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The New England Patriots have played in five Super Bowls -- winning three -- since they drafted quarterback Tom Brady in the sixth round in 2000. They also have eight division titles in that span, and Brady and coach Bill Belichick recently became the winningest quarterback-coach combo in NFL history.

But all of that comes to an end when Brady retires.

Brady, who turns 35 in August, says he wants to play in New England until he's 40. That is great news for the Patriots, because they will struggle the second the future Hall of Famer hangs it up.

Things that have become foreign to New England the past dozen years will become routine again. New England will have down years and miss the playoffs -- just like everybody else. The Patriots won't survive various injuries -- just like everybody else. The Patriots also will run through a few quarterbacks -- just like everybody else.

On Wednesday, ESPN.com examined potentially dominant teams in 2015 . At that point, I think New England's easy run over the AFC East will be a thing of the past.

Here are four reasons New England will struggle in the post-Brady era:

No. 1: Patriots won't immediately find Brady's replacement.

Brady's story is once in a generation. He's a former sixth-round pick who slipped through the cracks to become one of the top five quarterbacks of all time. Brady had the drive and “it" factor to become the greatest player in franchise history. Brady often is compared to Joe Montana, because they share a similar story about 20 years apart.

The chances of New England finding another Brady anytime soon are slim.

Patriots fans will scream that Ryan Mallett is a future franchise quarterback. But how does anyone really know, considering the 2011 third-round pick hasn't thrown an NFL pass?

What about Brian Hoyer? The undrafted quarterback has shown small flashes but certainly not enough to warrant Pro Bowl status. The drop-off going from Brady to 99 percent of other quarterbacks will be steep.

Even if Mallett or Hoyer turns out to be a viable starting quarterback, neither will be nearly as good as Brady. Is Mallett or Hoyer a future Hall of Famer? Probably not. Will either quarterback perennially make the Pro Bowl? Not likely.

New England has been able to overcome poor defense, injuries and at times average receivers to still be competitive. Brady was great enough to carry the Patriots through various weaknesses. That no longer will be a luxury in New England. It will be much harder to get everything right with other areas of the team, especially if the quarterback position is in flux.

No. 2: The offense is old.

Brady is turning 35 in August. No. 1 receiver Wes Welker is 31. Starting receiver Brandon Lloyd is 30. Longtime left tackle Matt Light just retired this offseason. Guard Brian Waters might follow, if not this year, then soon after.

When Brady is gone, it's likely all these important offensive pieces will be gone as well. A Patriots offense without Brady, Welker, Lloyd, Light, Waters, etc., means New England is virtually starting over in a few years.

The Patriots still have a couple of young stars in tight ends Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez. But consider this: One tight end probably will bolt in free agency. Both Gronkowski and Hernandez -- two of the top five players at their position -- have rookie contracts set to expire in two years. Both will be looking for huge paydays, and New England can't do that with two players at the same position.

New England most likely will throw the money truck at Gronkowski, perhaps making him the highest-paid tight end, and let Hernandez walk. Brady also will be 37 and possibly retired or on his last legs by the time both tight ends will look for extensions. Returning to New England's offense long term won't be as attractive two years from now for a pending free agent such as Hernandez.

No. 3: Sun is setting on Belichick.

Belichick just turned 60 years old. How much longer will he coach the Patriots?

He has coached in the NFL in some capacity for 37 years. He is approaching his fourth decade in the league.

Even head coaches have a shelf life. Belichick currently is the NFL's fourth-oldest head coach behind Tom Coughlin (65) of the New York Giants, Romeo Crennel (64) of the Kansas City Chiefs and, by a few months, Chan Gailey (60) of the Buffalo Bills. Perhaps we are also witnessing the last few years of Belichick roaming the sidelines.

A good debate topic in New England would be who contributed more to the Patriots' dynasty the past dozen years: Brady or Belichick? Both are Hall of Famers. But in my opinion, Brady's development and dominance at quarterback are stronger factors in New England's success. Belichick would not have won all those games, division titles and championships in New England with shoddy quarterback play. Brady remained dominant and kept the team afloat, even when Belichick struggled coaching the defense, which is Belichick's specialty.

No. 4: The rest of the AFC East will catch up.

I often call the AFC East the "Brady and Belichick division." They're the great equalizers who keep the Patriots on top.

But without Brady in a few years, and perhaps Belichick, all four teams are back to an even playing field. Who will be the top quarterback in the AFC East when Brady retires? Ryan Tannehill? Mark Sanchez? Tim Tebow? Someone else?

Maybe all four teams will have average quarterback play. That means the Patriots, New York Jets, Bills and Miami Dolphins must rely on other areas to be successful and win the division.

Can the Patriots rely on their defense to lead the way? Not right now. Not even close. New England is in no position to overcome poor quarterback play, and that probably won't change overnight.

I expect Brady to play at least two more years (2012 and 2013) at an elite level. He might opt to play beyond that. But after age 37, there's no guarantee Brady can continue to take the physical pounding and play at the high level to which we have become accustomed. We've already seen nagging injuries bother Brady more than ever over the past couple of seasons.

