brady's mastery of Pittsburgh -- AccuScore picks the Steelers to upset New England Sunday at Heinz Field.

ESPN's computer-generated system ran 10,000 simulations. The Steelers came out on top 53 percent of the time. Pittsburgh hasn't beaten New England with Brady under center in seven years. But AccuScore predicts that streak is coming to an end on Sunday.

Agree or disagree?

Some accuse ESPN of not playing with a full deck at times, but here's a pack of 52 Super Bowl predictions from our crew for you to shuffle through.

Thirty-nine of our analysts, reporters, bloggers, editors or on-air personalities have forecasted a Green Bay Packers victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers.

That group includes my prediction, which is tied to the nine games the Packers and Steelers played versus the AFC East this season.

AccuScore forecasts a tight matchup. The Packers won 50.5 percent of the 10,000 simulations by an average of 0.6 points.

We've also posted a list of celebrity predictions (thanks to the Scripps Howard News Service) because we knew you wouldn't be able to focus on the big game without knowing Cloris Leachman's thoughts.

You can voice your preference for the game, the quarterbacks and the coaches on the SportsNation poll page.

For the past 20 Thursdays, I have posted AccuScore reports on games involving AFC East clubs.

The videos generate interesting responses. Some critics condemn AccuScore for getting a prediction wrong, but forecasting the winner and loser aren't what make AccuScore a worthwhile tool in previewing a game.

Many readers focus too much on the predicted result and not the calculations that foretell how an underdog can win.

Did AccuScore predict the New York Jets would beat the Indianapolis Colts or New England Patriots? No, but they were absolutely correct in breaking down winning formulas for exploiting or shutting down each opponent.

So if you're the kind of Jets fan who's prone to getting offended, don't get too upset with the surface statement from AccuScore's 10,000 simulations of Sunday's game against the Pittsburgh Steelers for the AFC Championship.

The Steelers won 63 percent by an average of 4.4 points.

OK, deep breath.

Now consider some additional information from AccuScore.

The basis for Pittsburgh winning 63 percent is its run defense, which held LaDainian Tomlinson and Shonn Greene to 3 yards a carry in the simulations. When the Jets' backfield tandem combined for 100 yards, they won a whopping 74 percent of the time. They broke triple digits only 15 percent of the time in the sims, though.

In games when the Jets limited Ben Roethlisberger to no more than one touchdown and sacked him four times, they won 52 percent of the time.

Mark Sanchez completed 54 percent of his passes for 200 yards and a touchdown in AccuScore's sims, but when he completed at least 60 percent with a touchdown and no more than one interception, the game turned into a pick 'em proposition.

AccuScore is flinging around all sorts of numbers to forecast Sunday's playoff game between the New York Jets and New England Patriots in Gillette Stadium.

The Patriots won 78 percent of AccuScore's simulations by an average of nine points.

But -- and there always are several buts when it comes to AccuScore -- there are ways the Jets can tilt the game in their favor.

The Jets must dominate on the ground because Mark Sanchez was shaky in AccuScore's 10,000 simulations. Sanchez completed 56 percent of his passes, averaged 1.1 touchdowns and 1.2 interceptions per sim and had a 72 passer rating.

The Patriots held Jets running backs LaDainian Tomlinson and Shonn Greene to less than 4 yards a carry and 95 yards combined.

But when Tomlinson and Green raised their average to 5 yards a carry and combine for more than 100 yards, the Jets won 50 percent of the time.

In 16 percent of the sims, Sanchez had zero interceptions and Tom Brady threw one -- what?!?! The Jets won 50 percent of those games, too.

When the Jets committed zero turnovers and Sanchez completed 60 percent of his passes, the Jets became 57 percent favorites.

But Brady also threw two touchdowns and no interceptions in 30 percent of the simulations. The Patriots won 90 percent of them.

What are the odds the New York Jets can knock off the Indianapolis Colts, then the New England Patriots, then the last remaining AFC survivor (Pittsburgh Steelers, Baltimore Ravens or Kansas City Chiefs) all on the road and then win the Super Bowl?

How about 3 percent?

