AFC East: Joe Montana
Patriots will struggle in post-Tom Brady era
May, 23, 2012
May 23
11:00
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By
James Walker | ESPN.com
Mark J. Rebilas/US PresswireWithout Tom Brady under center, the New England Patriots become just an ordinary team.But all of that comes to an end when Brady retires.
Brady, who turns 35 in August, says he wants to play in New England until he's 40. That is great news for the Patriots, because they will struggle the second the future Hall of Famer hangs it up.
Things that have become foreign to New England the past dozen years will become routine again. New England will have down years and miss the playoffs -- just like everybody else. The Patriots won't survive various injuries -- just like everybody else. The Patriots also will run through a few quarterbacks -- just like everybody else.
On Wednesday, ESPN.com examined potentially dominant teams in 2015
Here are four reasons New England will struggle in the post-Brady era:
No. 1: Patriots won't immediately find Brady's replacement.
Brady's story is once in a generation. He's a former sixth-round pick who slipped through the cracks to become one of the top five quarterbacks of all time. Brady had the drive and “it" factor to become the greatest player in franchise history. Brady often is compared to Joe Montana, because they share a similar story about 20 years apart.
The chances of New England finding another Brady anytime soon are slim.
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Stew Milne/US PresswireWill Ryan Mallett be ready to take over for Tom Brady when the future Hall of Famer is ready to hang it up?
Stew Milne/US PresswireWill Ryan Mallett be ready to take over for Tom Brady when the future Hall of Famer is ready to hang it up?What about Brian Hoyer? The undrafted quarterback has shown small flashes but certainly not enough to warrant Pro Bowl status. The drop-off going from Brady to 99 percent of other quarterbacks will be steep.
Even if Mallett or Hoyer turns out to be a viable starting quarterback, neither will be nearly as good as Brady. Is Mallett or Hoyer a future Hall of Famer? Probably not. Will either quarterback perennially make the Pro Bowl? Not likely.
New England has been able to overcome poor defense, injuries and at times average receivers to still be competitive. Brady was great enough to carry the Patriots through various weaknesses. That no longer will be a luxury in New England. It will be much harder to get everything right with other areas of the team, especially if the quarterback position is in flux.
No. 2: The offense is old.
Brady is turning 35 in August. No. 1 receiver Wes Welker is 31. Starting receiver Brandon Lloyd is 30. Longtime left tackle Matt Light just retired this offseason. Guard Brian Waters might follow, if not this year, then soon after.
When Brady is gone, it's likely all these important offensive pieces will be gone as well. A Patriots offense without Brady, Welker, Lloyd, Light, Waters, etc., means New England is virtually starting over in a few years.
The Patriots still have a couple of young stars in tight ends Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez. But consider this: One tight end probably will bolt in free agency. Both Gronkowski and Hernandez -- two of the top five players at their position -- have rookie contracts set to expire in two years. Both will be looking for huge paydays, and New England can't do that with two players at the same position.
New England most likely will throw the money truck at Gronkowski, perhaps making him the highest-paid tight end, and let Hernandez walk. Brady also will be 37 and possibly retired or on his last legs by the time both tight ends will look for extensions. Returning to New England's offense long term won't be as attractive two years from now for a pending free agent such as Hernandez.
No. 3: Sun is setting on Belichick.
Belichick just turned 60 years old. How much longer will he coach the Patriots?
He has coached in the NFL in some capacity for 37 years. He is approaching his fourth decade in the league.
Even head coaches have a shelf life. Belichick currently is the NFL's fourth-oldest head coach behind Tom Coughlin (65) of the New York Giants, Romeo Crennel (64) of the Kansas City Chiefs and, by a few months, Chan Gailey (60) of the Buffalo Bills. Perhaps we are also witnessing the last few years of Belichick roaming the sidelines.
A good debate topic in New England would be who contributed more to the Patriots' dynasty the past dozen years: Brady or Belichick? Both are Hall of Famers. But in my opinion, Brady's development and dominance at quarterback are stronger factors in New England's success. Belichick would not have won all those games, division titles and championships in New England with shoddy quarterback play. Brady remained dominant and kept the team afloat, even when Belichick struggled coaching the defense, which is Belichick's specialty.
No. 4: The rest of the AFC East will catch up.
I often call the AFC East the "Brady and Belichick division." They're the great equalizers who keep the Patriots on top.
But without Brady in a few years, and perhaps Belichick, all four teams are back to an even playing field. Who will be the top quarterback in the AFC East when Brady retires? Ryan Tannehill? Mark Sanchez? Tim Tebow? Someone else?
Maybe all four teams will have average quarterback play. That means the Patriots, New York Jets, Bills and Miami Dolphins must rely on other areas to be successful and win the division.
Can the Patriots rely on their defense to lead the way? Not right now. Not even close. New England is in no position to overcome poor quarterback play, and that probably won't change overnight.
I expect Brady to play at least two more years (2012 and 2013) at an elite level. He might opt to play beyond that. But after age 37, there's no guarantee Brady can continue to take the physical pounding and play at the high level to which we have become accustomed. We've already seen nagging injuries bother Brady more than ever over the past couple of seasons.
Brady is a special talent the organization probably will never see again. So enjoy the success now, Patriots fans. New England will come back to earth and be an ordinary team again in three to five years.
Quick Take: Giants-Patriots Super Bowl
January, 22, 2012
Jan 22
10:34
PM ET
By
James Walker | ESPN.com
Three things to know about Super Bowl XLVI, which will be played Feb. 5 between the New York Giants and the New England Patriots in Indianapolis:

1. Giant rematch: New England's 2012 playoff revenge tour continues. The Patriots entered the playoffs 0-3 in their previous three postseason games. The Patriots exacted revenge against the Baltimore Ravens Sunday in the AFC Championship Game. Baltimore knocked the Patriots out of the playoffs following the 2009 season. Now, New England gets another chance at the Giants, who beat the then-undefeated Patriots in Super Bowl XLII with a late touchdown drive four years ago. That was the last time both teams reached the Super Bowl.
2. Brady chasing history: Patriots quarterback Tom Brady is chasing history on several levels. Brady is 16-5 in the playoffs and can become the NFL all-time winningest postseason quarterback with a win over the Giants. Brady would surpass his childhood hero Joe Montana. Brady also can tie Montana and former Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Terry Bradshaw with four Super Bowl championships.
3. "Gronk" will be ready: Patriots Pro Bowl tight end Rob Gronkowski suffered a gruesome-looking left ankle injury that knocked him out of the third quarter of the AFC Championship Game. He eventually returned in the fourth quarter but played on adrenaline. Gronkowski said he will be ready. But the ankle will probably experience some swelling over the next couple days and this will be a big injury to watch. "Gronk" has been a major part of New England's offense. He caught five receptions for 87 yards in the AFC title game.

1. Giant rematch: New England's 2012 playoff revenge tour continues. The Patriots entered the playoffs 0-3 in their previous three postseason games. The Patriots exacted revenge against the Baltimore Ravens Sunday in the AFC Championship Game. Baltimore knocked the Patriots out of the playoffs following the 2009 season. Now, New England gets another chance at the Giants, who beat the then-undefeated Patriots in Super Bowl XLII with a late touchdown drive four years ago. That was the last time both teams reached the Super Bowl.
2. Brady chasing history: Patriots quarterback Tom Brady is chasing history on several levels. Brady is 16-5 in the playoffs and can become the NFL all-time winningest postseason quarterback with a win over the Giants. Brady would surpass his childhood hero Joe Montana. Brady also can tie Montana and former Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Terry Bradshaw with four Super Bowl championships.
