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Want to hear a crazy statistic?

New England Patriots receiver Wes Welker is on pace for 132 receptions, 1,920 yards and 12 touchdowns this season.

Whoa!

Enter Darrelle Revis of the New York Jets -- the best cornerback in the NFL. Revis mostly will be responsible for slowing down Welker, who leads the league in receiving. Jets head coach Rex Ryan used Revis a lot on Welker in the first game, which New England won, 30-21.

Round 1 went to Welker.

Now only New England get the win, but Welker had a good day. He caught five passes for 124 yards. Most of his yards came when he beat zone coverage by Revis and safety Eric Smith for a 73-yard reception. Outside of one big play, Welker had just four catches for 51 yards.

Expect New York to put even more emphasis on slowing Welker in the rematch. In the first meeting the Jets mixed it up with mostly Revis, but also some coverage by Kyle Wilson and Donald Strickland in the slot. I think New York should keep Revis on Welker on nearly every play and see if someone else for New England can beat the Jets.

It also helps that New England's offense has struggled lately. Surprisingly the Patriots haven't scored more than 20 points since Week 5.

Revis vs. Welker is one of the biggest chess matches to watch between the Jets and Patriots. The winner of Round 2 has a good chance to lead their team to victory and first place in the AFC East.

The bye weeks are complete in the AFC East. All four teams will be in action this weekend.

Here are four X factors to keep an eye on:

Buffalo Bills (5-2)

X factor: WR David Nelson

Analysis: Jets Pro Bowl cornerback Darrelle Revis could be matched up a lot this week with Bills No. 1 receiver Steve Johnson. That means other receivers, like Nelson, have to step up for Buffalo to be successful. Neslon could see a lot of Kyle Wilson in the slot. Both are among the most improved players in the AFC East this year. Nelson's battles in the slot will be crucial on third down. Bills quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick often looks over the middle to Nelson and tight end Scott Chandler to move the chains.

New York Jets (4-3)

X factor: C Nick Mangold

Analysis: The Jets are back to their ground-and-pound ways and at the center of it is Pro Bowl center Nick Mangold. It's no secret New York will try to control the line of scrimmage against the inconsistent Buffalo defense. But the Bills are coming off their best game of the season -- a 23-0 shutout against the Washington Redskins. Mangold has a tough assignment against Buffalo No. 3 overall pick Marcell Dareus, who recorded 2.5 sacks last week.

New England Patriots (5-2)

X factor: CB Devin McCourty

Analysis: It's time to McCourty to step up. New England's No. 1 corner hasn't made any significant plays this year. He has zero interceptions and only three pass defenses. McCourty is suffering from a major sophomore slump. He recorded eight interceptions as a rookie in 2010. The New York Giants had a solid passing game but No. 1 receiver Hakeem Nicks is ailing with a hamstring injury. McCourty has to win his matchup with Giants receivers for New England's pass defense to be successful.

Miami Dolphins (0-7)

X factor: RB Reggie Bush

Analysis: Bush produced his first 100-yard rushing game of the season against the Giants. He rushed for 103 yards on 15 carries. It helped Miami control the game for three quarters. The Dolphins will need control the clock with their running game again to have a chance to beat the Kansas City Chiefs (4-3) at Arrowhead Stadium. The Chiefs have the NFL's 22nd-ranked run defense. Miami, despite its many struggles, actually has an underrated running game. The Dolphins are 12th in the league in rushing.

Here are the most interesting stories Monday morning in the AFC East:

• How much is New England Patriots coach Bill Belichick to blame for the team's struggles on defense?

Morning take: New England still is a great team. But the defense has a lot of flaws and Belichick has been unable to fix it, despite his reputation as a defensive guru. Most of that falls on his desk.

• Miami Dolphins owner Stephen Ross says there will be no coaching change after Tony Sparano lost his 10th straight game dating to last season.

Morning take: Miami put forth a solid effort against the Giants. The Dolphins aren’t winning. But they proved the past two weeks they are not giving up on their head coach.

• The Buffalo Bills' nine sacks against the Washington Redskins were the most since 1964.

Morning take: Of all the great Super Bowl teams in the 1990s, none got to the quarterback like the Bills did Sunday. Buffalo’s defense has a lot of momentum going into next week’s game against the New York Jets.

• Speaking of the Jets, their recent drafts are still up for discussion.

Morning take: Obviously, a lot will hinge on the success of quarterback Mark Sanchez. The development of 2010 first-round pick Kyle Wilson also is another one to watch.

While yakking with a key starter from last year's New York Jets squad this week, I asked a question I posed on the AFC East blog last month and have addressed regularly in my weekly chat.

What team is the class of the division? The New England Patriots, coming off 14 victories and another title? Or the Jets, who knocked the Patriots out of the playoffs and reached their second straight AFC Championship Game?

"Until we dethrone them," he said, "the Patriots are the class of the AFC East. That's the bottom line. There's no other way to slice it. You've got to knock them off the pedestal. That's goal No. 1, winning the division. That's the easiest way to get to the ultimate goal of the Super Bowl."

That comment alone wasn't enough for the player to request anonymity, but the next part of our conversation made him feel it was necessary for the sake of diplomacy and because he wants to keep his job next season.

I wanted to know more. To extract his veteran insight on the state of the Jets, I asked what his game plan would be if I could appoint him general manager for the next couple months.

How would he get the Jets over the hump from runners-up to AFC East champs and into the Super Bowl? He must have pondered that very question over the past few months because, without much thought, he rattled off six key steps to propelling the Jets upward.