Brady is a special talent the organization probably will never see again. So enjoy the success now, Patriots fans. New England will come back to earth and be an ordinary team again in three to five years.

Buffalo Bills

Bills general manager Buddy Nix assured Ryan Fitzpatrick that he would be the team's starter ahead of the signing of Vince Young, the quarterback told SiriusXM NFL Radio on Wednesday.

Fourth-round draft selection Nigel Bradham relishes his role on special teams.

Miami Dolphins

Ovie Mughelli, a two-time Pro Bowl fullback who was a salary-cap casualty in Atlanta this offseason, is in South Florida for a Thursday workout with the Dolphins. It might be a signal, Brian Biggane writes, that the team is worried about Jerome Messam, who underwent his second knee surgery in five months this week.

Former Dolphins running back Ricky Williams shared his views on concussions with ESPN's Dan Le Batard.

New England Patriots

The Patriots signed receiver Jeremy Ebert, their seventh-round draft pick from Northwestern.

According to a Forbes report, Bill Belichick is the highest-paid coach in sports.

New York Jets

Darrelle Revis led a chorus of Jets praising new addition Tim Tebow, the New York Daily News reports. "He's a born leader," Revis said. "... It's the passion within ... of him wanting to be a leader, wanting to win. You see it in him all the time... eating lunch. Walking down the hallway you see it. He's just one of those guys."

Offensive tackle Wayne Hunter, coming off a tough 2011, received praise from new offensive line coach Dave DeGuglielmo. "This guy is the starting right tackle," DeGuglielmo told ESPNNewYork.com. "Until they tell me otherwise, until they ship him out of this building or until they shoot me dead in my office, that sonofagun is going to be the starting right tackle."

The AFC East blog continues its series ranking the top players and coaches. On Sunday, we take a look at the top head coaches in the division.

No. 1: Bill Belichick, New England Patriots

Skinny: There is really no debate. Not only is Belichick the best coach in the AFC East, he's one of the best of all time. Belichick has three Super Bowl rings as a head coach. He's also been to two other Super Bowls, but came up just short against the New York Giants. His ability to game plan and also adapt on the fly is unmatched in the NFL.

No. 2: Rex Ryan, New York Jets

Skinny: Some are put off by Ryan's brash personality, but there is no denying he can coach. Few people know defense as well as Ryan, who grew up in a football family that focused on stopping offenses. Ryan's schemes have worked at every stop, including Baltimore and New York, and players love playing for Ryan. His first two years he led the Jets to back-to-back AFC title games. That is impressive.

No. 3: Chan Gailey, Buffalo Bills

Skinny: Despite his vast experience in the NFL and college, Gailey remains a bit of a mystery. He had two decent years in Dallas, but was abruptly fired. He got his second chance in Buffalo, but is just 10-22 his first two seasons with the Bills. A case can be made that Gailey hasn't had much to work with in Buffalo. That's fair. But the Bills have done a lot to improve the roster this offseason, and I think we will find out how good Gailey is as a head coach in 2012.

No. 4: Joe Philbin, Miami Dolphins

Skinny: Philbin is another mystery, because this is his first year as a head coach. But I've been impressed with his presence and organization so far. The job doesn't seem too big for the longtime assistant. But the key for Philbin is whether can he jump-start Miami's offense. Philbin is installing a new West Coast scheme, and much of his job in the first year will be graded on how well he manages that side of the football.

Let's see what's in the weekend mailbag.

Akhilesh from Massachusetts writes: Why do you think the Patriots drafted Tavon Wilson, a low-ranked safety, in the second round? Is it just that Bill Belichick knows something others don't or was it poor drafting?

James Walker: Wilson was a player Belichick really liked -- apparently more than anyone else. Drafting Wilson that high is certainly a risk. The Patriots might have been able to wait another round or two. This puts some pressure on Wilson to perform. If he turns out to be a solid starter, no one will care where he was drafted.

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Jorge Garcia from Mexico City writes: Which Patriots veteran do you see being released when all the final roster cuts are in?

Walker: You have to look at the deep group at receivers. There's no way the Patriots will keep all 11. I think players like Chad Ochocinco, Anthony Gonzalez, Donte' Stallworth and Julian Edelman will all have to fight hard for roster spots.

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Jim from Toms River, N.J., writes: What's the possibility Donald Driver lands in Miami and what would that mean for the Dolphins?

Walker: If Driver is cut by the Green Bay Packers, which looks like a possibility, Miami will be high on his radar. For one, a starting job is waiting for Driver in Miami, and that won't be the case in most places. Second, former Packers offensive coordinator Joe Philbin is now the head coach in Miami. There's a comfort level there. But none of this is possible unless Driver is released.

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Shaggy Lewis from Shreveport, La., writes: What are the chances Terrell Owens signs with Miami?

