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The Buffalo Bills reportedly are "very interested" in former Alabama safety Mark Barron just one day before the NFL draft. Here are some additional thoughts on Buffalo potentially adding a safety at No. 10:

• As we mentioned earlier, this smells like a smokescreen. The timing is peculiar. Barron hasn't been linked to the Bills this entire offseason, but suddenly that's the case on draft week. Buffalo could be one of the teams looking to trade down, and this may be a case of drumming up interest in the pick. Teams like the Dallas Cowboys (No. 14) and the New York Jets (No. 16) are strong targets for Barron. The Bills would benefit if one of those teams or someone else wants to move up to No. 10 to grab Barron.
• On the flip side, Buffalo does have the tendency to draft the best available player. Remember C.J. Spiller? The Bills were fine at running back and took Spiller with the No. 9 overall pick in 2010. Spiller is still fighting starting running back Fred Jackson for playing time three seasons later. It's debatable whether Barron is a top-10 pick, but that may be the case on Buffalo's board.
• Speaking of top 10, safety usually is not a position taken that high. The last time it happened in Buffalo, it didn't work out well. The Bills drafted former Ohio State safety Donte Whitner at No. 8 in 2006. The move was considered a major reach for the Bills, which turned out to be true. Whitner wasn't a bad player. He just wasn't a dominant player and was criticized for it in Buffalo. That is the kind of pressure that comes when a safety is drafted in the top 10. It's expected that safety must be a special talent.
• Finally, I think it's a mistake for Buffalo to draft Barron. Yes, Barron is a great prospect and the best safety in this draft. But the Bills are fine with George Wilson and Jairus Byrd at safety next season. Barron would have to compete to take one of those jobs, and it's possible Barron wouldn't start right away as a rookie. The Bills have other needs at left tackle, receiver, corner and linebacker where a rookie is sure to make an immediate impact. There should be quality players available at those four positions that can better help the Bills.

It's hard to believe the 2011 regular season is over after this weekend. This will be our final post on X factors for the season.

Here are some under-the-radar players who could make an impact:

New England Patriots (12-3)

Opponent: Bills

X factor: RB Stevan Ridley

Analysis: It's amazing that the Patriots have gone on a seven-game winning streak this time of year without a consistent running game. Patriots quarterback and MVP candidate Tom Brady has been so good that New England continues to win in the winter months through the air, while many outdoor teams are forced to run. But that doesn't mean eventually New England doesn't want one of its many running backs to step up. That player might be rookie Ridley. He showed flashes all season and last week averaged 4.9 yards per carry. If Ridley gets it going, the Patriots' offense will be even more dangerous. Buffalo's defense is very susceptible to the run this season and the Bills could give up a lot of yards to New England on the ground.

Buffalo Bills (6-9)

Opponent: Patriots

X factor: S Jairus Byrd

Analysis: The Bills seem to play at their best when Byrd has a big game. Byrd made his share of mistakes this season, but he's perhaps the team's best defensive playmaker and is coming off one of his better games. Byrd recorded seven tackles and a pick six against the Denver Broncos and quarterback Tim Tebow. Both Buffalo safeties -- Byrd and George Wilson -- will get plenty of opportunities to make plays against Brady, who throws the football a lot. No one expects the Bills to pull off the season-ending upset at Gillette Stadium, but their best chance to do it is probably with big plays from Byrd and the secondary.

New York Jets (8-7)

Opponent: Dolphins

X factor: Offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer

Analysis: Schottenheimer needs to finish strong -- not only for the Jets' sake, but for his as well. There are already rumblings in New York that Schottenheimer is going into the offseason on the hot seat. New York has the 27th ranked offense, which is unacceptable for a team some thought was capable of making a Super Bowl run. Instead, the Jets most likely will miss the playoffs and the offense will get the blame. Last week's play-calling was a disaster. Schottenheimer called 59 passes in a loss to the New York Giants. Schottenhiemer needs to do much better against a solid Dolphins defense.

Miami Dolphins (5-10)

Opponent: Jets

X factor: WR Brian Hartline

Analysis: It's always about the No. 2 receiver when facing the Jets. Why? Because there's a good chance Darrelle Revis is going to be all over the opponent's best receiver. Revis versus Brandon Marshall will be a great matchup. Revis will make his share of plays and so will Marshall. But the key to winning for Miami depends on what the other receivers do against New York's corners. Hartline is coming off a solid game last week where he caught four passes for 72 yards. He will see a lot of Jets corner Antonio Cromartie, who has been inconsistent. If Hartline has a big game, there is a good chance Miami can finish the season with a victory.

PITTSFORD, N.Y. -- Buffalo Bills inside linebacker Nick Barnett knew bad news was coming this summer, and he still couldn’t fully accept it. Despite his eight seasons with Green Bay, the speculation was that the Packers had to trade or release him this offseason. Barnett had been placed on injured reserve in both the 2008 and 2010 seasons, and his heir apparent, Desmond Bishop, already was in place. It was a no-brainer move to most observers, even though Barnett was still thinking about the possibility of helping the Packers repeat as Super Bowl champions. “If you read my tweets,” he said, “that’s all I kept talking about.”

