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The scene at the AFC coaches' breakfast in Palm Beach, Fla., was fitting.

To my far left was New York Jets coach Rex Ryan. He was surrounded by a large group of media who wanted to know how the Jets would handle Tim Tebow-mania and whether they could bounce back from a disappointing 2011.

To my immediate left was new Miami Dolphins coach Joe Philbin. A throng of reporters wondered what the rookie head coach had in store for his first season.

On my right was future Hall of Fame coach Bill Belichick of the New England Patriots. He continually gave non-answers about his team as reporters tried to dig up something -- anything -- about the reigning AFC champions.

In the middle of this madness was Buffalo Bills coach Chan Gailey. His table was relatively empty for most of the hourlong breakfast, with the exception of a few passers-by and this AFC East blogger. Few in the national media cared to know what Gailey and the Bills were up to. They're a small-market team that finished 6-10 last season and hasn't been to the playoffs in 13 years.

But by this time next year, people will be talking about Buffalo. The Bills are my sleeper pick in 2012. Here are five reasons why Buffalo will get over the hump and finish with a winning record:

Reason No. 1: Bills made right moves in free agency

Analysis: I will give myself a pat on the back. I was one of the first to note Buffalo's interest in two-time Pro Bowl defensive end Mario Williams. Despite my prediction, I did not think Buffalo would be able to land the top defensive free agent on the market. But the Bills put on the full-court press and gave Williams 100 million reasons to join them. Buffalo gained an elite pass-rusher and its first game-changer on defense.

The Bills didn't stop there. They continued to improve their anemic pass-rush by signing former Patriots defensive end Mark Anderson, who recorded 10 sacks last season. Williams, Anderson and defensive tackles Kyle Williams and Marcell Dareus make up one of the top defensive lines in the NFL. It's a group who can stop the run and get push up the middle while attacking the edges and pressuring the quarterback. Buffalo's talented front four will be a problem for a lot of teams next season.

The Bills also retained their own key free agents. Buffalo re-signed No. 1 receiver Steve Johnson at an affordable rate and starting tight end Scott Chandler.

There are still a few more holes Buffalo would like to fill, but the team is one of the biggest winners in free agency.

Reason No. 2: Double trouble at running back

Analysis: When they are healthy, there may not be a more dynamic running back duo in the NFL than Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller. These two will be headaches for opposing defenses once Buffalo figures out how to blend both into the offense simultaneously. Jackson and Spiller could complement each other well.

Buffalo's coaching staff admittedly did a poor job of balancing the two tailbacks last season. Jackson received a bulk of the carries when healthy, and Spiller finally showed what he could do at the end of the season once Jackson was injured. Now, both are hungry and want the football. Gailey called it "a great problem to have."

Jackson is 31 and coming off a season-ending leg injury. That should open the door for Spiller to get more carries. Will it be a 50-50 split? Probably not. But the Buffalo offense will be dangerous if it can use Spiller and Jackson enough to keep each fresh and productive the entire season.

Reason No. 3: AFC East is weakening

Analysis: A case can be made that the AFC East became a weaker division this offseason. The division wasn't strong to begin with; only the Patriots finished with a winning record in 2011. But the 6-10 Dolphins gutted their roster, getting rid of top players such as Pro Bowl receiver Brandon Marshall and leading tackler and starting safety Yeremiah Bell. Miami also failed to land a franchise quarterback and settled on 34-year-old David Garrard as the potential starter next season. It's early, but it's hard to imagine Miami's finishing with a better record than last season.

Meanwhile, the Jets are an aging team with chemistry issues. New York gave embattled quarterback Mark Sanchez a three-year contract extension and then traded for popular backup Tebow, setting up a potentially explosive situation. The Jets will be on a year-long implosion watch, and their arrow could be trending downward after last season's mediocre 8-8 finish.

The Jets, Dolphins and Bills are all chasing the Patriots, who are clearly the favorites in the division. But the Bills, who split with New England last season, did a solid job to make up some ground.

