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DAVIE, Fla. -- Fifth-year quarterback Matt Moore was relaxed this week, cracking several jokes with the media. He didn't look like a player carrying the weight of an organization on his shoulders.

Moore appears unfazed by the fact that the winless Miami Dolphins (0-4) are turning to him at a crucial time. Head coach Tony Sparano is on the hot seat and must win immediately. General manager Jeff Ireland also is being criticized. And players are fighting for their jobs to prevent the team from cleaning house in 2012.

Moore's ability -- or inability -- to solidify Miami's quarterback situation will go a long way toward determining the fates of Sparano and Ireland. Moore will make his first start with Miami in place of injured quarterback Chad Henne (shoulder) on "Monday Night Football" against the New York Jets (2-3).

This will be Moore's 14th career start, after he spent time in and out of the Carolina Panthers' lineup. He is 7-6 as a starter and has thrown for 2,807 yards, 16 touchdowns and 18 interceptions.

"I've been in pretty much every situation you can be in as a quarterback in this league, from the No. 3 to starting and playing when I'm not expected to play," Moore said. "The situation here, yeah, I've been here before. It's unfortunate that Chad [Henne] had to go down. But that's why they got guys that need to step up and fill the role. Like I said, it's not the first time I've done it. There's some familiarity."

The most games Moore started in a season was five in 2009 and 2010. If things go well, Moore will quarterback Miami's final 12 games this season.

Players and coaches have described Moore as a "gamer." He's not the most gifted quarterback but finds ways to move the offense with his playmaking and mobility. Moore signed a two-year contract with the Dolphins this past offseason and can prove that he is not just a backup.

"He's somebody that I'm intrigued with," said Matt Williamson of Scouts Inc. "I don't think he will ever be a star. But he moves around a lot better than Henne; he's just not nearly as gifted a thrower. Moore is an average or slightly below-average passer. He doesn't muscle the ball down the field, but he's not bad there, either. He's a bit of an unknown, because he's never really had a chance. But I'm certainly not ready to dismiss him."

Moore often is a risk-taker, which has helped and hurt him at times. Jets head coach Rex Ryan recently described Moore as a "gunslinger."

"You can turn on the tape, and people can make their assumptions, labels," Moore quipped. "Have I thrown the ball downfield? Yeah. Gunslinger, or whatever you want to call it? I don't know. There's only one gunslinger if you ask me, and that's Brett Favre."

Here is the biggest irony of the situation: Moore was 1-4 as a starter last year in Carolina, and it helped the Panthers secure rookie sensation Cam Newton with the No. 1 overall draft pick. Could Moore struggle for a second straight year and help Miami land another highly touted quarterback in Stanford's Andrew Luck?

Many Dolphins fans are hoping that's the case. The "Suck for Luck" campaign is in full steam in Miami. The support is waning for this season's Dolphins, and many supporters already consider this a lost season.

Although it's too early to project next year's draft order, Miami is a prime candidate for a top-five pick based on its play in the first four games. Williamson believes Luck would fit in well with the Dolphins.

"By all accounts and from what I've seen of him, he's a very, very special player," Williamson said. "He's ahead of Sam Bradford, or Cam Newton or any of these recent first-round quarterbacks. He can turn any franchise around, and I think a lot of things are in place with the Dolphins. They have a left tackle, they have a center, they have a No. 1 receiver and they have a No. 1 running back now. They have a lot of pieces."

The thought of Luck being protected by Pro Bowl left tackle Jake Long, throwing to receivers Brandon Marshall, Davone Bess and Brian Hartline, and handing off to up-and-coming running back Daniel Thomas certainly is tantalizing. But for now, Dolphins fans get to see how Moore works with these skill players.

Consider Monday's game the "Desperation Bowl" for both teams. The Dolphins and Jets have combined for seven straight losses.

While the Dolphins are fighting for their jobs, the underachieving Jets are on the brink of imploding. Ryan put a lot of pressure on his team by predicting a Super Bowl victory at the beginning of the season. Now, New York's three-game losing streak has led to finger pointing and bickering in the locker room.

"Everything stinks when you lose," said Ryan, who is holding on to his Super Bowl guarantee. "The food tastes terrible, beer's warm, everything. It's rotten, when you lose, it's absolutely rotten. But there's one way to fix it, and that's to win, and when you win, everything is great. So that’s what we’re planning on doing."