3. "Gronk" will be ready: Patriots Pro Bowl tight end Rob Gronkowski suffered a gruesome-looking left ankle injury that knocked him out of the third quarter of the AFC Championship Game. He eventually returned in the fourth quarter but played on adrenaline. Gronkowski said he will be ready. But the ankle will probably experience some swelling over the next couple days and this will be a big injury to watch. "Gronk" has been a major part of New England's offense. He caught five receptions for 87 yards in the AFC title game.
Elsa/Getty ImagesDoes Tom Brady have what it takes to be an NFL starting quarterback until he's 40?That means, theoretically, Brady and coach Bill Belichick plan to dominate the AFC East and keep New England in title contention until 2017. Brady will turn 35 in August.
But five more years? That is an eternity in the NFL in which the average career span is approximately 3-4 seasons. Does Brady have enough in the tank to play 17 years at such a demanding position?
According to the Elias Sports Bureau, only four quarterbacks in NFL history have started on opening day at 40 or older. Warren Moon (41) was the oldest, followed by Brett Favre (40), Vinny Testaverde (40) and Johnny Unitas (40). Brady wants to become the fifth player to accomplish that feat.
Former quarterback and ESPN analyst Trent Dilfer played 14 seasons in the NFL and believes Brady will reach that goal. According to Dilfer, the key to quarterback durability is the lower body, not the upper body.
"What goes first with quarterbacks is their legs. Once you lose your legs, you kind of lose everything else," Dilfer explained. "I remember Kurt Warner talking about that late in his career, and obviously I experienced it. Every quarterback experiences it. I think Tom works hard enough to maintain the leg strength he needs to be as precise as he is, and I think he's a competitor that if he puts something in his mind that he's going to do something, he's a guy that goes out and does it.
"There's very few people in sports like that, talk about the Kobe Bryants and the greats in all sports. I think Tom is right up there. When he puts his mind to something, he's going to do it. So I fully expect him to be playing at 40 if he says he's going to."
It's hard to say when that window will close for Brady, who will lead the Patriots (14-3) in Sunday's AFC Championship Game against the Baltimore Ravens (13-4). He's proved over the past dozen years that as long as he's healthy, he's an elite player. Brady is an MVP candidate this season and by far the best remaining quarterback in the playoffs.
A case can made that Brady's three best statistical seasons occurred after 30 -- in 2007, 2010 and 2011. He also is coming off a record-tying, six-touchdown performance in a 45-10 playoff victory over the Denver Broncos. It was one of his top single-game performances.
Brady projects to be an elite player for at least the next two or three seasons. Injuries are probably the only thing that can derail him at this stage of his career.
Brady had reconstructive knee surgery and missed 15 games in 2008. Otherwise, he has had a clean bill of health. Outside of 2008, he has missed just one start since taking over the job in 2001.
"If anybody can pull it off, it's Brady, but like we saw with Peyton Manning, he could break down easier [with age] too," Matt Williamson of Scouts Inc. said. "Manning may never be the same. He may never play at that same high level. Who knows? If Brady hits one stumbling block like Peyton did, all of a sudden 40 is a long way away for him. But nobody is playing better than Brady right now."
Brady has been fortunate with pass protection throughout his career. He has been sacked 26 times or fewer in six of the past seven seasons.
Former Patriots linebacker Tedy Bruschi was a longtime teammate of Brady's and knows firsthand the importance of protecting the veteran quarterback. Brady is a classic pocket passer who moves well in the pocket. But he doesn't have the ability to run away from defenders.
"As players progress up into the years, the more shots you take, the shorter the second half of your career will be," Bruschi said. "And I think Tom Brady will play as well as his offensive line, his protection, allows him. I think he's shown over the course of the last few years that there are the usual [ailments], they're becoming normal now. Late in the season, where he had a rib or a shoulder or various injuries like that over the course of a season.
"You end up accumulating some damage, especially as a quarterback, because you're the most sought-after hit in terms of the defensive perspective. So if he can be protected, I think that goal is possible. He can play as long as he wants to."
Brady currently is playing with a left shoulder (non-throwing) injury that has to be managed during the playoffs. This week Brady sat out of Wednesday's practice to rehab and watched extra film of Baltimore's defense.
An under-the-radar aspect of Brady's longevity could be the development of tight ends Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez. Both have been tremendous weapons and security blankets for Brady in their second season together.
Throwing in the middle of the field is the quickest and easiest completion for quarterbacks. It also keeps the pass rush at bay.
"They're obviously a huge part of what we do," Brady said of his tight ends this week. "They are on the field quite a bit and they’ve been healthy so it’s been good to have them both out there. ... They're pretty good with the ball in their hands and break a lot of tackles so that’s definitely a plus for us also. We have a lot of yards after catch this year, and those two guys certainly do a great job with the ball in their hands."
Patriots owner Robert Kraft still remembers when the late-round draft pick came to Foxborough as a long shot in 2000. Kraft shared a great story about his first encounter with Brady this week.
"I still have the image of Tom Brady coming down the old Foxboro Stadium steps with that pizza box under his arm, the skinny beanpole," Kraft said. "When he introduced himself to me and he said, ‘Hi, Mr. Kraft,’ and he was about to say who he was and [I said], ‘I know who you are, you’re Tom Brady, you’re our sixth-round draft choice.’ He looked me in the eye and said, ‘I’m the best decision this organization has ever made.' It looks like he could be right, although hiring Bill Belichick, I think, also has been a pretty good decision."
Brady's Hall of Fame legacy is secure. If he retired today, Brady already would be among the top quarterbacks ever to play the position. He has three Super Bowl rings and could tie his childhood hero -- Joe Montana -- for the most playoff victories (16) with a win over Baltimore Sunday.
But the difference between being a top-five quarterback and the greatest ever could come down to these next five years. Brady can tie Montana (four) and Terry Bradshaw (four) for the most titles in these playoffs. But if Brady plays through age 40, he has a legitimate shot at being the winningest quarterback in NFL history.
"I'm really happy that we have him as our quarterback," Kraft said. "I hope we have the best quarterback and coach in the history of the game. I guess to prove that, we have a little more execution that we have to do over the next few years. I certainly hope we do it."
Pats-Ravens: Brady chasing Joe Montana
January, 18, 2012
Jan 18
10:00
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By
James Walker | ESPN.com
Another great season by New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady was often overshadowed by other great players in the NFC such as Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees.
But now that both Rodgers and Brees have been eliminated from the playoffs, more of the focus is on Brady. He is by far the best quarterback remaining in the postseason.
One week after tying an NFL playoff record with six touchdown passes, Brady has another chance Sunday to get into the record books. A win over Baltimore would tie Brady with Hall of Fame quarterback Joe Montana with 16 career playoff victories.
Brady may not at admit it this week, but this is one record he would look back on and cherish once his career is over. Brady grew up in San Mateo, Calif., and idolized Montana. Brady went to San Francisco 49ers games as a child and patterned much of his game after Montana.
If the Patriots win this week and the Super Bowl on Feb. 5, Brady would surpass Montana as the all-time winningest quarterback in the postseason. Brady also would be tied with Montana with four Super Bowl victories.
Winning is the ultimate measure of a quarterback and something Brady cares about much more than individual records. But to be able to potentially accomplish both during this playoff run is a great opportunity for the Patriots quarterback.
But now that both Rodgers and Brees have been eliminated from the playoffs, more of the focus is on Brady. He is by far the best quarterback remaining in the postseason.
One week after tying an NFL playoff record with six touchdown passes, Brady has another chance Sunday to get into the record books. A win over Baltimore would tie Brady with Hall of Fame quarterback Joe Montana with 16 career playoff victories.