Reason No. 4: Players are getting healthy

Analysis: I usually try to avoid the injury excuse, because every team has them, but it legitimately applies to the Bills. Buffalo suffered key injures last season at running back (Jackson), defensive tackle (Kyle Williams), linebacker (Shawne Merriman), offensive line (Eric Wood), receiver (Donald Jones) and kicker (Rian Lindell), just to name a few. Bills starting quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick played much of the season with a painful rib injury. By the second half of the season, the Bills didn't have anywhere near the same depth they had during their 4-1 start.

Most of these players are expected to be back and healthy in 2012. Merriman is perhaps the biggest question mark after his second season-ending Achilles injury. But chances are slim that Buffalo will be hit this hard with injuries again. Health will be key for Buffalo to maintain a successful run over 16 games.

Reason No. 5: Bills have a top-10 pick

Analysis: The Bills have had a productive offseason, but they aren't done yet. They still have a top-10 pick in this month's NFL draft. This is a great opportunity for Buffalo to plug more holes on the roster. The Bills could use a starting-caliber left tackle, another threat at receiver, a cover corner and depth at linebacker.

The Bills also have more than $9 million in cap room to spend. Don't rule out late signings in free agency. After years of not spending to the cap, Buffalo tabbed 2012 as the year to make a push.

All of these reasons make the Bills my ideal sleeper pick for next season. Don't forget that you heard it here first.

Here are the most interesting stories Friday morning in the AFC East:

• Have the Buffalo Bills shifted the division landscape?

Morning take: I'm not ready to go that far, but the Bills have done a good job this offseason. They signed some good players (Mario Williams, Mark Anderson) and also get good players back from injury (Fred Jackson, Kyle Williams). But let's see what other additions Buffalo makes in the draft and free agency.

• New York Jets coach Rex Ryan is already getting a taste of Tim Tebow-mania.

Morning take: I don't think Ryan will have a problem handling the immense hype that comes with Tebow. It's more of an issue with the Jets' locker room, which couldn't stay together last year.

• What is up with Miami Dolphins left tackle Jake Long's contract extension?

Morning take: You can't re-sign Long coming off a season-ending biceps injury. The Dolphins are doing the right thing by letting the year play out to make sure he's healthy and productive.

• The New England Patriots add fullback Spencer Larsen.

Morning take: Larsen adds versatility to the backfield, which is needed. The Patriots rarely use a fullback, but Larsen can fill that need and run the football a little.

The Buffalo Bills' already stout defensive line just got even better.

Buffalo signed former New England Patriots defensive end Mark Anderson to a four-year contract Wednesday. Anderson joins fellow defensive end Mario Williams and defensive tackles Kyle Williams and Marcell Dareus on Buffalo's defensive line.

The Bills had trouble getting to the quarterback last season and made it a point to put their resources toward fixing the issue. Anderson recorded 10 sacks for the Patriots last season. Williams has 59 career sacks and is one of the NFL's best pass-rushers. Consider the problem solved.

Buffalo's defensive line is looking downright scary. The group will be very tough to move in the middle and pass protect against on the edges.

The Anderson signing also hurts the reigning AFC East champion Patriots. New England lost last season's team leader in sacks to a division rival. The Patriots are looking to add pass-rushers, not lose them.

For the first time in a long time, Buffalo is spending big money and making moves in free agency. Bills general manager Buddy Nix said the team will be major players this offseason, and Nix continues to prove it.

Now it's time to take the Buffalo Bills seriously in the AFC East.

The last-place Bills, who finished 6-10 in 2011, signed the best player in free agency not named Peyton Manning on Thursday. Buffalo agreed to a whopping six-year, $100 million contract with two-time Pro Bowl defensive end Mario Williams. The contract also includes $50 million guaranteed.

Buffalo general manager Buddy Nix said the traditionally frugal Bills would spend this year in free agency -- and he wasn't kidding. Williams just became the highest-paid player in franchise history.

This is not just a great move for Buffalo. It's potentially a game-changer and home run for this rebuilding franchise, which hasn't made the playoffs since 1999 and hasn't won a playoff game since 1995. Buffalo had a long way to climb to catch the reigning AFC champion New England Patriots in the division. Williams moves the Bills closer to contention.