Walker: Zero. Miami is rebuilding and does not want players with character questions in its locker room. Owens would not be a good fit.

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Ben from Buffalo writes: It seems to me that the No. 2 receiver spot on the Bills is completely up for grabs. Given the lack of production from the guys they put out there last season, do you think T.J. Graham is the front-runner?

Walker: It’s too early to pick a front-runner. But Graham would make it very easy on the Bills if he was ready right away. That was the hope when the Bills drafted Graham in the third round. But that could be asking a lot. David Nelson is better in the slot, and if Graham and Donald Jones can step in, Buffalo's passing offense could be solid.

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John from Germany writes: If you were C.J. Spiller, would you be a little upset that you're not the starter? If you are, would you leave the Bills at the end of your rookie contract?

Walker: Spiller has a gripe. But the reality is that he's not a better running back than Fred Jackson at this stage of their careers. Spiller has three more seasons on his rookie contract. By then, Jackson most likely will be ready to step aside. So it's not a certainty that Spiller walks down the road.

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Chris from MA writes: I feel like I am beating my head against the wall. But could it make any more sense for the Jets to bring in Vernon Carey?

Walker: I'm surprised Carey hasn't gotten more interest. He's probably going to be one of those veterans who signs after there is a camp injury. The Jets won't sign him because they are pretty tight on salary-cap space.

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Ben from Baltimore writes: Do you think Mark Sanchez still has the potential, with the right weapons and players stepping up, to have a comeback year?

Walker: I didn't like what I saw from Sanchez last year. It was my first year in the AFC East, so that was the most I've watched him on a week-to-week basis. Sanchez is in his fourth season, and I don't think his ceiling is much higher than what we've seen. But that doesn't mean Sanchez isn’t capable of playing better, or being a better decision-maker, or lowering his fumble and interception totals. These are things the Jets hope he cleans up in 2012. I doubt Sanchez will ever become an elite quarterback, but if he can make those aforementioned improvements, the Jets can win with him.

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AFC East Homer of the Week

This week's homer is a BIG Chad Henne supporter.

Enjoy.

Rick from Miami writes: James, I don't think you are dumb but please look at the facts before you write something stupid. Henne had played the equivalent of two seasons and has improved each season. He carried a team with no run game or pass defense in 2010 to seven wins and would had more if he had any run support of the defense. Look at the stats. Miami was top 16 in passing ypg with Henne and dropped to 23rd with Matt Moore. That shows Miami only won six games because of their D and run game. Stop bad-mouthing players before you read he facts. Henne is better than Alex Smith, Mark Sanchez and a whole bunch of current starters. Maybe you should read the facts instead of going with idiotic public opinion. Dan Marino thinks Henne can start in this league. Do you know more than Marino about QBs? I think not. Henne will take the Jacksonville Jaguars to the playoffs before Miami wins six games in a season.

Walker: I'm always shocked by the number of Chad Henne supporters still out there in Miami. Henne had four years with the Dolphins to show what he could do and finished with more career interceptions (37) than touchdowns (31). In fact, Henne has never had a season in which he threw more touchdowns than interceptions. Henne was robotic, a below-average decision-maker and didn't have natural leadership ability. Four years is enough time to see that. But there's still a section of people, like Rick, who defend Henne and think he should have been the long-term solution in Miami. But, Rick, it’s the last statement that makes you our AFC East Homer of the Week. Henne will not lead the Jaguars to the playoffs this year. He might not even be the starter, because the team is invested in Blaine Gabbert. Congrats on being our Homer of the Week.

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Here are the most interesting stories Friday morning in the AFC East:

• New York Jets cornerback Darrelle Revis says he is "cool" with his current contract.

Morning take: Revis is scheduled to make $13.5 million over the next two years, which is a bargain for the best corner in football. The Jets don’t have the cap room to pay Revis market value unless they slice some salaries. For now, Revis isn't making it an issue.

• The New England Patriots named Matt Patricia their new defensive coordinator.

Morning take: Head coach Bill Belichick felt he needed to make a change after last year’s horrific performance on defense. Patricia coached linebackers and safeties in the past and now will try to do a good job with the whole unit.

• Former Buffalo Bills starting cornerback Drayton Florence signed with the Denver Broncos.

Morning take: Corners with starting experience don’t last long on the market. So it's no surprise Florence found a job quickly. He joins Peyton Manning and Co. and will contend in the AFC.

• The Miami Dolphins receiver Clyde Gates wants fans to believe in Miami.

Morning take: The Dolphins are working hard to overcome low expectations. Most will pick Miami to finish last in the division, and maybe that will motivate the Dolphins.

Last I checked, New York Jets head coach Rex Ryan recklessly predicted they would win the Super Bowl two years in a row.

Last I checked, the Jets’ offseason boasting was so overboard, they were dubbed the “OTA World Champions” by opponents.

Last I check, it was the Jets who did backflips and over-celebrated their last playoff win against the New England Patriots. Remember Bart Scott’s memorable “Can’t wait!” speech?

