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The New England Patriots are favored to win their first Super Bowl since the end of the 2004 season. That capped a run of three championships in four years, which happened to be the most recent NFL dynasty.

But are the Patriots quietly building another dynasty? New England is the only team to win back-to-back Super Bowls in the past dozen years. If any organization is consistent enough to pull it off, it's New England.

Here are five reasons the Patriots have a chance to once again reach dynasty status:

Reason No. 1: Patriots will beat the Giants

Whoops! Did I reveal my prediction too soon? Oh well. There was no point in waiting. The Patriots will beat the Giants on Feb. 5 to win the fourth Super Bowl of the Bill Belichick era.

This is not only revenge for the Patriots, this is double revenge. New England lost to New York during the 2011 regular season and in Super Bowl XLII. Teams simply don't beat New England three times in a row. Belichick and Tom Brady are too good and too locked in to allow it. New England's defense is also playing much better in the postseason.

New York has looked impressive in wins over the Atlanta Falcons, Green Bay Packers and San Francisco 49ers. But New England will present some unique matchup problems and will attack New York's 29th-ranked pass defense. The Patriots also have allowed just one sack in two playoff games. If the Patriots' pass protection is successful, the Giants are toast.

A lot of people, particularly in the AFC East blog, have criticized my Patriots predictions all season. But I have been right about them every single time. New England was my Super Bowl pick in August, and I've never wavered.

The Patriots will win Super Bowl XLVI over the Giants, which will give them a chance to repeat and begin to chase dynasty status next season.

Reason No. 2: Brady shows no signs of slowing down

Last week we did a story on how much longer Brady can play at a high level. Everyone we spoke to says he still has several great years left in his Hall of Fame career.

Brady, 34, had one of his best seasons in 2011. He threw for the second-most yards (5,235) in NFL history and finished with a passer rating of 105.6. He almost single-handedly carried the Patriots to an AFC East title and a No. 1 seed.

Brady says he wants to play until he’s 40. That will be difficult. But after another great year, it’s hard to doubt him.

It's safe to say Brady will be an elite quarterback for at least the next two or three seasons. Three years is just enough time for New England to make a run at multiple Super Bowls. The Patriots will be a strong contender as long as Brady is healthy. He’s had only one major injury his entire career.

Reason No. 3: Patriots have draft capital and cap room

Guess which AFC East team has the most salary-cap room and first- and second-round picks this offseason? It’s the Patriots.

Belichick has done a masterful job of fielding a championship-caliber team while simultaneously positioning New England well for the future. The Patriots have two first-round picks and two second-round picks thanks to previous trades. The Patriots also have approximately $20 million in cap room to spend in free agency.

Expect most of those resources to go to New England's 31st-ranked defense. Belichick is a defensive-minded coach and I wouldn't be surprised if he spends at least three of those first four picks on that side of the football. That is where the Patriots need depth and impact players.

Leading receiver and pending free agent Wes Welker will take up a chunk of New England's cap space, assuming he re-signs. But the Patriots can still add two or three difference-makers in free agency.

A cover corner? A hard-hitting safety? A deep threat at receiver? The Patriots have the ability to plug all these holes next season.

If this year's Patriots are good enough to win a championship despite their flaws, why can't next year's team? New England should be even better next season.

Reason No. 4: AFC quarterbacks are average

Name the elite quarterbacks in the NFL: Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees and you might be able to throw Eli Manning's name in the mix now. Most of the elite quarterbacks play in the NFC.

This year's AFC playoff field included quarterbacks Tim Tebow, T.J. Yates, Andy Dalton and Joe Flacco. The overall quarterbacking in the AFC is average and lopsided compared to the NFC. That is a huge advantage for the Patriots.

New England has arguably the only elite quarterback in the AFC. (We are taking the injured Peyton Manning out of the equation for now.) Brady's closest competition is Ben Roethlisberger of the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Like Brady, Roethlisberger has won multiple Super Bowls. But years and injuries are piling up for Roethlisberger and the Steelers; they didn’t win a playoff game this season. The core in Pittsburgh is past its prime.

Brady and the Patriots are fortunate they don't have to contend with quarterbacks like Rodgers and Brees, unless they reach the Super Bowl. In the AFC, they can continue to beat the Tebows and Flaccos of the world for the next few seasons.

Reason No. 5: Young tight ends

Contractually, Patriots stud tight ends Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez will be together for at least two more seasons. Both signed four-year contracts after being drafted together in 2010.

Gronkowski and Hernandez are both 22 and already in the top 10 at their position. A case can be made that "Gronk" is the best at his position, although it’s safer to place him in the top three.

