ESPN NFL

It's early in the offseason. But from the looks of it, the Miami Dolphins want to run an up-tempo offense under first-year head coach Joe Philbin.

The former offensive coordinator of the Green Bay Packers is known for putting pressure on defenses. Green Bay was as good as anyone in dictating tempo. Last year the Packers were third in total offense (405.1 yards per game) and first in scoring (35 points per game).

But can Philbin's philosophy work in Miami?

The key to Philbin's first year will be quickly learning and knowing his personnel. New coaches often make the mistake of assuming their system and concepts are one size fits all.

Miami quarterbacks Matt Moore or David Garrard certainly isn't Aaron Rodgers. Dolphins receiver Brian Hartline is not Greg Jennings, and tight end Anthony Fasano is not comparable to Packers tight end Jermichael Finley.

The Dolphins have uncertainty at quarterback and the worst group of receivers in the division. Going up-tempo has its risks. Miami could face plenty of three-and-outs, which would put a lot of pressure on its defense.

Philbin and offensive coordinator Mike Sherman need to be careful about this while installing their new West Coast offense. Green Bay's strengths under Philbin were the quarterback and passing game. It's much easier to go up-tempo when you have a Pro Bowl and Super Bowl-winning quarterback throwing to stud receivers and tight ends.

Miami doesn't have that on its roster this year. The Dolphins' strength is their running game behind their offensive line and 1,000-yard rusher Reggie Bush. It would be wise for Miami's coaching staff to keep that in mind.

Jermichael Finley's recent $15 million contract with the Green Bay Packers may not seem like much on the surface. But his $7.5 million salary per season should be a cause for concern for the reigning AFC champion New England Patriots.

Finley, who caught 55 receptions for 767 yards in 2011, is setting the bar pretty high to keep quality tight ends. The Patriots have two dynamic tight ends in Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez, and both had more catches and more yards than Finely last season.

If Finley is worth $7.5 million per season, how much are New England's tight ends worth?

Is Hernandez (79 receptions, 910 yards) worth $8 million per year? Is Gronkowski (90 receptions, 1,327 yards) worth $9 or $10 million per year? There is very little chance the Patriots can pay two players that kind of money at the same position. They wouldn't have enough cap room to be strong in other areas.

The good news is New England doesn't have to worry about this problem for at least two more years. Gronkowski and Hernandez were drafted together in 2010 and have two seasons remaining on their rookie contracts.

But at some point, the Patriots have to pay up. New England will need to choose between their two great tight ends -- and both will be deserving of at least the annual salary Finley just received.

Here is a potential clue to tracking the Miami Dolphins in free agency: Watch the Green Bay Packers.

Yes, general manager Jeff Ireland is running the show in Miami. But that doesn't mean Dolphins rookie head coach Joe Philbin won't add some influence about the players he's most familiar with.

Green Bay went 15-1 this season. Here are some key pending free agents for the Packers to keep an eye on:

• QB Matt Flynn
• TE Jermichael Finley
• RB Ryan Grant
• C Scott Wells

Philbin worked directly with this group day-to-day as Green Bay's offensive coordinator.

It's no secret Philbin likes Flynn, who was Aaron Rodgers' backup for four seasons. Perhaps no coach outside of the Packers’ staff knows Flynn better than Miami’s rookie head coach. I fully expect Miami to be in the Flynn sweepstakes if Indianapolis Colts quarterback Peyton Manning is out of the equation.

Finley and Grant are interesting cases. I doubt Finley is going anywhere. He is one of Rodgers' favorite targets and most likely will get an extension or the franchise tag. Grant might be someone of interest, although Miami has 1,000-yard rusher Reggie Bush and budding rookie Daniel Thomas. Wells is Green Bay's starting center, and Mike Pouncey is Miami's long-term solution there.

One of the greatest Super Bowls in history is coming out for an encore, as the New York Giants and the New England Patriots hook up Feb. 5 in Indianapolis in a rematch of Super Bowl XLII just four years ago. There are 15 Giants and seven Patriots left from that game, which the Giants won to spoil New England's perfect season. But this year's matchup has plenty of its own storylines without dredging up the old ones. AFC East blogger James Walker and NFC East blogger Dan Graziano will both be on hand in Indy, but in the meantime, they've joined forces to break down Super Bowl XLVI way in advance.

Graziano: Well, James, just as everyone predicted, the Super Bowl features the team that finished 27th in total defense in the regular season against the team that finished 31st. Having watched the Giants' past 10 games, I've seen their defense transform from one of the league's most vulnerable into a tight, cohesive, disciplined bunch that bears almost no resemblance to what they were running out there in the middle of the season. When I've watched the Patriots' defense, it's looked to me like one of the worst I've ever seen. What have they been able to do lately in terms of adjustments to limit their opponents and get this far?