These days Barnett is talking about something different -- how he can help the Bills transform one of the league’s worst defenses into a sturdy, reliable unit. No team in the NFL was worse against the run in 2010 (Buffalo allowed 169.6 yards per game), and that was one key reason the team signed Barnett so quickly after the Packers released him in late July. At 30, he still has the quickness and playmaking ability that allowed him to amass 787 tackles, 15.5 sacks and nine interceptions during his Green Bay career. He’s also aware that his energy and leadership will be invaluable to a team that lost its top tackler, Paul Posluszny, in free agency.

Bills assistant head coach and linebackers coach Dave Wannstedt said Barnett already is the team’s best linebacker. Head coach Chan Gailey has raved about his new player’s approach. “He brings experience and speed to this defense,” Gailey said. “He’s a guy who always plays fast.” Added Barnett: “I’m just trying to be myself. I haven’t played since Week 4 [a dislocated wrist ended his season] so I’m still finding my way. But the biggest thing I wanted to bring to this team was an attitude. I want to help the younger guys relax and have fun out there because that’s what I do.”

Though Barnett needed some time to accept his release from the Packers -- “I’ve never been fired from anything before,” he said -- he quickly sensed that Buffalo was the right place for him. He liked the team atmosphere, the family environment and the die-hard fans who are the city’s trademark. In many ways, Barnett felt like he was going to a place quite similar to Green Bay. “The talent level is there,” Barnett said. “But like everything, it’s going to come down to communication and attitude. If we do those things, we’ll be productive.”

THREE HOT ISSUES

1. Will Ryan Fitzpatrick be better? Yes. Fitzpatrick was a decent quarterback in 2010 -- 3,000 yards, 23 touchdowns, 15 interceptions -- especially considering that he was basically thrown into the job after the Bills gave up on former starter Trent Edwards. Fitzpatrick also has far more advantages coming into this season, despite not having an entire offseason to work with coaches. The major areas that he needs to improve? Accuracy and consistency. What he doesn’t have to worry about any longer? Proving to his teammates that he can lead this team and knowing whether the job is his alone. “Last season was interesting, but my whole career has been about being ready to show what you can do when the opportunity comes,” said Fitzpatrick, who spent his first five NFL seasons as a backup before getting his shot as a full-time starter three games into 2010. “One of the good things we have as an offense is that we have a lot of guys who’ve spent an entire season playing together and getting familiar with each other. When you look at the offenses in New England and Indianapolis, that continuity is what makes them so successful, and now we’re one step closer to that.”

2. Can Shawne Merriman return to an elite level? As long as he’s healthy. Right now the three-time Pro Bowl outside linebacker thinks that the strained Achilles that limited him to only three games last season won’t be an issue. The bigger challenge for him is finding a comfort level after registering only four sacks over the past three seasons. The Bills are banking on his getting up to speed in a hurry. For a team that tied for 27^th in the NFL in sacks last season (with 27), having a rejuvenated Merriman harassing opposing quarterbacks would be a much-needed blessing. “I don’t feel like I need to respond to people who’ve been counting me out over the last couple years because all you have to do is watch me practice,” said Merriman, who had 43.5 sacks in his first 60 career games. “It’s definitely been hard [not playing] but I also feel like I’ve done everything I’ve needed to do to get back. I can see good things happening this season.”

3. What role will C.J. Spiller play in the offense? One of the more disappointing aspects of the Bills' offense in 2010 was the lack of productivity from Spiller. Drafted ninth overall in last year’s draft, he was supposed to bring breathtaking speed and elusiveness to the Bills. Instead, Spiller wound up with only 283 rushing yards and 24 receptions in his rookie season. Those numbers should increase now that Buffalo has a less crowded backfield (the team traded Marshawn Lynch to Seattle midway through last season) and a greater sense of urgency about involving Spiller. “We need to get him more touches,” Gailey said. “We need to find more ways to get him in space so he can use that speed. He’s already grown as a runner because he’s better at running inside, and he’s shown more patience. The one thing I’d really like to see him improve on now is ball security. He had some problems with fumbles last year [Spiller had five fumbles and lost three], and we can’t have that.”

WELCOME SIGHT

Roscoe Parrish: The Bills' offensive players know that Parrish has developed into a valuable receiver after being used mainly as a returner early in his career. They realize it even more now that he’s healthy. After missing the last eight games of 2010 with a broken wrist, Parrish has been impressing teammates with his trademark speed and quickness. The explosiveness he brings to the offense after sitting out half a year also hasn’t gone unnoticed. “Now that he’s back, you remember how much he means to this offense,” Fitzpatrick said. “He really adds another dimension.”

PLAYER TO WATCH

Brad Smith: Don’t be surprised if Smith becomes a more dangerous playmaker in the Bills’ offense. He made his name as a kick returner/wide receiver/Wildcat quarterback with the New York Jets, and rule changes should allow him to increase his playing time in Buffalo. The NFL agreed to abolish the rule requiring teams to determine a third quarterback on game-day rosters -- that player could participate only in emergency situations, and his presence would prevent the team from using any other quarterback during a game. Now a player like Smith can be used far more often in Wildcat situations. Even if Smith appears as a quarterback in three or four plays a game, his involvement won’t limit his coaches’ options. “We were going to use him in a similar role anyway, but that rule really helps,” said Gailey, who has gained a reputation for finding creative roles for versatile players. “Now you don’t have to wonder about whether he needs to be listed as a third quarterback who can only play in emergency situations or if he can be used as a Wildcat quarterback whenever we like. It’s going to make a big difference.”