As long as Gronkowski and Hernandez are together, New England’s offense will be hard to stop. Opponents have yet to figure out how to slow them down. Their development also made it easier for Brady to make quick reads and throws over the middle. That keeps the pass rush off Brady.

There is no doubt that Gronkowski will be a Patriot for a very long time. He’s the better all-around tight end, and New England will offer Gronkowski a big contract extension in the next year or two.

Hernandez’s case is a little more unpredictable. He’s clearly a No. 1 tight end, but how long will he be willing to play second fiddle? That’s clearly not an issue now. Both players are having fun learning and growing together. But two years from now, when Hernandez is in his prime and becomes a free agent, would he be willing to rejoin the Patriots as a No. 2 tight end? Also, can New England pay top-10 money to two players at the same position?

But those questions are down the road. Right now, New England is four quarters from securing another Super Bowl win.

Will a Super Bowl victory jump-start another Patriots dynasty?

The New England Patriots finished the regular season 13-3 and earned home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. Now, they can sit back and watch teams battle it out in the first round of the playoffs.

But which team would Patriots fans rather see at Gillette Stadium in two weeks? There are three possibilities.

Would New England be better off facing the young Cincinnati Bengals (9-7)? Rookie quarterback Andy Dalton has never played in the postseason. Chances of Dalton outplaying Brady in New England would be slim.

What about Tim Tebow and the Denver Broncos (8-8)? The Patriots beat Denver earlier in the regular season and would face a familiar opponent.

Finally, would New England be better off with a rematch against the Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4)? Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger is limited with an ankle injury and just lost starting tailback Rashard Mendenhall. Is this a good time for the Patriots to get revenge against the Steelers, who beat New England in the regular season?

Using our SportsNation poll, vote on which team provides the easiest matchup for New England in the divisional round. You can also share your thoughts in the comments section below.

ORCHARD PARK, N.Y. -- The first-place Buffalo Bills (3-0) began preparation for Sunday's road game against the Cincinnati Bengals (1-2).

Here are some notes Wednesday from the Bills' locker room:

• [+] Enlarge
  Rick Stewart/Getty ImagesBuffalo's offensive has given Ryan Fitzpatrick plenty of time in the pocket.
  Buffalo starting quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick knows how maligned his offense line was during the preseason. It was expected to be one of the weakest areas of the team. But the group has played well through three games. Buffalo's offensive line has only allowed just one sack and is opening a lot of holes for running back Fred Jackson. Fitzpatrick said it's time to give his linemen some credit. "These guys are playing really well up front," Fitzpatrick said. "It's not like I'm taking one step and throwing the ball. I've been able to sit back there, throw the ball and not take a lot of hits. ... They do deserve more credit than they're getting."
• Bills head coach Chan Gailey said he isn't surprised Bengals rookie quarterback Andy Dalton has taken over as a first-year starter. Buffalo and Cincinnati were the two coaching staffs in this year's Senior Bowl, and Dalton impressed both staffs. The Bengals later took Dalton in the second round this past April. Dalton has thrown for 570 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions. It also looks like Dalton will have some help. Embattled running back Cedric Benson will play Sunday, according to Bengals coach Marvin Lewis.
• The Bills also said they have a lot of respect for the Bengals' defense. "They're not third in the league for nothing," Gailey said. "They're good." Bengals defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer has his group playing well. It will be a matchup of strengths. Buffalo is leading the league in scoring with 113 points.
• Buffalo kicker Rian Lindell was awarded the AFC Special Teams Player of the Week for his game-winning kick against the New England Patriots. Lindell was 2-for-2 on field goals and made all four extra points. The Bills also promoted cornerback Terrence Wheatley to the 53-man roster and released backup tight end David Martin.
• Bills veteran linebacker Shawne Merriman is impressed with how this young Buffalo team is handling success. Merriman has been on four playoff teams as a member of the San Diego Chargers. "I've been in a situation like that for a long time, and like I've said, these guys in this locker room handle it as well as anybody I've ever been around," Merriman said. "They're very mature and we got a bunch of guys who's focused right now."

Thoughts from the Jets 27-7 preseason win over the Cincinnati Bengals.

WHAT IT MEANS: Rebounding from a so-so performance last week, the New York Jets improved in all phases and defeated the helpless Cincinnati Bengals on a rainy Sunday night at New Meadowlands Stadium. Plaxico Burress was the star, but this was more than a one-man show. Midway through the preseason, the Jets (1-1) have to feel good about themselves. And there appeared to be no major injuries.