Here they are, in order of what he felt was most important, along with his reasoning:

1. Re-sign receiver Santonio Holmes.

"You have to do that," our embedded analyst said. The Jets have three prominent free-agent receivers, but Holmes must be the priority over Braylon Edwards and Brad Smith. Holmes missed four games while serving a suspension but made 52 catches for 746 yards and six touchdowns. He was a clutch performer and added a couple more touchdowns in the playoffs.

"If I had to choose between Santonio, Braylon or Brad Smith -- I don't think you can re-sign them all -- I'll take Santonio because of his body of work," the Jets insider said. "He's more established."

Smith averaged 28.6 yards on kickoff returns and scored two touchdowns, and was the club's third-leading rusher with 299 yards and a TD as a gadget quarterback. The Jets led the NFL in average start position after a kickoff (at the 31.5-yard line). But the insider said revamped kickoff rules would neutralize Smith's impact in 2011.

The possibility of signing Plaxico Burress is intriguing and could help the Jets cope with any inability to re-sign Edwards or Smith. As for whether Burress would be a problem for head coach Rex Ryan, the insider laughed.

"With everything we have in our organization, he'd be just one of the guys," he said. "He wouldn't stand out like a sore thumb.

"Guys just love playing for Rex. With Rex's personality and the way he runs the show, Plaxico would just fit right in. Rex doesn't have problems with guys who have so-called character issues or big personalities. Rex is a big personality himself. A guy like Plaxico would do well with the Jets."

2. Get inside linebacker David Harris signed to a long-term contract.

Harris led the Jets with 119 tackles. He recorded three sacks, 14 quarterback hits, a forced fumble and a recovery.

He signed his franchise tender and is under contract for next season, but he'll be a free agent again next offseason unless the Jets broker another deal before then.

"I've got to lock up David Harris," the insider said. "He's one of the more underrated defenders in the league. I've got to get him signed long-term."

3. Re-sign cornerback Antonio Cromartie.

Another significant free agent, Cromartie helped limit opposing quarterbacks to a 50.7 completion percentage -- lowest in the league by far -- and a 77.1 passer rating. He notched 42 tackles, three interceptions and a team-high 18 passes defensed.

Besides, the Jets invested too much in him to let him stroll for nothing this summer.

"If I gave up a second-round pick for the guy, I don't want to see him walk out the door," the insider said. "That would be a high draft pick I'd wasted.

"Plus, with no offseason to monitor the young players, I don't know what I have with Kyle Wilson. The team hasn't had a chance to coach him up. He didn't do the things the team expected last year. So I need to get Antonio Cromartie back to make sure I shore up the secondary."

4. Find a pass-rusher or two.

One of the Jets' biggest perceived weaknesses heading into the offseason was their inability to generate a more formidable pass rush last season.

"This team has a defensive scheme that can be dangerous with a pass rush," the insider said. "We had a great group, but that'll make my defense even stronger."

Outside linebacker Jason Taylor's status is in question. The Jets cut him, but it's not unfathomable he could return. Last year's regular starters, Calvin Pace and Bryan Thomas, are under contract. Thomas recorded a team-high six sacks last season, while Pace had 5.5 sacks. Taylor added five more. Those aren't fearsome numbers.

Football Outsiders charted the Jets for 117.5 hurries (seventh in the NFL), but just 38 quarterback hits (tied for 23rd).

5. Sign a free-agent right tackle.

The Jets released Damien Woody after the season, but published reports before the lockout indicated the club was interested in bringing him back.

Woody can't provide many guarantees in what would be his 13th NFL season. Although he has been to the Pro Bowl, is one of few players on last year's roster who owns a Super Bowl ring and started 13 games last season, there are injury concerns. He battled knee problems before an Achilles' injury landed him on injured reserve in the playoffs.

There don't appear to be any solutions on the roster. Last year's second-round draft choice, Vladimir Ducasse, was a tackle at Boston College but was unable to win a job at guard. Woody's reliable backup, Wayne Hunter, is a free agent.

6. Identify a safety to solidify the secondary, looking first at Brodney Pool.

The Jets' best safety, Jim Leonhard, is coming off a broken shin that had him limited to a scooter during rehab. Pool, Eric Smith and James Ihedigbo all are free agents.

Pool started 12 games. He ranked fourth in tackles with 63. He registered a sack, an interception, nine passes defenses, a forced fumble and a recovery. Smith started six games and was fifth with 57 tackles. He also made an impact on special teams (19 tackles), as did Ihedigbo (27 tackles).

"I would try to get Brodney Pool or Eric Smith back," the Jets insider said. "Both played well down the stretch, but I think Brodney Pool was a guy who, as it got later in the season, really picked up the scheme and became a playmaker at the safety position."

I found the insider's opinions to be insightful. Nowhere among the list of issues to address were quarterback Mark Sanchez, left guard or kicker Nick Folk. The obviously aren't major concerns with this veteran player.

Once the lockout concludes, we'll see how much the anonymous player's wish list jibes with Mike Tannenbaum's.

» NFC Draft Watch: East | West | North | South » AFC: East | West | North | South

Each Thursday leading up to the NFL draft (April 28-30), the ESPN.com NFL blog network will take a division-by-division look at key aspects of the draft. Today's topic: schemes and themes.