The trio of Williams, Marcell Dareus and a healthy Kyle Williams gives Buffalo one of the league's most dominant defensive lines. It's a lot easier to win games when you're controlling the line of scrimmage.

Mario Williams, who has 53 sacks in six seasons, brings a much-needed pass rush to Buffalo's new 4-3 defense. Dareus and Kyle Williams are stout, and will make it hard for opponents to run up the middle. This is a bad day in general for quarterbacks and offensive linemen in the AFC East.

With the Patriots and New York Jets relatively quiet so far, and the Miami Dolphins trading away their best player (Brandon Marshall) and possibly falling behind in the Manning sweepstakes, the Bills made up ground with one humongous signing.

How far can Williams take Buffalo next season? It's too early to say. Williams is a huge cog, but questions still remain on the roster.

Can the Bills find a shutdown cornerback? Can they get a left tackle to protect quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick? Can Buffalo add another receiver to complement Steve Johnson? The draft and the remainder of free agency are important to fill these needs. Buffalo also needs to stay healthy next season.

But the Bills accomplished priority No. 1 this offseason. They needed someone who can get to the quarterback, and landed the top pass-rusher on the market.

That makes Buffalo one of the early winners in free agency.

Two of four teams in the AFC East are switching to 4-3 defenses in 2012. The Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins have new defensive coordinators in Dave Wannstedt and Kevin Coyle, respectively. Both coaches will spend the offseason implementing their new scheme.

But is it a wise move for the Bills and Dolphins? Here are a few thoughts:

• For starters, I think it's very smart for the Bills to move to a 4-3. This has been suggested for a while. Whether it was coaching or personnel, the 3-4 simply didn't work in Buffalo. Wannstedt is a 4-3 coach and will run the scheme he's most comfortable with. The Bills also have 4-3 personnel already on the roster, starting with bookend defensive tackles Kyle Williams and Marcell Dareus.
• But the Bills still need to find their pass rush. If they can't get to the quarterback, it doesn't matter what scheme Buffalo plays. Usually in a 4-3 scheme, the pass rush comes from the defensive ends. The Bills don't really have any pass-rushing ends. Look for Buffalo to focus on that in the draft and free agency.
• I have more mixed feelings about Miami's switch. The Dolphins' defense wasn't broken, far from it. It's been very good the past couple of years and I'm not sure there was a need for change. Switching to a 4-3 could mess with continuity. I like the Coyle hire. But he's going to have some work on his hands changing the dynamics of a veteran defense.
• The biggest worry for Miami is that its run defense could suffer. The Dolphins were air-tight against the run most weeks. Players were disciplined and stayed in their gaps. But responsibilities will change in a 4-3 scheme, which will be an adjustment. You also wonder if Miami will have the two stout defensive tackles next season to plug the middle. Miami's best defensive tackle, Paul Soliai, is an unrestricted free agent and not expected to return.

Here are the most interesting stories Wednesday morning in the AFC East:

• New York Giants coach Tom Coughlin and New England Patriots coach Bill Belichick are both disciples of Bill Parcells. So who is Parcells rooting for?

Morning take: Click the link to find out. We’re not giving it away.

• Are the Miami Dolphins dissing starting quarterback Matt Moore?

Morning take: I do find it kind of harsh the way ownership, the front office and star receiver Brandon Marshall have all sternly pointed out the team needs a franchise quarterback. What they're all saying is true. But they should leave that to the media to say publicly.

• New York Jets quarterback Mark Sanchez is staying away from Super Bowl XLVI.

Morning take: This is a good idea for Sanchez after the Jets' late-season collapse. That's all anyone wants to talk about right now, and it's best for Sanchez to just lay low.

• Here is more on the Buffalo Bills' new 4-3 defense.

Morning take: This is the right move for Buffalo because it builds a defense around its two best players: Marcell Dareus and Kyle Williams. Both will be a problem to handle.

Here are the most interesting stories Tuesday morning in the AFC East:

• New York Giants quarterback Eli Manning says Jets quarterback Mark Sanchez gets too much blame.

Morning take: I think there is a case to be made here. But Manning knows better than anyone that expectations are always high in the Big Apple. Sanchez can learn from Manning’s perseverance and try to bounce back next season.