Brady may not at admit it this week, but this is one record he would look back on and cherish once his career is over. Brady grew up in San Mateo, Calif., and idolized Montana. Brady went to San Francisco 49ers games as a child and patterned much of his game after Montana.
If the Patriots win this week and the Super Bowl on Feb. 5, Brady would surpass Montana as the all-time winningest quarterback in the postseason. Brady also would be tied with Montana with four Super Bowl victories.
Winning is the ultimate measure of a quarterback and something Brady cares about much more than individual records. But to be able to potentially accomplish both during this playoff run is a great opportunity for the Patriots quarterback.
» Divisional Final Word: Saints-49ers | Broncos-Patriots | Texans-Ravens | Giants-Packers
Three nuggets of knowledge about Saturday's Broncos-Patriots divisional-round game:
Brady's playoff pressure: Perhaps no player has more pressure to win Saturday's game than Patriots quarterback Tom Brady. The future Hall of Famer hasn't won a playoff game in four years and his window for another championship is closing. Brady was 14-2 in his first 16 career playoff games. That run led to three Super Bowls early in his career. But lately Brady is 0-3 in the playoffs, including two one-and-done years in 2009 and 2010. According to the Elias Sports Bureau, Brady is trying to avoid becoming the fifth quarterback in NFL history to lose four consecutive playoff games. If Brady beats Denver, his 15 playoff victories would be No. 2 all-time behind Joe Montana (16).
Gronk or Hernandez? New England tight end Aaron Hernandez had it right. This week he told reporters that the Broncos have to "pick your poison" on which tight end to defend. In Week 15, the Broncos chose to pay a lot of attention to Pro Bowl tight end Rob Gronkowski, and Hernandez had a big game. Hernandez torched Denver for nine catches, 129 yards and a touchdown in a 41-23 victory. Gronkowski saw a lot of double coverage and caught just four passes for 53 yards, one of his lowest outputs of the season. The question is, will Denver adjust or keep the same strategy? Hernandez and Gronkowski are both capable of big games, and the pair needs to stay ready.
O-line at full strength: The Patriots are coming off a bye week and are as healthy as they've been in months. Two key offensive linemen are expected to return for the playoffs. Pro Bowl guard Logan Mankins (knee) and starting offensive tackle Sebastian Vollmer (knee) both practiced this week. Protecting Brady will be key. New England throws the ball a lot, and the line has to protect him from Denver pass-rushing specialists Elvis Dumervil and Von Miller.
Three nuggets of knowledge about Saturday's Broncos-Patriots divisional-round game:
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Elsa/Getty ImagesNew England QB Tom Brady is seeking his first playoff victory in four years.
Elsa/Getty ImagesNew England QB Tom Brady is seeking his first playoff victory in four years.Gronk or Hernandez? New England tight end Aaron Hernandez had it right. This week he told reporters that the Broncos have to "pick your poison" on which tight end to defend. In Week 15, the Broncos chose to pay a lot of attention to Pro Bowl tight end Rob Gronkowski, and Hernandez had a big game. Hernandez torched Denver for nine catches, 129 yards and a touchdown in a 41-23 victory. Gronkowski saw a lot of double coverage and caught just four passes for 53 yards, one of his lowest outputs of the season. The question is, will Denver adjust or keep the same strategy? Hernandez and Gronkowski are both capable of big games, and the pair needs to stay ready.
O-line at full strength: The Patriots are coming off a bye week and are as healthy as they've been in months. Two key offensive linemen are expected to return for the playoffs. Pro Bowl guard Logan Mankins (knee) and starting offensive tackle Sebastian Vollmer (knee) both practiced this week. Protecting Brady will be key. New England throws the ball a lot, and the line has to protect him from Denver pass-rushing specialists Elvis Dumervil and Von Miller.
There's this guy named Tom Brady, and he had a pretty good season playing football for the New England Patriots ...
BradyFor those who hadn't heard about his campaign or weren't quite sure that 14 wins, 36 touchdown passes and only four interceptions are desirable, Brady unanimously won The Associated Press 2010 Most Valuable Player Award.
What made Sunday's announcement newsworthy was how completely obvious Brady was the top candidate. Brady is the first unanimous selection for MVP under the Associated Press' current selection process.
Brady received all 50 votes from AP's panel of media who cover the league. He also was a unanimous All-Pro selection and won the AP's offensive player of the year award on Tuesday.
Brady came one vote short of being a unanimous MVP choice in 2007, with the dissenting vote going to Brett Favre. Brady is the eighth player to take MVP honors multiple times, joining Jim Brown, Johnny Unitas, Joe Montana, Steve Young, Favre, Kurt Warner and Peyton Manning.

What made Sunday's announcement newsworthy was how completely obvious Brady was the top candidate. Brady is the first unanimous selection for MVP under the Associated Press' current selection process.
Brady received all 50 votes from AP's panel of media who cover the league. He also was a unanimous All-Pro selection and won the AP's offensive player of the year award on Tuesday.
Brady came one vote short of being a unanimous MVP choice in 2007, with the dissenting vote going to Brett Favre. Brady is the eighth player to take MVP honors multiple times, joining Jim Brown, Johnny Unitas, Joe Montana, Steve Young, Favre, Kurt Warner and Peyton Manning.
Bill Parcells breaks down AFC title game
January, 21, 2011
1/21/11
1:55
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By Tim Graham | ESPN.com
AP Photo/Ed ReinkeEx-NFL coach Bill Parcells advanced to the Super Bowl three times in his career, but never had to face three potential Hall of Fame quarterbacks to get there.Parcells has been there a few times. He took three teams to the Super Bowl. He won a pair with the New York Giants and lost another with the New England Patriots. Parcells has navigated his share of treacherous postseason games.
But Parcells, now a consultant with the Miami Dolphins, doesn't covet Ryan's road.
If the Jets do reach the Super Bowl, then they will have beaten Peyton Manning in Lucas Oil Stadium, Tom Brady in Gillette Stadium and Ben Roethlisberger at Heinz Field (twice in a month).
"I can't say I've ever faced three in a row like that," Parcells told me by phone from South Florida. "The closest I ever came to anything like that was Joe Montana and then Jim Kelly in the Super Bowl."
That was the 1990 season, but the Giants had a first-round playoff bye and home-field advantage in the divisional round, where the Chicago Bears' quarterback was Mike Tomczak.
But before my conversation with Parcells found much traction on what it must be like to face such a homicidal lineup of quarterbacks, he put the job into perspective.
"I don't look at it like that," Parcells said. "Obviously, those are marquee, proven, winning quarterbacks. That's a difficult task.
"But I kind of look at it like they need to beat the Colts and the Patriots and the Steelers. The dynamics of each of those games is substantially different than the others aside from the fact they have those productive quarterbacks."
Parcells emphasized all opponents have liabilities to target as long as you look at them in their totality and not get too consumed with star players. It just so happens that none of the Jets' opponents are weak at quarterback.
With that, Parcells broke down some of his key points for the Jets and Steelers in the AFC Championship Game.
Tim Graham: So you don't think we should focus too much on the quarterbacks the Jets have to face?
Bill Parcells: There are a lot of other things that come into play from a matchup standpoint besides the efficiency of the opponent's quarterback. I do think this game is a far different game than the one they played last weekend. The style of defense that both teams play will be markedly different than the ones employed by New England and the Colts.
TG: Can you give some examples?
BP: Pittsburgh plays a lot of zone, and they zone blitz and they're better against the run than the other two teams. Off the top of my head, if Pittsburgh is successful in defending the run, then the third-down efficiency of the Jets will probably go down. That will be an issue for the Jets.