The Dolphins enter Monday's game with plenty of confidence. Miami is 3-0 against the Jets at the Meadowlands the past three years. Ryan has never beaten the Dolphins at home and is just 1-3 overall against Miami.

Miami has become an NFL punch line this season and remains one of just three teams without a win. But Moore and the Dolphins can change some of their national perception with a good showing before a national audience.

"That's the best thing about this league: Every week you can wipe out the week before and move on and kind of get a snowball effect going," Bess said. "We know how hard it is to win in this league. But if we start winning, it can become contagious."

The Dolphins still believe there is hope for them in 2011. But the worst-case scenario isn't bad, either.

If Moore doesn't pan out for the Dolphins, they still might be "in Luck."

ESPN draft analyst Mel Kiper explains why Ohio State quarterback Terrelle Pryor will be hurt by not going through the usual draft process of playing in the Senior Bowl, going to the combine and holding pro days.

Kiper says Pryor will be no better than a third- or fourth-round draft choice in the supplemental draft. Kiper calls Pryor's athletic ability "top notch," but adds he "throws some bad balls, makes some bad reads, some bad decisions. ... The pure passing skills you need are not there yet."

A couple days ago, we took a gander at whether an AFC East club would be interested in grabbing besieged Ohio State quarterback Terrelle Pryor in the supplemental draft.

Chances would be slim anybody would want him at quarterback.

But ESPN analyst Todd McShay offered another perspective: What about as a wide receiver?

McShay isn't convinced Pryor could develop NFL-level passing accuracy or interpretive skills despite tremendous speed and elusiveness. We saw how far that combination took Pat White.

But Pryor is 6-foot-6 and 233 pounds and is athletic enough to become a decent target.

McShay wrote for ESPN Insider:

Because of his size, I still think Pryor is a better prospect at wide receiver than quarterback at this point, and he would have been the No. 8 quarterback on my board -- behind Blaine Gabbert, Cam Newton, Jake Locker, Andy Dalton, Christian Ponder, Ryan Mallett and Colin Kaepernick -- had he chosen to enter the 2011 draft.

Pryor carried a third-round grade following last season (and remains in that area now) based mostly on his potential to move to receiver if he does not make significant progress as a quarterback early in his NFL career, and the odds are stacked heavily against him doing so.

As a couple readers mentioned, maybe Pryor could evolve into the type of player Brad Smith was for the New York Jets, a versatile player who can take snaps out of a pistol formation, return kicks or line up at receiver.

ESPN analyst Tedy Bruschi discussed the importance of informal lockout practices for getting rookie quarterbacks ready to play in 2011.

Bruschi said New England Patriots rookie Ryan Mallett is in the best situation because he won't need to be ready to play on opening day and has time to learn the system from Tom Brady and head coach Bill Belichick.

"Mallett is going to have the best chance to succeed because he is going to get to sit, he's going to get to watch and he is going to get to learn," Bruschi said. "He's not going to have a lot of pressure on him. So he will just develop slowly, which I believe is what every quarterback should have."

"SportsCenter" host Linda Cohn compared Mallett's situation to that of Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Matt Cassel, a seventh-round draft choice who watched for three years in New England before starting one season and striking it rich.

"You can’t underestimate the value of these young quarterbacks, to be able to sit there and look at a professional like a Peyton Manning or a Tom Brady, to see how they approach their craft," Bruschi said. "They learn. They process it all up here. And when their chance comes, that's when they can cash it all in."

At some point, the unlikely collection of NFL teammates struck somebody as unusual, and they began to sort out who the highest draft pick was.

Together last month for a mini passing camp near quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick's home in Arizona, eight Buffalo Bills players laughed about their long-shot backgrounds.

Sophomore receiver Marcus Easley was the closest thing to a bonus baby, and he was a fourth-round draft choice with zero NFL games. So who was next in line? Backup quarterback Levi Brown was the answer, a seventh-round pick last year, 209th overall, and unable to make the roster out of training camp.

Wide receiver Steve Johnson went 224th, Fitzpatrick 250th. Running back Fred Jackson and receivers David Nelson, Donald Jones and Naaman Roosevelt weren't drafted at all.

