AFC East: Antonio Gates


Unlike the NFC, the AFC playoff bracket went according to form and has the top two seeds meeting in the conference title game Sunday. The New England Patriots (14-3) and Baltimore Ravens (13-4) have been the best two teams in the conference from start to finish.

But only one team can advance to Indianapolis to play in Super Bowl XLVI. That is where AFC East blogger James Walker and AFC North blogger Jamison Hensley come in to examine the matchups and pressing issues with the Patriots and Ravens.

James Walker: Let’s start with the quarterbacks, Jamison, because I think this is where the Patriots have the biggest advantage. Tom Brady is playing at an unbelievable level. He tied an NFL postseason record with six touchdown passes against a pretty good Denver Broncos defense. I’m not sure Baltimore -- or any defense -- has an answer for the Patriots’ passing game right now. Behind Brady, the Patriots are averaging 40.5 points in their past four games. New England’s offense is peaking at the right time. If New England scores early, that puts an enormous amount of pressure on Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco to respond. I doubt a Brady versus Flacco shootout is a game Baltimore wants to play.

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Tom Brady
Michael Ivins/US PresswireTom Brady was masterful in the Patriots' playoff rout of Denver.
Jamison Hensley: You’re definitely right about that, James. Flacco has thrown for fewer than 175 yards in his past three games. That’s like one half for Brady. Flacco gets a lot of criticism because he isn’t consistent -- and that’s true. He has flashes when he looks like he’s a top-10 quarterback, guiding a last-minute touchdown drive at Pittsburgh and leading the Ravens back from a 21-point deficit against Arizona. Then, there are times when he looks like he is among the league’s worst, like when he doesn’t complete a pass in two quarters against the Jets. But the Ravens have never had to rely on Flacco in the playoffs. That’s the time of the season when the Baltimore defense thrives. There’s a huge disparity between Brady and Flacco. But there is an even bigger one between the defenses of the Patriots and Ravens, who are ranked No. 3 in the NFL in fewest yards and points allowed.

James Walker: We’ve both watched Baltimore’s defense up close for years, and I’ve always marveled at its consistency. The biggest thing is you know what you’re going to get from Baltimore’s defense on Sunday. I really have no idea what to expect from the Patriots’ defense. I did see with my own eyes last week a group that is capable of playing well. The Patriots actually have the top-rated defense in the playoffs, although it’s just for one game. I won’t go overboard with the Patriots stopping Tim Tebow. Any playoff team not named the Pittsburgh Steelers could do that. (I had to jab your AFC North brethren.) But I’ve seen too many weeks in which New England looked awful defensively and gave up tons of yards. The Ravens’ offense should have the advantage as long as they stick with tailback Ray Rice, who has killed New England in the past. Speaking of the past, Jamison, how much stock do you put in Baltimore’s previous playoff victory against the Patriots in January 2010?

Jamison Hensley: Just like you can’t go overboard on one game for the New England defense, you can’t go overboard with that playoff game. Both teams are different from that game two years ago. The Patriots didn’t even have Wes Welker for that one. The biggest lingering effect is that the Ravens have confidence that they can win in New England. Few teams have ever beaten Brady on his home turf in the playoffs, and Ray Lewis and the gang know they can do it, because they did it before. Of course, that game turned on the first offensive play from scrimmage when Rice ran 83 yards for a touchdown. And that’s something that hasn’t changed for the Ravens. Rice is key to the Ravens winning. Baltimore is 9-0 when Rice carries the ball at least 20 times. He has to be on the mind of every New England defender.

James Walker: There’s no denying Rice is to Baltimore what Brady is to New England. The performance of both players will probably determine the outcome of this game. You astutely pointed out Welker’s absence from the January 2010 playoff game. Two additional players not in that game were tight ends Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez, who were drafted the following April. Two seasons later, the pair completely change the dynamics of New England’s offense. The Ravens’ defense is great. But I’m looking down their roster and I’m having a lot of trouble finding linebackers who are fast enough and defensive backs who are strong enough to stop New England’s star tight ends. The Ravens might opt to double one -- usually Gronkowski -- but I don’t think they have an answer for both. After watching the Ravens' defense all season, Jamison, what strategy do you think they will employ?