Now, on the other side of the coin, Pittsburgh has shown some vulnerability to a good pass rush, and Pittsburgh has some injuries at tackle. The Jets didn't blitz much versus New England. You may see a very different plan from the Jets versus Pittsburgh because besides the fact Roethlisberger will hold the ball, which makes him a little more vulnerable, Pittsburgh doesn't look like they pass protect as well as, say, a team like New England.
The other element that I think is different this week for the Jets is that Pittsburgh has a definite deep threat in Mike Wallace. New England, in my opinion, doesn't have a player like that right now. That deep threat, I think, will force the Jets to do something.
TG: What are your thoughts on Mark Sanchez?
BP: My hat's off to him because he's done a good job for that team. But the key to the Jets more -- not so much that he's not a key because he is; he made some great throws the other day to win that game -- is the Jets' overall running attack. If they don't run the ball well and they're one-dimensional, they will have a hard time with Pittsburgh. If they have some good balance, I think you'll see the Jets have success. But the same's true for Pittsburgh, now. No different. They've got to do something, too, in the run game because I don't know if they'll pass block the Jets well enough to beat them if they don't.
Sanchez will be a good contributor. He'll do what he's been doing, which so far has been good enough.
They've already beat them out there [in Pittsburgh], so they have a good chance. But the game is a toss-up, to me. There's a lot more on the line right now. This is a lot different than a regular-season game. The Jets have a good special teams group. That's another thing Pittsburgh has to be concerned about.
TG: How much does the fact the Jets won at Heinz Field a month ago impact the rematch?
BP: The good thing about this game for the Jets is they've gone to Pittsburgh and beaten them already. So they know they can do it. Pittsburgh will have their ears up because, 'Gee whiz, they came in here and beat us once. They might be able to do that again.' The psychology of the game can play into both teams' hands. That could favor both teams. They both should be crystal clear on the situation.
TG: Troy Polamalu didn't play in that game, though.
BP: That's correct. But I think what will be an even more important weapon is the Steelers' tight end, Heath Miller. He didn't play last time either. In the grand scheme of things, that presents some issues. Polamalu is a player that you have to deal with. He's one of the 11 defenders. But offensively, you don't have any control over where he's going to be and what he's going to do. You have to react to him. Pittsburgh's tight end, the Jets can exercise a measure of control on that player if they want to attempt to.
TG: How do you think the game will go down?
BP: It should be interesting. It's going to be a great game. Both teams have done well, but I can't tell you what's going to happen anymore than I can tell you what's going to happen with the Bears and the Packers. If the Packers play like they played last week, they're going to win.
TG: Well, that's anticlimactic. ... But I can't thank you enough for your analysis, Bill. Should I have ESPN send a check?
BP: No, but remember this, Tim: Sometimes the value of my analysis is commensurate with what I'm charging you for it.
Mark Sanchez coming through in the clutch
January, 21, 2011
1/21/11
11:30
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By Tim Graham | ESPN.com
AP Photo/Winslow TownsonAlthough he's nearing the end of just his second pro season, Mark Sanchez has already tied the NFL record for road playoff victories.The reality, however, is that Sanchez has made it to the AFC Championship Game in each of his first two seasons with the New York Jets. He turned 24 years old in November, yet he already has tied the NFL record for road playoff victories.
Mediocre quarterbacks don't do that.
Clutch quarterbacks do.
"He's just one of those kids that has 'it,'" Jets backup quarterback Mark Brunell said, "and whatever 'it' may be is the ability to make the play that needs to be made -- clutch."
Sanchez's detractors don't see anything special, but among others, he's developing a reputation as one of those rare quarterbacks who excels in difficult spots. He can erase doubt Sunday by advancing to the Super Bowl with a victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers and one of the NFL's few established clutch quarterbacks, Ben Roethlisberger.
Like art, the concept of "clutch" is difficult to define, but you know it when you see it. Clutch performers execute when consequences escalate. Joe Montana was clutch. Michael Jordan was clutch. Tiger Woods, Reggie Jackson, Patrick Roy -- all clutch.
Sanchez isn't remotely near that echelon, but some expert observers claim he's getting there.
"It seems like it," Miami Dolphins consultant and two-time Super Bowl champion coach Bill Parcells said. "He's in his embryonic stage. So time will tell, but he's certainly showing some of the characteristics that are vital to that type of player.
"Sometimes with these quarterbacks it's not always pretty. But it becomes efficient."
Sanchez's numbers don't shriek competence. He ranked 25th in passer rating. Only three qualifying passers averaged fewer yards per attempt. Two completed a lower percentage of throws.
But over Sanchez's past 20 games, including the playoffs, he has directed five fourth-quarter comebacks and two more winning drives when the score was tied in the fourth quarter. Two of those victories were back-to-back on the road and in sudden death -- something that never before had happened.
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Jonathan Daniel/Getty ImagesSanchez's 18-yard strike to Braylon Edwards set up the game-winning field goal against the Colts in the wild-card round.
Jonathan Daniel/Getty ImagesSanchez's 18-yard strike to Braylon Edwards set up the game-winning field goal against the Colts in the wild-card round.Clutch? You betcha.
"Sanchez qualifies in the discussion for sure," noted quarterback guru Sam Wyche said. "Their record and the fact they have prevailed in this single-elimination tournament tells me he's had some clutch plays in 2010. There's no way a quarterback can be off much and get this far in the playoffs."
Wyche knows a little about clutch. He was the San Francisco 49ers' passing game coordinator for Montana's first four NFL seasons. Wyche later watched from the Cincinnati Bengals sideline when Montana orchestrated one of the most sublime clutch drives of all time to win Super Bowl XXIII.
Wyche explained clutch as a combination of attributes a quarterback must possess when the margin for error is skinniest. The quarterback must be poised, have the rules mastered, be mindful of field position, be skilled at clock management and be in command of his teammates.
"Clutch means making quicker decisions, generally unforgiving decisions," Wyche said. "You're at the end of the game. You don't have the second half to come back and rebound.
"In a time squeeze with two options -- throw the ball away or try to get it into a tight hole -- who makes the right decision?"
Another clutch quality is raising the performance level when it's essential.
Sanchez's 2010 regular-season stats were ordinary, and in many cases below average. He completed 54.8 percent of his throws, averaged 6.6 yards per attempt and tossed 17 touchdowns with 13 interceptions. His passer rating was 75.3, lower than Chad Henne's. The Dolphins benched Henne twice because of lackluster play.
A look at Sanchez's effectiveness in key situations indicates an even shakier quarterback. Among those who threw at least 10 times in the regular season, ESPN Stats & Information showed, Sanchez's passer rating was 48th in the fourth quarter and overtime, 38th on third down and 27th in the red zone.
But in Sanchez's five career playoff games, he has completed 60.5 percent of his throws, is averaging 7.4 yards per attempt and has seven touchdowns with three interceptions.
His 92.2 career postseason passer rating -- accumulated entirely on the road -- is 22.0 points higher than his regular-season rating.
Jets head coach Rex Ryan said that when it comes to being clutch "you either have it or you don't" and that Sanchez probably had it as a kid, regardless of the sport he tried "because the great ones, the competitors, find ways to win, and I think Mark is that kind of guy."
Back in November, with the Jets on a death-defying win streak, Ryan was asked about Sanchez's success. The Jets notched consecutive overtime road victories and a miracle against the Houston Texans at the Meadowlands, where Sanchez drove the Jets 72 yards for the winning touchdown in just 45 seconds. Sanchez delivered a dazzling 42-yard strike to Edwards along the right sideline and a perfect 6-yard toss to Santonio Holmes in the left corner of the end zone one play later.