So why the sensitivity when Patriots head coach Bill Belichick ripped New York’s stout defense after last season’s 37-16 drubbing?

On Thursday Jets cornerback Darrelle Revis stood behind his “jerk” comment about Belichick, which stemmed from a private statement Belichick made to his son while walking off the field last November.

Belichick, according to the New York Post, said “Thirty-seven points on the best defense in the league … [expletive].”

We won’t repeat the three words Belichick said next, because this is a family-friendly blog. But it still resonates with Revis, who said Belichick’s comments were too personal. I say Revis and the Jets are too sensitive.

The Jets cannot be the kings of trash talk and not be able to take it, especially after suffering a 21-point beatdown. Even the usually reserved Patriots occasionally will have something to say. The Jets cannot get their feelings hurt when they are almost always the aggressors.

There is a fine line you don’t want to cross when mouthing off to an opponent. I agree with Revis in that regard. But the Jets (of all teams) are not the voice of reason on this topic.

If the Jets suddenly want to get sensitive about trash-talking, maybe they should look in the mirror and do some introspection.

Anything can happen in the NFL. There are surprises, injuries, etc. that can change the annual landscape.

However, let's be honest: Only the biggest AFC East homers would pick against the reigning AFC champion New England Patriots winning the division next year. The Patriots have by far the best quarterback, the best head coach, the easiest schedule in the NFL and were within a drive of winning the Super Bowl. Plus, New England was the only AFC East team with a winning record in 2011. The gap is just too wide.

With that said, that brings us to our latest poll question: Who should be the preseason favorite to finish in second place in the division?

Is it last year's second-place team: the New York Jets? They were 8-8 in 2011, which was a disappointment for this talented group. The Jets are a team built to win now and expect a bounce-back year. Is second place in their future?

What about the upstart Buffalo Bills? They had a great offseason that included additions like defensive ends Mario Williams and Mark Anderson and first-round cornerback Stephon Gilmore. The Bills are trying to make it a big year in Buffalo. Can they make the jump?

Finally, will the Miami Dolphins finish in second place? The Dolphins will try to be competitive under first-year head coach Joe Philbin and starting quarterback Matt Moore or David Garrard.

Using our SportsNation poll, vote on which AFC East team most likely will finish in second place. You can also share your thoughts in the comment section below.

Bill Belichick of the New England Patriots was the last person to coach future Hall of Fame linebacker Junior Seau. Belichick signed Seau at the tail end of his career and was Seau's coach for his final four seasons in the NFL.

Seau died Wednesday at the age of 43. Belichick released a statement on Seau Thursday:

"A day later, it is still hard to believe. Of all the players I have coached, nobody was more full of energy and vitality than Junior Seau. He respected and inspired every single person he came in contact with -- players, coaches and support staff. His defied the odds by playing two decades in the NFL at a level and with a youthful spirit rarely seen but appreciated by everyone. Junior will always be remembered as a intense Hall of Fame player from the old school. He was a charismatic icon. At the same time, as a human being he was as caring, warm and lovable as they come. That’s what I will miss most of all. It was a privilege to have coached Junior Seau. My condolences to his family."

Baltimore Ravens coach John Harbaugh brought up an old but sore topic Tuesday with the New England Patriots.

Harbaugh mentioned the Patriots' three championships have been "stained" due to Spygate. He later clarified in a statement that he was just repeating public perception. Harbaugh added that he believes New England earned its titles.

But the fact that Spygate still comes up with New England is proof that the Patriots must win another Super Bowl to fully erase the scandal.

It's unknown how much illegally taping an opponent's sideline helped the Patriots during their title runs. Maybe it was a little. Maybe it was a lot. But the overwhelming perception, right or wrong, is Spygate played a significant factor in New England's three Lombardi trophies.

New England has since gone to two Super Bowls in an effort to dispel that perception. One of those included a 16-0 regular season. There is no denying Bill Belichick is one of the greatest coaches ever and Tom Brady is an all-time great quarterback.

However, merely going to the Super Bowl is not enough for the Patriots in the post-Spygate era. They must win it all or the "stain" remains. New England has zero championships after the scandal, and that is brought up constantly when mentioning the Patriots' legacy.

It's ironic that this season's Super Bowl is in New Orleans -- home of the Saints and their recent bounty scandal.

The Patriots, who are favorites again in the AFC, have lived with their own scandal for several years and have a chance to fully move on from it by winning another title in the Superdome.

Perhaps no other AFC East pick in the 2012 draft was more controversial than the New England Patriots’ selection of little-known defensive back Tavon Wilson of Illinois. Wilson, New England’s second-round pick, was the 24th rated safety by Scouts Inc. and wasn’t even invited to the NFL combine.

This was viewed as a major reach by Patriots head coach Bill Belichick, who vehemently defended the pick. But looking deeper, Belichick's track record in the second round has been questionable for the past 10 drafts.