"This is testament of who we are as a group," Nelson said Tuesday night from his home in Dallas. "We all believe in each other. We all push each other. We all compete with each other. We know we're against the odds. We're a bunch of guys nobody gave a chance to."

The Bills have a couple of first-rounders in their offense who didn't attend the workouts. Running back C.J. Spiller and receiver Lee Evans are important components, but it's impressive to consider such a big contingent of overlooked players making up a team's offensive core.

Nelson and the rest of that gang can speak with a little more conviction about their futures in Buffalo now. When they gathered for some casual workouts, there was plenty of doubt about the direction of the offense.

The draft hadn't taken place yet, and the Bills owned the third and 34th selections. There was considerable talk about a quarterback being a serious option. If Auburn star Cam Newton still were on the board, could the Bills pass him up? Missouri quarterback Blaine Gabbert might have been a possibility, and it was anybody's guess who would still be on the board in the second round.

"I'm sure Fitz was bracing for something," Jackson said Tuesday of the pre-draft mood. "Everybody had to be."

One thing was for sure among the Bills' players: They were rooting for the front office to stand pat at quarterback.

"We've been talking about it as a receiver group for a while," Nelson said. "We were hoping that they would stay away from quarterbacks in the draft because we have all the confidence in the world in Fitz and what he can do. We like the direction we're headed in with him."

The Bills gave their offensive players a major vote of confidence last month. Of their nine draft choices, only two play offense. They drafted Clemson tackle Chris Hairston in the fourth round and North Carolina running back Johnny White in the fifth round.

The Bills will acquire more offensive players whenever free agency dawns. General manager Buddy Nix has said they will sign another quarterback, but the club sent a strong message about Fitzpatrick's standing when they didn't draft one.

"They showed they have a lot of faith in Fitz," Jackson said. "Me and my teammates all have a lot of faith in him, too. We're excited about that. I'm looking forward to working with him and trying to build on what we did last year and making that playoff push."

Fitzpatrick and Jackson will enter the 2011 season with substantially more juice than they had last summer. Both of them were considered backups.

"You have to say that it had some kind of affect on us," Jackson said. "We weren't on the same page when we got in the lineup, but that's part of the game, and we have to adjust.

"It does hurt to not get the reps, but as long as you mentally prepare like you are the No. 1 guy, you can hit the ground running. Hopefully, now we can get those reps and go into this season as the No. 1 guys and put this team on our shoulders and make some plays."

Fitzpatrick won over the Bills' locker room and much of their fan base last year. Trent Edwards' presence had worn thin everywhere. The man known as "Captain Checkdown" was uninspiring at best. He was frequently injured and rarely showed a hint of nerve.

New coach Chan Gailey backed him in the beginning. Edwards took most of the offseason reps and was named the No. 1 quarterback when training camp opened. Edwards started all four preseason games.

Fitzpatrick, Brown and Brian Brohm fought over the scraps. Fitzpatrick attempted 23 passes before the season.

Asked at the NFL scouting combine in February whether he regretted those decisions, Gailey replied, "Shoot, yeah. If I knew then what I know now, I wouldn't have done that."

At 0-2, the Bills made an abrupt change. They waived Edwards.

Fitzpatrick was a jolt to the huddle, to the Ralph Wilson Stadium crowd, to the community. He grew a bird's-nest beard and called himself the "Amish Rifle." He wore his wedding ring during games. He actually threw the ball downfield.

He made the games entertaining again, even the defeats. Fans forgave him for occasional reckless interceptions.

Jackson was in a similar situation despite rushing for more than 1,000 yards the previous season.

He was in a crowded backfield with Marshawn Lynch and hotshot rookie Spiller and didn't start the first four games, carrying the ball 20 times for 87 yards through the first quarter of the season.

When the Bills traded Lynch for a 2011 fourth-round draft choice and a conditional 2012 sixth-round pick, the door opened for Jackson again.

"Right now, I feel like I'm the No. 1 guy and C.J. will come in and get a lot of plays," Jackson said. "I feel like I'm going to be the guy that's carrying the load and has got to make that running game go.

"I'm sure C.J.'s working hard and will [have] the opportunities as well, but I just got to shoulder the load and take the pressure off Fitz and make us a balanced offense. I want to be that guy."