LIKE OLD TIMES: Burress made his Jets debut and gave the rain-soaked fans what they wanted -- a moment to talk about. The moment came with 51 seconds left in the second quarter, when he made an over-the-shoulder, 26-yard touchdown catch. With his back to Mark Sanchez, Burress threw his 6-foot-5 body into a dive, securing the high, arching pass as he skidded across the wet turf.

With that one play, Burress announced his return to football. After nearly two years in prison, he was back, demonstrating the kind of athleticism you wouldn’t expect from a 34-year-old receiver that spent that much time in the big house. It came against a backup cornerback named Fred Bennett, but that didn’t matter. It was all about body control, hand-eye coordination and sticky hands.

Burress played 30 of 32 plays in the first half, finishing with three catches for 66 yards. Translation: A smashing debut.

SANCHEZ ROCKS: After an efficient but largely non-descript performance last week, Sanchez (12-for-20, 173 yards, two TDs) delivered some big plays in the passing game. The protection was better this week, thanks to the return of All-Pro center Nick Mangold. He led the offense to two touchdowns (drives of 16 and 99 yards) and a field goal in seven possessions, wrapping up the night with a 10-play, 99-yard touchdown drive.

Until then, the Sanchez-led offense was like the weather -- blah. In fact, the Jets started 0-for-6 on third down. The turning point was a 43-yard pass to a wide-open Dustin Keller, providing good field position after being backed up at their 1. From there, Sanchez hit Keller on a third-down catch, setting up the Burress highlight-film catch.

WIDE-OPEN OFFENSE: For the second straight week, the Jets relied heavily on a three-receiver attack. In fact, they used their “11” personnel package (3 WRs, 1 TE, 1RB) on 19 of 32 plays in the first half. With Derrick Mason (knee) sitting out, they used Burress, Santonio Holmes (16-yard TD) and rookie Jeremy Kerley in three-wide packages.

NO GROUND AND POUND: By placing an emphasis on the passing attack -- a necessity, given the new parts -- the running game was out of sync. LaDainian Tomlinson got the start with Shonn Greene (foot) out of the lineup, and the 32-year-old looked a bit sluggish. He rushed for 16 yards on nine carries. Tomlinson got a lot of work, appearing in 31 of 32 plays in the first half. Joe McKnight and Bilal Powell didn’t see significant time until the second half.

OPPORTUNISTIC D: The Jets roughed up the offensively challenged Bengals, intercepting three passes -- Eric Smith, Jim Leonhard and Brashton Satele. The three turnovers set up 17 points for the Jets, and that was pretty much the story of the game. Keep in mind, the Bengals no longer have Carson (I Wanna Retire) Palmer at quarterback. They started rookie Andy Dalton and replaced him with journeyman Bruce Gradkowski.

WELCOME MAYBIN: Bills castoff Aaron Maybin, the 11th overall pick in the 2009 draft, made his presence felt in his Jets debut. After only three days of practice with the team, Maybin recorded a strip sack on Bengals third-string QB Jordan Palmer. Hey, that might have been enough to grab a spot on the 53-man roster.

A couple days ago, we took a gander at whether an AFC East club would be interested in grabbing besieged Ohio State quarterback Terrelle Pryor in the supplemental draft.

Chances would be slim anybody would want him at quarterback.

But ESPN analyst Todd McShay offered another perspective: What about as a wide receiver?

McShay isn't convinced Pryor could develop NFL-level passing accuracy or interpretive skills despite tremendous speed and elusiveness. We saw how far that combination took Pat White.

But Pryor is 6-foot-6 and 233 pounds and is athletic enough to become a decent target.

McShay wrote for ESPN Insider:

Because of his size, I still think Pryor is a better prospect at wide receiver than quarterback at this point, and he would have been the No. 8 quarterback on my board -- behind Blaine Gabbert, Cam Newton, Jake Locker, Andy Dalton, Christian Ponder, Ryan Mallett and Colin Kaepernick -- had he chosen to enter the 2011 draft.

Pryor carried a third-round grade following last season (and remains in that area now) based mostly on his potential to move to receiver if he does not make significant progress as a quarterback early in his NFL career, and the odds are stacked heavily against him doing so.

As a couple readers mentioned, maybe Pryor could evolve into the type of player Brad Smith was for the New York Jets, a versatile player who can take snaps out of a pistol formation, return kicks or line up at receiver.

We'll find out what Ryan Mallett is all about.

No setting would have provided a truer test than New England, where the coach runs a tight operation and the quarterback provides the perfect template for a youngster to follow.