Jamison Hensley: The Ravens played mostly zone against Texans rookie quarterback T.J. Yates, but they can’t do that against Brady. He would pick them apart. Baltimore has to go to man coverage to be successful. The defender to watch is linebacker Brendon Ayanbadejo. He’s known as the team’s special-teams ace, but he plays an important role in the nickel defense. The Ravens have contained some of the top tight ends they’ve gone against in San Diego’s Antonio Gates (two catches for 31 yards) and San Francisco’s Vernon Davis (four for 38 yards). The problem is, the Ravens haven’t faced a team with two quality tight ends like Gronkowski and Hernandez. Baltimore’s best bet is to get pressure on Brady. That starts with Terrell Suggs, who will test both of the Patriots’ offensive tackles.

James Walker: Suggs has been a monster this season. I also think Brady might be Suggs’ least-favorite quarterback, so there won’t be any lack of motivation there. But I noticed something important in both AFC divisional games that should be mentioned. Baltimore didn’t get a single sack against Yates and Houston, and New England held Denver without a sack, despite facing a defense with two of the league’s top pass-rushers in Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil. Maybe that was more scheme last week on Baltimore’s part, because defensive coordinator Chuck Pagano usually gets after it. But New England legitimately stuffed Denver’s pass rush for four quarters with an up-tempo offense that used a lot of half-huddle/no-huddle and quick throws to Gronkowski, Hernandez and Welker. I think you’re going to see the Patriots speed up the tempo again against Baltimore, especially at home where the crowd is quiet and communication on offense is easier.

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Terrell Suggs
Mitch Stringer/US PresswireKeeping Terrell Suggs away from QB Tom Brady will be a priority for New England on Sunday.
Jamison Hensley: As we’ve seen so far in the playoffs, home field has really been an advantage. Only one home team (Green Bay) has lost so far this postseason. The Ravens have had their trouble on the road this season, losing at Seattle and Jacksonville -- teams they should’ve beaten. But Baltimore has a great track record of winning on the road in the playoffs. The Ravens have won at Miami, Tennessee, Kansas City and, of course, New England under coach John Harbaugh in the postseason. How the Ravens handle the atmosphere on the road will be one of many keys in this matchup.

James Walker: The Patriots and Ravens played all season for this gigantic opportunity. New England just won one more game to force the road to Indianapolis to go through Gillette Stadium. But I think either club would represent the conference well and has a great chance to win the Super Bowl. Either way, Jamison, just make sure one of us brings that Lombardi Trophy back to the AFC side, where it belongs. I was kind of tired of that "Discount Double-check" thing NFC North blogger Kevin Seifert kept doing in front of us for the past year.

Jamison Hensley: I hear you. We’ll just have to wait until Sunday to see whether Bill Belichick’s hoodie or Flacco’s Fu Manchu mustache will be advancing. History says this will be a close game. Three of the past four meetings between the Ravens and Patriots have been decided by six points or fewer. For coverage leading up to the AFC Championship Game, everyone can check back to the AFC East and AFC North blogs all week. And, James, it will be just a little colder in New England than Miami, so remember to pack a jacket.

Rob Gronkowski sets TD record

December, 11, 2011
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Rob Gronkowski of the New England Patriots has set the mark for most touchdown catches in a season by a tight end, grabbing his 14th.

Gronkowski's record-breaking score came on an 11-yard pass from Tom Brady with 5:49 left in the first quarter Sunday against the Washington Redskins.

The previous record of 13 TD catches by a tight end originally was set by Antonio Gates in 2004, then matched by Vernon Davis in 2009.

O-linemen fight for Power Rankings respect

May, 31, 2011
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Next up in ESPN.com's Power Rankings series were the best offensive players who aren't quarterbacks.

I was surprised to see only three offensive linemen appear on the ballots of our eight panelists: Miami Dolphins left tackle Jake Long, Cleveland Browns left tackle Joe Thomas and New York Jets center Nick Mangold.

Only four voters, including me, mentioned more than one lineman. AFC South blogger Paul Kuharsky and NFC South blogger Pat Yaskinkas must have been assembling fantasy teams because they didn't name a single grunt.

My ballot:
  1. Adrian Peterson, Vikings running back
  2. Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals receiver
  3. Andre Johnson, Texans receiver
  4. Chris Johnson, Titans running back
  5. Calvin Johnson, Lions receiver
  6. Jake Long, Dolphins left tackle
  7. Antonio Gates, Chargers tight end
  8. Nick Mangold, Jets center
  9. Roddy White, Falcons receiver
  10. Jason Witten, Cowboys tight end

Nobody can argue against how crucial offensive linemen are to a team's success. And since we removed quarterbacks from the equation, they make even more sense to appear on this list. If a team has an established quarterback, then the next thing to do is protect him.

Without offensive linemen, there's not enough time for the star receivers to get open or lanes for running backs to bolt through.