OBSERVATION DECK

• [+] Enlarge
  Rick Stewart/Getty ImagesFirst round draft pick Marcell Dareus has impressed his coaches in training camp.
  Rookie defensive end Marcell Dareus hasn’t needed much time to make a strong impression on his coaches. Wannstedt called him a “special kid with the right approach to the game,” and Gailey thinks it shouldn’t take long for Dareus to prove why he was worthy of the third overall pick in this year’s draft. “He’s a big, physical guy and he’s got an edge to him,” Gailey said of Dareus, who's 6-3 and weighs 323. “You have to like that about him.”

• Even though the Bills lost their second-best tackler from last season -- strong safety Donte Whitner -- the loss may not be as troubling as it looks. Though he was a strong presence in run support, the team thinks strong safety George Wilson can help the Bills more in the playmaking department. When Whitner was injured two years ago, the tandem of Wilson and Jairus Byrd gave the secondary a bigger boost with their pass defense skills.

• The emphasis on stopping the run is going to put more pressure on the Bills cornerbacks this season. Gailey believes he has the personnel to handle the increased responsibility, and Terrence McGee is essential to this approach. He has spent more time covering slot receivers in training camp, which will allow Leodis McKelvin and Drayton Florence to handle outside receivers when the defense faces three-receiver looks.

• Wide receiver Donald Jones is another player worth watching. When asked about teammates who have caught his eye early in training camp, Fitzpatrick said Jones had elevated his game in his second season. An undrafted rookie in 2010, Jones was a nice surprise in camp and finished with 18 receptions. This year he’s using his size and strength to make himself a tough receiver to handle at the line of scrimmage.

• The Bills recognize that their biggest challenge this season will be learning how to change expectations. Gailey has talked about the difference between hoping to win and expecting to win, and his players believe they can make great strides. Fitzpatrick agreed that last season, too many players were worried about losing their jobs as the team transitioned into Gailey’s tenure. This year, there is far more comfort and a sense of purpose on a team that hasn’t made the playoffs since 1999. “We definitely need to take the approach that we deserve to win,” Fitzpatrick said. “And we have a chip on our shoulders. We hear all the people talking about how tough the AFC East is, and nobody mentions our name. That can be fuel for our fire, and we have to believe we can surprise people.”

Football Outsiders overlord Aaron Schatz busted out some research to illustrate the NFL's best tacklers against the pass.

And once again, New England Patriots inside linebacker Jerod Mayo looked strong.

Mayo led the NFL with 72 pass tackles, and his numbers look even more impressive when noticing he was one of only two non-cornerbacks in the top 12. Minnesota Vikings linebacker Chad Greenway was tied for 10th with 61 pass tackles.

For added context on Mayo's production, the differential drops precipitously when looking solely at linebackers. San Francisco 49ers star Patrick Willis ranked eighth but had 20 fewer tackles than Mayo.

No other AFC East cornerback or linebacker ranked in the top 10 at his position.

Buffalo Bills safety Donte Whitner ranked eighth among his peers with 43 pass tackles, with New England Patriots safety Brandon Meriweather one behind. Miami Dolphins safety Yeremiah Bell and Patriots safety Patrick Chung recorded 41 pass tackles, tying for 10th.

Schatz also broke down stop percentages on pass tackles. Football Outsiders defines a "stop" as preventing an opponent from gaining 45 percent of needed yards on first down, 60 percent on second down and 100 percent on third or fourth down.

New York Jets defensive back Drew Coleman made a stop on 36 percent of his pass tackles to rank 10th.

On the flip side, Bills sophomore Jairus Byrd had the worst stop rate among all NFL safeties. He made one stop on 37 pass tackles.

Mayo also scored remarkably well in a recent Football Outsiders report about broken tackles. Mayo allowed one ball carrier to break free while making 118 tackles, ranking second in efficiency among all defenders with at least 50 tackles.

ELMA, N.Y. -- Every offseason has been a new experience for Buffalo Bills safety Jairus Byrd.

He made the transition from Oregon to the NFL in 2009, grabbed a bunch of interceptions and made the Pro Bowl. Last summer, he had to learn a different defense, as the new coaching staff morphed from a Tampa 2-style 4-3 to a 3-4.

So when I asked Byrd how unusual this offseason has been because of the lockout, his facial expression asked in return, "What's usual?"

"You just take the hand you're dealt and you play with it," Byrd told me this week while changing out of his football spikes after a workout at the Sahlen's Sports Park in suburban Buffalo.

The weirdness of the lockout is affecting Byrd more than most. Because management isn't supposed to have any contact with players, Byrd's father, Chicago Bears defensive backfield assistant Gill Byrd, must keep a running log of all the times he speaks to Jairus.

"He has to report it and write down what we talked about and whatever," Jairus Byrd said with a laugh. "I don't have to jot anything down, though. To me, I just talk to him like I always have. That's his problem."