Team after team saw Mallett's name on the draft board and ignored it. Seventy-three picks were made, including four by the New England Patriots, before they finally added the quarterback many analysts called the most NFL-ready quarterback in this year's class.

"When I got that call," Mallett said, "it was a great feeling just to know that somebody wanted me."

Mallett's humiliation couldn't have cut as deeply as what Tom Brady felt 11 years ago, when the future Hall of Famer squirmed through five-plus rounds of rejection.

Memories of that day recently made Brady cry. The anger and bitterness and appreciation for his parents' support bubbled over during an interview for "The Brady 6," an ESPN documentary about the quarterbacks taken before him.

Perhaps "The Mallett 6" already is playing on a loop inside the rookie's head.

If not, you can imagine Brady whispering constant reminders in Mallett's ear about being driven to prove all the doubters wrong and to show the world he's better than Cam Newton and Jake Locker and Blaine Gabbert and Christian Ponder and Andy Dalton and Colin Kaepernick.

Mallett can do that in New England.

If he wants it badly enough.

"It's an opportunity for me to learn from him and further my knowledge under that coaching staff," Mallett said of Brady late Friday night. "It was something I'm really excited about when I got the call. I can't wait to get started."

When the Patriots make a selection such as this one, it's perceived as brilliant. Bill Belichick earned that presumption with three Super Bowl rings and a steady stream of AFC East championships.

Had the Oakland Raiders, Cincinnati Bengals or San Francisco 49ers drafted Mallett, we would be ridiculing them right now.

Mallett, in the eyes of most, would be dooooooomed to failure.

After all, Mallett clearly was more toxic than asbestos and ready to contaminate all he came into contact with. The passing skills he demonstrated in Arkansas' pro-style offense were undeniable. And although his mobility resembles that of a drowsy turtle, the damning issues were away from the field. Vague drug accusations hovered, and while still not detailed in public, teams apparently were convinced he wasn't worth the risk.

"Obviously, we're comfortable with him," Belichick said. "We took him."

Now AFC East opponents dread the prospect of Mallett emerging as a well-tutored prodigy with a cannon arm and a Dante Scarnecchia-coached offensive line to keep harassing defenders away.

But Mallett's real advantage in this scenario is Brady.

Mallett won't need to play right away -- not this year or next and probably not the year after that. He can learn from one of the supreme overachievers of NFL history.

That's the type of competitor Mallett will be exposed to in Foxborough. Every day, he'll get to observe, extract, probe and scrutinize the actions of a genuine winner.

"He's definitely a football guy," Belichick said of Mallett. "He is a great kid to talk to. He's very into football. You can't wear him out. If you want to talk about it, he'll be there. However many hours it is, he's ready to go watch the next film. He'll talk about a new technique or a route or a read, whatever.

"His father is a football coach. He's grown up in a football family, which I can definitely relate to that. Either you get sick of it or you marry into it and love it. It's one of the two. I think he's very much of a football person.

"He's a kid that's eager to learn and has a great thirst for knowledge for his position, which there's a lot going on there. He'll certainly get an opportunity to receive a lot of knowledge at that position around here."

On the surface, the payoff for New England seems minimal. Brady should have five more good years in him. He will turn 34 in September but is at the top of his game. He's the reigning MVP and a unanimous All-Pro selection, guiding the Patriots to a 14-2 record last season and posting phenomenal efficiency numbers.

Brady is signed through 2014. Mallett might flame out before then, but even if he doesn't, he could become a free agent before Brady is ready to yield the job.

What then?

If the Patriots' highly favorable atmospheric conditions allow Mallett to grow into a young star, the Patriots will have the ability to convert him into more future assets -- a groom-and-trade exercise similar to what they pulled off with Matt Cassel.

In the meantime, Mallett would provide backup services. Brady has gotten banged up over the past few years. An insurance policy is wise.

There's always a chance disaster will strike. Another season-ending injury could befall Brady. In between serenity and panic, a broken bone could sideline Brady for a couple of games.

Then Mallett would get his chance to show everybody what he's all about.

He might very well fall flat on his facemask. But it's much easier to picture him pulling it off in a Patriots jersey, isn't it?

ORCHARD PARK, N.Y. -- As expected, a famous quarterback was the first pick in Thursday night's NFL draft.

Then things got a little strange. Another quarterback didn't go off the board until No. 8, and it wasn't the prospect anybody expected. Then -- boom, boom -- two more went.

Four quarterbacks were off the board inside the first dozen picks, a third of the selections. Quarterbacks were a hot commodity.

