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Tom Brady probably doesn't worry about paying the mortgage(s), not when his wife's career earnings reportedly are about to hit $1 billion.

So I doubt Brady is upset about ranking ninth in all sports and third among NFL quarterbacks in Sports Illustrated's annual Fortunate 50 list of the top-earning American athletes. The rankings are based on salaries and estimated endorsement dollars.

Brady came in ninth with New England Patriots paychecks of about $20 million and sponsorships of $10 million. Brady was tied for 28th last year in Sports Illustrated's analysis.

Brady is a spokesman for various products, but he's not a prolific pitchman like Indianapolis Colts quarterback Peyton Manning is. Manning ranked fourth at about $37 million. Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan also finished ahead of Brady at $32.7 million.

Tiger Woods was first with about $2.3 million in golf earnings but an estimated $60 million in endorsements. Phil Mickelson was less than seven figures behind Woods at $61.185 million.

Miami Heat forward LeBron James was third at $44.5 million.

Here are the athletes with AFC East ties:

• 9. Tom Brady, Patriots quarterback: $30 million
• 14. Darrelle Revis, Jets cornerback: $25.75 million
• 38. Mark Sanchez, Jets quarterback: $17.75 million

The NFL Network is filling some of the lockout downtime with a countdown of the top 100 players, revealing 10 at a time every Sunday night.

The first AFC East players were mentioned in the most recent group, Nos. 71 through 80, as voted on by their league peers.

New York Jets left tackle D'Brickashaw Ferguson came in at No. 79. Jets receiver Santonio Holmes was No. 76.

Sunday night's recap show featured analysis from former New England Patriots outside linebacker Willie McGinest and reporter Jay Glazer. During the show, host Lindsay Soto mentioned 12 quarterbacks are among the top 100 and asked the experts to give their rankings.

McGinest's list:

1. Tom Brady, Patriots
2. Peyton Manning, Colts
3. Drew Brees, Saints
4. Aaron Rodgers, Packers
5. Philip Rivers, Chargers
6. Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers
7. Michael Vick, Eagles
8. Eli Manning, Giants
9. Matt Schaub, Texans
10. Matt Ryan, Falcons
11. Tony Romo, Cowboys
12. Donovan McNabb, Redskins

Glazer's list (with a tie for 12th):

1. Tom Brady, Patriots
2. Peyton Manning, Colts
3. Drew Brees, Saints
4. Aaron Rodgers, Packers
5. Philip Rivers, Chargers
6. Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers
7. Michael Vick, Eagles
8. Matt Ryan, Falcons
9. Eli Manning, Giants
10. Tony Romo, Cowboys
11. Josh Freeman, Buccaneers
12. Matt Schaub, Texans, and Sam Bradford, Rams

What do you think?

ESPN analyst Herm Edwards and reporter Adam Schefter discuss the latest developments with the NFL lockout, which is nearing the two-month mark. One of the key issues deals with reported against-the-rules contact between teams and undrafted rookies.

While I stepped away from the AFC East blog for a week, Khaled Elsayed of Pro Football Focus released a series of articles in which he rated the 101 best players from last season.

The list generated murmurs about Elsayed's sanity because he listed New England Patriots quarterback and reigning (unanimous) MVP Tom Brady at No. 33.

Although grading players off television isn't the same as grading coaches' game film, and grades are only as good as the evaluators and the consistency of their systems, Pro Football Focus at least puts in the time to scrutinize every play from every game in myriad ways.

Elsayed has a basis for his opinion beyond pulling names out of the air, which many readers will assume he did.

Bart Scott, not considered the best inside linebacker on the New York Jets roster, was No. 29.

Buffalo Bills defensive tackle Kyle Williams was rated third behind only Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers and San Francisco 49ers defensive end Justin Smith and way ahead of superstars such as Indianapolis Colts quarterback Peyton Manning and Houston Texans receiver Andre Johnson.

Jets cornerback Darrelle Revis isn't on the list anywhere.

The list is, to be diplomatic, interesting.