When it comes to normalcy, Jairus Byrd says he at least "feels normal" when it comes to his health. He has battled injuries throughout his first two NFL seasons and had three groin surgeries in a 13-month span.

But he said he has been able to train without limitations for a while.

"I have a big chip on my shoulder," Byrd said. "I'm not going to lie. That's every year. I have goals that I don't like to share, but I'm going to go out there and get them.

"A lot of people tell me what I can't do. I wasn't supposed to be here. I've carried that with me for a while, and it's grown like a fire. I'm just ready to go."

» NFC Draft Watch: East | West | North | South » AFC: East | West | North | South

Each Thursday leading up to the NFL draft (April 28-30), the ESPN.com NFL blog network will take a division-by-division look at key aspects of the draft. Today's topic: draft rewind -- examining the past five drafts.

Buffalo Bills

Best choice: Defensive lineman Kyle Williams. Only three players in the Bills' past five draft classes have gone to a Pro Bowl. Two of them, Williams and safety Jairus Byrd, still are on the team. Williams was a 2006 fifth-round pick who has emerged as one of the NFL's top interior pass-rushers.

Worst choice: Defensive end John McCargo. The Bills traded up to select McCargo 26th overall in 2006. He has started one game since then. He was a healthy scratch for 15 games last year. The Bills tried to deal him to the Indianapolis Colts in 2009, but he failed his physical and was sent back.

Bubble player: Left tackle Demetrius Bell. On the surface, a starting left tackle from the seventh round sounds like a steal. But when you consider the Bills have banked on Bell and avoided drafting other tackles early enough to compete with him for three years, then you'd expect Bell to be an obvious franchise player. He has been OK, but far from a clear-cut solution.

Miami Dolphins

Best choice: Left tackle Jake Long. There's not much to discuss here aside from wondering how the Dolphins would be different had they drafted Matt Ryan No. 1 in 2008 instead. But Long undoubtedly has been their best draft choice of the past five years. He's an elite blocker and protector. He has been chosen for three Pro Bowls in three seasons.

Worst choice: Quarterback Pat White. The most regrettable pick of the Bill Parcells-Jeff Ireland regime was White at 44th overall in 2009. Not even former general manager Randy Mueller's fateful 2007 draft -- two of 10 picks still on the roster -- had a dud like White, who was cut after one season and retired from baseball seven months later.

Bubble player: Defensive end Jared Odrick. Last year's first-round draft choice is in a tough spot. Odrick played one game because of a hairline leg fracture. While the rookie was out, the Dolphins' three-man defensive front was cemented. Right end Randy Starks went to the Pro Bowl, while some thought left end Kendall Langford had the better season. And don't expect Starks to return to nose tackle to make way for Odrick. The Dolphins placed their franchise tag on nose tackle Paul Soliai.

New England Patriots

Best choice: Inside linebacker Jerod Mayo. Since the Patriots drafted Mayo 10th in 2008, he has led them in tackles all three years, won The Associated Press Defensive Rookie of the Year Award, has been defensive captain the past two seasons, was named first-team All-Pro last year and went to the Pro Bowl.

Worst choice: Wide receiver Chad Jackson. The Patriots traded with the Green Bay Packers to move up 16 spots and select Jackson 36th overall in 2006. Who did the Packers get with the 52nd pick? Greg Jennings. Injuries and lack of commitment forced Jackson out of New England after two seasons and 13 catches.

Bubble player: Safety Brandon Meriweather. For the most part, Meriweather has been successful. The 24th pick in 2007 has been to a pair of Pro Bowls. But how they voted him a starter last year is a mystery. Bill Belichick removed him from the starting lineup for three games because of disappointing play. That plus Meriweather's presence at a recent multiple shooting in his hometown raises questions about which way his career is going.

New York Jets

Best choice: Cornerback Darrelle Revis. The Jets not only drafted him 14th in 2007, but also spent second- and fifth-round picks to move up 11 spots for the chance. He quickly established himself as an elite lockdown cornerback. As long as he stays healthy, he should remain in the conversation for defensive player of the year for a while.

Worst choice: Defensive end Vernon Gholston. He's one of the biggest busts in franchise history. The Jets used the sixth pick of the 2008 draft on a player they thought would terrorize quarterbacks. The Jets cut him after three seasons and zero sacks.

Bubble player: Running back Shonn Greene. The Jets traded up to make Greene, the reigning Doak Walker Award winner at the time, the first pick on the second day of the 2009 draft. Greene has been solid, but he has played a supporting role to Thomas Jones and then LaDainian Tomlinson. Will 2011 be the season he takes over the lead?

» NFC labor impact: East | West | North | South » AFC: East | West | North | South

A team-by-team look at how a continued labor impasse and extended NFL freeze on transactions would affect the division:

Buffalo Bills: The Bills are a young team that built momentum toward the end of last season. They went 4-4 in the second half. Over a six-game stretch in October and November, they went 2-4, and each loss was by three points to an eventual playoff team. Three of those losses were in overtime.

A prolonged work stoppage would stunt Buffalo's development. Coach Chan Gailey is entering his second year but his first offseason with Ryan Fitzpatrick as starting quarterback. The Bills also could draft a quarterback next month but they wouldn't be able to sign him or work with him until there's a new collective bargaining agreement.