Yet the two AFC East clubs that went into the draft with quarterback curiosity steered clear of the frenzy. The Buffalo Bills certainly did so by choice, the Miami Dolphins perhaps by circumstance.

Either way, they made safer plays.

Will they regret their decisions?

The NFL is driven by quarterbacks. Neither club has one. Neither club drafted a prospect Friday night.

The Bills had their chance to add any quarterback other than Auburn star Cam Newton with the third pick. The Bills could've snapped up Missouri's Blaine Gabbert, but took Alabama defensive lineman Marcell Dareus instead.

"I don't think there's any such thing as a safe pick," Bills general manager Buddy Nix said. "But I think [Dareus] is about as close as it gets."

Buffalo made the decision, knowing it still had the option of drafting a quarterback with the 34th selection Friday, but then the draft broke in such a way that made that scenario seem less likely -- for a bit.

Three more quarterbacks were gone in a hurry.

As expected, Gabbert was off the board, although he surprisingly slid to the Jacksonville Jaguars at No. 10. The Tennessee Titans plucked Washington quarterback Jake Locker with the eighth pick, and the Minnesota Vikings took Florida State quarterback Christian Ponder 12th.

When the Dolphins were on the clock with the 15th pick, the value of quarterbacks had skyrocketed. Yet despite their uneasiness in Chad Henne and minus a second-round draft choice, the Dolphins avoided any temptation of reaching.

Arkansas lightning rod Ryan Mallett was available. So was Texas Christian quarterback Andy Dalton.

Like the Bills, the Dolphins played it safe and addressed a need in the trenches. They filled a need on their interior offensive line with Florida center Mike Pouncey.

Henne certainly appreciated that selection. Not only did his protection get that much better, but he also avoided competing with a high draft choice in training camp.

Even so, the Dolphins might have the chance to add a veteran soon enough. The NFL can't delay free-agent signings or trades forever. Those kinds of transactions could be permissible as soon as this weekend, allowing the Dolphins to pursue Carson Palmer or Kyle Orton or Kevin Kolb or Vince Young or whomever.

Buffalo still has options if it wants a quarterback Friday.

Four quarterbacks inside the first 12 picks indicated a couple more might come off the board before the first round concluded, but none did.

Mallett and Dalton still are around. Buffalo could have a decision to make on at least one of them Friday.

Nix didn't sound like he was going to be in that hunt. Nix declared he could "get another starter" with the No. 34 pick. Ryan Fitzpatrick still would project as the leading man over any quarterback left.

So all the AFC East quarterback situations look the same now as they did 24 hours ago because the Bills and Dolphins played the percentages. Other teams gambled a bit and snagged quarterbacks they hope will lead them into the future.

Let the speculation begin.

It is possible to be safe and sorry.

U.S. Department of Labor analysts have confirmed Mel Kiper is the second-busiest man in the country this week and would have been first had the president not felt compelled to hold a weird news conference Wednesday.

Even with Kiper's heavy workload -- imagine how much care must go into crafting his final notes and hair the night before the draft -- he took the time to share his thoughts on our AFC East reader mock draft.

We verified our first round Wednesday with a long-form certification process: a six-week, pick-a-day reader vote.

Kiper's intrepid editor, Chris Sprow, caught up with him to go over the AFC East reader mock draft.

Here are Kiper's thoughts:

• It's hard to argue with any of the top three picks here. If the trade domino doesn't fall, no reason this couldn't happen.
• I'm going to stick with A.J. Green to the Bengals. Blaine Gabbert makes some sense, but if they still believe there's hope they can somehow hold onto Carson Palmer, they don't make that pick. But this could be one they are still undecided on, which is a theme this year.
• If Green isn't there for Cleveland, I don't expect them to pass on Julio Jones, which means I don't think he's still there at No. 10 for the Redskins.
• I like the pick of tackle Anthony Castonzo to Detroit because my gut says they know protecting Matthew Stafford is priority No. 1. I just think they might still see Tyron Smith there.
• Texans defensive coordinator Wade Phillips will love Robert Quinn if he's around with the 11th pick. If Quinn is not, Aldon Smith could go that high. His tape is phenomenal in spots.
• J.J. Watt and Cameron Jordan are perhaps the most interchangeable picks, so these picks don't seem off at all for the Patriots and Chargers. Could play out that way.
• I'm not as high on Derek Sherrod as some, but would love to be proven wrong. I just think he's there past Philly at No. 23. Slight reach for me.
• Danny Watkins is a definite possibility at No. 28, but I think New England can go in so many different directions because of how many picks they have.
• No Jake Locker? No Andy Dalton? I wouldn't count on it.