[+] Enlarge
Jim Rogash/Getty ImagesMark Sanchez's 92.2 career postseason passer rating is 22.0 points higher than his regular-season rating.
Jim Rogash/Getty ImagesMark Sanchez's 92.2 career postseason passer rating is 22.0 points higher than his regular-season rating.The Steelers have one of those quarterbacks, too.
Roethlisberger owns two Super Bowl rings and has delivered 19 fourth-quarter comebacks and 25 winning drives over his career, according to ProFootballReference.com data. Three of them happened in the postseason, including that famous dart to a toe-dragging Holmes in Super Bowl XLIII.
Wyche compared Roethlisberger to Montana, whom the NFL Network named the No. 1 clutch quarterback of all time.
"This guy has the same kind of good fortune in the game," Wyche said. "He seems to zig when he's supposed to zig and doesn't zag. He seems to be able to throw the ball away or maybe get a great run out of his running back, and the players around him perform because they have the confidence that he's going to perform.
"He's just got that quality. It's a charisma thing, and you don't bet against it very often."
Sanchez already has beaten Roethlisberger head-to-head at Heinz Field this year. Roethlisberger posted better passing numbers, but Sanchez ran a fourth-down bootleg 7 yards for a touchdown.
No matter the outcome Sunday night, Sanchez should be considered one of the NFL's future stars. A 24-year-old doesn't advance this far twice in a row by accident.
"He's not mentioned in the same sentences as Peyton Manning or Tom Brady," Brunell said. "He doesn't have those numbers yet. He doesn't have a Super Bowl ring. But all indications are that he's going to be an elite quarterback someday, who will have those numbers and be mentioned with all those top guys like Drew Brees.
"He'll be there. For a guy in only his second year, it's pretty dang impressive what he's accomplished."
Reggie Jackson slams Jets for smack talk
January, 13, 2011
1/13/11
9:25
PM ET
By Tim Graham | ESPN.com
The man who once called himself "the straw that stirs the drink" in the Bronx is advising the New York Jets to chill out.
New York Yankees legend Reggie Jackson thinks the Jets should shut up and concentrate on getting ready for Sunday's playoff game against the New England Patriots.
Jackson actually called in to ESPN 1050 host Michael Kay's show
Thursday specifically to blast the Jets for calling out Tom Brady and Bill Belichick. Jackson said it's as absurd as insulting Sandy Koufax or Tom Seaver or Jack Nicklaus before playing them.
"What are you talking about? What are you doing? Shut up! Play football!" Jackson said.
Jackson, a Baseball Hall of Famer, played football at Arizona State before switching full-time to the diamond.
He was particularly agitated by Jets cornerback Antonio Cromartie calling Patriots Brady an "ass----" and Jets head coach Rex Ryan for making fun of Brady. Ryan jabbed Brady for seeing the Broadway play "Lombardi" on Saturday night instead of watching the Jets beat the Indianapolis Colts.
Kay asked Jackson if he ever talked smack to an opponent.
"For what?" Jackson replied incredulously. "So that Don Sutton or Tom Seaver or Jerry Koosman or somebody would bear down harder on me? They're tough enough! And what's that make me? It makes me a fool.
"There are only two guys that made predictions. One guy did it every week that he fought in the '60s, and that was Ali, and he was real. He truly was the greatest. The other guy made one prediction in his career. It was a fluke, and it worked: Joe Namath.
"The greatest players in history, Woods, Nicklaus -- name all the greats -- Jimmy Brown, Johnny Unitas, Montana. They don't run their mouth. The wannabes, the imitations do."
Jackson admitted he generally gets a kick out of Ryan, but Mr. October scolded Cromartie like a Mr. December.
"Go look at the hardware, dude," Jackson said of the Patriots' success. "Walk through the lobby up there and look at the stuff that's there. You don't have that. You don't have anything close to it.
"Shut up. You might learn something. Read. You might figure something out. Watch film. You might get educated. If not, you got a chance to get embarrassed on Sunday. I hope you don't because I like the Jets."
Jackson later added: "You don't know what he's talking about because you've never won. So don't tell me how he thinks. You don't know. Acknowledge that. That's not my opinion. That's fact."
I can't wait to hear what Mike Richter has to say about all this.
New York Yankees legend Reggie Jackson thinks the Jets should shut up and concentrate on getting ready for Sunday's playoff game against the New England Patriots.
Jackson actually called in to ESPN 1050 host Michael Kay's show
"What are you talking about? What are you doing? Shut up! Play football!" Jackson said.
Jackson, a Baseball Hall of Famer, played football at Arizona State before switching full-time to the diamond.
He was particularly agitated by Jets cornerback Antonio Cromartie calling Patriots Brady an "ass----" and Jets head coach Rex Ryan for making fun of Brady. Ryan jabbed Brady for seeing the Broadway play "Lombardi" on Saturday night instead of watching the Jets beat the Indianapolis Colts.
Kay asked Jackson if he ever talked smack to an opponent.
"For what?" Jackson replied incredulously. "So that Don Sutton or Tom Seaver or Jerry Koosman or somebody would bear down harder on me? They're tough enough! And what's that make me? It makes me a fool.
"There are only two guys that made predictions. One guy did it every week that he fought in the '60s, and that was Ali, and he was real. He truly was the greatest. The other guy made one prediction in his career. It was a fluke, and it worked: Joe Namath.
"The greatest players in history, Woods, Nicklaus -- name all the greats -- Jimmy Brown, Johnny Unitas, Montana. They don't run their mouth. The wannabes, the imitations do."
Jackson admitted he generally gets a kick out of Ryan, but Mr. October scolded Cromartie like a Mr. December.
"Go look at the hardware, dude," Jackson said of the Patriots' success. "Walk through the lobby up there and look at the stuff that's there. You don't have that. You don't have anything close to it.
"Shut up. You might learn something. Read. You might figure something out. Watch film. You might get educated. If not, you got a chance to get embarrassed on Sunday. I hope you don't because I like the Jets."
Jackson later added: "You don't know what he's talking about because you've never won. So don't tell me how he thinks. You don't know. Acknowledge that. That's not my opinion. That's fact."
I can't wait to hear what Mike Richter has to say about all this.
Rare err: Tom Brady INTs a limited edition
December, 30, 2010
12/30/10
4:25
PM ET
By Tim Graham | ESPN.com
Jim Rogash/Getty ImagesTom Brady, left, has gone a remarkable 319 attempts without an interception this season."That's ... That's ... That's ... That's something else," Baltimore Ravens cornerback Chris Carr said.
Buffalo Bills quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick found the number "mind-boggling," and he owns a Harvard economics degree.
"It's ... I mean," Miami Dolphins coach Tony Sparano said before a contemplative pause to gather his thoughts. "It blows my mind a little bit, to be honest with you."
New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady has thrown four interceptions this year. He hasn't misfired once since Oct. 17, a record span of 319 attempts and counting.
Brady has been the ultimate mistake minimalist. With one game left in a phenomenal season, he could finish with the lowest interception percentage of any quarterback to start more than 10 games.
"Even the best quarterbacks have something they give away," New York Jets safety Brodney Pool said. "He really doesn't. It's hard for opposing DBs to get a clue. He's very smart. He knows where to go with the ball and knows the weaknesses of the coverages.
"You can try to hold a coverage, but even if you trick him one time he'll come back the next time and you won't know what hit you."