The AFC East representatives who did make the list:

• 3. Kyle Williams, Bills defensive tackle: The only Bill on the chart.
• 26. Jake Long, Dolphins left tackle: The highest-rated tackle -- right or left.
• 29. Bart Scott, Jets inside linebacker: Elsayed calls David Harris "inferior" and didn't include him.
• 30. Nick Mangold, Jets center: The highest rated at his position.
• 31. Cameron Wake, Dolphins outside linebacker: Dolphins should offer him for Brady, straight up.
• 33. Tom Brady, Patriots quarterback: Brady was the sixth QB. Hey, at least he beat out Antonio Garay (37th).
• 60. Rob Gronkowski, Patriots tight end: rated fourth behind Dallas Clark, Marcedes Lewis and Antonio Gates.
• 67. Logan Mankins, Patriots guard: Run blocking was dominant enough to overcome a half-season of work.
• 70. D'Brickashaw Ferguson, Jets left tackle: Ahead of Joe Thomas.
• 71. Devin McCourty, Patriots cornerback: Ahead of Asante Samuel and Brent Grimes.
• 73. Sione Pouha, Jets nose tackle: Combination of size and hustle mentioned as reason he's so highly rated.
• 85. Shaun Ellis, Jets defensive end: Division-leading fifth Jets player on the list.
• 89. Paul Soliai, Dolphins nose tackle: Elsayed said his final nine weeks graded among best in the NFL.
• 99. Anthony Fasano, Dolphins tight end: On the list for his blocking acumen.

Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments section below this article.

I expect a lively discussion.

With the NFL draft one day away, Scouts Inc. analysts Kevin Weidl and Steve Muench tap into the latest buzz.

They discuss the possibility quarterbacks come off the board with the first two picks. That would leave the Buffalo Bills with virtually no choice but to draft a defender at No. 3, but they'd get the best one in the entire draft class.

Also discussed is Florida center Mike Pouncey to the Miami Dolphins at No. 15 or to the New England Patriots at No. 17.

ESPN.com's positional Power Rankings got around to quarterbacks Tuesday.

There were few surprises to me on the final list because my ballot was a near-Xerox of the final list. The only eyebrow-raiser for me was New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady not being the unanimous selection among the eight panelists.

Brady easily came out on top, but Indianapolis Colts quarterback Peyton Manning received first-place votes from NFC West blogger Mike Sando and AFC South blogger Paul Kuharsky. Each voted Brady second.

Brady was the undisputed pick for the Associated Press MVP Award and for All-Pro, but Sando explained Manning still deserved the edge.

"Brady has the better stats over the last couple seasons, but the Colts would undoubtedly be far worse off than the Patriots if both teams had backups under center," Sando said. "Once that was established, Brady's recent postseason struggles became a deciding factor.

"These quarterbacks have, to an extent, switched roles recently. Manning has won a championship more recently than Brady has won one. Brady has seven touchdowns, seven picks and one victory in his last four playoff games. Manning has seven touchdowns, two picks and two victories in his last four."

I don't understand the logic there. Even without taking into consideration that Brady posted historic efficiency numbers in a totally revamped system that jettisoned Randy Moss, went from a spread offense to a two-tight end set and utilized a cast of overachievers and rookies, the concept of factoring past success is lost on me.

Power Rankings are a snapshot of the moment and are expected to change regularly, not encompass years of work. But if the reason for selecting Manning ahead of Brady is recent playoff performances that go back a few years, then Ben Roethlisberger should be ahead of Manning, right? Roethlisberger has been to a pair of Super Bowls and won his second title more recently than Manning's only championship.

Manning was third on two ballots, getting in line behind Green Bay Packers star Aaron Rodgers on NFC North blogger Kevin Seifert's list and behind Drew Brees on NFC South blogger Pat Yasinskas' list.

This was my ballot:

1. Tom Brady, Patriots
2. Peyton Manning, Colts
3. Aaron Rodgers, Packers
4. Drew Brees, Saints
5. Philip Rivers, Chargers
6. Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers
7. Michael Vick, Eagles
8. Matt Ryan, Falcons
9. Matt Schaub, Texans
10. Joe Flacco, Ravens

Compared to the consensus, I pegged nine of the 10 players exactly and each of the first eight quarterbacks listed. The only disparity was Schaub, who tied for 12th. New York Giants quarterback Eli Manning emerges as the group's choice for No. 8.

What are your thoughts?

Miami Dolphins fans should be more comfortable than most with the idea of drafting Arkansas quarterback Ryan Mallett.

Mallett enters the NFL with multiple question marks despite a rifle arm and prolific statistics in a pro-style offense. Drug rumors have been persistent. On the field, he's considered sloth-like in his movements.

All the same was said about Dan Marino. He's in the Pro Football Hall of Fame now, and the Dolphins still are searching for his replacement after a dozen years, an issue we explored Wednesday in a piece about Bill Parcells defending the Dolphins' decision to draft left tackle Jake Long instead of quarterback Matt Ryan in 2008.