The importance of left tackles was underscored when the Dolphins selected Long first overall in 2008. Long has lived up to the expectations at a critical position by making the Pro Bowl each of this three seasons. He was voted All-Pro last year.

Mangold is the best center in the game. While centers aren't necessarily viewed as prominent enough to draft early, Mangold's dominance is indisputable. He has been an All-Pro the past two seasons and a Pro Bowler three straight. That's why he made my list.

Are 32 players better than Tom Brady?

May, 9, 2011
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While I stepped away from the AFC East blog for a week, Khaled Elsayed of Pro Football Focus released a series of articles in which he rated the 101 best players from last season.

The list generated murmurs about Elsayed's sanity because he listed New England Patriots quarterback and reigning (unanimous) MVP Tom Brady at No. 33.

Although grading players off television isn't the same as grading coaches' game film, and grades are only as good as the evaluators and the consistency of their systems, Pro Football Focus at least puts in the time to scrutinize every play from every game in myriad ways.

Elsayed has a basis for his opinion beyond pulling names out of the air, which many readers will assume he did.

Bart Scott, not considered the best inside linebacker on the New York Jets roster, was No. 29.

Buffalo Bills defensive tackle Kyle Williams was rated third behind only Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers and San Francisco 49ers defensive end Justin Smith and way ahead of superstars such as Indianapolis Colts quarterback Peyton Manning and Houston Texans receiver Andre Johnson.

Jets cornerback Darrelle Revis isn't on the list anywhere.

The list is, to be diplomatic, interesting.

The AFC East representatives who did make the list:
  • 3. Kyle Williams, Bills defensive tackle: The only Bill on the chart.
  • 26. Jake Long, Dolphins left tackle: The highest-rated tackle -- right or left.
  • 29. Bart Scott, Jets inside linebacker: Elsayed calls David Harris "inferior" and didn't include him.
  • 30. Nick Mangold, Jets center: The highest rated at his position.
  • 31. Cameron Wake, Dolphins outside linebacker: Dolphins should offer him for Brady, straight up.
  • 33. Tom Brady, Patriots quarterback: Brady was the sixth QB. Hey, at least he beat out Antonio Garay (37th).
  • 60. Rob Gronkowski, Patriots tight end: rated fourth behind Dallas Clark, Marcedes Lewis and Antonio Gates.
  • 67. Logan Mankins, Patriots guard: Run blocking was dominant enough to overcome a half-season of work.
  • 70. D'Brickashaw Ferguson, Jets left tackle: Ahead of Joe Thomas.
  • 71. Devin McCourty, Patriots cornerback: Ahead of Asante Samuel and Brent Grimes.
  • 73. Sione Pouha, Jets nose tackle: Combination of size and hustle mentioned as reason he's so highly rated.
  • 85. Shaun Ellis, Jets defensive end: Division-leading fifth Jets player on the list.
  • 89. Paul Soliai, Dolphins nose tackle: Elsayed said his final nine weeks graded among best in the NFL.
  • 99. Anthony Fasano, Dolphins tight end: On the list for his blocking acumen.

Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments section below this article.

I expect a lively discussion.

Keller doesn't make TE Power Rankings cut

March, 29, 2011
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I understand why New York Jets tight end Dustin Keller didn't generate more attention in ESPN.com's positional Power Rankings this week.

He's one of those players you need to watch on a regular basis to fully appreciate him. Keller's numbers don't stack up with the most prolific tight ends because he doesn't get the opportunities they do.

That's the only reason he didn't make the Power Rankings cut, finishing 12th. Only three voters on our panel listed him on their ballots. Here's mine:
  1. Antonio Gates, San Diego Chargers
  2. Jason Witten, Dallas Cowboys
  3. Dallas Clark, Indianapolis Colts
  4. Vernon Davis, San Francisco 49ers
  5. Marcedes Lewis, Jacksonville Jaguars
  6. Dustin Keller, New York Jets
  7. Benjamin Watson, Cleveland Browns
  8. Zach Miller, Oakland Raiders
  9. Tony Gonzalez, Atlanta Falcons
  10. Brandon Pettigrew, Detroit Lions

Keller is a weapon all over the field. He's not just a threat in the red zone. He can stretch a defense, too. Only six tight ends had multiple plays of 40-plus yards last year. Keller was one of them.

Through the first four weeks of the season, Keller had 19 receptions for 254 yards and five touchdowns. But he didn't get as much consideration when Santonio Holmes returned from a four-game suspension and joined a receiving corps that included Braylon Edwards and Jerricho Cotchery.