Inexperienced players with one or two years dot the roster: running back C.J. Spiller, guards Eric Wood and Andy Levitre, nose tackle Torell Troup, outside linebackers Aaron Maybin and Arthur Moats and safety Jairus Byrd. They would benefit from as much prep time as they can get.

Miami Dolphins: The Dolphins' offense will have serious difficulty taking shape if there's a long work stoppage. Incumbent quarterback Chad Henne wouldn't be on the securest footing if we were heading into a normal offseason. The Dolphins were frustrated enough to remove him as their starter twice last year. Now he's working with a new offensive coordinator, Brian Daboll, and new quarterbacks coach, Karl Dorrell, who never has been a quarterbacks coach before.

Henne got a head start on his offseason by meeting with Daboll and Dorrell to try to absorb as much of the playbook as he could. Henne intends to communicate Daboll's philosophies to his teammates with informal workouts in South Florida.

That's where the Dolphins can have an advantage if they remain diligent. A large percentage of their players maintain homes in South Florida, making it easy for them to assemble for group sessions.

All of Henne's work could be rendered moot if the Dolphins want to acquire another quarterback, but then they'll have another problem. Until there's a new CBA, teams cannot sign free agents or make player trades. That means the Dolphins are in limbo if they want to make a play for an intriguing group of candidates that includes Kevin Kolb, Kyle Orton, Carson Palmer, Donovan McNabb and Vince Young.

New England Patriots: If any team can withstand a protracted work stoppage, it's the reigning AFC East champions. The Patriots have a solid roster filled with veterans, particularly on offense. Their coaching staff remained mostly intact. They're flush with draft picks.

The biggest impact probably would be felt on defense, where the Patriots sometimes started four rookies: end Brandon Deaderick, outside linebacker Jermaine Cunningham, inside linebacker Brandon Spikes and cornerback Devin McCourty.

Although a couple of veteran defenders returning from injuries (defensive end Ty Warren and cornerback Leigh Bodden) should help stabilize them, the Patriots will have difficulty coaching up their youngsters and improving their terrible third-down defense in a compacted offseason.

Another issue could be the way the Patriots flip through interchangeable parts. The Patriots are adept at discovering undrafted free agents and reclaiming other teams' castoffs, while constantly overturning the bottom of their roster. With no CBA, those roster moves cannot happen.

New York Jets: Free agency will be the Jets' biggest issue if a work stoppage drags out. They have the most free agents in the AFC East and declined to re-sign any of them, aside from placing the franchise tag on inside linebacker David Harris. The Jets didn't want to make any decisions until they knew what the next CBA looked like. That created several questions up and down the roster.

Receiver is the biggest question mark. Santonio Holmes and Braylon Edwards are without contracts, and quarterback Mark Sanchez needs a strong supporting cast. On defense, safety is a concern with Brodney Pool, Eric Smith and James Ihedigbo about to be free agents, too.

No CBA means the Jets won't be able to sign incoming free agents either. Polls have shown players around the league would love to play for Rex Ryan more than any other coach. But the Jets can't use that to their advantage until there's a new deal.

Donte Whitner seems intrigued by speculation the Buffalo Bills might be interested in newly unattached safeties Bob Sanders and O.J. Atogwe.

Whitner has been retweeting links to stories that wonder if the Bills would chase either free agent as a replacement for him. Whitner's contract is about to expire, and he hasn't played up to his draft position. The Bills used the eighth overall pick on him in 2006.

Whitner, one of the NFL's more media-aware players, has retweeted five links so far Monday, including a BuffaloRumblings.com poll that asks fans to choose their ideal starting strong safety: Atogwe, Sanders, Whinter or George Wilson, also a free-agent-to-be.

Another story Whitner linked was from National Football Post writer Matt Bowen, a seven-year NFL safety whose last year was spent in Buffalo when Whitner was a rookie.

Bowen named Buffalo the team that should most hotly pursue Sanders.

Bowen writes:

There is some interest on the part of the Bills. Buffalo has a player in safety Jarius Byrd who will go after the football, but they need another impact player at the position. Donte Whitner wasn't the play maker Buffalo envisioned when they made him a first round pick, and with his contract up, the Bills could look at Sanders to possibly slide into the secondary in 2011. The question for defensive coordinator George Edwards would be where to play him: at free or strong.

Buffalo's interest level, of course, will be commensurate with Sanders' -- or Atogwe's or anybody else's -- price tag. Sanders was a first-team All-Pro for the Indianapolis Colts in 2005 and 2007, but he has played only nine games the past three years.

Buffalo already has taken a gamble on outside linebacker Shawne Merriman with a contract predicated on whether he returns from the Achilles injury that ended his season. If the Bills were to roll the dice with Sanders, then they still should re-sign Wilson or another reliable veteran who can be trusted to play long stretches.

Seven months back, ESPN.com produced its fantasy football projections for 2010. Football Outsiders managing editor Bill Barnwell and I inspected the numbers and got into an over-under competition, choosing three players from each AFC East team and speculating on their seasons.

Never one to flee from the results even when they don't go in my favor, I felt compelled to revisit our forecasts -- for the record.

Barnwell got the better of me, which should be expected. Barnwell makes a living breaking down data, dissecting trends and predicting the future. I work on a paragraph assembly line.