Spiller generated preseason buzz for rookie of the year honors, but he had a disappointing campaign (283 rushing yards and no touchdowns, 157 receiving yards and one touchdown) and still has much to prove.

Jackson rushed for 614 yards in the second half of the season, tying with Ray Rice for sixth in the NFL in that span. The running backs ahead of them were Arian Foster, Jamaal Charles, Maurice Jones-Drew, Chris Johnson and BenJarvus Green-Ellis. Nice company.

The Bills ranked 25th in total offense, 18th in run offense and 24th in pass offense. Not too swift compared to the rest of the NFL.

But all of their best offensive superlatives in 15 categories (points, first downs, yards, etc.) happened Oct. 24 or later. The same can be said about individual player superlatives, aside from Fitzpatrick's 71.4 completion percentage in Week 3 against the New England Patriots.

The Bills obviously found enough there to make a commitment, and the players aren't crying for help. They're thrilled the group will stay together.

"We did some good things on offense last year," Jackson said. "We feel like if we could get back on the field healthy and get another crack at this thing, we'll continue to have some success."

For six weeks leading into the draft, I compiled your votes for an AFC East reader mock that would be measured against ESPN experts Mel Kiper and Todd McShay.

We got crushed.

Mightily.

AFC East readers correctly predicted only three selections: Auburn quarterback Cam Newton first to the Carolina Panthers, Louisiana State cornerback Patrick Peterson fifth to the Arizona Cardinals and USC tackle Tyron Smith ninth to the Dallas Cowboys.

That's right. Shut out in the division.

Kiper delivered nine picks in the correct slots, although three of them went to wrong teams because of trades. McShay got eight slots right with two going to the wrong team.

Therefore, Kiper and McShay each had six bull's-eyes.

Procedural circumstances hurt the AFC East reader mock draft a little. We started back in March, choosing a player every weekday until we were done. Once a selection was made, it was locked in.

Kiper and McShay, meanwhile, had the ability to constantly tweak. At one point, each predicted Alabama running back Mark Ingram to the Miami Dolphins at No. 15 -- just like readers of the AFC East blog. But Kiper and McShay eventually switched to the winning pick, Florida center Mike Pouncey.

But the competition was so one-sided, I doubt tweaking would've helped much.

I came up with this scoring system to give credit for picks that were close and to account for trades:

• 5 points: bull's-eye (player and team)
• 4 points: player to right team/different slot or player in right slot/different team
• 3 points: player taken within one slot of projected pick
• 2 points: player taken within two slots of projected pick
• 1 point: player taken within three slots of projected pick

That gave the AFC East blog 26 points with three bull's-eyes, two players within a slot, two players within two slots and one player within three slots.

Of the 24 remaining guesses, six of them weren't taken in the first round at all. The good news is that Kiper and McShay also whiffed on four of the same ones: Clemson defensive end Da'Quan Bowers, Arizona defensive end Brooks Reed, UCLA outside linebacker Akeem Ayers and Texas cornerback Aaron Williams.

Kiper racked up 48 points, powered by having the first six picks slotted correctly.

McShay accumulated 50 points with my system. He couldn't match Kiper's hot start, but caught him in the second half. McShay nailed the Cameron Heyward to the Pittsburgh Steelers with the 31st pick.

When considering the worst miss, AFC East blog readers had Florida State quarterback Christian Ponder going to the Buffalo Bills at No. 34 (we allowed two bonus predictions because AFC East teams had the first two picks of the second round). Ponder went 12th to the Minnesota Vikings. The 22-spot differential was the largest of any player in the three mocks.

Readers also failed to include Washington quarterback Jake Locker in the first round, and he went eighth overall to the Tennessee Titans.

» NFC draft analysis: East | West | North | South » AFC: East | West | North | South

The 2011 draft was short on sensationalism for the AFC East.

Even the sexiest pick was easy to rationalize. The New England Patriots took Arkansas quarterback Ryan Mallett, but the decision didn't seem out of whack in the third round.

Clubs went by the book. They bolstered need positions, concentrating on the trenches early. Very few red flags were raised.

But that doesn't mean the draft was dull.

Here are some draft highlights from the AFC East:

BEST MOVE

The AFC East's best decision of the draft was for the worst team to not get cute.