So when you check the final numbers for tight ends last season, you see Keller ranked 11th in receptions, ninth in yards, sixth in average yards (minimum 40 catches) and tied for eighth in touchdowns.

It's easy to see how he can get bumped from the Power Rankings top 10 when opinions are in play and an injured star such as Clark must be accounted for.

As for the rest of my ballot, the players I must justify are Watson's inclusion and Washington Redskins tight end Chris Cooley's exclusion.

As with a few of my previous Power Rankings ballots, this comes down to personal taste. Cooley has great numbers, but so would a lot of other tight ends if they were targeted 123 times in a season. Furthermore, those targets are quick, high-percentage throws. Cooley had only nine plays of 20 yards or more and none that went at least 40 yards. He also fumbled three times.

A lack of big plays also is why I had Gonzalez rated so low. He had only five plays of 20-plus yards and none over 40 yards.

Witten was targeted a league-high 126 times, but he had 17 more receptions, 153 more yards and six more touchdowns than Cooley.

Watson, to me, was a bigger force in Cleveland's offense than other tight ends were to their teams. He finished fifth among all tight ends in receptions, fifth in yards and 13th in average yards (minimum 40 catches). Watson tied Cooley for third with 40 first-down receptions -- but on 25 fewer targets.

Check back later for my rundown of AFC East tight ends.

Prolonged lockout hurts undrafted rookies

March, 3, 2011
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What players and teams will be impacted most by a lengthy NFL lockout?

ESPN's blog network put together a short list of unfavorable situations around the league.

NFC West blogger Mike Sando focused on the San Francisco 49ers and other young teams that will have to put development on hold. NFC North blogger Kevin Seifert looked at the Minnesota Vikings' undesirable troika of new head coach, new offensive coordinator and new quarterback. NFC South blogger Pat Yasinskas examined the plight of Tampa Bay Buccaneers receiver Arrelious Benn. AFC North blogger James Walker shined a spotlight on Cleveland Browns quarterback Colt McCoy and his new coaches.

Here's my contribution to the project, an overview of how undrafted rookies will be adversely affected and why every team would suffer as a result ...

The NFL draft is stressful enough for prospects. They wait for their phones to light up, watch ESPN's ticker, repeatedly click refresh on their browsers or try to distract themselves by refusing to pay any attention at all.

A select few know they'll be drafted. A larger group wonders whether their names will be called before Mr. Irrelevant closes the show.

This year's draft will be even more worrisome for the latter group.

Absent a collective bargaining agreement, the draft still will take place April 28-30. But players who aren't selected in those seven rounds won't be allowed to sign with teams because free agency won't exist.

The moments immediately after the draft involve frenzied phone calls. Teams scurry to sign unattached prospects in hopes of landing the next Tony Romo, Arian Foster, LeGarrette Blount, Wes Welker, Antonio Gates or Bart Scott.

The AFC East is rife with undrafted starters. Two of the four team-leading rushers weren't drafted: New England Patriots running back BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Buffalo Bills running back Fred Jackson.

Rookie free agents are necessary to building a roster and maintaining a personnel budget. Although this year's undrafted rookies eventually will get opportunities to find work once there's a new CBA, a prolonged lockout will cripple their chances of making an immediate impact.

When a new CBA is struck, veteran free agents will overshadow the undrafted rookies. Under normal circumstances, the veterans have been picked over long before the draft begins. That allows front offices to concentrate solely on the newbies. We can expect a free-for-all this time.

Undrafted rookies also will face a tougher time when it comes to development. These are marginal pro prospects, long shots who must get into a team's offseason conditioning program as quickly as possible. It would be almost impossible to expect a rookie free agent to understand NFL schemes minus minicamps and voluntary workouts and with a compressed training camp.

These also are the kinds of players who make their way into the NFL on special teams. Imagine how many mistakes we'll see if teams insist on using their undrafted and late-round rookies on return and coverage units.

Will Patriots TE success cause a trend?

March, 1, 2011
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INDIANAPOLIS -- The NFL is a league of imitators. One team does something well, another team will try to emulate it.

The New England Patriots seemed progressively retro when they morphed their shotgun offense into sets with multiple tight ends. The Patriots used rookies Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez and in-line blocker Alge Crumpler masterfully.

At the NFL scouting combine in Lucas Oil Stadium, I asked Buffalo Bills coach Chan Gailey if he thought the Patriots' success could spark a trend and make an otherwise weak tight ends class more valuable in this year's draft.

"That's all on who you have," Gailey said. "If you have those two tight ends [the Patriots] had, you've got to think about 'How am I going to use these guys? How am I going to get them in the game?'