• After much debate, Buffalo Bills head coach Chan Gailey confirms the team is switching to a 4-3 defense.

Morning take: This is a smart move by Buffalo. The Bills' two best defensive players are Kyle Williams and Marcell Dareus -- and both are natural defensive tackles.

• Can the Miami Dolphins afford to keep Paul Soliai in free agency?

Morning take: I think Miami is leaning toward letting Soliai walk. He's a good player. But Miami had more than a year to work out a long-term contract and couldn't. I don't think anything changes in the next month.

• New England Patriots cornerback (and part-time safety ) Devin McCourty says the defense needs to keep believing in the Super Bowl.

Morning take: This much-maligned group is getting little credit for allowing just 15 points per game in the playoffs. But New England's defense can earn its respect by holding down the New York Giants' talented offense.

Here are the most interesting stories Tuesday morning in the AFC East:

• If the Miami Dolphins can’t draft a quarterback, where should they go with the No. 8 or No. 9 pick?

Morning take: If the team doesn’t trade up for a quarterback, I think Miami has the luxury to take the best available player. It can come at right tackle, receiver, or safety among others positions.

• Former New England Patriots receiver Troy Brown says these Patriots are different.

Morning take: New England does have a different look about the team in the playoffs. According to this ESPN readers' poll, the Patriots are now the Super Bowl favorites. Agree or disagree?

• New York Giants quarterback Eli Manning joked that it would be fun to have brother Peyton Manning on the neighboring New York Jets.

Morning take: New York is the one city big enough to handle both Mannings. But at this point Peyton Manning landing with the Jets doesn’t seem likely.

• Buffalo Bills defensive tackle Marcell Dareus made the NFL all-rookie team.

Morning take: Dareus had a solid first season and will only get better. Dareus probably will move back to defensive end once former Pro Bowl nose tackle Kyle Williams returns.

If the season ended today, the Buffalo Bills (5-7) would have the No. 13 overall pick in next year's NFL draft.

So what direction should the Bills go in the first round?

Buffalo should focus on the defensive side of the football. You don't want to peg a team this early, especially since Buffalo could use upgrades in several areas. But I have a hard time seeing the Bills ignoring their defense early in the draft. Their 3-4 scheme hasn't worked all year. The Bills can't stop the run consistently or rush the passer.

I think the defensive line will be fine. Buffalo spent the No. 3 overall pick on Marcell Dareus last year and will have former Pro Bowler Kyle Williams returning from injury. What I think the Bills need most is an impact outside linebacker. Someone who can get to the quarterback and be a difference-maker against the run. Buffalo thought Shawne Merriman could return to form and still be that player, and that hasn't been the case.

The problem is finding a 3-4 outside linebacker always is a challenge. Often teams project college defensive ends to make the switch, which can be hit or miss. See Aaron Maybin in Buffalo.

Another option is to upgrade Buffalo's secondary. The Bills don't have a lot of impact players on the back end. I think they're OK but not great at corner, although former first-round pick Leodis McKelvin has been a disappointment. The Bills like 2011 second-round pick Aaron Williams and have high hopes for him. The team also could look at safety. I like George Wilson and Jairus Byrd. Wilson was having perhaps the best year of his career until his recent injury and Byrd makes plays but also has been hurt. If Buffalo targets another safety, perhaps Alabama's Mark Barron, to pair with one of those players or add depth next year, it might work.

A dark-horse option could be Okalahoma State wide receiver Justin Blackmon. Buffalo's top receiver -- Steve Johnson -- will be an unrestricted free agent after the season. It is not a lock that Johnson returns, and that could leave a big void in the passing game. The Bills just gave quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick a $59 million extension and want to make sure he has enough weapons around him. If Buffalo doesn't want to use the franchise tag on Johnson and can't agree on a long-term contract, wide receiver could suddenly be a target.

The Bills are at No. 13 now, but there is a chance Buffalo finishes with a top-10 pick by season's end. They have lost five in a row and will be underdogs in most of their remaining games.