Walker: Hey, Mr. Pineapple ... I mean ... Dan. I don’t know whether you’re more shocked the Giants are going to Indy, based on your earlier “I’m a pineapple” statement, or that the Patriots will join them. You were pretty adamant about the Baltimore Ravens exposing New England’s defense last week -- and I can’t blame you. I have been one of the Patriots' harshest critics. But it’s time to give this group some credit. New England has allowed just 30 points the past two games, and the biggest reason is the front seven. Defensive lineman Vince Wilfork and linebackers Brandon Spikes, Jerod Mayo and Rob Ninkovich have simultaneously taken their games to another level. That is what you want this time of year. They are dominating the line of scrimmage and getting pressure on the quarterback. New England has eight sacks in the playoffs. I don’t know where this version of the Patriots’ defense has been all season, but in talking with players the past two weeks, I don’t think they care. The defense is happy to finally make plays to help the Patriots win.

Graziano: So it looks as though both teams have overhauled or tightened up some things since the Giants went up there in Week 9 and beat the Pats in Foxborough. I'm curious to see what role that result will play in this game and the preparation for it. Justin Tuck told me Tuesday that he expects Tom Brady to do completely different stuff this time around, because he's got such great ability to adjust to what the defense is trying to do to him. And unlike the Giants' past two games, which avenged regular-season losses to Green Bay and San Francisco, this is a rematch of a regular-season game the Giants won. I can't help but think the success they had against Brady in Week 9 -- not to mention in the Super Bowl four years ago -- has to help the Giants' mental state as they prepare. If you can strip away some of that unbeatable veneer from Brady, that's a big psychological assist.

Walker: I agree, Dan. I don’t see either team lacking confidence. The Giants have it from beating New England in Super Bowl XLII and the regular season. The Patriots have it from reeling off 10 straight victories. The Patriots feel they are a much better team than what the Giants faced in Week 9. I think New England took a lot from those back-to-back losses to Pittsburgh and New York in the regular season. The Patriots knew they were good, but it was questionable whether they were mentally and physically tough. That has been the case since those two losses. The Patriots have overcome a couple of big deficits in the regular season, then lambasted Denver and showed grit against Baltimore in the playoffs. But enough about defense, Dan. We can’t do a Double Coverage without talking in depth about the quarterbacks. How do you size up Brady, who is elite, versus Eli Manning, whom many feel just catapulted into elite status with his second Super Bowl run?

Graziano: You can make the argument that Brady is the best quarterback in the history of the sport. And because of that, any other quarterback is going to have a tough time in this comparison. But I'll say these things about Eli: He's gotten better every year. Last season, the knock on him was interceptions, and he got those down. He's been smart with his decision-making and responsible with the ball. He was winning games by himself this season when the Giants couldn't stop anyone on defense and couldn't run the ball at all. His teammates trust and believe in him totally. His demeanor never changes, regardless of the intensity of the situation, and that's why he's able to excel in spots that cause other players to shrink. Every single one of those things can be said about Brady, and the fact that you can also say them about Eli at this point in his career gives the Giants a huge assist in a matchup such as this. Because to beat Brady, you need to have a quarterback on your side who's at least capable of outplaying Brady on any given day. Eli has shown he has that capability, and that's another reason the Giants have been able to close the psychological gap the Patriots have held over so many other teams in recent years.

Walker: Manning and the Giants certainly present a challenge that Tim Tebow and Joe Flacco did not. But if I’m choosing which of these two quarterbacks I want leading my team in the Super Bowl, I’m taking Brady every time. He just tied Joe Montana for the most playoff wins in NFL history with 16. Brady can surpass Montana for postseason wins, and tie Montana and Terry Bradshaw’s four Super Bowls victories by beating the Giants. Some might point to Brady's struggles against Baltimore’s elite defense in the AFC title game. But I think that makes the ultra-competitive Brady even more focused and more dangerous in the Super Bowl. When was the last time Brady played two duds in a row? New England had some issues passing for a ton of yards against Pro Bowl safety Ed Reed and Baltimore’s big, athletic corners. But New York’s secondary doesn’t have nearly the same talent. I expect Brady to bounce back and do some damage passing against the Giants’ defense, especially in a dome and on the fast track at Lucas Oil Stadium. I think the biggest issue is the Patriots’ ability to pass protect against New York’s monster front four.