He was correct on 10 of the 15 over-unders. One the five misfires hitting right on the number (Mark Sanchez with 17 touchdowns).

I was correct on eight picks. I'm happy with that. As a former Las Vegan, I can attest that any time you do better than break even on totals, it's a success.

The predictions I'm most proud of were LaDainian Tomlinson going over 646 yards (a choice that caused ESPN.com blog editor Emily Schaible to blurt that if Tomlinson went over 646 yards she would eat her shoe) and Ricky Williams staying under 878 yards.

Barnwell got both of those wrong, but he crushed me on the interception totals. I gave Antonio Cromartie and Jairus Byrd too much love. Barnwell astutely went under on both.

"For years, my cap has been without even the slightest of feathers," Barnwell said at the Over-Under Awards ceremony Thursday night. "Finally, though, I can walk around the streets of Boston with my head held high, thanks to this victory over Tim.

"Thank you, Chad Henne. Thank you, Jairus Byrd. Thank you, Antonio Cromartie. Please don't punch me."

Reader input didn't make compiling the 2010 All-AFC East team a simple process.

Despite your tremendous response to help me assemble the quintessential roster, I had to make an executive decision, break a deadlock, defend one of my no-brainer selections and throw out some ballots because of shenanigans.

In the end, we have an All-AFC East squad everybody should be satisfied with.

We began the process a week ago, when I chose 10 players I believed were automatic. The other 17 positions were for you to vote upon. You didn't disappoint.

There were some great races, most notably at left tackle and nose tackle.

As with any voting process on the AFC East blog, I always can be convinced to move from a stance. My instructions were to vote for one nose tackle for a 3-4 scheme with emphasis that New England Patriots keystone Vince Wilfork and Buffalo Bills standout Kyle Williams must be considered nose tackles because that's how each team identifies him.

But enough readers made the case that Wilfork and Williams played elsewhere along the line so frequently that they should be eligible for some quasi position. I do appreciate the point.

The Patriots' official game-by-game player participation record says Wilfork started eight games at defensive end. Williams started every game at nose tackle (12) or defensive tackle (four).

I decided to add Wilfork and Williams as "defensive tackles" on a defensive front with New York Jets defensive end Shaun Ellis, who received an avalanche of votes. But I didn't want to slight the No. 2 defensive end, Kendall Langford of the Miami Dolphins. Langford received a healthy number of votes. Too many to dismiss.

That left me with a dilemma: How can I honor four defensive linemen and still maintain a 3-4 alignment? I took the easy way out. I added a 12th defender. I'm not thrilled with my final decision, but it's an appropriate way to give proper credit where it's due.

On the other side of scrimmage, Dolphins left tackle Jake Long and Jets left tackle D'Brickashaw Ferguson finished in a tie, forcing me to make the call. Each was selected to be a Pro Bowl starter. Long was voted All-Pro.

I chose Long. He played hurt for much of the season. He slipped on plays here or there, but he mostly remained dominant.

A few readers took me to task for my coronation of Dolphins punter Brandon Fields without allowing a vote because Jets punter Steve Weatherford had a great season. Weatherford tied an NFL record with 42 punts inside the 20-yard line. He was impressive.

But I found Fields more remarkable this year. He ranked fourth with a 46.2-yard average (3.6 yards longer than Weatherford). Fields' net average of 37.8 yards was only 0.3 yards shorter than Weatherford's, but the Dolphins were atrocious on special-teams protection and coverage. They fired their special-teams coordinator after Week 4. Fields had two punts blocked and one returned for a touchdown.

The Jets have venerable special-teams coach Mike Westhoff and sensational coverage men, as illustrated by four Jets receiving at least two votes for the special-teams position on the All-AFC East team.

And it's not often a punter is MVP of a game, but Fields certainly was against the Jets in Week 14.

There were some surprises in the balloting.

Bills receiver Steve Johnson ran away with one of the two available spots, but I didn't expect Santonio Holmes to take the other one so handily over teammate Braylon Edwards or Patriots star Wes Welker.

I assumed Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski would win, but in a close race, especially with the possibility of splitting votes with teammate Aaron Hernandez. Gronkowski crushed everyone else. He had four times as many votes as his closest competition, Dustin Keller of the Jets.

Bills linebacker Arthur Moats finished a distant second to Calvin Pace. But I found it amusing that almost every time a vote came in for him, the reader stipulated it was because Moats injured Brett Favre.

Patriots rookie Devin McCourty had six times as many votes as Dolphins cornerback Vontae Davis for the position opposite Jets star Darrelle Revis. Antonio Cromartie wasn't remotely in the race.

The most balanced voting happened at the safety positions. Patriots strong safety Brandon Meriweather edged out Jim Leonhard of the Jets, with Donte Whitner of the Bills closely behind in third.

Bills free safety Jairus Byrd, a Pro Bowler as a rookie in 2009, accumulated just 14 more votes than Patrick Chung of the Patriots.

The special-teams race was fun to track. Thirteen players received at least one vote, with Jets hitter Eric Smith barely beating teammate James Ihedigbo and Bills fullback Corey McIntyre.