"If you get that personnel, you've got to use it."

Gailey doesn't have that personnel. He is a bright offensive coach with a gaping hole at tight end.

Bills tight ends combined for 23 receptions, 187 yards and one touchdown last season.

Jonathan Stupar was their most prolific tight end with a dozen catches for 111 yards and no touchdowns. That was an acceptable week for Gronkowski, Hernandez or New York Jets tight end Dustin Keller.

By comparison, Patriots tight ends combined for 93 catches, 1,161 yards and 18 touchdowns. Keller had a Jets-high 55 catches for 687 yards and five touchdowns. Miami Dolphins tight end Anthony Fasano had 39 receptions for 528 yards and four touchdowns, and that apparently wasn't enough. The Dolphins reportedly gave free agent Jeremy Shockey a physical last week.

Buffalo's disappointment at the position can be summed up with Shawn Nelson, a 2009 fourth-round pick who missed more games while serving a drug suspension (four) than he had receptions (three).

"The question for us is where we want a blocker because we want to run the ball and be effective there," Gailey said. "We'd like to have a pass-catcher.

"We just have to find the best football player at that position, knowing that we have to have at least one blocker and one receiver. You'd like to have two in one. But you may not be able to find that guy."

The Bills are intrigued by Scott Chandler, who they pulled off the waiver wire from the Dallas Cowboys in December.

Chandler has had the misfortune of playing on teams with established tight ends. The San Diego Chargers drafted him in the fourth round in 2007, but they have Antonio Gates. He signed with the Cowboys in 2009, but they have Jason Witten. The New York Giants signed him off the Cowboys' practice squad later that year, but they had Kevin Boss.

Gailey said Chandler "gives us a chance at that" two-way tight end. "So it'll be interesting for me."

Notre Dame tight end Kyle Rudolph is considered by many analysts to be atop this year's draft class. Virgil Green from Nevada has some scouts buzzing, but he's undersized at 6-foot-3 and 249 pounds and is from the H-back mold.

Green-Ellis outruns an entire division

January, 3, 2011
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Before the season, if I'd have given you eight guesses to predict the AFC East's only 1,000-yard rusher, chances are you wouldn't have gotten the right answer.

Of all the players to choose from -- Ricky Williams, Ronnie Brown, LaDainian Tomlinson, Shonn Greene, Fred Jackson, Marshawn Lynch, C.J. Spiller, Fred Taylor, Laurence Maroney -- somebody buried on his team's depth chart topped them all.

BenJarvus Green-EllisElsa/Getty ImagesBenJarvus Green-Ellis finished the season with 1,008 rushing yards and 13 TDs.
Ladies and gentlemen, BenJarvus Green-Ellis was the AFC East's only 1,000-yard rusher.

Seventeen players rushed for at least 1,000 yards, but Green-Ellis was alone in the division. He finished with 1,008 yards. His 13 touchdowns ranked second in the league.

It was one of a few surprising stats for AFC East breakout performers this year.

But a few notables fell short of milestones.

Miami Dolphins outside linebacker Cameron Wake went into the final weekend with the NFL sacks lead, but he was surpassed by Dallas Cowboys outside linebacker DeMarcus Ware and Kansas City Chiefs outside linebacker Tamba Hali. Wake finished third with 14 sacks.

Patriots running back Danny Woodhead needed 93 yards to reach 1,000 from scrimmage, but he left Sunday's game against the Dolphins with a head injury after gaining just 19 yards. Woodhead did break the club record for rushing average at 5.68 yards, edging Don Calhoun.

Buffalo Bills receiver Steve Johnson, a 2008 seventh-round draft choice, needed another touchdown catch to tie the franchise record of 11 held by Billy Brooks, but the Bills' offense was blanked. Johnson eclipsed 1,000 receiving yards earlier.

Established stars attained some milestones.

As expected, Patriots quarterback Tom Brady won the passing crown with a 111.0 rating. He threw an NFL-high 36 touchdowns and an NFL-low (among qualifying passers) four interceptions.

Brady also extended his streak of attempts without an interception to 335. He'll pick that back up in September.

Because of Brady's efficiency, the Patriots broke the record for fewest turnovers. The finished with 10, three fewer than the Dolphins and New York Giants from 2008 and two fewer than the Chiefs in the strike-shortened 1982 season.

Dolphins receiver Brandon Marshall had his streak of 100 reception seasons snapped at three (as did the deactivated Wes Welker), but Marshall did gain over 1,000 yards a fourth straight time.