Here is Buffalo's schedule:

• Dec. 11: at San Diego (5-7)
• Dec. 18: vs. Miami (4-8)
• Dec. 24: vs. Denver (7-5)
• Jan. 1: at New England (9-3)

How do you feel about your head coach this week?

Let's take a look at ESPN.com's latest coach approval ratings.

Bill Belichick, New England Patriots

Record: 9-3

Approval rating: 89 percent

Analysis: Belichick is near the top, as usual. His Patriots are cruising and have won four games in a row. New England's biggest challenge is not letting up in the final month. Teams like the Miami Dolphins (4-8) and Denver Broncos (7-5) are playing well enough to be a threat to New England. The Patriots are trying to secure home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.

Tony Sparano, Miami Dolphins

Record: 4-8

Approval rating: 83 percent

Analysis: Wow! I was shocked when I saw Sparano's approval rating Wednesday. Sparano continually stayed near the bottom most of this season after a 0-7 start. His approval rating some weeks were in the teens. Now, after going 4-1 in the past five games, 83 percent of Dolphins fans in this poll are behind him? That's very fickle of Miami fans who voted this week. Sparano is doing great work in the past month or so. But he's still 4-8 overall. Ownership will consider this recent run but also has to look at Sparano's entire body of work at the end of the season.

Rex Ryan, New York Jets

Record: 7-5

Approval rating: 47 percent

Analysis: I've made it clear many times that I like Ryan as a head coach. He's very good at Xs and Os and players love playing for him. Those are two huge ingredients that Ryan has. But I think his approval rating shows that Jets fans want less guarantees and more results. If anything, Ryan boasted too much about this year's team, which has drastically under-produced. New York still has a chance for the playoffs, but it's going to take a lot of work and some help from other teams down the stretch.

Chan Gailey, Buffalo Bills

Record: 5-7

Approval rating: 28 percent

Analysis: Gailey's approval rating is at a season-low after Buffalo suffered its fifth straight loss last week to the Tennessee Titans. The Bills started fast but have come apart. But I don't put a majority of the blame on Gailey. The defense has failed him all year, as well as injuries to key players like Fred Jackson, Shawne Merriman and Kyle Williams.

Here are the most interesting stories Wednesday morning in the AFC East:

• Former Dolphins draft pick John Beck will make his return to Miami as the Washington Redskins starting quarterback.

Morning take: Beck was once considered the future quarterback of the Dolphins. But that didn't work out. Now, Beck has a chance to show his former team that he's an improved players.

• Is Bill Belichick's talent evaluation the reason the New England Patriots are struggling on defense?

Morning take: Yes, this article is exactly right. Missed draft picks have prevented New England from replenishing defensive talent that was lost from its glory years. The ceiling for this unit just isn’t very high.

• Guess who has the most penalties this season for the New York Jets?

Morning take: If you guessed cornerback Antonio Cromartie, you guessed right. “Cro” has six penalties in eight games. The Jets hope that number decreases in the second half of the season.

• What's next for Buffalo Bills defensive tackle Kyle Williams?

Morning take: Now that he's officially out for the season, Williams has to get the proper rehab and come back 100 percent next year. He's a great player, when healthy, and one building block in Buffalo's defense.

Here are the most interesting stories Tuesday morning in the AFC East:

• Jay Skurski of the Buffalo News reports Bills defensive lineman Kyle Williams (foot) is expected to miss the rest of the season and kicker Rian Lindell (shoulder) will miss 4-6 weeks.

Morning take: The Bills have been able to overcome injuries all season. But these two leaders will be hard to replace as Buffalo goes through a key stretch in its season.

• Gary Myers of the New York Daily News believes the Giants (6-2) are better than the Jets (5-3).

Morning take: The Giants have a better record and beat the Patriots, which is something the Jets haven’t done. But it’s a long season and plenty of football left to play.

• ESPN's Adam Schefter reports New England Patriots linebacker Brandon Spikes has a strained MCL.

Morning take: It’s strange that MCLs have been the injury of choice for New England. Tight end Aaron Hernandez and linebacker Jerod Mayo also missed time this season with the same injury.