Those are the chances AccuScore gives the Jets of running the postseason table and hoisting the Lombardi Trophy, as Jets head coach Rex Ryan predicted on the side of ESPN's training camp tour bus.

Only the Chiefs (1.1 percent) and Seattle Seahawks (0.2 percent) generated smaller odds than the Jets in AccuScore's computations.

AccuScore's percentage for the Jets, based on 10,000 simulations of the tournament bracket, matched the opening line in Las Vegas. Without the juice, the Jets have a 3 percent chance in the legal sportsbooks of winning the title.

The New England Patriots dominated AccuScore's simulations, winning the Super Bowl 35.4 percent of the time.

That was more than twice as appealing as the next team, the Pittsburgh Steelers, at 13.2 percent.

Las Vegas calculated the chances at 31.7 percent of paying off a Patriots betting slip.

The New York Jets have little to play for. While they could improve their tournament seeding from sixth to fifth if multiple Week 17 games work out a certain way, head coach Rex Ryan has suggested they'll rest their players Sunday.

That means an easier game for the Buffalo Bills at the Meadowlands.

AccuScore's simulations indicate the Jets would be 67 percent favorites and win by an average of six points if they play their starters.

When quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick threw for at least 200 yards with no interceptions and Fred Jackson averaged 4.5 yards a carry, the Bills won 52 percent of the sims.

But when the Jets came up with at least one interception and limited Jackson to 75 yards rushing, they won 82 percent of the time.

AccuScore's microchips are going to have extra trouble in Week 17.

They can compute an NFL matchup a bajillion statistical ways to Sunday, but can they factor indifference?

AccuScore certainly will try and assume the New England Patriots will rest key starters in Sunday's game against the Miami Dolphins in Gillette Stadium. Even so, the Patriots won 70 percent of simulations by an average of 7.5 points.

The Patriots already have the AFC's top seed and home-field advantage locked up. But will Patriots coach Bill Belichick rest them for the whole game, half the game, a quarter, at all?

As ESPN analyst and former Patriots linebacker Tedy Bruschi noted, resting players too much the week before a bye could be a problem.

So the game could be more lopsided than AccuScore projects if the Patriots don't pull any punches.

For the record, Chad Henne averaged a 69 passer rating in AccuScore's 10,000 simulations. He threw at least two interceptions 38 percent of the time. In those games, the Dolphins won just 13 percent.

AccuScore's most promising formula for the Dolphins is a balanced game, with Henne throwing at least two touchdown passes and Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown averaging at least 4 yards per carry. When that happened in the sims, Miami won 52 percent of the time.

Dolfans have one more chance to witness a rarity.

The Miami Dolphins will play their home finale against the Detroit Lions, and AccuScore is predicting a comfortable victory. The Dolphins have won in Sun Life Stadium just once this season and are another defeat away from matching the worst franchise home record.

The Dolphins beat the Lions in 70 percent of AccuScore's simulations by an average of seven points.

When running backs Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown averaged 4.5 yards a carry in AccuScore's simulations, the Dolphins won 81 percent of the time. When the Lions held them to 3 yards a carry, the Dolphins slid to 48 percent favorites.

AccuScore has determined the New England Patriots are whopping 83 percent road favorites to beat the Buffalo Bills on Sunday by an average of 11.5 points.

Only two teams on the Week 16 schedule are bigger favorites than the Patriots -- the Pittsburgh Steelers over the Carolina Panthers and the Philadelphia Eagles over the Minnesota Vikings -- but just barely. The Steelers and Eagles will play at home.

In AccuScore's 10,000 simulations, Patriots quarterback Tom Brady averaged 240 yards against the Bills, but he also averaged an interception 50 percent of the time. If he throws one, his record-threatening streak of consecutive passes without an interception would come to an end in Ralph Wilson Stadium. He's at 292 and counting.

AccuScore's best formula for the Bills to become a favorite?

Intercept Brady (no problem!), hold Patriots running backs BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Danny Woodhead to under 3.5 yards a carry (no problem!) and get at least two touchdown passes and no interceptions from Ryan Fitzpatrick (no problem!) and the Bills have a 53 percent chance.