The Buffalo Bills didn't have to think when they filled out their draft card and sent it up to the commissioner. After the Denver Broncos selected Texas A&M outside linebacker Von Miller, the Bills rejected any thoughts about targeting a quarterback and pounced on Alabama defensive lineman Marcell Dareus, perhaps the safest pick in the entire draft.

Dareus immediately improves Buffalo's pitiful run defense and will help their anemic pass rush, too.

In fact, all four AFC East teams made prudent first-round decisions by reinforcing the lines.

The Miami Dolphins also eschewed quarterbacks, tabbing Florida center Mike Pouncey. The Patriots went with Colorado tackle Nate Solder. The New York Jets added Temple defensive end Muhammad Wilkerson.

RISKIEST MOVE

Had Mallett been taken in the first round or by a team that needed him to play right away, he would've gone down as the riskiest decision. But in the middle of the third round, no expectations to play and a solid infrastructure mitigate the hazards.

The Jets waited a long time between their first and next picks. When they were back on the clock at No. 94, they took Hampton defensive lineman Kenrick Ellis, a player the Jets rated as one of the top two nose tackles in this year's class.

But Ellis was suspended at South Carolina and kicked off the team, reportedly for drug use. Ellis also is facing felony assault charges -- he allegedly broke a man's jaw and nose last April on Hampton's campus. He's scheduled to stand trial in July and could be sentenced to up to 20 years in prison if found guilty.

MOST SURPRISING MOVE

Again, some people would say Mallett was a surprise. I didn't think so in the third round. That's the kind of value selection the Patriots are prone to make -- similar to Texas Christian offensive lineman Marcus Cannon, who tumbled into the fifth round after a recent cancer diagnosis.

The biggest surprise to me was New England's decision not to address its need for pass rush help with the 33rd overall pick. With Pittsburgh's Jabaal Sheard and Arizona's Brooks Reed on the board, Bill Belichick took Virginia cornerback Ras-I Dowling instead.

The Patriots then drafted running backs with back-to-back picks. They went into the draft with backfield needs. They were old last year and had only two backs -- BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Danny Woodhead -- under contract.

They drafted California's Shane Vereen in the second round and then Louisiana State's Stevan Ridley 17 picks later in the third round.

It's hard to imagine either Green-Ellis (the AFC East's only 1,000-yard rusher last year) or Woodhead (electrifying fan favorite) being on the outs. So how do the Patriots figure they'll use all these guys?

FILE IT AWAY

The two AFC East teams unsettled at quarterback didn't draft one. The Bills and Dolphins avoided that position.

Each of the two AFC East teams with clear-cut quarterback situations drafted another. The Patriots added Mallett, and the Jets took Alabama's Greg McElroy in the seventh round.

The Jets aren't starting a quarterback controversy. Mark Sanchez is the unquestioned starter, and veteran backup Mark Brunell has another year left on his contract.

But here's an interesting fact: McElroy wore No. 17 his first two college seasons. He switched to No. 12 because it was worn at Alabama by his father's hero, Joe Namath.

ORCHARD PARK, N.Y. -- Buffalo Bills general manager Buddy Nix said "there were some shockers" when it came to first-round quarterbacks.

Those surprises, however, didn't take Buffalo off the quarterback scent.

The chance to take Alabama defensive lineman Marcell Dareus with the third pick played a bigger role in their decision not to get a quarterback within the first two rounds.

"We didn't think Marcell would be there," Nix said Friday night, minutes after taking Texas cornerback Aaron Williams. "Now, the whole thing, leading up to it until the last day or two, we thought he'd be gone. But when [Auburn quarterback Cam] Newton was gone and [Dareus] was there, it was an easy pick."

Whispers around One Bills Drive were that the Bills would look hard at a quarterback at No. 3 or go with a defender there and then try to get a quarterback at No. 34.

The latter option became less likely when Washington quarterback Jake Locker went eighth to the Tennessee Titans, Missouri quarterback Blaine Gabbert went 10th to the Jacksonville Jaguars and Florida State quarterback Christian Ponder went 12th to the Minnesota Vikings.

It was the first time three quarterbacks went within the first 10 picks since 1999 and only the third time it ever happened in NFL history.

"We're to the point -- and I think I said this a lot of times -- with the first pick, we wanted a franchise guy," Nix said. "If he wasn't there, then we were going to get better on defense and work on needs if the right guy was there."