Brady has a 0.84 interception percentage. The NFL record of 0.41 was set by former Brady backup Damon Huard with the Kansas City Chiefs in 2006. Huard threw one interception, but that was with 10 starts and only 244 attempts.


Pool and Carr comprise half the membership of the exclusive "I Intercepted Brady In 2010 Club." Also in are Jets cornerback Antonio Cromartie and former Ravens safety Ken Hamlin, now of the Indianapolis Colts.


"You know what?" Pool admitted. "I thought about that after the game: 'Man, that was Tom Brady. That's pretty special.' I should've kept it."
That baby was a limited edition.
"I don't keep any balls," Carr said. "A ball is a ball to me. It probably would end up lost in my house, laying around somewhere."
That's right. Carr's chances of losing that ball -- even with nobody trying to steal it -- probably would be higher than Brady's.
"Sport Science" examined the likelihood of a quarterback not throwing an interception in 319 straight attempts.
Since Brady's last interception, quarterbacks around the league have thrown 296 of them, 2.9 percent of all attempts. Based on those averages, the chances of dodging an interception on 319 straight throws would be 0.00837 percent -- or one in 11,947.
Math is one thing. Where a fellow quarterback such as Fitzpatrick or an opposing coach like Sparano has comprehension problems is when they consider how Brady has skirted all those happenstances that cause interceptions.
A tip, a bobble, a defender hitting the quarterback's arm as he throws, a receiver falling down, a badly gripped football in the snow, a wind gust altering trajectory just enough ...
Brady's season is even more incredible when considering the Patriots receivers are second only to the Detroit Lions in drops this year. ESPN Stats & Information has charted 36 drops for the Patriots and a league-worst 11 for Wes Welker.
"A tipped ball has haunted us three or four times this season in different ways, whether it's just fluttering up in the air or lands on the ground," Sparano said. "To think that not one of those -- not one of those things -- is happening in 300-plus attempts is pretty impressive."
Most of the four interceptions Brady did throw weren't his fault. Three of them were deep balls. Two were long passes to Randy Moss, who's no longer on the team. Moss twice tipped the ball into the air before Pool swooped in and made a tippy-toe grab at the sideline. The play originally was ruled incomplete and overturned on video review.
Hamlin fielded Brady's last interception, a Hail Mary skyball that sailed 48 yards through the air and into the end zone on the last play before overtime against the Ravens.
Since that play, Brady has completed 65 percent of his passes for 2,536 yards and 24 touchdowns.
Carr stressed that interception-avoidance isn't about luck with Brady. He's a great quarterback within a proficient offensive structure. The Patriots often have a lead and rarely play from more than one score behind, erasing the need for Brady to force throws late in games.
"It's more quarterback than system," Carr said. "If you put any other quarterback in that system, he's not going to have that streak. You put Brady in any system and he's going to be successful."
Joe Montana threw at least seven interceptions each season he made 10 starts. Dan Marino never threw fewer than nine interceptions in any season he started at least 10 games.
John Elway had double-digit interceptions every year he played. Brett Favre threw a career-low seven interceptions once as a starter, but never fewer than 13 interceptions any other season.
Peyton Manning has a pair of four-interception games this year. Drew Brees has one also.
A search of Pro-Football-Reference.com turns up seven Hall of Fame quarterbacks with at least seven "quadriception" games on their ledgers since 1960. George Blanda had 18, Joe Namath 15 and Terry Bradshaw 12.
Brady owns five four-interception games.
Yet he's one game away from closing out a four-interception season.
Criminy, the Patriots' defense has returned that many interceptions for touchdowns this year.
"He doesn't stare down receivers like some quarterbacks do," Carr said. "He looks off receivers when he does throw the ball down the field. When the receiver's not there, he's going to throw the ball away. When it's time to take a sack, he's going to take a sack.
"He has confidence that 'Hey, if the throw's there I'm going to make it. If it's not, we're going to live to play another series, and we'll score then.' He takes what the defense gives him."
Brady hasn't thrown any interceptions on passes that traveled 10 yards or fewer in the air, ESPN Stats & Information notes. And before you dismiss that zero as unimpressive because those are higher-percentage throws, keep in mind Drew Brees has thrown 12 interceptions in this range. Eli Manning has thrown 13.
Brady has 358 passing attempts of 10 yards or shorter. Every quarterback with at least 115 attempts in this category has been intercepted.
Carr noted Brady didn't make a mistake on his interception, a deep pass over the middle to Welker. Carr said the Ravens tricked Brady by doing something unexpected.
But when asked to recount the play, Carr showed deference to Brady's and the Patriots' shrewdness. The Ravens might meet the Patriots again in the playoffs.
"I'm always thinking ahead," Carr said with a chuckle. "I know how smart Brady and them are. They'll read the article. Somebody in the organization will go back and watch the film and get a little bead on that. They're always looking for that advantage."
Jets at Patriots: Is it next Monday yet?
November, 29, 2010
11/29/10
10:58
AM ET
By Tim Graham | ESPN.com
Whatever apathy you might have for this week's "Monday Night Football" matchup between a pair of 3-7 teams, keep in mind how phenomenal next week's game should be.
Before the season began, the San Francisco 49ers versus the Arizona Cardinals sure looked like a quality, changing-of-the-guard kind of game for the NFC West. The division has turned out to be so awful, the winner will be one game out of first place.
Next week's game should make up for it.
The New York Jets will play the New England Patriots in Gillette Stadium in a game that could decide the AFC East title. They are tied for the NFL's best record at 9-2.
Bill Belichick versus Rex Ryan. Tom Brady versus Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie. Mark Sanchez, Santonio Holmes and Braylon Edwards versus a susceptible pass defense. Vince Wilfork versus Nick Mangold. Patriots fan favorite Danny Woodhead versus the team that dumped him.
Can't wait.
It will be only the fourth time two teams with 9-2 records or better have played on "Monday Night Football," the first time since 1990 and the first game that doesn't involve the Joe Montana-led San Francisco 49ers in Candlestick Park.
The Elias Sports Bureau noted other games:
1987, Chicago Bears (10-2) at 49ers (10-2)
1989, New York Giants (9-2) at 49ers (9-2)
1990, Giants (10-1) at 49ers (10-1)
Before the season began, the San Francisco 49ers versus the Arizona Cardinals sure looked like a quality, changing-of-the-guard kind of game for the NFC West. The division has turned out to be so awful, the winner will be one game out of first place.
Next week's game should make up for it.
The New York Jets will play the New England Patriots in Gillette Stadium in a game that could decide the AFC East title. They are tied for the NFL's best record at 9-2.
Bill Belichick versus Rex Ryan. Tom Brady versus Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie. Mark Sanchez, Santonio Holmes and Braylon Edwards versus a susceptible pass defense. Vince Wilfork versus Nick Mangold. Patriots fan favorite Danny Woodhead versus the team that dumped him.
Can't wait.
It will be only the fourth time two teams with 9-2 records or better have played on "Monday Night Football," the first time since 1990 and the first game that doesn't involve the Joe Montana-led San Francisco 49ers in Candlestick Park.
The Elias Sports Bureau noted other games:
1987, Chicago Bears (10-2) at 49ers (10-2)
1989, New York Giants (9-2) at 49ers (9-2)
1990, Giants (10-1) at 49ers (10-1)
Tom Brady generating MVP buzz already
September, 15, 2010
9/15/10
12:48
PM ET
By Tim Graham | ESPN.com
M-V-P! M-V-P! M-V-P!
The past week was a whirlwind for New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady.