Miami Herald writer Barry Jackson wrote about the Dolphins' interest in Mallett and the possibility they would draft him.

The Dolphins own the 15th overall pick. Mallett is expected to be on the board there and perhaps tumble into the second round, but the Dolphins don't have a second-round pick.

Jackson spoke with Arkansas tight end D.J. Williams about Mallett. Williams is draft-eligible and recently broke bread with Mallett, Dolphins general manager Jeff Ireland and head coach Tony Sparano in Fayetteville, Ark.

At a 45-minute workout for the Dolphins, Williams said Mallett "put the ball on the money all day. You could see the coaches say, 'Wow!' We did everything -- rollouts, seven-step drops, the quick game."

Williams claimed Mallett came away from the sessions with a stronger vibe about the Dolphins than other teams.

"Usually, Ryan says, 'I don't know.' But he felt very comfortable about what the Dolphins' interest is," Williams said. "He was really good."

The Dolphins might have to take Mallett in a spot many draft experts consider a reach.

But if the Dolphins identify him as their man, then what should projections matter?

Four words Bill Parcells uttered as a musing exploded into a sexy headline that bothered him:

"Parcells: Dolphins should have taken Ryan, not Long, in '08."

The NFL.com headline was 150 percent longer than the actual quote. The former Miami Dolphins personnel executive, a bit stunned, also insisted it was inaccurate.

Parcells said he doesn't lament drafting Michigan left tackle Jake Long first overall in 2008 and claimed if he had to do it all over again -- even knowing what we know three years later -- he would still select Long ahead of quarterback Matt Ryan.

"Absolutely," Parcells told me Wednesday morning. "I do not regret taking Jake Long."

Parcells recently told Miami Herald columnist Armando Salgeuro he could understand the idea that "maybe we should have" taken Ryan instead of Long in 2008. Salguero treated the comment appropriately. The quote appeared in the 21st paragraph in a story that was 31 paragraphs long. The quote wasn't significant enough to make the front page of the sports section.

"Maybe we should have" doesn't equal an apology to Dolfans or anyone else.

"You always wonder if you should've taken a quarterback," Parcells said when I called him Wednesday. "You always wonder about that. But I don't regret taking Jake Long. The guy has been in the Pro Bowl every season he's played. What else you want?"

"Perhaps Matt Ryan instead," I replied.

There was silence for a few seconds.

"Well," Parcells said, "I've seen him as well."

The comparison to be made is not between Long and Ryan. The Dolphins already have been proven correct with their decision. Long has been to three Pro Bowls in three seasons. He was voted first-team All-Pro last season. He's an elite performer at a critically important position.

Miami was so certain of Long's future it signed him four days before the draft.

"Historically, offensive tackles are the position with the least margin for error," Parcells said.

Any debate is rooted in the Dolphins' broader approach to the 2008 draft. They decided to take Long first and a quarterback with one of their two second-round draft choices. The latter part of the plan has failed.

The Dolphins selected Michigan quarterback Chad Henne with the 57th pick. Henne's struggles in two years as the lead quarterback have Dolfans on edge. Fifteen starters after Dan Marino retired in 1999, the Dolphins are still on the lookout for a satisfactory answer.

The Atlanta Falcons drafted Ryan third overall. He has guided them to the playoffs twice. His 33 victories tied Marino for the most in an NFL quarterback's first three seasons.

Given all that, Parcells is content the Dolphins made the proper choice for the foundation of a franchise that was in cinders. Long was the first draft choice under Parcells, general manager Jeff Ireland and head coach Tony Sparano after a 1-15 season.

"No matter who he is or where he played, a quarterback has to make a major transition to professional football," Parcells said. "Offensive tackle, the game is faster and against bigger, stronger guys. There is a transition. But it's not as great. He's doing his job in one-on-one situations. If he's capable of doing that, there really aren't any overriding factors.

"But the quarterback, there's a lot of other moving parts. The cast around the quarterback has a lot to do with his success. The system he gets into and the coach that he has and the vision for the player and all that."

The flip side of that philosophy is never passing on a great quarterback. Snap him up and build around him.

A common sentiment specific to the Long-versus-Ryan argument is that Ryan couldn't have succeeded in Miami the same way he has in Atlanta because Miami's offensive line would be so much worse.