Buffalo Bills

The Bills went through a defensive overhaul last year under new head coach Chan Gailey and coordinator George Edwards. They morphed from Dick Jauron's 4-3 Tampa 2 scheme to a traditional 3-4 set. The Bills drafted accordingly, but as the season wore on and they failed to stop the run -- they ranked dead last in the league in rushing yards allowed per carry and per game -- they sunk back into a 4-3 mindset and frequently added another defender to the line. They've also hired Dave Wannstedt as assistant head coach and linebackers assistant. Wannstedt is a 4-3 devotee. All of this adds up to the Bills being interested in the best available defenders they can find, regardless of whether or not they fit into a preconceived scheme.

Miami Dolphins

Rightly or wrongly, the Dolphins' offensive identity the past three seasons has been the Wildcat. Those days would appear to be over. Offensive coordinator Dan Henning and quarterbacks coach David Lee (the man who introduced the Wildcat) are gone. Wildcat trigger man Ronnie Brown and speed-motion back Ricky Williams don't have contracts, and both could be on other teams. The one player the Dolphins drafted specifically to enhance the Wildcat, quarterback Pat White, was released after one season. Miami's new offensive identity has yet to be determined under new offensive coordinator Brian Daboll. Nobody can say for sure what he'll be looking for, but the run game must be strengthened. Head coach Tony Sparano said this week the Dolphins will remain a power rushing team. Brown and/or Williams will need to be replaced, and reliable interior linemen must be found.

New England Patriots

The Patriots are the NFL's most flexible club entering the draft. They own two picks in each of the first three rounds and in three of the top 33 slots. Bill Belichick can go any direction he chooses and certainly will have his staff working the phones for trade possibilities. The Patriots have a rich history of trading back to accumulate more picks, but they might be more open to trading up this year. They have decent youth on the roster, so when you consider the possibility of adding six more players drafted no later than the third round -- plus their picks in the fourth, fifth and sixth rounds -- you have to wonder if there will be room for them all on the 53-man roster. The glut of picks also allows the Patriots to select the best available player and not fret about specific needs with any given pick.

New York Jets

The Jets made it to the AFC Championship Game again and will draft 30th. Head coach Rex Ryan has playfully groused about the late position and the fact the Jets will have to rummage for the best player still on the board. The Jets drafted cornerback Kyle Wilson 29th last year and immediately named him the team's starting nickelback and punt returner. That didn't work out. Wilson started six games, made 19 tackles, defensed five passes and returned 15 punts. While that negative experience could entice the Jets to return to their usual ways and move up in the draft for a prospect they truly covet -- as they did with cornerback Darrelle Revis, linebacker David Harris and quarterback Mark Sanchez -- an inability to trade players until there's a new collective bargaining agreement might make that difficult.

Winners for the Associated Press 2010 Rookies of the Year will be announced Friday. Both appear to be foregone conclusions.

What a shock it would be if St. Louis Rams quarterback Sam Bradford and Detroit Lions defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh didn't represent his side of the ball.

Still, it's an appropriate time to recognize a few remarkable rookie campaigns in the AFC East.

New England Patriots cornerback Devin McCourty and tight ends Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez should get a few votes.

McCourty was forced to grow up fast when Leigh Bodden suffered a season-ending shoulder injury in training camp. McCourty lined up against the opposition's top receivers and finished second in the league with seven interceptions. He was voted to the Pro Bowl.

Gronkowski had 10 touchdown receptions, a Patriots record for tight ends of any age and for rookies of any position. He came two touchdowns short of Mike Ditka's NFL record for rookie tight ends. Gronkowski broke another Patriots rookie record with three touchdowns in one game.

Hernandez broke the Patriots record for receptions from a rookie tight end. He had 45 catches for 563 yards and six touchdowns.

None of the three other teams had particularly stellar rookies, but let's take a look at each team.

C.J. Spiller generated a lot of praise in the preseason. He was the ninth overall pick at a position favorable to rookie awards. But Spiller rushed for 283 yards and no touchdowns and added 157 receiving yards with a touchdown.

Some Bills fans might argue linebacker Arthur Moats was their best rookie. The sixth-round pick gained fame for the hit that essentially ended Brett Favre's career. Moats had 2.5 sacks and a forced fumble. He added 10 special-teams tackles.

But I submit the Bills' best rookie wasn't drafted. David Nelson caught 31 passes for 353 yards and three touchdowns. He didn't get on the field regularly until late in the season. Fourteen catches and all of his TDs came in a three-game stretch in December before an injury wiped out his last two games.

The Miami Dolphins caught a bad break when first-round pick Jared Odrick suffered a hairline leg fracture in the season opener. Second-round outside linebacker Koa Misi had a strong campaign with 4.5 sacks.

Defensive back Nolan Carroll, a fifth-round choice, had a wonderful year. Aside from being known as the guy Sal Alosi tripped at the Meadowlands, Carroll was a regular contributor in the secondary and was the Dolphins' top kickoff returner. His mother also was elected Florida's lieutenant governor.

For all the impressive things the New York Jets did in 2010, rookie production didn't rate. They drafted only four players, and all were disappointments to varying degrees.

First-round pick Kyle Wilson played every game but didn't become the nickelback Rex Ryan said he'd be. Second-round offensive lineman Vladimir Ducasse was healthy all season but played in three games. Fourth-round running back Joe McKnight became a punch line for his lack of conditioning and will be known as the player who led the Jets to cut Danny Woodhead. Fifth-round fullback John Conner didn't live up to his "Hard Knocks" hype and was deactivated at the end of the year.

New York Jets general manager Mike Tannenbaum held a news conference Friday to wrap up the 2010 season and address several issues moving forward.