He walked away from a car accident serious enough that a passenger in the other vehicle needed the Jaws of Life to be extracted Thursday morning. That night, he closed the deal on the NFL's richest contract. He led the Patriots to a convincing victory over the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday. Sports Illustrated selected him for his fifth cover, tying him with Joe Montana for the most appearances by an NFL player.
And then came Wednesday, when he received an honor that must've compelled him to call Gisele with the news.
NFC West blogger Mike Sando moved Brady five spots up the chart to No. 1 on the weekly MVP Watch.
Sando clearly has a crush on the Patriots. He also sits on ESPN.com's Power Rankings commission and listed the Patriots as the second-best team in the league on his ballot.
You can't argue with Brady's performance, though. He completed 25 of 35 passes for 258 yards and three touchdowns without an interception. As Sando noted, he was the only quarterback on opening weekend to have three TDs and no interceptions against a playoff team from last year.
If you'd like to rank the top MVP candidates, SportsNation composed a click-and-drag poll for you.
The past week was a whirlwind for New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady.
He walked away from a car accident serious enough that a passenger in the other vehicle needed the Jaws of Life to be extracted Thursday morning. That night, he closed the deal on the NFL's richest contract. He led the Patriots to a convincing victory over the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday. Sports Illustrated selected him for his fifth cover, tying him with Joe Montana for the most appearances by an NFL player.
And then came Wednesday, when he received an honor that must've compelled him to call Gisele with the news.
NFC West blogger Mike Sando moved Brady five spots up the chart to No. 1 on the weekly MVP Watch.
Sando clearly has a crush on the Patriots. He also sits on ESPN.com's Power Rankings commission and listed the Patriots as the second-best team in the league on his ballot.
You can't argue with Brady's performance, though. He completed 25 of 35 passes for 258 yards and three touchdowns without an interception. As Sando noted, he was the only quarterback on opening weekend to have three TDs and no interceptions against a playoff team from last year.
If you'd like to rank the top MVP candidates, SportsNation composed a click-and-drag poll for you.
Debating New York's 2014 Super Bowl bid
May, 20, 2010
5/20/10
12:15
PM ET
By Tim Graham and
John Clayton | ESPN.com
ESPN.com IllustrationThe idea of a Super Bowl in the Meadowlands will be a hot topic of discussion next week.Although Tampa and South Florida are competing against New York, offering warmer climates and positive experiences from past Super Bowls, the New York bid is the favorite. A Super Bowl in the new Meadowlands stadium that opens for the New York Giants and New York Jets this fall could help market unsold premium seats. Former NFL commissioner Pete Rozelle preferred warm-weather, neutral sites for the league's showcase event, but usually once a decade the league would steer a Super Bowl to a northern, cold-weather city with a domed stadium.
The thought of an open-air Super Bowl in February near Manhattan will be a hot topic next week. But should this bid receive such a warm reception? ESPN.com's John Clayton and Tim Graham debate the notion.
John Clayton: While we can get into the football problems of this bid in a bit, let's be blunt about two things. First, it's a bad idea.
Second, it's going to happen because a Super Bowl in New York would help with the economics of this new stadium. It's big business. When the choice is between cold, hard cash and being out in the cold, the cold-hard-cash side wins.
Where this idea leaves me chilled is how it affects the fans. I remember being at the NFC Championship Game at Lambeau Field a couple years ago, when the temperatures were below zero and the wind chill at times got to 30-below. I did a stand-up for television and almost got frostbite. The conditions were so cold that fans who bought two beers at a time and brought them to their seats had one beer frozen before they could take the first two sips of the beer in hand. I still remember how red Tom Coughlin's face was from being out in the freezing cold for three hours. And that was in January.
A conference championship game in the cold is acceptable because the home fans are used to the conditions. Imagine some San Diego fan flying east to see a Chargers Super Bowl in 2014, paying more than $1,000 a ticket and needing to spend more on warm clothing? That brings chills down my spine.
Tim Graham: Without a doubt, John, this is about rewarding teams that are able to get stunning new arenas built. Some $1.6 billion was spent to erect the new Meadowlands stadium, and the NFL knows the only way to encourage all of its franchises to pursue new stadiums or significant upgrades is to ramp up competition for Super Bowl bids.
You may view that as a carrot that should be jammed in the middle of Frosty's white, powdery face, but the game isn't about the 82,500 people who will be sitting in the elements. More than 106 million people watched the last Super Bowl and would have whether it was played in a dome, in the desert or on the International Space Station.
Even so, one of the competing bidders for the 2014 Super Bowl is South Florida. Miami Dolphins CEO Mike Dee admitted to me at the NFL owners meetings a couple of months back that the new Meadowlands stadium "is a state-of-the-art, beautiful, world-class facility. While it's an outdoor facility, it has a lot of interior club spaces and entertainment spaces for people to mill around. So it's not your conventional outdoor, northern facility." There are plans to heat the concourses and -- just in case -- to provide seat and hand warmers to everyone.
But I'm not too concerned with the fans who would attend the game.
Scant few of those lucky enough to afford the tickets or merely have access to them will care. Most go to the Super Bowl to witness an event. A Super Bowl in the New York area would qualify as a blockbuster.
JC: I'd rather refer to it as an "ice-blockbuster.'' But is a Super Bowl a three-hour event or a two-week celebration? One of the things Rozelle mandated in coming up with the Super Bowl was a level playing field for both teams. By level playing field, he meant having a warm-weather site that gave both teams a chance to succeed. For the fans, he wanted a quality event.
I'm sure he never fully envisioned how successful it would be as a corporate entity. The reason the Super Bowl isn't played a week after the championship game is because the league wants to give fans a full chance to get to the Super Bowl city, enjoy the festivities and have a memorable experience. If the Super Bowl is given to New York, I contend a lot of the high rollers will be in Tampa or South Florida, holding golf events during Super Bowl week and watching the game on television. We saw that at the Minnesota Super Bowl and the two in Detroit.
What if there is a big snowfall in the 2014 Super Bowl? To have this game qualify as a blockbuster, you might have to hire the "Ice Road Trucker" guys to get fans to the stadium.
TG: Now hold on a moment. Before you start breaking out Sir Ernest Shackleton references, the weather hasn't been that bad in New York.
The 2014 Super Bowl likely will be played Feb. 2. The Newark Star-Ledger listed the high and low temperatures for the past five years, and it has gotten above 45 three times and has gotten more than 1 degree below freezing once. So we're not talking arctic conditions here.
A level playing field is relative. Back in Rozelle's day, we didn't have a fraction of the technology that's used to maintain these amazing synthetic fields. We're not going to have a reprise of the 1975 Raiders-Steelers AFC Championship Game, where the field was a sheet of ice. And warmer locales aren't immune to weather problems. There was a downpour in South Florida three years ago.
As for the idea there won't be as much to do as in South Florida, Arizona or another warm destination, are you telling me there's no activity in New York? In addition to the usual array of diversions in the Big Apple, organizers plan to hold events at places such as Ellis Island, Liberty State Park and the Museum of Natural History.
Here's what Atlanta Falcons owner Arthur Blank said about the possibility of a Super Bowl in the Big Apple:
"You have to ask yourself, are people going to come for three or four or five days and deal with the elements? Are people prepared to come to New York and deal with cold weather? Without a Super Bowl, they do it now."
JC: Let's put things in perspective here. You made the decision to leave the warmth of South Florida in the past year to be embraced by the chill of Buffalo. You wanted to wear the heavy coat, gloves and snow boots. As you know, I'm a Pittsburgh guy who lives in Seattle, but I don't miss the snow. But let's move from the Weather Channel debate to the football field.