Patriots linebacker Jerod Mayo finished as the unofficial tackles leader with 175.

And for the rookies:

New England's Rob Gronkowski had 10 touchdown catches to tie Antonio Gates and Marcedes Lewis for the most among all tight ends.

Patriots cornerback Devin McCourty had seven interceptions, one behind Baltimore Ravens safety Ed Reed for the league lead.

Ron Artest wants to play TE for the Jets

December, 31, 2010
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I must apologize to my readers.

Perhaps I imbibed too much eggnog last week and was enraptured by all those Burl Ives tunes, but amid all my Christmas mirth I missed one of the greatest stories of the year.

Artest
Artest
Volatile basketball star Ron Artest announced he wants to play tight end for the New York Jets.

What could go wrong?

Artest was a guest on "Pardon the Interruption" two days before Christmas. He has been making the media rounds for mental health awareness. Insert your own Jets joke here.

Maybe there's room in the organization for someone with scandal experience. Artest, a 6-foot-7 Los Angeles Lakers forward, has been involved in many wacky incidents over the years, most infamously the 2004 brawl with fans in Detroit. Artest is the subject of a Toronto art exhibit that focuses on his history of outlandish behavior.

"PTI" co-host Tony Kornheiser asked how serious Artest is about the NFL.

"It's definitely an ambition," Artest said. "I think you only live once if I'm not mistaken. I wish I lived twice. So any time I have a chance to take advantage ... still being athletic enough, when you think about my dreams as a kid -- boxing, playing football -- you think about certain things. You think 'If I had the opportunity to play, why not take advantage of it? Why let it sit on the table?

"If there's a possibility, and if I do get a chance, you won't see Ron Artest saying 'Nah, I'll pass.' You'll see Ron Artest saying 'I wan to see if I can do it.' "

Artest turned 31 in November and hails from Queens. He's a longtime Jets fan.

"If I did get the opportunity I would not have a preference for a team because I'm not good enough where I can say I want to play for a particular team," Artest said. "But in a perfect world it would be the Jets, tight end for the Jets."

Basketball players sometimes make great tight ends. San Diego Chargers star Antonio Gates played basketball -- and no football -- at Kent State. Tony Gonzalez, a future Hall of Famer with the Atlanta Falcons, played college hoops.

The Jets experimented with Cleveland State power forward J'Nathan Bullock last year, but he couldn't make the team.

Last year, I examined what kind of football player Lebron James would've been had he gone that route. James was an All-Ohio receiver as high school sophomore, and some NFL observers quoted in the story projected him as a star tight end.

What AFC East players make the Pro Bowl?

December, 28, 2010
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The NFL will announce Pro Bowl rosters at 7 p.m. Tuesday.

Here's a look at the most likely candidates from each AFC East club.

You'll notice a dearth of wide receivers. Before the season began, that looked like a loaded position within the division. They've been good, but none has the numbers worthy of Honolulu.

As a reminder, fans, coaches and players each count for one-third of the selection process.

Buffalo Bills

Legit candidates: None.

Outside shots: Receiver Steve Johnson, defensive tackle Kyle Williams.

Note: The Bills have a lot of players, Williams included, who are easy to root for because they were late-round draft choices or not drafted at all. But they weren't prolific enough to crack a Pro Bowl roster this season. Williams' 5.5 sacks are tied for sixth among all defensive tackles, but it will be tough to surpass Vince Wilfork, Haloti Ngata and Casey Hampton when the Bills rank dead last against the run. Williams could make it as an alternate. Johnson has impressive numbers, but his drops will cost him.

Miami Dolphins

Legit candidates: Offensive tackle Jake Long, outside linebacker Cameron Wake, kicker Dan Carpenter.

Outside shots: Inside linebacker Karlos Dansby, cornerback Vontae Davis, punter Brandon Fields.

Note: Long has been selected for the Pro Bowl each of his first two seasons. He has the reputation and is having a decent season while fighting through a shoulder injury. Wake leads the NFL with 14 sacks. Dansby has never been so much as an alternate before and didn't play like the highest-paid inside linebacker in NFL history. Fields likely won’t displace Shane Lechler, but might have garnered enough attention with his brilliant performance (56.4-yard average on 10 punts) to beat the Jets in Week 14. Carpenter went as an alternate last year and carried the Dolphins for a long stretch, but his four misses right before the players and coaches turned in their ballots will hurt.

New England Patriots

Legit candidates: Quarterback Tom Brady, receiver Wes Welker, nose tackle Vince Wilfork, inside linebacker Jerod Mayo, cornerback Devin McCourty.