Back in my days covering the National Hockey League, "man games lost" were insightful stats we used frequently. The figures helped illustrate how injuries were impacting a team's season.

Man games lost aren't avidly tracked in the NFL. Rosters are more volatile than in the NHL, where fully guaranteed contracts generally cement a roster coming out of training camp.

NFL teams cut and sign players more frequently. Injured players can dress because there's one game a week, and they can be used situationally. In the NHL, you have to play offense and defense. There are no third-down specialists you can safely insert for a shift or two.

Football Outsiders managing editor Bill Barnwell has compiled a worthwhile chart for the NFL.

Better than man games lost, it's starter games lost.

The Indianapolis Colts led the NFL with 89. The Chicago Bears and Kansas City Chiefs were tied for fewest at 11.

In the AFC East, the Miami Dolphins had the most with 62, ranking seventh in the league. They were banged-up all along the offensive and defensive lines. Receiver Brian Hartline, cornerback Will Allen and rookie defensive end Jared Odrick went to injured reserve among a few others.

The New England Patriots were tied for 10th with 54 starter games lost. Tom Brady played through a foot fracture, but they most notably lost cornerback Leigh Bodden and offensive linemen Stephen Neal and Nick Kaczur.

The Buffalo Bills were tied for 21st with 42 starter games lost. That's a great development after what happened to them in 2009, when they finished with 21 players on injured reserve, including left tackle Demetrius Bell, right tackle Brad Butler, inside linebacker Kawika Mitchell, starting cornerbacks Leodis McKelvin and Terrence McGee and Pro Bowl safety Jairus Byrd.

The New York Jets lost starters 38 times, ranking 23rd in the league. Their biggest losses were nose tackle Kris Jenkins, safety Jim Leonhard and right tackle Damien Woody.

What do these numbers say, especially when four of the top five most injury-riddled teams (Colts, Green Bay Packers, Seattle Seahawks, Philadelphia Eagles) made the playoffs?

It means that depth (or playing in the NFC West) is imperative to surviving.

Barnwell offered to break down the chart by upper-body and lower-body injuries, but I haven't gotten that file yet.

Wrapping up the Buffalo Bills' victory against the Cleveland Browns.

What it means: The Bills rebounded from a ghastly loss at the Metrodome to win their third game in five tries. The Bills continue to piece together an admirable second half of the season, creating momentum that will help their rebuilding process.

Play of the game: Tough-luck cornerback Leodis McKelvin intercepted Browns quarterback Jake Delhomme at the Bills' 32-yard line with about four minutes to play.

Streak continues: Bills quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick connected with David Nelson for an 11-yard touchdown in the second quarter. Fitzpatrick has thrown a TD pass in 14 straight games, the team's longest streak since Jim Kelly had 18 in row in 1986-87.

Bills defense steps up: Browns running back Peyton Hillis plowed forth for 49 yards on their first possession, but the Bills stuffed him for 1 and zero yards at their 1-yard line to force a field goal. Hillis rushed for 57 yards the rest of the game and fumbled three times, losing one. Delhomme threw for just 86 yards.

Tight ends make an appearance: Bills tight ends have been invisible this year, but Jonathan Stupar had three catches for a game-high 45 yards. David Martin added a reception for 13 yards.

Don't cross Moats: A week after perhaps ending Brett Favre's Iron Man streak, Bills rookie outside linebacker Arthur Moats had a strip sack of Delhomme to set up a Rian Lindell field goal early in the fourth quarter.

What's next: The Bills will resume their AFC East schedule after two and half months of non-divisional games. The Bills will visit the Miami Dolphins at Sun Life Stadium.

» NFC Stock Watch: East | West | North | South » AFC: East | West | North | South

FALLING

1. Dolphins offensive line: Once the Dolphins' pride and joy, their O-line hasn't held up lately. They were forced to move guard Richie Incognito to center against Chicago last week, when backup center Cory Procter suffered a season-ending knee injury. A shoulder injury to Pro Bowl left tackle Jake Long has weakened the unit further. The Dolphins averaged 3.0 yards a rush against the Bears, a lackluster pass-rushing team that also sacked Tyler Thigpen six times.

2. Dustin Keller, Jets tight end: Through the first four games, Keller averaged 4.8 receptions, 63.5 yards and 1.3 touchdowns. Since then -- and perhaps because Santonio Holmes returned from his suspension -- Keller has averaged 2.7 receptions, 37.5 yards and 0.0 touchdowns. In Sunday's victory over the Texans, Mark Sanchez targeted Keller six times, but they connected just twice for a season-low 7 yards.

3. Jairus Byrd, Bills safety: As a rookie last year, Byrd was selected for the Pro Bowl and tied for the league lead with nine interceptions in 14 games. Byrd's follow-up season has been empty so far. He has zero interceptions and just one pass defensed. He has no sacks or forced fumbles, and he never has been known for his run support.

RISING

1. Jets' feeling of invincibility: There's not much in sports that stuns me anymore. I was able to assemble coherent thoughts after I watched Mike Tyson bite off a chunk of Evander Holyfield's ear. Any singular event can be explained as a wild occurrence or merely happenstance. But what the Jets did to the Texans on Sunday astonished me for the sheer absurdity of this hot streak Rex Ryan's team is on. In Week 10 they became the first team in NFL history to win back-to-back overtime road games, and then they went 72 yards in 45 seconds with no timeouts to score the winning touchdown against the Texans.