Here’s a look at Belichick’s picks in the second round since 2003:

2011: CB Ras-I Dowling and RB Shane Vereen
2010: LB Jermaine Cunningham, TE Rob Gronkowski, LB Brandon Spikes
2009: CB Darius Butler, S Pat Chung, DT Ron Brace, OT Sebastian Vollmer
2008: CB Terrence Wheatley
2006: WR Chad Jackson
2004: DE Marquise Hill
2003: S Eugene Wilson and WR Bethel Johnson

Of this group, Gronkowski and Vollmer are definite hits. Spikes and Chung have potential but need to prove they can stay healthy for a full season.

For the second round, two stud players in 14 picks (14.3 percent) is a low success rate. If you’re generous and include Chung and Spikes, that’s still only 28.5 percent.

Mike Reiss of ESPNBoston.com wrote a good column this weekend that Belichick should be trusted with the pick of Wilson. But history shows Belichick struggles in the second round, particularly with defensive backs. Butler and Wheatley were recent busts. Dowling didn't play last season and gets a chance to show what he can do this year.

Belichick may fool everyone with the Wilson pick. A player who was on no one’s radar could turn out to be a rookie contributor or starter in New England’s defense, which was ranked No. 31 last season.

But history suggests this could be another second-round whiff by Belichick. The pressure is on Wilson to change that trend.

» NFC draft analysis: East | West | North | South » AFC: East | West | North | South


The AFC East struggled mightily last year. Only the New England Patriots finished with a winning record. The New York Jets (8-8), Miami Dolphins (6-10) and Buffalo Bills (6-10) are all playing catch up this season.

The draft is the best way for the Jets, Dolphins and Bills to close the gap with the reigning AFC champs. It's also an opportunity for New England to get better, particularly on defense, in order to make another Super Bowl run.

Here are the highlights of the AFC East draft:

BEST MOVE

The best move was actually a series of moves by the Patriots. It was clear New England needed defensive help. The Patriots' defense was ranked 31st overall, and it was an issue on the final drive of the Super Bowl.

New England drafted six straight defensive players. Defensive end Chandler Jones and linebacker Dont'a Hightower, both first-rounder, have a chance to make an immediate impact. New England moved up twice in the first round to pick Jones and Hightower.

"I felt like we got good value for them," coach Bill Belichick said. "[We] took Dont'a and Chandler, probably could have been in either order. But we felt like we would have a better chance to end up with both players if it went that way, not that we were sure we would get the second one, but we thought we might have a shot at it. Looking forward to working with both guys."

New England also took pass-rushing defensive end Jake Bequette in the third round. He could be a sleeper. The Patriots made one curious pick on defense in the second round that we will get to later.

The Patriots did a good job overall, but an individual move I really like is Miami's pick of former Stanford offensive tackle Jonathan Martin. I had the chance to watch Stanford several times, and I was really impressed. He moves well, has a good frame and is intelligent.

"He's used to playing with a very demanding quarterback with Andrew (Luck), and they trusted him to protect Andrew for three years," Dolphins general manager Jeff Ireland said of Martin. "We're very happy with the pick."

Martin has to move from left tackle to right tackle, because Pro Bowler Jake Long is on Miami's roster. But that's an easier transition to make than going from right to left tackle.

The Buffalo Bills also made some solid picks, particularly first-round corner Stephon Gilmore and second-round offensive tackle Cordy Glenn. Buffalo had a safe draft that should help the team immediately next season.

RISKIEST MOVE

The New York Jets entered the offseason with a lot of questions. Can they fix their locker room issues? Can they handle the Tim Tebow phenomenon?

Instead of going safe, the Jets continued to roll the dice by taking risky prospects with their top two picks: defensive end Quinton Coples and receiver Stephen Hill. Both are boom-or-bust prospects the Jets plan to rely on next season.

New York needs help rushing the passer and hope Coples can provide it. He has all the physical tools, but there are big questions about his motivation. The Jets also need a big-play receiver, and Hill could be that player. He has all the measurables but wasn’t productive at Georgia Tech, which ran a triple-option offense. Hill caught just 28 passes last season but averaged an astounding 29.3 yards per reception.

"I feel great. Especially now, I'm in more of an offense where I can catch the ball a little bit more," Hill said. "And you know, catching the ball from [quarterback] Mark Sanchez is great. I'm going to make sure I get with him as soon as possible and we both try to get this roll on."

Both players have the potential to start as soon as next season.

MOST SURPRISING MOVE

Belichick has some explaining to do. The Patriots took a player in the second round who wasn’t invited to the NFL combine or any pre-draft all-star games.

Patriots second-round pick Tavon Wilson caught everyone completely by surprise. The defensive back wasn’t on anyone’s radar, especially in the second round. But New England liked him enough to take Wilson No. 48 overall.

"He played plenty. You can see him plenty at Illinois," Belichick said. "You can see him against whoever you want to see him against: All the Big Ten schools, Arizona State, teams that throw the ball. He’s playing corner, he’s playing safety, he’s playing the inside positions, the nickel position, the dime position."