Graziano: The Giants will come after Brady. They believe that's the best way to rattle him, because they believe that's the best way to rattle any quarterback. And the Giants know their defense really works only if it gets pressure on the quarterback with the front four. Their coverage in the secondary has improved in recent weeks, but as Vernon Davis proved, it can get exposed when the pressure is insufficient. I'm fascinated to see how they handle the Patriots' tight ends after they were able to neutralize Jermichael Finley two weeks ago and got burned by Davis last week. Do they have to worry about Rob Gronkowski, or is the ankle injury going to give them a break?

Walker: Gronkowski won’t be 100 percent, but who is this time of year? There are two reasons I’m sure he will play. First, he returned to the AFC title game in the fourth quarter. Second, he said he won’t miss the Super Bowl. Of course, there could be setbacks, but Gronkowski seemed confident it won't keep him off the field. Whether we see Gronkowski at 70 percent or 90 percent is up to how well his rehabilitation goes. But he has to be accounted for as long as he’s on the field. This could mean more chances for fellow tight end Aaron Hernandez. He is slightly more athletic and stretches the field more than Gronkowski, which might work better against the Giants’ defense. Should we make our predictions now, Dan, or wait until next week? What say you?

Graziano: As I tell my followers every time they ask, I make my predictions on Fridays. So I’m going to wait until Friday, Feb. 3, to make my pick for this game. That gives me another week-plus to mull over whether the Giants have an answer for the Gronk, and I look forward to talking it over with you in Indy, James. See you there in a few days.

No. 12 deserves the NFL's Most Valuable Player award this season. But it's not who you think.

Contrary to popular belief, Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers is not this year's MVP. That distinction, for the second straight year, should go to New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady.

Now, before you roll your eyes, open your mind and hear me out.

Brady won the award last year during New England's 14-2 run, and he deserves to be just the second back-to-back MVP since 1998. This is not to discredit Rodgers, who is having a tremendous season. But sometimes numbers and hype get in the way of what the Most Valuable Player award, by definition, actually means.

The award is meant for the player who is the most important to their team. Let that sink in, because this is a key element to this debate.

Rodgers has been lights out and putting up great numbers for undefeated Green Bay (12-0). But what happens if you take Rodgers off the Packers? They won't be 16-0, but the defending Super Bowl champs would still keep the ball rolling with highly touted backup Matt Flynn and make it to the playoffs.

Green Bay has enough stars on offense (Greg Jennings, Jermichael Finley, Donald Driver, Jordy Nelson) and big-time playmakers on defense (Clay Matthews, Charles Woodson, B.J. Raji) to win plenty of games without Rodgers. I think Green Bay could even win the NFC North this year without Rodgers, considering the Chicago Bears (7-5) lost quarterback Jay Cutler, the Detroit Lions (7-5) are inconsistent and the Minnesota Vikings (2-10) stink.

In contrast, consider this: Where would the Patriots be without Brady?

With the NFL's worst-rated defense and no true superstars on the roster minus Brady, some believe New England would be similar to the Indianapolis Colts (0-12) this year without Peyton Manning. I'm not ready to go that far. But New England certainly would have a losing record.

Little-known backup Brian Hoyer or rookie quarterback Ryan Mallett have virtually no chance of getting this Patriots team to the playoffs. New England is too weak in other areas and couldn't afford poor play at quarterback.

And please do not point to what happened in 2008. That Patriots team had a top-10 defense and was much more balanced. Quarterback Matt Cassel is a former Pro Bowler who led the Patriots to 11 wins. Cassel was way more advanced and developed than Hoyer and Mallett.

The "Brady factor" in New England is clearly stronger than the "Rodgers factor" in Green Bay.

Without Brady, the Patriots would be challenging the Buffalo Bills (5-7) and Miami Dolphins (4-8) for third or fourth place in the AFC East this season. I'm sure New York Jets head coach Rex Ryan would be happy about that.

For those who want to focus only on the numbers, Brady's statistics are right on Rodgers' heels. In fact, Brady (3,916) has thrown for more yards than Rodgers (3,844) and is on a faster pace to eclipse Dan Marino's single-season passing record of 5,084 yards.

Also, Brady has thrown for 10 touchdowns and zero interceptions in the past month. Brady hasn't thrown a pick since Nov. 6. Rodgers has two interceptions the past three weeks.

The coach of the year award often doesn't go to the coach with the most victories. The award usually goes to the coach who overcomes the most hardship and does more with less. That is why San Francisco 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh will most likely get the nod this year over Green Bay counterpart Mike McCarthy.