Some highlights with my thoughts:

The Jets probably won't re-sign any of their players before the collective bargaining agreement expires March 4. This probably is the most prudent approach. The Jets would benefit from knowing the new salary cap structure rather than simply guessing on whether or not their players will fit under it. Teams also would prefer to know how free agency will be determined under the next CBA. Right now, we can't say for sure who will be restricted or unrestricted or what veteran minimum salaries will be.

Tannenbaum hopes to keep all three free-agent receivers: Braylon Edwards, Santonio Holmes and Brad Smith. I'm skeptical the Jets can pull it off. All are coming off big years, and it will be difficult to match all offers from other teams. But if the Jets can pull it off, the happiest man in the organization will be Mark Sanchez. Tannenbaum declined to speculate on whether or not the Jets would be interested in a post-prison Plaxico Burress.

Free-agent inside linebacker David Harris "remains a top priority for us." Harris, to me, is the most important free agent for the Jets. It's much easier to find a receiver in free agency than a stud linebacker such as Harris. He has led the Jets in tackles each of the past two seasons and makes all the on-field defensive calls. I highly doubt the Jets let him get away.

Brian Schottenheimer will be back as offensive coordinator. I realize some Jets fans are disgusted with Schottenheimer's play-calling in the AFC Championship Game, but he's a gem. Deep back-to-back runs into the postseason with a raw quarterback is a major accomplishment. And let's not forget he had the Jets humming with Brett Favre at quarterback until Favre's right arm started falling apart in 2008.

Sanchez will get "a couple of opinions" on his injured throwing shoulder before deciding if he'll have surgery. The Jets don't want to cut on their quarterback unless they have to. But the sooner they make a decision, the better so Sanchez can begin the rehab process. One of the overlooked traits Sanchez has developed in his two years is toughness. He has taken quite a few shots in the pocket and on the run, but he stays on the field.

Tannenbaum expects LaDainian Tomlinson and Jason Taylor to be on the 2011 roster. Tomlinson and Taylor are under contract, but the Jets could release them. Tomlinson lost effectiveness as the season wore on, but he can be a quality backup for Shonn Greene and adds value in the passing game as a receiver and in blitz protection. Taylor clearly is nearing the end of the line, and he knows it. But he wasn't a liability and provided leadership Tannenbaum said was "really hard to quantify."

First-round draft choice Kyle Wilson's future is "one of our paramount objectives for the offseason." The day the Jets drafted Wilson 29th overall, head coach Rex Ryan declared Wilson would be their nickelback and a great punt returner. Even with Darrelle Revis absent all summer because of a contract dispute, Wilson couldn't seize the opportunity and fell behind Drew Coleman on the depth chart. Tannenbaum cited inconsistency as Wilson's biggest problem.

Right tackle Damien Woody and fullback Tony Richardson probably won't be back. Tannenbaum didn't make those statements, but that's what I read between the lines. Woody turned 33 during the season and recently underwent Achilles surgery. He also missed games with a knee injury. Wayne Hunter or Vladimir Ducasse could take over for him. The Jets cut Richardson before the season and brought him back. They also have fullback John Conner waiting in the wings.

Vernon Gholston sounds like a goner. The sixth overall pick in 2008 was a healthy scratch in the playoffs. Tannenbaum diplomatically said the Jets "are going to see if there's anything else to try, but he has been given his share of opportunities, and it could be time to move on." Move over Mike Mamula.

» Wild-card Final Word: NY Jets-Indy | Baltimore-K.C. | N.O.-Seattle | G.B.-Philadelphia

Three nuggets of knowledge about Saturday’s Jets-Colts wild-card game:

If the Jets were the type of team to look ahead, they would admit the Patriots are their biggest concern today. We're speaking, of course, about a team coached by a guy who in the summer scrawled on the side of a tour bus that his team would be Super Bowl champions, a guy who on last year's postseason itinerary scheduled a ticker-tape parade through the Canyon of Heroes. So we know the Jets aren't very good at adhering to the "one game at a time" chestnut. The Colts look vulnerable (by their standards), and the Jets can draw confidence from last year's AFC Championship Game that they will compete Saturday night. Against the teams the Jets probably would face in this year's conference title game, the Jets own a recent victory against the Pittsburgh Steelers at Heinz Field and a lost a close one to the Baltimore Ravens in the season opener. So that would leave figuring out how to beat the Patriots next week at Gillette Stadium, where the Patriots won 45-3. That probably makes the look-ahead Jets more nervous than the Colts do.

Lesser names in the Jets' secondary will be in the spotlight as much as Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie. The "other guys" must step up to stop Colts quarterback Peyton Manning from waltzing down the field. Drew Coleman, who has shown a knack for big plays this season, will be the starting nickelback. Dwight Lowery, Kyle Wilson and Marquice Cole also will have roles in the Jets' sub packages. The defensive backfield is more flexible than it was in last year's AFC title game. Lowery started opposite Revis and surrendered nine receptions for 124 yards and a touchdown. Manning won't strike so hotly against Cromartie. That said, the Jets will need safeties Brodney Pool and Eric Smith to play well on the big stage. The Jets lost safety Jim Leonhard to a broken leg in early December, making Pool and Smith targets for opposing quarterbacks in the middle of the field.

Even a year later and with more weapons, the Jets still must limit the need for Mark Sanchez to win the game. In last year's playoffs, the Jets' objective was run, run and run some more, hope to get an early lead and then keep running until the clock struck 0:00. Sanchez completed just 12 passes in road victories against the Cincinnati Bengals and San Diego Chargers. Against the Colts in the AFC Championship Game, Sanchez was forced to throw because the Jets trailed in the third quarter -- and by the dreaded two scores with about nine minutes left in the fourth quarter. The Jets' front office helped their offense evolve into a team that could come from behind. They traded for Santonio Holmes and added LaDainian Tomlinson as a receiving threat out of the backfield. The Jets went from a team that ran on 58.9 percent of their plays in 2009 to one that ran 49.1 percent of the time this season. Even so, the Jets can't trade throws with Manning and the Colts. The Jets must establish themselves as the superior physical team -- which they are -- with a steady amount of Shonn Greene runs against a Colts run defense that has improved but still can be forgiving. From there, Sanchez can run play-action passes.