Belichick is known to go off the radar in the draft at times. He continues to defend the Wilson pick.

"Similar situation with [Sebastian] Vollmer a couple of years ago. We drafted guys -- I think one year, didn't we draft like three of four guys that were non-combine guys?" Belichick said. "Some guys play in all-star games, some guys don't. I don't know who picks all those all-star teams. In all honesty, I don't know who picks the combine for that matter."

New England needs immediate help in the secondary. Wilson has experience in college at cornerback and safety and will get a chance to show what he can do in New England.

FILE IT AWAY

This is the perfect category for Miami first-round selection and rookie quarterback Ryan Tannehill. You can probably file this pick away until 2013.

Tannehill will begin the season third on Miami's depth chart behind incumbent starter Matt Moore and free-agent signing David Garrard. The odds that the rookie will jump two veteran quarterbacks before Week 1 are long. But Tannehill isn't resigning himself to holding a clipboard.

"I'm a football player and I'm a competitor," Tannehill said Saturday. "I want to be on the field and I want to compete. But I also realize that I'm coming in and there's veteran quarterbacks on this team that I can learn from."

The race for the No. 2 quarterback in the AFC East behind Tom Brady is wide open. Tannehill has the potential to fill that void in two or three years. But the Dolphins have to do the right things to nurture the young quarterback, despite very high expectations.

Tannehill is the first quarterback taken in the first round by Miami since Hall of Famer Dan Marino in 1983.

"I didn't take him as the eighth pick in the draft to be a backup quarterback," Ireland said. "I picked him to be a starting quarterback in this league at some point, to have an impact on this football team, to help us win football games and championships. That's the expectation that I have going down the line."

The scene at the AFC coaches' breakfast in Palm Beach, Fla., was fitting.

To my far left was New York Jets coach Rex Ryan. He was surrounded by a large group of media who wanted to know how the Jets would handle Tim Tebow-mania and whether they could bounce back from a disappointing 2011.

To my immediate left was new Miami Dolphins coach Joe Philbin. A throng of reporters wondered what the rookie head coach had in store for his first season.

On my right was future Hall of Fame coach Bill Belichick of the New England Patriots. He continually gave non-answers about his team as reporters tried to dig up something -- anything -- about the reigning AFC champions.

In the middle of this madness was Buffalo Bills coach Chan Gailey. His table was relatively empty for most of the hourlong breakfast, with the exception of a few passers-by and this AFC East blogger. Few in the national media cared to know what Gailey and the Bills were up to. They're a small-market team that finished 6-10 last season and hasn't been to the playoffs in 13 years.

But by this time next year, people will be talking about Buffalo. The Bills are my sleeper pick in 2012. Here are five reasons why Buffalo will get over the hump and finish with a winning record:

Reason No. 1: Bills made right moves in free agency

Analysis: I will give myself a pat on the back. I was one of the first to note Buffalo's interest in two-time Pro Bowl defensive end Mario Williams. Despite my prediction, I did not think Buffalo would be able to land the top defensive free agent on the market. But the Bills put on the full-court press and gave Williams 100 million reasons to join them. Buffalo gained an elite pass-rusher and its first game-changer on defense.

The Bills didn't stop there. They continued to improve their anemic pass-rush by signing former Patriots defensive end Mark Anderson, who recorded 10 sacks last season. Williams, Anderson and defensive tackles Kyle Williams and Marcell Dareus make up one of the top defensive lines in the NFL. It's a group who can stop the run and get push up the middle while attacking the edges and pressuring the quarterback. Buffalo's talented front four will be a problem for a lot of teams next season.

The Bills also retained their own key free agents. Buffalo re-signed No. 1 receiver Steve Johnson at an affordable rate and starting tight end Scott Chandler.

There are still a few more holes Buffalo would like to fill, but the team is one of the biggest winners in free agency.

Reason No. 2: Double trouble at running back

Analysis: When they are healthy, there may not be a more dynamic running back duo in the NFL than Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller. These two will be headaches for opposing defenses once Buffalo figures out how to blend both into the offense simultaneously. Jackson and Spiller could complement each other well.

Buffalo's coaching staff admittedly did a poor job of balancing the two tailbacks last season. Jackson received a bulk of the carries when healthy, and Spiller finally showed what he could do at the end of the season once Jackson was injured. Now, both are hungry and want the football. Gailey called it "a great problem to have."

Jackson is 31 and coming off a season-ending leg injury. That should open the door for Spiller to get more carries. Will it be a 50-50 split? Probably not. But the Buffalo offense will be dangerous if it can use Spiller and Jackson enough to keep each fresh and productive the entire season.

Reason No. 3: AFC East is weakening

Analysis: A case can be made that the AFC East became a weaker division this offseason. The division wasn't strong to begin with; only the Patriots finished with a winning record in 2011. But the 6-10 Dolphins gutted their roster, getting rid of top players such as Pro Bowl receiver Brandon Marshall and leading tackler and starting safety Yeremiah Bell. Miami also failed to land a franchise quarterback and settled on 34-year-old David Garrard as the potential starter next season. It's early, but it's hard to imagine Miami's finishing with a better record than last season.