Nix conceded the Bills still have to address quarterback at some point. They have only two -- incumbent starter Ryan Fitzpatrick and sophomore project Levi Brown -- under contract.

"We are still going to go to camp with probably four quarterbacks," Nix said. "So that's not to say we won't take one in the draft, but it's also not to say we wouldn't go after a veteran to be a backup for us and then take another arm to camp. It might be a college free agent."

We'll find out what Ryan Mallett is all about.

No setting would have provided a truer test than New England, where the coach runs a tight operation and the quarterback provides the perfect template for a youngster to follow.

Team after team saw Mallett's name on the draft board and ignored it. Seventy-three picks were made, including four by the New England Patriots, before they finally added the quarterback many analysts called the most NFL-ready quarterback in this year's class.

"When I got that call," Mallett said, "it was a great feeling just to know that somebody wanted me."

Mallett's humiliation couldn't have cut as deeply as what Tom Brady felt 11 years ago, when the future Hall of Famer squirmed through five-plus rounds of rejection.

Memories of that day recently made Brady cry. The anger and bitterness and appreciation for his parents' support bubbled over during an interview for "The Brady 6," an ESPN documentary about the quarterbacks taken before him.

Perhaps "The Mallett 6" already is playing on a loop inside the rookie's head.

If not, you can imagine Brady whispering constant reminders in Mallett's ear about being driven to prove all the doubters wrong and to show the world he's better than Cam Newton and Jake Locker and Blaine Gabbert and Christian Ponder and Andy Dalton and Colin Kaepernick.

Mallett can do that in New England.

If he wants it badly enough.

"It's an opportunity for me to learn from him and further my knowledge under that coaching staff," Mallett said of Brady late Friday night. "It was something I'm really excited about when I got the call. I can't wait to get started."

When the Patriots make a selection such as this one, it's perceived as brilliant. Bill Belichick earned that presumption with three Super Bowl rings and a steady stream of AFC East championships.

Had the Oakland Raiders, Cincinnati Bengals or San Francisco 49ers drafted Mallett, we would be ridiculing them right now.

Mallett, in the eyes of most, would be dooooooomed to failure.

After all, Mallett clearly was more toxic than asbestos and ready to contaminate all he came into contact with. The passing skills he demonstrated in Arkansas' pro-style offense were undeniable. And although his mobility resembles that of a drowsy turtle, the damning issues were away from the field. Vague drug accusations hovered, and while still not detailed in public, teams apparently were convinced he wasn't worth the risk.

"Obviously, we're comfortable with him," Belichick said. "We took him."

Now AFC East opponents dread the prospect of Mallett emerging as a well-tutored prodigy with a cannon arm and a Dante Scarnecchia-coached offensive line to keep harassing defenders away.

But Mallett's real advantage in this scenario is Brady.

Mallett won't need to play right away -- not this year or next and probably not the year after that. He can learn from one of the supreme overachievers of NFL history.

That's the type of competitor Mallett will be exposed to in Foxborough. Every day, he'll get to observe, extract, probe and scrutinize the actions of a genuine winner.

"He's definitely a football guy," Belichick said of Mallett. "He is a great kid to talk to. He's very into football. You can't wear him out. If you want to talk about it, he'll be there. However many hours it is, he's ready to go watch the next film. He'll talk about a new technique or a route or a read, whatever.

"His father is a football coach. He's grown up in a football family, which I can definitely relate to that. Either you get sick of it or you marry into it and love it. It's one of the two. I think he's very much of a football person.

"He's a kid that's eager to learn and has a great thirst for knowledge for his position, which there's a lot going on there. He'll certainly get an opportunity to receive a lot of knowledge at that position around here."

On the surface, the payoff for New England seems minimal. Brady should have five more good years in him. He will turn 34 in September but is at the top of his game. He's the reigning MVP and a unanimous All-Pro selection, guiding the Patriots to a 14-2 record last season and posting phenomenal efficiency numbers.

Brady is signed through 2014. Mallett might flame out before then, but even if he doesn't, he could become a free agent before Brady is ready to yield the job.

What then?