With intentions to win the AFC East, the New York Jets didn't expect to have a playoff rematch with the Indianapolis Colts so early in the tournament.

Nonetheless, CBS Sports analyst Phil Simms notes the Jets have prepared several months for the moment at hand. Simms provided his thoughts on Saturday night's first-round game in Lucas Oil Stadium.

"I believe that during the offseason the New York Jets built their football team to beat the Indianapolis Colts," Simms said. "Look at last season, when the Patriots lost to the Ravens in a horrendous game. Thoughts were that the Patriots could be on their way down. Everyone thinks the worst when you lose a playoff game, and the way the Jets lost to the Colts last year, they tried to correct things.

"They went out and got Antonio Cromartie and drafted Kyle Wilson to help them get better matchups against the Colts. Now, we will see. The Jets definitely have better matchups in the passing game this year than last when it comes to covering the Colts' receivers."

Simms still sees Jets quarterback Mark Sanchez as the pivotal figure.

"He is going to have to have a really, really good day for the Jets to win," Simms said. "The Colts are going to do whatever it takes to stop the Jets' running game. They will dare the Jets to throw it because in that building, with that noise, some of those defensive players dare you. And the big thing is, can you get the time to take advantage of it?"

In last season's AFC Championship Game, the upstart New York Jets were on their way to scoring their third straight road upset in the playoffs. They'd already knocked off a pair of division champions and led the Indianapolis Colts in the third quarter at Lucas Oil Stadium.

But the Colts outclassed the Jets in the second half and won easily to advance to the Super Bowl. The Jets had to regroup, knowing that to attain their Super Bowl dreams, they had to figure out a way to get past the Colts.

They won't need to look for them in the playoffs this year. The Jets and Colts will meet in the first round Saturday night, again in Indianapolis.

ESPN.com AFC South blogger Paul Kuharsky and AFC East blogger Tim Graham break down the rematch.

Tim Graham: The first thought I have about the Colts is that Peyton Manning isn't going to win this game with his aura. Aside from past experience, the Jets don't have much reason to quake in their cleats Saturday night. They can beat this guy. Manning has proven to be a mortal without tight end Dallas Clark and receivers Austin Collie and Anthony Gonzalez to target. Seventeen interceptions? Almost knocked out of the playoffs by the Jacksonville Jaguars? These Colts are a shadow of what we've come to know.

Paul Kuharsky: How about with his chakra, then? You've been spending too much time with Ricky Williams, dude. Has Manning been perfect? Hardly. But as Colts blogger Nate Dunlevy points out, and our ESPN Stats & Information confirms, Manning threw for 4,700 yards, tossed for more than 30 touchdowns, connected on 66 percent of his throws, had an interception rate of 2.5 percent and won 10 games. If that's a shadow of what you've known, you must really know Tom Brady’s 2007 season then. Because that was the only other time it has happened.

TG: Yeah, Manning won 10 games. So did Eli Manning and Josh Freeman. They didn't make the playoffs. The Colts' shadow doesn't have much to do with Peyton Manning slinging the ball all over the yard and racking up yardage. He's still great, but he's not a one-man show. If I were a Colts fan, my concern would be how they needed to close with four straight wins to avoid the embarrassment of being edged out of the playoffs by the Jaguars. The Jets, on the other hand, have shown to be a more complete team. That's how an erratic quarterback like Mark Sanchez can win one more game than Manning did and clinch a playoff berth weeks in advance.

PK: Well, Manning's always been crushed for being great in the regular season and not good enough in the playoffs. Congrats on being the first to hammer him for winning "only" 10 games and the division while throwing to Jacob Tamme and Blair White.

TG: That's what I mean. The Jets can contain those guys much easier than Clark and Collie. Plus, the Jets have been preparing for this matchup since last season's AFC Championship Game. They helplessly watched Manning carve the center of the field against them and realized immediately -- even though they had Darrelle Revis -- they needed more cornerbacks. Specifically with Manning in mind, the Jets traded for Antonio Cromartie and drafted Kyle Wilson in the first round. Previous starting cornerbacks Dwight Lowery and Drew Coleman gave them depth in nickel and dime packages. The Jets' biggest issue is at safety, where injuries have made them vulnerable.

PK: Manning has a bit of experience against teams with poor safety situations. His numbers against Houston and Jacksonville? Just nine touchdowns, one pick and a 101.5 passer rating. On the other side is the unspectacular Sanchez. I doubt Sanchez will be able to attack Aaron Francisco, the Colts' fourth-string strong safety, in a similar fashion, but we'll see. The Sanchize was near perfect in the first half of last season's AFC Championship Game. But the Jets asked him to throw only seven passes. After intermission, Indy greatly reduced his potency. The Colts didn't sack him and were credited with only four hits that day. The Colts' big-play potential from their Pro Bowl defensive ends was neutralized, and they still rolled to a 30-17 win. Of course, it might have had something to do with Manning throwing two-second half touchdowns to Sanchez's zero (and one interception). What happens this time if Dwight Freeney and/or Robert Mathis are able to introduce themselves to him a few times?