Just like McCarthy probably will not win the coach of the year, Rodgers should not be the MVP this season. The cupboards are very full in Green Bay, and neither faced much hardship in their quest for an undefeated season and another Super Bowl title.

Brady is doing more with far less talent around him and is much more valuable to New England's success.

So forget that other guy wearing No. 12. Brady is this year's MVP.

NFC North blogger Kevin Seifert filed a fantasy-related item to his blog that gives some insight about the Buffalo Bills' problems defending tight ends.

In response to ESPN fantasy expert Matthew Berry promoting Bears tight end Greg Olsen as a player to start or add to your fantasy roster this weekend, Seifert dredged up some eye-opening numbers, and I rounded out the rundown.

• Week 1: Miami Dolphins, Anthony Fasano, three catches for 46 yards (long reception to the 1 that set up Miami's only touchdown).
• Week 2: Green Bay Packers, Jermichael Finley, four catches for 103 yards.
• Week 3: New England Patriots, Aaron Hernandez, six catches for 65 yards; Rob Gronkowski, three catches for 43 yards and one touchdown.
• Week 4: New York Jets, Dustin Keller, four catches for 28 yards and two touchdowns.
• Week 5: Jacksonville Jaguars, Marcedes Lewis, four catches for 54 yards and two touchdowns.
• Week 7: Baltimore Ravens, Todd Heap, three catches for 59 yards and two touchdowns.
• Week 8: Kansas City Chiefs, Tony Moeaki, three catches for 43 yards.

When you add the handful of additional stats from backup tight ends, the Bills have surrendered 36 receptions for 491 yards and seven touchdowns to opposing tight ends.

Averaged out for the season, the stat line looks like that of an All-Pro: 82 receptions, 1,122 yards and 16 touchdowns.

The Miami Dolphins' chances of victory have improved based on the Green Bay Packers' scratches Sunday at Lambeau Field.

The Packers will be without four starters, including the NFL's sacks leader, outside linebacker Clay Matthews.

Miami will have inside linebacker Channing Crowder in uniform for the first time this year. Defensive end Jared Odrick will miss his fourth straight game with a leg injury.

Miami Dolphins

• Quarterback Tyler Thigpen
• Receiver Marlon Moore
• Tight end Jeron Mastrud
• Guard John Jerry
• Tackle Patrick Brown
• Defensive end Jared Odrick
• Defensive end Robert Rose
• Linebacker Austin Spitler

Green Bay Packers

• Tight end Jermichael Finley
• Right tackle Mark Tauscher
• Offensive lineman Nick McDonald
• Offensive lineman Marshall Newhouse
• Defensive end Ryan Pickett
• Defensive end Mike Neal
• Inside linebacker Brandon Chillar
• Outside linebacker Clay Matthews

Over the past 10 months or so, New York Jets detractors have been quick to belittle last year's playoff run as a gift, courtesy of the Indianapolis Colts' and Cincinnati Bengals' junior varsity squads in Weeks 16 and 17.

Many of those critics are Miami Dolphins fans, but I have a feeling they'll gladly take a victory against the injury-plagued Green Bay Packers on Sunday if star quarterback Aaron Rodgers doesn't play.

AccuScore calculates the absence of Rodgers and tight end Jermichael Finley (already ruled out) would bring a 22-point swing in the Dolphins' favor.

If Rodgers plays, then the Packers have a 65 percent chance to win.

If he's sidelined, then the Dolphins have a 57 percent chance to win. In AccuScore's 10,000 simulations, Packers backup quarterback Matt Flynn averages about a 66 passer rating and more interceptions than touchdown passes.

The Dolphins have a healthy 75 percent chance of scoring an upset at Lambeau Field if Rodgers doesn't play and running backs Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams combine to rush for more than 100 yards. If all that happens, then the Dolphins have a 75 percent chance of winning.

The Miami Dolphins badly need a victory to make sure they don't fall too far behind the AFC East title race.

The Green Bay Packers might oblige them by fielding an incomplete team Sunday at Lambeau Field.

The Dolphins have had trouble defending tight ends since last season, but Packers star Jermichael Finley will be out with a knee injury. Right tackle Mark Tauscher will be out with a shoulder injury. Linebacker Nick Barnett had wrist surgery Wednesday morning.

Two biggies: quarterback Aaron Rodgers and NFL sacks leader Clay Matthews are uncertain.

Rodgers suffered a concussion in Sunday's game. Packers coach Mike McCarthy said Wednesday the team wouldn't have any indication until Thursday morning if Rodgers could play against the Dolphins.

McCarthy also said Matthews likely would miss practice all week because of a hamstring injury.