Meanwhile, the Jets are an aging team with chemistry issues. New York gave embattled quarterback Mark Sanchez a three-year contract extension and then traded for popular backup Tebow, setting up a potentially explosive situation. The Jets will be on a year-long implosion watch, and their arrow could be trending downward after last season's mediocre 8-8 finish.

The Jets, Dolphins and Bills are all chasing the Patriots, who are clearly the favorites in the division. But the Bills, who split with New England last season, did a solid job to make up some ground.

Reason No. 4: Players are getting healthy

Analysis: I usually try to avoid the injury excuse, because every team has them, but it legitimately applies to the Bills. Buffalo suffered key injures last season at running back (Jackson), defensive tackle (Kyle Williams), linebacker (Shawne Merriman), offensive line (Eric Wood), receiver (Donald Jones) and kicker (Rian Lindell), just to name a few. Bills starting quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick played much of the season with a painful rib injury. By the second half of the season, the Bills didn't have anywhere near the same depth they had during their 4-1 start.

Most of these players are expected to be back and healthy in 2012. Merriman is perhaps the biggest question mark after his second season-ending Achilles injury. But chances are slim that Buffalo will be hit this hard with injuries again. Health will be key for Buffalo to maintain a successful run over 16 games.

Reason No. 5: Bills have a top-10 pick

Analysis: The Bills have had a productive offseason, but they aren't done yet. They still have a top-10 pick in this month's NFL draft. This is a great opportunity for Buffalo to plug more holes on the roster. The Bills could use a starting-caliber left tackle, another threat at receiver, a cover corner and depth at linebacker.

The Bills also have more than $9 million in cap room to spend. Don't rule out late signings in free agency. After years of not spending to the cap, Buffalo tabbed 2012 as the year to make a push.

All of these reasons make the Bills my ideal sleeper pick for next season. Don't forget that you heard it here first.

The New England Patriots will not have a shortage of wide receivers this season. In fact, the reigning AFC champs have overstocked the position so much that interesting cuts need to be made this summer.

Following a series of free-agent signings this offseason, here is a look at New England's wide receivers:

• Wes Welker
• Brandon Lloyd
• Deion Branch
• Julian Edelman
• Chad Ochocinco
• Donte' Stallworth
• Anthony Gonzalez
• Matthew Slater
• Tiquan Underwood
• Britt Davis

That is 10 receivers and not nearly enough roster spots to accommodate everyone. So who's in and who's out?

Training camp will decide a lot on the field. But for the sake of projection, let's take an early look at the upcoming roster battles.

I'm projecting New England carries six healthy receivers and probably four or five on game day, considering its frequent use of multiple tight-end sets. Welker and Lloyd are the only 100-percent locks out of the 10 receivers. That leaves four spots for eight players.

I think you can take Underwood and Davis out of the running. Underwood showed promise and even earned some playing time last season. But stuck among a group full of veterans, Underwood's best chance is to put some good plays on tape in the preseason and latch on with another team.

Slater is a Pro Bowler on special teams, and Edelman is extremely versatile. Patriots coach Bill Belichick values both qualities and probably doesn't want to give that up. Consider both receivers in.

By my projection, that leaves Branch, Ochocinco, Stallworth and Gonzalez battling for two roster spots. I think Branch is in for one more year due to his knowledge and leadership. The remaining trio is virtually a toss-up, perhaps with Ochocinco entering with a slight edge due to a one-year head start in New England.

Here is the AFC East blog's final prediction: Welker, Lloyd, Branch, Edelman, Slater and the Ochocinco-Stallworth-Gonzalez winner, which will be determined in training camp.

Agree or disagree? Predict who's in and who's out in New England in the comment section below.

Here are the most interesting stories Wednesday morning in the AFC East:

• Is Miami Dolphins linebacker Karlos Dansby elite?

Morning take: Dansby believes he's the best linebacker in the NFL. I wouldn't go that far, but he is very good. Miami needs another healthy and productive year out of Dansby in what should be a solid defense.

• Denver Broncos cornerback Champ Bailey says former teammate Tim Tebow will be a starting quarterback with the New York Jets at some point.

Morning take: Whether injury or performance, Tebow-mania will put a lot of pressure on quarterback Mark Sanchez. Maybe that's for the best. Sanchez hasn't been challenged by a backup his entire NFL career.

• Former Buffalo Bills receiver Roscoe Parrish signed a one-year contract with the San Diego Chargers.

Morning take: Parrish had some good moments in Buffalo, but he was too injured to sustain any success. Perhaps a change of scenery will help.

• New England Patriots receiver Chad Ochocinco looked good in an offseason workout.

Morning take: Patriots coach Bill Belichick wants to give Ochocinco one more chance in his system. He's had one of the most productive careers for a receiver in recent memory but never seemed to fit in New England.