TG: Sanchez absolutely is the pivotal figure for the Jets on Saturday night. But, much like the personnel adjustments head coach Rex Ryan and general manager Mike Tannenbaum made on the defensive side to thwart Manning, they made changes on offense with the playoffs in mind. Sanchez might not have progressed much in his second season, but he didn't have a sophomore slump either. He has gained another 11 months and 16 games of NFL experience since the last time he faced the Colts. Plus, the Jets' offense has the ability to come from behind, something it couldn't do before. Last season's Jets were all ground-and-pound, and if an opponent took a two-score lead, the Jets' chances to win were slim. Sanchez showed several times this year he can strike in crunch time. Santonio Holmes and LaDainian Tomlinson out of the backfield give him much better weapons to go along with Braylon Edwards and tight end Dustin Keller.

PK: The most dramatic on-the-field difference in the Colts this year as compared to last is how they finished up running the ball and defending the run. Indianapolis enters the playoffs coming off four games in which they ran for 4.5 yards a carry and held opponents to 3.5 yards. Last year in their final four meaningful regular-season games, they were getting 3.5 yards and allowing 4.1 yards.

TG: Maybe the Colts will morph into the 1972 Miami Dolphins before our eyes.

PK: A month ago the Colts defense recommitted to playing fast and having fun. It's funny how a team can get away from such simple themes, especially when a return to them produces such fine results. Gary Brackett's been great. Fellow linebackers Pat Angerer and Kavell Conner have been quite good, even as rookies. Veteran Clint Session could return to take time from Conner. Offensive coordinator Clyde Christensen's willing to send in whichever back is best suited for a situation or a matchup, so we could see any sort of mix of running backs Joe Addai, Dominic Rhodes and Donald Brown on Saturday night. They are running more than well enough to give the Colts a balance that makes Manning's play-action super effective.

TG: Momentum on the ground has been a concern for the Jets since their bye in Week 7. Tomlinson went from MVP candidate to looking like the worn out player the San Diego Chargers thought they were bidding farewell. But Shonn Greene and Tomlinson found some traction in the closing weeks. Let's not even factor in what the Jets did against the Buffalo Bills in the regular-season finale, even though their backups trampled the Bills' first-stringers for 276 yards.

PK: I’m always willing to toss out Buffalo. I don’t even really like wings.

TG: Yeah, but I know you still have a cache of Rick James 8-tracks. Anyway, the Jets ran the ball well against three of the NFL's best run defenses late in the year. They surpassed the Pittsburgh Steelers' league-leading average by 43 yards and the Chicago Bears' second-rated run defense by 34 yards. As for stopping the run, the Jets pride themselves on it and improved statistically this year. They ranked third this year at 90.9 yards a game and 3.6 yards a carry. But -- and this is a big one -- they allowed more than 100 yards in each of their games before the finale. The Steelers averaged 5.8 yards a carry. The Bears averaged 4.4 yards. That said, I would be willing to bet if the Colts wanted to try to run the Jets to death and not have Manning throw so much, then the Jets would be thrilled.

PK: Give me a little impersonation of Rex Ryan thrilled after winning this game.

TG: It probably would go a little something like this ... "Well, shoot, doesn't feel much better than that, to be honest with ya. We played like Jets today. It was a dogfight out there; I'll tell ya that much. Those Colts are sunthin' else. One thing I'll say about them: I saw Joseph Addai running like Lydell Mitchell out there and was, like, 'Whoa! Wait a second! We could be in for a long day here.' But our defense was flying around and eventually found a way to wrestle him down out there. I said earlier in the week this was personal with Peyton Manning, and they do a great job. He's great, and it's hard to get to him, but I just feel like we knew what to expect and were able to find a way to bear down and put all our chips in the center of the table and beat him. That guy's had my number and it feels good to know I can beat the guy when it counts. But I gotta give a ton of credit to our offense out there, too. Mark Sanchez played great and showed why we traded up to draft him. That right there's what we saw when we scouted him and just knew this guy was going to be a special player. Their crowd was tough with the way they were roaring at the opening kickoff I was, like, 'Whooo! Here we go!' It was full speed ahead. But one thing I should point out is that I broke out my lucky sweatshirt with the pizza stain this week." ... How would Jim Caldwell react to a Colts win Saturday night?

PK: I can hear him, his voice just the same as if they'd have lost: "We're pleased to have beaten a good football team, a quality football team. It's gratifying that our work this week paid off. I shared with you some of the examples of the studiousness I encountered during the preparation week. You saw the rewards of that. We'll enjoy it, we should enjoy it, it was hard-fought and we’re fortunate. We will have to do those same things to prepare for Pittsburgh. It’s a tough place to play, an excellent football team. It's a new challenge. It will be fun to see them get out there and see what they can do."

TG: In that case, I'm glad I'll be covering the Jets' locker room, win or lose. It'll be more interesting. I think the Jets have a better chance to win the game than a lot of prognosticators are giving them credit for. But even if they can't pull off the upset, they'll face a lot of questions as an organization. With all of the negative attention they've generated this season, a loss against the team they spent a year preparing for should lead to considerable introspection in Florham Park. Should we make picks?

PK: Sure. I pick St. Elmo. Make a reservation.

Drafting is a difficult job.

But that shouldn't deter us from second-guessing whether teams succeeded or screwed up eight months ago.

Three-quarters into the season, Dallas Morning News writer Rick Gosselin analyzed the 2010 rookie class by their production and slotted them back into the draft order to see who teams should have taken in April.