The Packers have several other players who are banged up and listed on the injury report in some fashion.

The Dolphins, meanwhile, got healthier during their bye week. Inside linebacker Channing Crowder (groin) and defensive end Jared Odrick (leg) were on the practice field.

The Miami Dolphins have a problem defending tight ends.

They struggled throughout 2009 to contain them, and they're off to a rougher start this season.

Tight ends accumulated a nice stat line against Miami last year: 68 receptions for 993 yards and four touchdowns.

Through three games, even with the Buffalo Bills not throwing a single pass to their tight ends on opening day, that position is on pace to catch 69 passes for 1,099 yards and 11 touchdowns against the Dolphins.

That's an All-Pro campaign.

"We've got to do a little bit better job," Dolphins coach Tony Sparano said.

Next up are a pair of rookies who've already established themselves as dangerous targets.

The Dolphins will have difficult matchups Monday night with New England Patriots tight ends Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski.

Each is capable to doing damage.

Hernandez is more of a pure receiver, averaging 70.3 receiving yards per game. That ranks him fourth among all tight ends behind only Jermichael Finley, Antonio Gates and Dustin Keller and ahead of Dallas Clark.

Gronkowksi is the bigger red-zone threat. He has a pair of touchdowns, tying him for third in the league. On the Patriots, he has one fewer touchdown than Randy Moss and Wes Welker.

"They've done a very good job," Patriots quarterback Tom Brady said. "Both are very young in age. I think one of them is 20 (Hernandez) and one just turned 21 (Gronkowski). So for young players, it's pretty neat to find them playing such a great role on our offense.

"With each week, I think they are gaining a little more confidence in what they're doing through the experience that they're having, and we're relying on them every week to be playmakers for us."

The Patriots were one of the few teams who didn't get in on the tight end passing party last year.

As gaudy as the aforementioned 2009 tight end stats versus the Dolphins looked, the Patriots actually improved the averages. Benjamin Watson and Chris Baker combined for only five receptions and 55 yards in two games against Miami.

Tight ends tearing apart the Dolphins in the middle of the field -- think of Clark's seven-catch, 183-yard night -- were a major reason they made so many offseason defensive changes. The Dolphins fired coordinator Paul Pasqualoni. They released linebackers Akin Ayodele and Reggie Torbor and safety Gibril Wilson because they were responsible for so many big plays.

Keller exploited the Dolphins on Sunday night. He helped the Jets post a big road victory with six catches for 98 yards and two touchdowns in the first half. The Dolphins did shut him out after the intermission, but that wasn't soon enough.

Sparano knows he'll have problems again Monday night.

"It's difficult, no question about it," Sparano said of Hernandez and Gronkowski. "I think you can try a lot of ways, but with the Patriots you've got to kind of pick your poison a little bit. You can go out there and maybe try to double one of those guys, but then you could expose yourself with Randy or with Wes or with any of those people. You've got to be a little bit careful."

For the first time in his NFL career, Miami Dolphins quarterback Chad Henne heads into a season knowing he's the starter.

"With this year underneath my belt and studying what I had to improve on, what I liked in myself, it's great to come out here and be comfortable, knowing the offense and going out there and executing," Henne told reporters Wednesday after an open workout.

That peace of mind could help propel Henne from prospect to star, according to Scouts Inc. analyst Jeremy Green.

In an ESPN Insider column, Green names Henne among the four players who are ready to make a leap to elite status . Also on the list is Arizona Cardinals running back Beanie Wells, San Francisco 49ers receiver Michael Crabtree and Green Bay Packers tight end Jermichael Finley.

Green is high on Henne because the third-year pro possesses serious tools, had almost an entire season's worth of experience and should challenge defenses with new receiver Brandon Marshall.

Green writes:

Even though last season's numbers were a little disappointing, I believe this will be Henne's season. ... Henne has great physical tools. He can drive the ball downfield, throw into the deep outs and deep curls with excellent velocity, and fit the ball into tight windows. As last season progressed, he got a better understanding of how to change arm motion and velocity to be more accurate on underneath throws. I think he will make great strides this season not only on the field but also off the field in terms of developing into a big-time leader at his position.

Marshall is looking forward to building a relationship with Henne. Marshall won't be able to practice until training camp because of recent surgery, but he has liked what he has seen of Henne so far.

"He's awesome," Marshall said. "Straight shooter, all about business, the type of quarterback you want to play for and play with.

"Just watching him today, his arm is really talented. It's not just one of those arms that is straight strong, but he's accurate. That's what I've noticed in these few days and past couple of weeks working with him. So I'm excited to get out there and get on the same page as him."