The last point lends itself to the nature of our project. We began six weeks ago, and quarterback buzz always ramps up as we draw closer to the draft.

Mock drafts also can't accurately factor trade scenarios, and those kinds of draft-day maneuvers will dictate where quarterbacks are drafted after Cam Newton and Gabbert.

It was nice of Kiper and Sprow to share some bonus analysis for us. Much thanks.

It won't be long until we find out how well we did.

ESPN draft expert Mel Kiper predicts four quarterbacks will be selected Thursday in the first round, including Missouri's Blaine Gabbert possibly to the Buffalo Bills with the third overall pick.

In addition to Heisman Trophy winner Cam Newton early, Kiper considers Washington's Jake Locker, Texas Christian's Andy Dalton and Florida State's Christian Ponder legitimate first-round possibilities. Kiper says Ponder talk is "hot" at the moment and weighs in with his thoughts on Arkansas lighting rod Ryan Mallett.

» NFC Draft Watch: East | West | North | South » AFC: East | West | North | South

Each Thursday leading up to the NFL draft (April 28-30), the ESPN.com NFL blog network will take a division-by-division look at key aspects of the draft. Today's topic: dream scenario/Plan B.

Buffalo Bills

Dream scenario: The Bills went 4-12 last year and haven't made the playoffs in 11 years. They're entering their second season under general manager Buddy Nix and head coach Chan Gailey. They're still laying an organizational foundation. As such, there are holes all over the place. So many, in fact, the Bills can go almost any direction and not make a misguided pick. Their dream player would be Auburn quarterback Cam Newton, but his availability at No. 3 isn't within their control. I believe if Newton is there, the Bills will pounce.

Plan B: If Newton's gone, then Missouri quarterback Blaine Gabbert almost certainly will be on the board for them. At least two of the top three defensive players -- Alabama defensive tackle Marcell Dareus, Texas A&M outside linebacker Von Miller and Louisiana State cornerback Patrick Peterson -- would be there, too.

Miami Dolphins

Dream scenario: The Dolphins' dream scenario would be to get a draft-day phone call from another team desperate to move into the middle of the first round. The Dolphins own the 15th pick, and none of their most pressing needs matches up favorably with that spot. The top two -- maybe three -- quarterbacks will be gone. The Dolphins also need interior line and backfield help, but No. 15 seems too early for those top prospects: Florida center Mike Pouncey and Alabama running back Mark Ingram. But the Dolphins cannot afford to pass on a player they really like and hope he falls to them in the second round because they don't have a second-rounder. They traded it to the Denver Broncos in the Brandon Marshall deal. So the Dolphins would love to trade back in the order a little, snag Pouncey or Ingram or a quarterback such as Ryan Mallett, Christian Ponder, Andy Dalton or Jake Locker and collect another draft choice in the process.

Plan B: If they can't trade back, then they'll be stuck with reaching a little for a player they identify as the best fit for their team.

New England Patriots

Dream scenario: The Patriots hold three of the top 32 picks and two selections in each of the first three rounds. They'll gladly listen to every trade offer and definitely will field some calls. Bill Belichick's dream scenario is to have maximized value when they've made their final selection. If that means collecting more picks and still landing players they like, then so be it. If that means moving up in the order for a specific player and not having to give up much to do so, then so be it. If that means standing pat and making the best pick off their in-house draft board, then so be it.

Plan B: The Patriots have so many picks that they have more than a Plan B. However the draft shakes out, they'll have a Plan Z, Article XXXIV, Section 16, Subsection vii -- and an appendix with 23 more sets of instructions. No other front office enters the draft process with such flexibility.

New York Jets

Dream scenario: The Jets don't seem to be worried much about a dream scenario. Head coach Rex Ryan has laughed and shrugged when discussing the No. 30 slot. They don't have much control over who will be available. Their trade options are severely limited. The Jets don't have a second-round pick to dangle because they lost it in the trade for cornerback Antonio Cromartie. The NFL lockout allows clubs to trade draft choices only, preventing the Jets from packaging players like they did to move up and draft quarterback Mark Sanchez fifth overall in 2009. The Jets probably will be forced to await their turn and hope another team wants to jump in at the end of the first round. Maybe then they can turn their 30th pick into multiple picks.

Plan B: If no one wants their 30th pick, then they'll check out players such as Baylor nose tackle Phil Taylor or UCLA safety Rahim Moore.

In honor ESPN draft analyst Todd McShay releasing an updated mock draft Wednesday, why not take a look at a bunch of them?