The list suggests three AFC East clubs have generated much less than the designated value from their first-round prospects, but no team has gotten more production from its picks than the New England Patriots have.

In the adjusted draft, the Patriots' actual first round pick, cornerback Devin McCourty, shoots up 23 spots to the Washington Redskins at fourth overall. Tight end Aaron Hernandez was a fourth-round pick, but with hindsight he projects to the Atlanta Falcons at 19th overall. Tight end Rob Gronkowski moves from 42nd overall to the Detroit Lions with the 30th pick

No other AFC East team's actual first-round pick -- Buffalo Bills running back C.J. Spiller, Miami Dolphins defensive end Jared Odrick or New York Jets cornerback Kyle Wilson -- appeared in Gosselin's reorganized order.

The adjusted order has cornerback Joe Haden to the Bills at No. 9, receiver Jacoby Ford to the Patriots at No. 27, running back Jahvid Best to the Dolphins at No. 28 and cornerback Alterraun Verner to the Jets at No. 29.

On a team full of superstars, the importance of New York Jets safety Jim Leonhard often gets overlooked.


The difference will be noticeable when Leonhard's not on the field.

Leonhard suffered what head coach Rex Ryan called a "severe" shin injury. Ryan assumed it was broken when Leonhard ran into receiver Patrick Turner during a drill at Friday's practice. Multiple outlets have reported Leonhard's injury is season-ending.

The loss will be felt in many ways. Leonhard makes the secondary calls. He leads all Jets defensive backs and is third overall on the team with 66 tackles. He has one interception, six passes defensed, a tackle for loss, three quarterback hits and a fumble recovery.

Eric Smith likely will join the other usual safety, Brodney Pool, in the lineup Monday night against the New England Patriots in Gillette Stadium.

Leonhard also is the Jets' top punt returner. He's averaging 11.3 yards, which ranks fourth among players with at least 20 returns.

Rookie cornerback Kyle Wilson is the only other Jet to have returned a punt this year (7.4-yard average), but he has fallen out of favor. Special teams coordinator Mike Westhoff announced receiver Jerricho Cotchery, coming back from a groin injury, will field punts.

Power Rankings: Preseason: No. 7. This week: No. 5.

2010 schedule/results

Where they stand: Jets head coach Rex Ryan frequently says his goal is to lead the league in wins. The Jets are on their way. They and five other teams are tied for the NFL's best record at 6-2. The Jets are atop the AFC East (for now) by virtue of their Week 2 victory over the New England Patriots, who have the same record. The Jets rank 12th in total offense, 13th in points per game, sixth in total defense and third in scoring defense.

Falling: New York's pass defense has been significantly less intimidating than it was last year. The ability to match Antonio Cromartie on the opposition's best wideout was wonderful while Darrelle Revis was hobbled. But the overall effect with Revis gimping about -- or sidelined completely -- was a secondary that looked much closer to ordinary than Jets fans would prefer. Nickel corner has been a concern. Rookie Kyle Wilson lost his job to Drew Coleman. Both have been blistered.

Another perceived strength heading into the season was depth at receiver once Santonio Holmes served his four-game suspension. A bad case of the dropsies plagued the Jets in a Week 8 loss to the Green Bay Packers, with the normally sure-handed Jerricho Cotchery bumbling the most.

Rising: Swagger is in high supply for the Jets. They easily could be winless in their past three games, but they found ways to salvage victories in Weeks 6 and 9. To an outsider, they got incredibly lucky with late comebacks over the Denver Broncos and Detroit Lions, but in the Jets' locker room, they're feeling invincible. A talented team with that kind of surging confidence is dangerous.

Young quarterback Mark Sanchez continues to impress despite his low completion percentage. His arm is erratic. He's still prone to mental mistakes. But he also has that inexplicable knack for the clutch play. Sanchez has slashed those pathetic turnover numbers from his rookie season. The consistent presence of tight end Dustin Keller (30 receptions for 447 yards and five touchdowns) in the game plan has been a boon.

Midseason MVP: LaDainian Tomlinson wasn't supposed to have anything left. The Jets' decision to let Thomas Jones go and bring in Tomlinson was met with skepticism, but the front office has been proved wise. Tomlinson is on pace to rush for 1,198 yards and 10 touchdowns and 60 catches for 382 yards. Not bad for a retread.

Outlook: The Jets have a minefield schedule ahead. They must make their second tour through the AFC East in addition to games against the Pittsburgh Steelers, Chicago Bears and Houston Texans. The Jets, however, are in good shape because they're talented, deep and already have six wins in the bank. They would have to implode to miss the playoffs.

» NFC Final Word: East | West | North | South » AFC: East | West | North | South

Five nuggets of knowledge about Week 8:

Tom Brady should emerge Sunday night with his streak still intact. There are contradictory reports about whether Brett Favre or Tarvaris Jackson will be Minnesota's starting quarterback. But it's safe to say Favre's incredible streak of 291 games (315 counting the postseason) has never been in more jeopardy. Brady is working on his own streak. He has won 23 straight home games. A victory over the Vikings in Gillette Stadium would put him one away from Favre's NFL record set from 1995 to 1998.

It's time for the Dolphins to give Sean Smith another shot at right cornerback. Smith started 16 games as a rookie last year. But after a shaky camp and preseason, he lost his job to veteran reserve Jason Allen before the regular season began. Smith obviously lost his swagger. Allen occasionally makes a big play and has three interceptions, but he's clearly a target. Steelers receiver Mike Wallace singed Allen for a 53-yard touchdown last week. The Bengals are a tough opponent to help Smith back on track, but as a player who thrives on confidence, a solid performance Sunday could get him going again.