Outside shots: Tight end Rob Gronkowski, guard Logan Mankins.

Note: Brady and Wilfork are locks. Mayo leads the NFL in tackles (unofficially). McCourty is having a fine rookie season and is tied for second with six interceptions. Quite a few receivers have had better seasons than Welker, but he has an established reputation and captured even more respect from players and coaches for his remarkable recovery from reconstructive knee surgery. Gronkowski also has been sensational in his first year. He's second to Antonio Gates and tied with Marcedes Lewis for touchdowns among tight ends. Mankins has been phenomenal, but didn't join the team until November.

New York Jets

Legit candidates: Center Nick Mangold, guard Brandon Moore, cornerback Darrelle Revis, special-teamer Brad Smith.

Outside shots: Tackle D'Brickashaw Ferguson, inside linebacker David Harris.

Note: Mangold and Revis are stars who automatically get voted for. They'll probably get selected again. Smith would be a newcomer. Smith is deserving as a return specialist with a 28.6-yard kickoff average. But will he beat out Jacoby Ford (three touchdowns) and Joshua Cribbs? Moore seems to gain increasing respect from opposing players and coaches every year, and with Mankins a difficult pick and Alan Faneca out of the AFC, maybe Moore makes it. Ferguson and Harris have been fantastic, but they're at tough positions. Ferguson went to the Pro Bowl last year as an alternate.

Final Word: AFC East

November, 19, 2010
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» NFC Final Word: East | West | North | South » AFC: East | West | North | South

Five nuggets of knowledge about Week 11:

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BenJarvus Green-Ellis
AP Photo/Gene J. PuskarBenJarvus Green-Ellis has an enviable matchup against the Colts' 29th-ranked rush defense.
BenJarvus Green-Ellis can steal the spotlight Sunday in Gillette Stadium. With so much focus on the quarterbacks in Sunday's blockbuster between the Colts and Patriots, the player who could make biggest impact is Green-Ellis. The Colts rank 29th in run defense, allowing 133.2 yards a game and are tied for last in average per carry at a robust 5.0 yards. The Colts also play a conservative 4-3 defense. While they collect sacks, they blitz less than any other NFL team. Green-Ellis must come off the field at times because he's a liability at picking up the blitz, giving Danny Woodhead more snaps. That shouldn't be as much of an issue this week. The last time Green-Ellis faced a 4-3 defense, he ran 17 times for 112 yards and two touchdowns against the Vikings -- and the Patriots didn't have Pro Bowl left guard Logan Mankins then.

The Dolphins should put Chad Henne on injured reserve. Let's face it: The Dolphins are long shots to make the playoffs. They're 5-5, in third place in the AFC East, are at a serious disadvantage with wild-card tiebreakers and keep sustaining injuries, especially on the offensive line. The only reason to get Henne back on the field is if they were to have a legitimate chance to make a run and can be sure he can stay upright. Tyler Thigpen, a quarterback known for his mobility, was sacked six times Thursday night by the Bears, who went into Week 11 ranked 30th in sacks per pass play. There's no sense in risking further damage to Henne's knee for such little reward.

Where has Jets tight end Dustin Keller gone? Keller was torrid out of the gates -- and looked an awful lot like Antonio Gates -- with 19 receptions for 254 yards and five touchdowns through the first four games. Since then, he has caught four passes once and has zero touchdowns. Keller's downturn coincides with the return of receiver Santonio Holmes' from a four-game suspension, but Jets offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer should be able to get Keller more involved than he has been.

Leodis McKelvin better not guard Terrell Owens on Sunday. A tweet from Bills cornerback Drayton Florence to Bengals receiver Chad Ochocinco professed Florence will line up against Owens, while McKelvin will take Ochocinco. Bills fans should hope Florence isn't fibbing. Some of my most vivid memories from Buffalo's 2009 training camp were of Owens scalding McKelvin. That was with Trent Edwards at quarterback, not Carson Palmer. It got to the point you felt bad for the young cornerback as Owens simply toyed with him on routes in 11-on-11 drills.

Cameron Wake is the NFL's best pass-rusher on passing downs. ESPN Stats & Information delivered a neat item about the Dolphins' outside linebacker. Wake has recorded an NFL-best 8.5 sacks with five or more defensive backs on the field (i.e., obvious passing downs). Clay Matthews has eight such sacks. Brian Orakpo is third with 7.5 sacks. What better time for a pass-rusher to come through than when the opponent needs to throw?