PALM BEACH, Fla. -- It was approximately 7:30 a.m. Tuesday, and a grumpy Bill Belichick wanted no part of discussing the AFC East's newest addition: Jets quarterback Tim Tebow.

"I'm just concentrating on our team," the New England Patriots coach said bluntly.

Does Tebow impact what the Patriots do defensively?

"I'm just trying to get better in the offseason, like we always do," Belichick scoffed.

The media kept trying with Tebow, but Belichick kept swatting it away.

"I'm trying to get ready with what we're doing," Belichick said. "I'm not really worried about the other three [division] teams."

Belichick wasn't interested in Tebow-mania. But, eventually, will Belichick's Patriots have a problem on their hands? Does the rest of the AFC East have a problem, as well?

"I think the Wildcat is alive and well," an excited Jets head coach Rex Ryan said this week at the NFL owners meeting.

Here's how Tebow and the Wildcat matches up with the other three teams in the AFC East. The Tebow trouble meter is based on a 10-point scale, with a 10 meaning he'll be a huge headache for a team to defend:

Patriots

Analysis: Tebow had mixed results against the Patriots in two games last season. Tebow had a field day in the first meeting, particularly early. He rushed for 93 yards and two touchdowns, as the Patriots seemed caught off-guard by Denver's offense in the regular season. The Broncos led 16-7 at one point before the Patriots' offense took over and scored 27 unanswered points. New England won 41-23.

The second meeting against Tebow was more one-sided in favor of the Patriots. New England was much more prepared for Tebow's read-option offense. He rushed for just 13 yards on five carries (2.6 yard average). Tebow actually gained 14 yards rushing on one play, but his other four attempts lost yards. Tebow also lost a fumble and New England won easily, 45-10.

In two games against New England, Tebow rushed for 107 yards and two touchdowns. The Patriots have to prove that their postseason performance against the Broncos is more indicative of how they will stop Tebow in 2012, as opposed to the regular-season meeting.

Tebow trouble meter: 7

Buffalo Bills

Analysis: The Bills were the most prepared team against Tebow and the Broncos last season. Buffalo pummeled Tebow in Week 16 in a 40-14 victory. He threw three interceptions in the game and also lost a fumble. It was one of Tebow's worst performances of the year.

Bills head coach Chan Gailey believes his team was well-prepared for Tebow's read-option offense because the Bills have their own Wildcat package featuring versatile receiver/quarterback Brad Smith. Gailey is hopeful Buffalo's success against Tebow continues next season.

"We will get some work against the Wildcat-type offense in training camp, if nothing else," Gailey said. "To be honest, one of the reasons we have it is we think it is a definite advantage. What we say is this, 'If you got something that's unusual, the coaches are going to take an hour to sit down and talk about it, and you get on the field and do a 10-minute walkthrough on the Wildcat and in practice, out of 45 plays, teams will take maybe five of them on the Wildcat.'"

It also helps that the Bills invested a ton of money this offseason on their defensive line. Free-agent defensive ends Mario Williams and Mark Anderson should do a great job setting the edge against the Wildcat, which is key. Buffalo's defense has had other issues in the past, such as rushing the quarterback. But I don't see Tebow and the Wildcat giving the Bills too many problems based on the additions and what I saw last season.

Tebow trouble meter: 4

Miami Dolphins

Analysis: The Dolphins are an interesting case. They were the masters of the Wildcat under former head coach Tony Sparano. Now, Sparano is bringing the package to the Jets as their new offensive coordinator.

"I think it's hilarious," Jets coach Rex Ryan said. "With Tony, everybody looks at this rough, tough, bloody-your-nose type of guy, which he is. But he’s very creative also, one of the most creative guys I’ve been around. I’m excited with what he can do with a guy with the skill set that Tim has."

There are still players on the Dolphins, both on offense and defense, who know the formation well.

However, Miami will be as far removed from the Wildcat as possible under first-year head coach Joe Philbin. The Dolphins are implementing a classic West Coast offense based on timing, precision and rhythm. The Wildcat goes against all that. So there won't be much prep time against Tebow until the week leading up to the Jets games.

Miami did a good job for more than three quarters against Tebow last season at Sun Life Stadium. Denver was scoreless until the final 2 minutes, 44 seconds of the game and pulled off a miraculous comeback by scoring 18 unanswered points in the fourth quarter and overtime. That game actually jump-started Tebow-mania.

Miami is stout against the run. But Tebow rushed for 59 yards and averaged 6.6 yards per carry against Miami. The Dolphins need to do a better job of stopping Tebow in their two meetings next season.

Tebow trouble meter: 7

Overall, Tebow has a chance to make an impact in the AFC East. But his success will vary, depending on the matchup. Tebow won't be able to win many games by himself with limited snaps as New York's backup quarterback. It will be up to starter Mark Sanchez to do his part with the passing offense for the Jets to reach their offensive potential.