2. Buffalo's dynamic offense: The Bills scored 49 points -- five touchdowns in the second half -- in a rollicking comeback road victory over the Bengals. So many players are surging that I couldn't pick just one. Steve Johnson caught a career-high three touchdowns. Ryan Fitzpatrick tied a career-high with four TD passes. Fred Jackson posted consecutive 100-yard rushing games for the first time. Undrafted rookie receiver Donald Jones scored his first NFL touchdown.

3. Danny Woodhead, Patriots running back: If ever the Jets need to be reminded they're not infallible, they just need to check what Woodhead is doing for the Patriots. The Jets didn't have a spot on their 53-man roster for him. Yet he has scored a touchdown in half of his eight games for the Patriots. Woodhead scored on a spectacular 36-yard run in Sunday's victory over the Colts and then made the tackle on the ensuing kickoff. He finished with seven carries for a career-high 69 yards and had four catches for 21 yards.

ORCHARD PARK, N.Y. -- Some quick first-half thoughts from Ralph Wilson Stadium, where the Miami Dolphins lead the Buffalo Bills 10-3 at the break:

• Miami's big-ticket newcomers, receiver Brandon Marshall and linebacker Karlos Dansby, have influenced the game greatly. Marshall has six receptions for 44 yards. Dansby has been credited unofficially with five tackles and a sack to end Buffalo's opening possession.
• Dolfans better hope this isn't a regular occurrence. With about four minutes to go until halftime, Brandon Marshall broke free behind cornerback Leodis McKelvin. Chad Henne undrethrew Marshall, who dropped what should have been about a 40-yard gain.
• Henne is 13 of 18 for 128 yards, no touchdowns or interceptions.
• Trent Edwards is 6 of 10 for 35 yards, no touchdowns or interceptions.
• After talking up the fact he had three starting-caliber running backs, Bills coach Chan Gailey opened the game intent to pass, with a no-tight end, four-receiver set (counting rookie C.J. Spller) and Fred Jackson in the backfield. Fans booed the Bills' offense with 5:22 left in the first quarter.
• The Bills didn't emphasize the run until the second quarter, and it worked. On one drive, Marshawn Lynch had a 15-yard run, and Jackson had a 9-yard run. The drive ended with a 51-yard Rian Lindell field goal.
• Previous head coach Dick Jauron probably doesn't try to kick from that long. He never showed much faith in Lindell. Gailey obviously likes him and sent him on the field for an unsuccessful 63-yard try at the end of the first half.
• Miami's Pro Bowl kicker, Dan Carpenter, missed from 46 yards late in the first half.
• Buffalo has had problems stopping Miami on third and long. Miami has two third-and-10 plays.
• Bills safety Jairus Byrd has been used in obvious passing situations only. The Pro Bowler has been slowed by his recurring groin injury.
• There was a half-hearted union salute before kickoff. A smattering of players from either sideline imitated Thursday night's index-finger-in-the-air gesture from Thursday night's game between the Minnesota Vikings and New Orleans Saints in the Superdome.

In February, the wait felt like it would be interminable. As it does every year.

But we're finally here. The start of the NFL regular season is upon us. A meaningful game will be played Thursday night in the Superdome.

Let's mark the occasion in the AFC East with a look at my preseason all-division team.

I've selected a full team of starters on offense, defense and special team -- down to the holder -- based on how I predict they will have performed when we look back on the season in January.

With four 3-4 defenses, I didn't have to bend positions to include everyone. In addition to position, I adhered to which side a player lined up.

The New York Jets and Miami Dolphins lead the way with eight selections each. The Buffalo Bills have six (one player was chosen in two special-teams spots) and the New England Patriots have five.

OFFENSE

WR: Randy Moss, Patriots

LT: Jake Long, Dolphins

LG: Andy Levitre, Bills

C: Nick Mangold, Jets

RG: Brandon Moore, Jets

RT: Vernon Carey, Dolphins

TE: Dustin Keller, Jets

WR: Santonio Holmes, Jets

QB: Tom Brady, Patriots

RB: Ronnie Brown, Dolphins

FB: Lousaka Polite, Dolphins

DEFENSE

LE: Marcus Stroud, Bills

NT: Vince Wilfork, Patriots

RE: Jared Odrick, Dolphins

OLB: Calvin Pace, Jets

ILB: David Harris, Jets

ILB: Karlos Dansby, Dolphins

OLB: Cameron Wake, Dolphins

CB: Darrelle Revis, Jets

CB: Antonio Cromartie, Jets

FS: Jairus Byrd, Bills

SS: Brandon Meriweather, Patriots

SPECIAL TEAMS

K: Stephen Gostkowski, Patriots

P: Brian Moorman, Bills

H: Brian Moorman, Bills

LS: John Denney, Dolphins

KR: C.J. Spiller, Bills

PR: Roscoe Parrish, Bills

The hardest spots to select were left guard, defensive end and outside linebacker because there are so many young or unproven players there. Stroud is an established veteran, but he's moving to a 3-4 defense.

Let me know what you think in the comments section.