I'm officially rooting for Bills quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick to stay hot. The Bills are 0-6 and don't have much to look forward to. Their national relevance is rooted in being winless, but Fitzpatrick's play has given Bills fans something positive to talk about. He's a career backup, an underdog who was overlooked by the Bills before taking over for Trent Edwards in Week 3. Fitzpatrick's 102.2 passer rating ranks second to Peyton Manning's 103.4. Fitzpatrick has played only four games, but he has 11 touchdown passes, the same as Brady and Tony Romo. Only six quarterbacks have more.

Jets rookie cornerback Kyle Wilson is playing his way off the field. At the news conference to discuss why they selected him 29th overall, Jets coach Rex Ryan declared Wilson would be their punt returner and nickel corner. As star cornerback Darrelle Revis' holdout dragged on, Wilson was in line to start and eventually did (three games) after Revis yanked his hamstring. But Wilson, who has committed three penalties for 54 yards, has been losing time to Dwight Lowery and Drew Coleman. "His role is shrinking," Ryan said of Wilson. "There is only one way to get a bigger role, and that's to show it on the practice field. When you do get your opportunities in the game, you have to step up. That's it."

The Patriots must stop Adrian Peterson if they're going to stop Randy Moss. It won't matter who Minnesota's quarterback is in this regard. Jackson has the ability to hang a ball in the air for Moss, too. The way to negate that possibility is keeping both Patriots safeties deep. That can't happen if the Patriots' front seven can’t contain Peterson, who has that rare combination of speed, strength and a knack for evading tackles.

MIAMI -- The numbers were gaudy, especially for a so-called running team.

The Miami Dolphins threw hither and yon against the New York Jets. Dolphins quarterback Chad Henne passed for the most yards in his pro career. Brandon Marshall had a big day even by his standards. Davone Bess and Brian Hartline inflicted additional damage. Tight end Anthony Fasano scored a touchdown.

The Dolphins, it seemed, could do whatever they wanted through the air.

"Yeah," Jets coach Rex Ryan snapped, "except score when it counted."

On their final play of a grueling Sunday night for the Jets' defenders, they intercepted Henne in the end zone to secure a 31-23 victory in Sun Life Stadium.

After the two-minute warning, the Dolphins drove from their 31-yard line to the doorstep of tying the game. That's where the Jets finally stopped Henne from knifing them. Defensive back Drew Coleman came down with the interception on fourth down with 27 seconds on the clock.

"The pass defense was horrendous," Ryan said, "but we got it done, though. It was a team effort. Clearly, you've got to give credit to their football team. They do a nice job. They had some guys open, made some catches."

For the first time under Ryan, the Jets' offense had to rescue their defense. The defense hadn't allowed more than 17 points in a victory. Before Sunday night, they'd given up more than 14 points and won only twice during the Ryan regime.

"It feels good just to know that we can get their back," said Jets tight end Dustin Keller, who had six catches for 98 yards and two touchdowns -- all in the first half. "As great of a defense as they are, occasionally they're going to have a bad game. We just know that we can pull up the slack for them like they've done for us so many times."

The real estate the Jets yielded was frightening. The Dolphins rolled up 436 yards. Peyton Manning and the Indianapolis Colts were the only ones to amass more yards last year, gaining 461 to eliminate the Jets from the postseason.

The most yards the Jets had allowed in a victory were 344 to the San Diego Chargers in the playoffs.

Henne threw for 363 yards himself Sunday night, the most Ryan's defense has given up through the air. Henne found Marshall 10 times for 166 yards and a touchdown. It wasn't the best night for Antonio Cromartie.

"They completed a lot more than we expected," Jets safety Jim Leonhard said. "They had it rolling. They got in a good rhythm. It was tough. You don't expect them to throw for that many yards. We weren't making plays as a secondary. They hit us a few times, but we fought to the end."

Henne was particularly sharp on third downs, completing nine of his 14 attempts for 123 yards, six first downs and one touchdown. He converted four third downs of 6 yards or longer, including a 15-yarder and a 10-yarder in the third quarter.

The Dolphins' offense was so effective, on a nine-play, 76-yard touchdown drive in the second quarter, they didn't face any third downs. The possession was aided by rookie cornerback Kyle Wilson's pass interference on a second-and-22 play.

When does Darrelle Revis get back?

The Jets will play the Buffalo Bills next week in Ralph Wilson Stadium. That might sound slightly more difficult than a bye week, but for those who didn't pay attention Sunday, the Bills' offense woke up against the New England Patriots.

The Bills scored one fewer point than the Jets did Sunday. Ryan Fitzpatrick threw for 247 yards and a pair of touchdowns.

After that, the Jets play host to Brett Favre and the Minnesota Vikings at the Meadowlands.

The Jets, however, got another strong game out of their offense on a night reminiscent of the great Dan Marino-Ken O'Brien shootouts.

Henne might have recorded the more prolific stats, but Mark Sanchez had the better night: 15-of-28 for 256 yards, three touchdowns, no interceptions and a 120.5 passer rating -- and the W.

Sanchez threw for three touchdowns for the first time as a pro last week. Now he's done it twice in a row.

"I remember telling the offense before that sometimes the offense is going to have to pick up the defense," Ryan said. "That'd be what happened today. I told them in the locker room 'You know, I had confidence in our offense, but I don't know I really believed that statement.' "

Asked to elaborate about why he didn't have total faith in his offense, Ryan backed off a little.

"I always knew our offense could play to this level," Ryan said. "I just never thought our defense could play to this level, to be honest with you."