This roundup also includes the latest first-round forecast from ESPN expert Mel Kiper , the National Football Post's Wes Bunting, NFL Network analyst Charles Davis, Sports Illustrated senior writer Peter King, Nolan Nawrocki of Pro Football Weekly, CBSSports.com analysts Rob Rang and Chad Reuter and Buffalo News reporter Allen Wilson.

No. 3 Buffalo Bills

• Kiper's pick: Von Miller, Texas A&M outside linebacker
• McShay's pick: Blaine Gabbert, Missouri quarterback
• Bunting's pick: Blaine Gabbert, Missouri quarterback
• Davis' pick: Von Miller, Texas A&M outside linebacker
• King's pick: Von Miller, Texas A&M outside linebacker
• Nawrocki's pick: Cam Newton, Auburn quarterback
• Rang's pick: Von Miller, Texas A&M outside linebacker
• Reuter's pick: Blaine Gabbert, Missouri quarterback
• Wilson's pick: Von Miller, Texas A&M outside linebacker

No. 15 Miami Dolphins

• Kiper's pick: Mark Ingram, Alabama running back
• McShay's pick: Mike Pouncey, Florida center
• Bunting's pick: Mike Pouncey, Florida center
• Davis' pick: Mike Pouncey, Florida center
• King's pick: Andy Dalton, Texas Christian quarterback
• Nawrocki's pick: Ryan Mallett, Arkansas quarterback
• Rang's pick: Mark Ingram, Alabama running back
• Reuter's pick: Mark Ingram, Alabama running back
• Wilson's pick: Mike Pouncey, Florida center

No. 17 New England Patriots (from Oakland Raiders)

• Kiper's pick: Cameron Jordan, California defensive end
• McShay's pick: Anthony Castonzo, Boston College tackle
• Bunting's pick: Cameron Jordan, California defensive end
• Davis' pick: Anthony Castonzo, Boston College tackle
• King's pick: Mike Pouncey, Florida center
• Nawrocki's pick: Anthony Castonzo, Boston College tackle
• Rang's pick: J.J. Watt, Wisconsin defensive end
• Reuter's pick: Aldon Smith, Missouri defensive end
• Wilson's pick: Cameron Jordan, California defensive end

No. 28 New England Patriots

• Kiper's pick: Justin Houston, Georgia outside linebacker
• McShay's pick: Mark Ingram, Alabama running back
• Bunting's pick: Danny Watkins, Baylor guard
• Davis' pick: Akeem Ayers, UCLA outside linebacker
• King's pick: Trade out with the Tennessee Titans
• Nawrocki's pick: Mark Ingram, Alabama running back
• Rang's pick: Danny Watkins, Baylor guard
• Reuter's pick: Cameron Heyward, Ohio State defensive end
• Wilson's pick: Mark Ingram, Alabama running back

No. 30 New York Jets

• Kiper's pick: Cameron Heyward, Ohio State defensive end
• McShay's pick: Phil Taylor, Baylor nose tackle
• Bunting's pick: Justin Houston, Georgia outside linebacker
• Davis' pick: Phil Taylor, Baylor nose tackle
• King's pick: Muhammad Wilkerson, Temple defensive lineman
• Nawrocki's pick: Akeem Ayers, UCLA outside linebacker
• Rang's pick: Phil Taylor, Baylor nose tackle
• Reuter's pick: Jabaal Sheard, Pittsburgh defensive end
• Wilson's pick: Justin Houston, Georgia outside linebacker

When I sat across the table from New York Jets head coach Rex Ryan a few weeks ago in New Orleans, I said "I assume you're not going to draft a quarterback this year."

"I'm assuming that, too," said Ryan, leaning forward with a laugh.

The reason I mentioned quarterbacks during the annual coaches' media breakfast at the NFL owners meeting is because I wanted Ryan's take on Auburn quarterback Cam Newton and Missouri quarterback Blaine Gabbert.

I figured Ryan was one of the few men in the room who would give an honest take because he didn't have to pretend to be interested in either prospect.

So which does Ryan believe is better? He spoke more highly of both, but was more effusive with Newton.

"It depends on what kind of system you have and all that, what kind of offense you have," Ryan said. "I really like the kid from Auburn, Cam Newton. That's a big, talented, athletic kid. He can throw a strawberry through a battleship. He's got all the tools.

"Then I think the kid Gabbert is an excellent athlete. Florida State kid [Christian Ponder] is good. There's some good quarterbacks this year. But I think you've got to look at your system."