• Miami Dolphins quarterback Chad Henne tells Ben Volin of the Palm Beach Post that he's "gung-ho" about being a Dolphin.

Morning take: That sounds nice. But Henne is going to be a free agent coming off season-ending shoulder surgery. Add in the fact a new head coach will take over, and it's virtually a certainty Miami will be looking for a new quarterback.

Here are the most interesting stories Friday morning in the AFC East:

• Jason La Canfora of the NFL Network reports Buffalo Bills defensive tackle Kyle Williams could land on injured reserve with a foot injury.

Morning take: Williams tried to play through the pain but wasn't the same player. According to the report, Williams will stay off his foot a few more weeks and then determine if he can play football again this season.

• Bart Hubbuch of the New York Post explains how the Jets (4-3) still can win the AFC East.

Morning take: Although not impossible, winning the division sounds like a stretch for New York. The Jets have a better chance competing with the Bills for second place and shooting for the wild card.

• Sherrod Blakely of Comcast Sports Net New England explains how the Patriots can contain Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger.

Morning take: Keeping Roethlisberger in the pocket and getting him down when you have the chance are key for New England. Roethlisberger is most dangerous when he can extend plays and continue to look downfield for big gains.

• Ben Volin of the Palm Beach Post writes Miami Dolphins players are taking exception to tailback Reggie Bush's comments that the team "stinks."

Morning take: I happen to applaud Bush for his honesty. His comments weren't popular in the locker room. But no one debates if Bush was telling the truth.

Here are the most interesting stories Thursday morning in the AFC East:

• Is Sunday's game against the San Diego Chargers (4-1) another must-win for the New York Jets (3-3)?

Morning take: I don’t think it's a must-win, but it's very important. The Jets cannot afford any more losing streaks this season if they want to make the playoffs.

• The Miami Dolphins have sold about 20,000 tickets since the Denver Broncos tabbed Tim Tebow as their starting quarterback.

Morning take: Tebow is very popular in Florida after his college stint with the Gators. This is probably the biggest storyline in this game. Sun Life Stadium hasn't been energized this year. So at least this puts people in the stands.

• Buffalo Bills defensive tackle Kyle Williams (foot) is expected to miss one or two more games.

Morning take: This is a tough loss for Buffalo, but it's the right move. Williams hasn't looked the same playing through his injury since training camp. The Bills need him at 100 percent.

• Here is the rookie report for the New England Patriots.

Morning take: First-round pick Nate Solder has done a good job in the starting lineup at offensive tackle. Third-rounder Stevan Ridley also has been a pleasant surprise at running back.

The upstart Buffalo Bills are 4-2 at the bye and in second place in the AFC East.

Here are three issues facing the team:

1. Can Buffalo's defense improve? The Bills have consistently allowed big plays on defense. Buffalo has given up 400 yards or more in five straight games. Most times, the Bills were able to get big turnovers to negate the high number of yards. But teams are studying film and catching onto that. The New York Giants were very careful protecting the football. New York didn't have any turnovers and registered 414 yards of offense. Buffalo's defense, which is ranked No. 31, needs to stop relying on the big turnover and work on beating the man in front of them.

2. Will the Bills get healthy? Buffalo has several key players ailing. Linebacker Shawne Merriman (Achilles), defensive tackle Kyle Williams (foot) and receiver Donald Jones (ankle) are among the starters the Bills hope to get back after the bye week. Williams and Merriman are two of the top playmakers on Buffalo's defense. Jones is the team's best deep threat on offense. Coming off the bye, the Bills will play the Washington Redskins in Toronto on Oct. 30. Buffalo is 1-1 against the NFC East and needs to be at full strength.

3. Is Fitzpatrick getting streaky? Buffalo Bills starting quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick hasn't played poorly the past three weeks. But he hasn't been the same quarterback who put himself in the early MVP race, either. Buffalo has lost two of its past three games. Fitzpatrick threw three touchdowns and three interceptions in that span. In his first three games, Fitzpatrick threw nine touchdowns and three interceptions. Fitzpatrick made a couple mistakes that were costly in the loss to the Giants. He's been hot and cold in the past. The Bills need to keep Fitzpatrick consistent for 16 games.