If the Patriots' highly favorable atmospheric conditions allow Mallett to grow into a young star, the Patriots will have the ability to convert him into more future assets -- a groom-and-trade exercise similar to what they pulled off with Matt Cassel.

In the meantime, Mallett would provide backup services. Brady has gotten banged up over the past few years. An insurance policy is wise.

There's always a chance disaster will strike. Another season-ending injury could befall Brady. In between serenity and panic, a broken bone could sideline Brady for a couple of games.

Then Mallett would get his chance to show everybody what he's all about.

He might very well fall flat on his facemask. But it's much easier to picture him pulling it off in a Patriots jersey, isn't it?

ORCHARD PARK, N.Y. -- As expected, a famous quarterback was the first pick in Thursday night's NFL draft.

Then things got a little strange. Another quarterback didn't go off the board until No. 8, and it wasn't the prospect anybody expected. Then -- boom, boom -- two more went.

Four quarterbacks were off the board inside the first dozen picks, a third of the selections. Quarterbacks were a hot commodity.

Yet the two AFC East clubs that went into the draft with quarterback curiosity steered clear of the frenzy. The Buffalo Bills certainly did so by choice, the Miami Dolphins perhaps by circumstance.

Either way, they made safer plays.

Will they regret their decisions?

The NFL is driven by quarterbacks. Neither club has one. Neither club drafted a prospect Friday night.

The Bills had their chance to add any quarterback other than Auburn star Cam Newton with the third pick. The Bills could've snapped up Missouri's Blaine Gabbert, but took Alabama defensive lineman Marcell Dareus instead.

"I don't think there's any such thing as a safe pick," Bills general manager Buddy Nix said. "But I think [Dareus] is about as close as it gets."

Buffalo made the decision, knowing it still had the option of drafting a quarterback with the 34th selection Friday, but then the draft broke in such a way that made that scenario seem less likely -- for a bit.

Three more quarterbacks were gone in a hurry.

As expected, Gabbert was off the board, although he surprisingly slid to the Jacksonville Jaguars at No. 10. The Tennessee Titans plucked Washington quarterback Jake Locker with the eighth pick, and the Minnesota Vikings took Florida State quarterback Christian Ponder 12th.

When the Dolphins were on the clock with the 15th pick, the value of quarterbacks had skyrocketed. Yet despite their uneasiness in Chad Henne and minus a second-round draft choice, the Dolphins avoided any temptation of reaching.

Arkansas lightning rod Ryan Mallett was available. So was Texas Christian quarterback Andy Dalton.

Like the Bills, the Dolphins played it safe and addressed a need in the trenches. They filled a need on their interior offensive line with Florida center Mike Pouncey.

Henne certainly appreciated that selection. Not only did his protection get that much better, but he also avoided competing with a high draft choice in training camp.

Even so, the Dolphins might have the chance to add a veteran soon enough. The NFL can't delay free-agent signings or trades forever. Those kinds of transactions could be permissible as soon as this weekend, allowing the Dolphins to pursue Carson Palmer or Kyle Orton or Kevin Kolb or Vince Young or whomever.

Buffalo still has options if it wants a quarterback Friday.

Four quarterbacks inside the first 12 picks indicated a couple more might come off the board before the first round concluded, but none did.

Mallett and Dalton still are around. Buffalo could have a decision to make on at least one of them Friday.

Nix didn't sound like he was going to be in that hunt. Nix declared he could "get another starter" with the No. 34 pick. Ryan Fitzpatrick still would project as the leading man over any quarterback left.

So all the AFC East quarterback situations look the same now as they did 24 hours ago because the Bills and Dolphins played the percentages. Other teams gambled a bit and snagged quarterbacks they hope will lead them into the future.

Let the speculation begin.

It is possible to be safe and sorry.

ORCHARD PARK, N.Y. -- With the Buffalo Bills drafting first in the AFC East (again), I'll be reporting Thursday night from their facility.

Who do you think they'll select third overall?

Before blurting out your answer, take a look at this amusing research from the Buffalo Bills media relations crew.