Video: Patriots at Chargers recap

October, 25, 2010
10/25/10
1:58
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ESPN analyst Eric Allen breaks down the New England Patriots' dramatic victory against the San Diego Chargers in Qualcomm Stadium.

Video: Patriots at Chargers 'Field Pass'

October, 23, 2010
10/23/10
2:20
PM ET

ESPN football experts Marcellus Wiley, Mark Schlereth and Matthew Berry share some insights for Sunday's game between the New England Patriots and San Diego Chargers in Qualcomm Stadium.

Numbers add up to a tight one for Patriots

October, 21, 2010
10/21/10
9:51
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The New England Patriots carry serious momentum into Sunday's game against the San Diego Chargers in Qualcomm Stadium.

The Patriots have won three in a row. Our friends at AccuScore calculate their chances of making the playoffs soared from 50.8 percent to 70.4 percent with last week's victory over the Baltimore Ravens.

The San Diego Chargers, meanwhile, are reeling. They're plagued by injuries and have lost three of their past four, including two in a row to the Oakland Raiders and St. Louis Rams. Their chances of making the playoffs dropped from 74.4 percent to 48.8 percent with the Rams debacle.

After 10,000 computer simulations, AccuScore's computers spat out the prediction for Sunday's game: The Chargers are 56 percent favorites.

Go figure.

Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers is the spotlight variable here. He projects for a nice day of 260 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. The more yardage he throws for means victory is less likely and interceptions a greater concern.

If the Patriots can force at least two turnovers, then the Patriots become 54 percent favorites. If the Chargers commit no more than one turnover, their chances rise to 70 percent.

Dolphins D unable to clamp tight ends

September, 30, 2010
9/30/10
3:50
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The Miami Dolphins have a problem defending tight ends.

They struggled throughout 2009 to contain them, and they're off to a rougher start this season.

[+] Enlarge
Aaron Hernandez
AP Photo/Paul Spinelli The Dolphins face Patriots tight end Aaron Hernandez on Monday night. He's averaging 70.3 receiving yards per game.
Tight ends accumulated a nice stat line against Miami last year: 68 receptions for 993 yards and four touchdowns.

Through three games, even with the Buffalo Bills not throwing a single pass to their tight ends on opening day, that position is on pace to catch 69 passes for 1,099 yards and 11 touchdowns against the Dolphins.

That's an All-Pro campaign.

"We've got to do a little bit better job," Dolphins coach Tony Sparano said.

Next up are a pair of rookies who've already established themselves as dangerous targets.

The Dolphins will have difficult matchups Monday night with New England Patriots tight ends Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski.

Each is capable to doing damage.

Hernandez is more of a pure receiver, averaging 70.3 receiving yards per game. That ranks him fourth among all tight ends behind only Jermichael Finley, Antonio Gates and Dustin Keller and ahead of Dallas Clark.

Gronkowksi is the bigger red-zone threat. He has a pair of touchdowns, tying him for third in the league. On the Patriots, he has one fewer touchdown than Randy Moss and Wes Welker.

"They've done a very good job," Patriots quarterback Tom Brady said. "Both are very young in age. I think one of them is 20 (Hernandez) and one just turned 21 (Gronkowski). So for young players, it's pretty neat to find them playing such a great role on our offense.

"With each week, I think they are gaining a little more confidence in what they're doing through the experience that they're having, and we're relying on them every week to be playmakers for us."

The Patriots were one of the few teams who didn't get in on the tight end passing party last year.

As gaudy as the aforementioned 2009 tight end stats versus the Dolphins looked, the Patriots actually improved the averages. Benjamin Watson and Chris Baker combined for only five receptions and 55 yards in two games against Miami.

Tight ends tearing apart the Dolphins in the middle of the field -- think of Clark's seven-catch, 183-yard night -- were a major reason they made so many offseason defensive changes. The Dolphins fired coordinator Paul Pasqualoni. They released linebackers Akin Ayodele and Reggie Torbor and safety Gibril Wilson because they were responsible for so many big plays.

Keller exploited the Dolphins on Sunday night. He helped the Jets post a big road victory with six catches for 98 yards and two touchdowns in the first half. The Dolphins did shut him out after the intermission, but that wasn't soon enough.

Sparano knows he'll have problems again Monday night.

"It's difficult, no question about it," Sparano said of Hernandez and Gronkowski. "I think you can try a lot of ways, but with the Patriots you've got to kind of pick your poison a little bit. You can go out there and maybe try to double one of those guys, but then you could expose yourself with Randy or with Wes or with any of those people. You've got to be a little bit careful."
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