You would have to concede the on-field product for this game will be different in an outdoor venue in the East in February. More and more, the NFL is becoming a quarterback-driven league that excites its fans with passing offenses more than running offenses. You cover an AFC East that has two pure running teams -- the Jets and Dolphins -- who combined for 16 wins last season. I know the Jets made the AFC Championship Game, but the league is set up to reward passers, not runners. Peyton Manning beat the run-driven Dolphins even though he had the ball for only 15 minutes last season.
A Super Bowl in the cold would neutralize the passers, which would go against the trends in this league. About the only thing you can say definitively about having a cold-weather Super Bowl in New York is that Brett Favre won't have any part of it. He may decide to retire and unretire for a few more years, but he would never sign on for a season that ends in a New York open-air Super Bowl.
TG: I won't dispute the NFL is a quarterback-driven league and cold weather has a tendency to neutralize a pass attack. But if sterile conditions are so important to deciding a champion, then why aren't the games that determine who reaches the Super Bowl controlled?
If the 2007 NFC Championship Game isn't played in a minus-23 wind chill, maybe the Giants don't win in overtime and then ruin the New England Patriots' perfect season. The road to the Super Bowl has gone through Gillette Stadium and Heinz Field a few times over the past decade. Unless every playoff game is moved to a dome, weather can impact the tournament and, therefore, who wins it.
And let's not forget wintry elements have created some of the greatest memories in NFL history. The Ice Bowl in Green Bay, the Tuck Rule at Gillette, the Freezer Bowl in Cincinnati, the 1948 title game in a Philadelphia blizzard, the Sneaker Game at a frozen Polo Grounds. In baseball, the players skedaddle when it rains. But football players are supposed to slog through any conditions shy of lightning strikes.
The game is supposed to be played outside and in the elements. The Super Bowl can handle it.
JC: Now you are using the Brian Cushing defense by questioning every thing and every rule. Sure, the Super Bowl can handle a cold-weather game, but why should it? Obviously, it's the money, and that's why this vote is going to pass in favor of New York.
When it comes to Super Bowls, the games should be the memories, not the weather conditions. The best memories are the fourth-quarter comebacks. It's Joe Montana getting that last drive against Cincinnati. It's Tom Brady coming back and getting the game-winning, field goal drive against St. Louis. It's Eli Manning beating Brady with a late drive.
It's not Tim Graham jumping on a snow-blowing machine and doing spins. I give you your New York Super Bowl next Tuesday. Bundle up, big guy.
TG: I can guarantee the public overwhelmingly would prefer to watch me drive figure eights on a Zamboni than see you strolling South Beach in your shorts.
Sorry to bring up that mental picture when you conjured some dramatic Super Bowl imagery. Those sure were some fine moments, but you also have 44 years' worth of climate-controlled Super Bowls to draw on.
Who's to say similarly phenomenal memories wouldn't have taken place in the open air of a Northeast winter?

Everybody loves a good quarterback argument.
Here's a list that endeavors to provide a definitive answer to the following question, but probably will get folks yapping at each other: Who is the greatest Super Bowl quarterback of all time?
Cold, Hard Football Facts kingpin Kerry J. Byrne rolls out all the statistical data from the 20 quarterbacks who've played in more than one Super Bowl and ranks them purely on how they performed on the biggest stage.
Reputation doesn't matter one iota. That's why Jim Plunkett is slotted waaaaaaaaaaay ahead of John Elway.
Byrne breaks them down into four categories -- Legends, Champions, Cling-ons and Gimps -- and backs up the ranking, complete with a spreadsheet that lists all of their stats.
Legends
1. Joe Montana
2. Terry Bradshaw
3. Jim Plunkett
4. Troy Aikman
5. Bart Starr
Champions
6. Tom Brady
7. Brett Favre
8. Roger Staubach
9. Kurt Warner
10. Len Dawson
11. Peyton Manning
Cling-ons
12. Bob Griese
13. Ben Roethlisberger
14. John Elway
15. Joe Theismann
Gimps
16. Jim Kelly
17. Fran Tarkenton
18. John Unitas
19. Earl Morrall
20. Craig Morton
[+] Enlarge
MPS/US PresswireTom Brady is a two-time Super Bowl MVP -- but he hasn't reached legendary status yet, according to one analyst.
MPS/US PresswireTom Brady is a two-time Super Bowl MVP -- but he hasn't reached legendary status yet, according to one analyst.Cold, Hard Football Facts kingpin Kerry J. Byrne rolls out all the statistical data from the 20 quarterbacks who've played in more than one Super Bowl and ranks them purely on how they performed on the biggest stage.
Reputation doesn't matter one iota. That's why Jim Plunkett is slotted waaaaaaaaaaay ahead of John Elway.
Byrne breaks them down into four categories -- Legends, Champions, Cling-ons and Gimps -- and backs up the ranking, complete with a spreadsheet that lists all of their stats.
Legends
1. Joe Montana
2. Terry Bradshaw
3. Jim Plunkett
4. Troy Aikman
5. Bart Starr
Champions
6. Tom Brady
7. Brett Favre
8. Roger Staubach
9. Kurt Warner
10. Len Dawson
11. Peyton Manning
Cling-ons
12. Bob Griese
13. Ben Roethlisberger
14. John Elway
15. Joe Theismann
Gimps
16. Jim Kelly
17. Fran Tarkenton
18. John Unitas
19. Earl Morrall
20. Craig Morton
Brady still ahead of Manning in QB debate
February, 8, 2010
2/08/10
12:12
PM ET
By Tim Graham | ESPN.com
Getty ImagesColts quarterback Peyton Manning, with a loss in Super Bowl XLIV, is now 9-9 in the postseason while his New England counterpart, Tom Brady, is 14-4.Peyton Manning, meanwhile, evolved this season into the prototypical virtuoso, the symbol of great quarterbacking. Because the Indianapolis Colts removed him from both losses, it could be argued he didn't lose a game all year.
Manning was so sensational and Brady shaky enough at the start (while getting used to his rebuilt knee) and at the end (looking lost without Wes Welker and throwing three interceptions), the debate over the greatest quarterback of this generation -- perhaps of all-time -- had swung decisively in Manning's favor. He was better than Brady.
Until Sunday night.
Manning's legacy was tarnished in Super Bowl XLIV.
Late in the fourth quarter, he threw an interception New Orleans Saints cornerback Tracy Porter returned 74 yards for a backbreaking touchdown, the type of costly mistake Brady has avoided on the big stage. Manning also panicked in the final moments when the Colts had a shot to score and at least try an onside kick.
Manning's postseason record is 9-9, with 28 touchdowns and 19 interceptions. He is 1-1 in Super Bowls.
Brady's postseason record is 14-4, with 28 touchdowns and 15 interceptions. He has three Super Bowl rings.
Of course, the Patriots also lost a Super Bowl in which they were favored, failing to achieve perfection in 2007. But it wasn't Brady's fault. The New York Giants pulled off one of the great upsets in NFL history with Brady on the sidelines. He conducted a touchdown drive to give the Patriots a fourth-quarter lead then helplessly watched it disappear.
In the Super Bowl, Brady always rose to the occasion.
Manning failed to deliver Sunday night. The memory of Porter prancing into the end zone will last a long time.
"He had an opportunity to be in a Super Bowl; he doesn't win it," ESPN analyst and former NFL quarterback Tim Hasselbeck said. "Now, he looks human. He's not going to be able to go undefeated in Super Bowls, and certainly when you compare him to some of the all-time greats he doesn't have as many rings.
"No matter how many records he has or what the stats say or however he plays in the regular season, when you match up his postseason accomplishments against quarterbacks like Tom Brady, Joe Montana, it doesn't stack up."


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