They charted 160 mock drafts over the past year. Here are the guesses:

• 47 --Von Miller, Texas A&M outside linebacker
• 30 -- Marcell Dareus, Alabama defensive lineman
• 26 -- Cam Newton, Auburn quarterback
• 26 -- Blaine Gabbert, Missouri quarterback
• 8 -- Da'Quan Bowers, Clemson defensive end
• 7 -- Patrick Peterson, Louisiana State cornerback
• 5 -- Other
• 4 -- Nick Fairley, Auburn defensive tackle
• 2 -- Cameron Jordan, California defensive end
• 2 -- Ryan Mallett, Arkansas quarterback
• 2 -- Robert Quinn, North Carolina defensive end
• 1 -- A.J. Green, Georgia wide receiver

That's an awful lot of incorrect guesses and a good reason I don't do a mock draft.

U.S. Department of Labor analysts have confirmed Mel Kiper is the second-busiest man in the country this week and would have been first had the president not felt compelled to hold a weird news conference Wednesday.

Even with Kiper's heavy workload -- imagine how much care must go into crafting his final notes and hair the night before the draft -- he took the time to share his thoughts on our AFC East reader mock draft.

We verified our first round Wednesday with a long-form certification process: a six-week, pick-a-day reader vote.

Kiper's intrepid editor, Chris Sprow, caught up with him to go over the AFC East reader mock draft.

Here are Kiper's thoughts:

• It's hard to argue with any of the top three picks here. If the trade domino doesn't fall, no reason this couldn't happen.
• I'm going to stick with A.J. Green to the Bengals. Blaine Gabbert makes some sense, but if they still believe there's hope they can somehow hold onto Carson Palmer, they don't make that pick. But this could be one they are still undecided on, which is a theme this year.
• If Green isn't there for Cleveland, I don't expect them to pass on Julio Jones, which means I don't think he's still there at No. 10 for the Redskins.
• I like the pick of tackle Anthony Castonzo to Detroit because my gut says they know protecting Matthew Stafford is priority No. 1. I just think they might still see Tyron Smith there.
• Texans defensive coordinator Wade Phillips will love Robert Quinn if he's around with the 11th pick. If Quinn is not, Aldon Smith could go that high. His tape is phenomenal in spots.
• J.J. Watt and Cameron Jordan are perhaps the most interchangeable picks, so these picks don't seem off at all for the Patriots and Chargers. Could play out that way.
• I'm not as high on Derek Sherrod as some, but would love to be proven wrong. I just think he's there past Philly at No. 23. Slight reach for me.
• Danny Watkins is a definite possibility at No. 28, but I think New England can go in so many different directions because of how many picks they have.
• No Jake Locker? No Andy Dalton? I wouldn't count on it.

The last point lends itself to the nature of our project. We began six weeks ago, and quarterback buzz always ramps up as we draw closer to the draft.

Mock drafts also can't accurately factor trade scenarios, and those kinds of draft-day maneuvers will dictate where quarterbacks are drafted after Cam Newton and Gabbert.

It was nice of Kiper and Sprow to share some bonus analysis for us. Much thanks.

It won't be long until we find out how well we did.

With the NFL draft one day away, Scouts Inc. analysts Kevin Weidl and Steve Muench tap into the latest buzz.

They discuss the possibility quarterbacks come off the board with the first two picks. That would leave the Buffalo Bills with virtually no choice but to draft a defender at No. 3, but they'd get the best one in the entire draft class.

Also discussed is Florida center Mike Pouncey to the Miami Dolphins at No. 15 or to the New England Patriots at No. 17.

Mel Kiper's final Big Board was posted Wednesday afternoon at ESPN Insider, and Louisiana State cornerback Patrick Peterson remained in the top spot.

The Big Board slots the top 25 players in order of their value, not where Kiper projects they'll be drafted. Peterson commonly is going off the board around the seventh slot in mock drafts.

Kiper still rates Clemson defensive end Da'Quan Bowers sixth in this year's draft class despite concerns about his surgically repaired knee. Bowers could tumble into the second half of the first round because of it.

The only quarterbacks on the chart are Missouri's Blaine Gabbert at No. 14, Auburn's Cam Newton at No. 15 and Washington's Jake Locker in the final No. 25 slot.

Nine defensive linemen made the last Big Board.

There's a belief that if the Carolina Panthers don't select Auburn quarterback Cam Newton first overall Thursday night, then the Buffalo Bills will have the chance with the third pick.

ESPN reporter Sal Paolantonio gives the latest on what the Panthers are thinking after speaking with Panthers general manager Marty Hurney.