Chances are Newton or Gabbert -- perhaps both -- will be on the board when the Buffalo Bills pick third. Who would Ryan be most concerned competing against within the division?

"I would love to see any of the rookies in there, short-term," Ryan said with a bright smile. "Long-term? Not so much.

"Those guys kind of get the deer-in-the-headlight looks. As a defensive coach, you're like 'Oh!' You know, they think they've seen every coverage, and they think they've seen this and that. They haven't even come close. There's a lot to learn.

"The kid from Harvard, this [Ryan] Fitzpatrick kid, is a pretty good quarterback. It's going to be interesting to see what Buffalo does there."

So if the Jets aren't going to draft a quarterback, as Ryan said, then why did TCU quarterback Andy Dalton work out for Jets offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer last week in Fort Worth, Texas?

Probably the same reason the New England Patriots not-so-secretly welcomed Washington quarterback Jake Locker last week and reportedly will meet with Arkansas quarterback Ryan Mallett this week.

The likely objective is to drive up the value of their draft picks by giving teams who might want Dalton -- or Mallett or Locker -- something to think about.

The Jets own the 30th selection and probably would love to trade back to acquire more picks. They lost their second-rounder in the trade for cornerback Antonio Cromartie.

Mark Sanchez is the Jets' quarterback. They don't need another young prospect there. They also will have difficulty identifying a specific player who will help them immediately at No. 30.

Might as well trade back a little and accumulate multiple draft picks.

Jon Gruden's "QB Camp" catches up with Texas Christian quarterback Andy Dalton to dissect his skills and reveal some personality.

Dalton is considered among the second tier of quarterbacks in this year's draft class and could be of particular interest to the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins.

Gruden calls Dalton "one of the great decision-makers in college football history," but is particularly critical of Dalton's penchant to "put the dagger in people" rather than make the safe play at times.

BUFFALO -- The Buffalo Bills own the third and 34th picks in this month's draft and have been looking hard at quarterbacks. They've spent time with Cam Newton, Blaine Gabbert and Christian Ponder.

What is head coach Chan Gailey looking for?

Gailey, a noted quarterback connoisseur, gave some insight Tuesday afternoon. He explained his chief criteria for a successful quarterback.

"The two most important things about playing quarterback in this league: accuracy and decision-making," Gailey said at a luncheon held by the Monday Quarterback Club at the Adam's Mark hotel.

"Would you like to have a guy that's mobile? Yes. Would you like to have a guy that is extremely intelligent and is smarter than the coach and can make good decisions on the field? You bet you would like that."

But Gailey continued to reiterate throwing the ball on target and making the correct reads.

Among the top quarterbacks in this year's draft class, here are some 2010 completion percentages:

• Greg McElroy, Alabama: 70.9 percent
• Andy Dalton, Texas Christian: 66.1 percent
• Cam Newton, Auburn: 66.1 percent
• Colin Kaepernick, Nevada: 64.9 percent
• Ryan Mallett, Arkansas: 64.7 percent
• Ricky Stanzi, Iowa: 64.1 percent
• Blaine Gabbert, Missouri: 63.4 percent
• Christian Ponder, Florida State: 61.5 percent
• Jake Locker, Washington: 55.4 percent

Gailey elaborated on what goes into being a sharp decision-maker.

"Knowledge is part of decision-making," Gailey said. "Speed in making that decision is important because you don't have a lot of time, standing back there. And then how fast can you give back the information that you've been given.

"If it takes a guy four days to absorb it all and finally get it, that doesn't help us on a Wednesday practice if I gave it to him Tuesday. ... If I give [information] to them Tuesday, they've got to be able to give it back Wednesday."

Bills starter Ryan Fitzpatrick is known for his grasp of complex NFL concepts. The Harvard grad is entering his seventh season.

Speculating about a college quarterback's judiciousness and whether or not he's worth a third or 34th pick requires a leap of faith at some point.

"There are some things we can teach," Gailey said. "There are some things where a guy has a feel for the game and he understands what you're trying to get done."

ESPN draft analyst Todd McShay shares his latest thoughts about the top handful of quarterbacks in this year's pool and where they might land. McShay thinks as many as seven quarterbacks could be taken by the end of the second round.

McShay's best guesses almost three weeks before the draft:

1. Cam Newton to the Carolina Panthers
5. Blaine Gabbert to the Arizona Cardinals
34. Andy Dalton to the Buffalo Bills
35. Ryan Mallett to the Cincinnati Bengals
41. Jake Locker to the Washington Redskins
45. Christian Ponder to the San Francisco 49ers