That's not true. The year before Ryan and Long entered the NFL, the Falcons gave up 47 sacks. Only six clubs allowed more. The one-win Dolphins gave up 42 sacks.

In their rookie seasons, the Falcons yielded 17 sacks. Just four teams were better. The Dolphins also improved to 10th in the league, allowing 26 sacks.

The Falcons found a way to draft a franchise quarterback and, with a first-year head coach and general manager (just like the Dolphins), build a supporting system around him.

"We did our homework," Parcells said. "We sent everybody, the head coach, the general manager, offensive coordinator, the quarterback coach to work out all the quarterbacks.

"When we came back, we decided to take Jake Long and try to draft [a quarterback] second. That's exactly what we did."

The Falcons took the opposite approach, picking the best quarterback in the draft and targeting protection in the 21st slot. It was such a deep draft for tackles. The first eight tackles taken that year -- as late as the 59th pick -- have started at least two seasons. The Falcons went with USC tackle Sam Baker, who was limited by injuries as a rookie, but has been their left tackle the past two years.

Nevertheless, Parcells is convinced the Dolphins did the right thing.

"Jake Long's a very good player," Parcells said. "I'm happy that we drafted him, and I'm certain the Dolphins are happy they have him."

» NFC Draft Watch: East | West | North | South » AFC: East | West | North | South

Each Thursday leading up to the NFL draft (April 28-30), the ESPN.com NFL blog network will take a division-by-division look at key aspects of the draft. Today’s topic: history in that spot.

Buffalo Bills

The Bills' top pick is No. 3 overall. Here are the past seven players taken in that spot, with their NFL teams in parentheses:

2010: DT Gerald McCoy (Buccaneers)

2009: DE Tyson Jackson (Chiefs)

2008: QB Matt Ryan (Falcons)

2007: T Joe Thomas (Browns)

2006: QB Vince Young (Titans)

2005: WR Braylon Edwards (Browns)

2004: WR Larry Fitzgerald (Cardinals)

ANALYSIS: Some sexy picks have been made in this spot. None of the players have been out-and-out busts, although character concerns have overshadowed a couple. Only McCoy and Jackson haven't been selected for at least one Pro Bowl. Fitzgerald is an elite receiver, arguably the best in the business. Edwards can be a dangerous playmaker when not dropping passes, which he didn't do last year. Ryan is an emerging star. Young has been a lightning rod, but he did win rookie of the year and has gone to a pair of Pro Bowls. Thomas is a star blocker with four Pro Bowls on his résumé already.

Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins' top pick is No. 15 overall. Here are the past seven players taken in that spot, with their NFL teams in parentheses:

2010: DE Jason Pierre-Paul (Giants)

2009: LB Brian Cushing (Texans)

2008: G Branden Albert (Chiefs)

2007: LB Lawrence Timmons (Steelers)

2006: CB Tye Hill (Rams)

2005: LB Derrick Johnson (Chiefs)

2004: WR Michael Clayton (Buccaneers)

ANALYSIS: This is a region of the first round where picks can break either way. There have been solid players drafted here, but no superstars. Cushing was a rookie of the year, but his career has been tainted by performance-enhancing drug usage. Clayton made an immediate impact with 80 catches for 1,193 yards and seven touchdowns as a rookie but hasn't caught more than 38 passes since. Johnson has been a solid linebacker for Kansas City, while Timmons has been an influential member of Pittsburgh's defense the past two seasons. Hill has been the biggest disappointment. He has been with four teams, starting 25 games.

New England Patriots

The Patriots' first-round picks are Nos. 17 and 28 overall. Here are the past seven players taken in those spots, with their NFL teams in parentheses:

2010: G Mike Iupati (49ers) and DE Jared Odrick (Dolphins)

2009: QB Josh Freeman (Buccaneers) and G Eric Wood (Bills)

2008: T Gosder Cherilus (Lions) and DE Lawrence Jackson (Seahawks)

2007: DE Jarvis Moss (Broncos) and T Joe Staley (49ers)

2006: LB Chad Greenway (Vikings) and TE Marcedes Lewis (Jaguars)

2005: LB David Pollack (Bengals) and DE Luis Castillo (Chargers)

2004: LB D.J. Williams (Broncos) and CB Chris Gamble (Panthers)

ANALYSIS: Results have been mixed with these slots, but the 28th pick actually has found more starters than the 17th in recent years. Freeman showed signs of developing into a future star last year, and Cherilus has started 40 of his 43 games at right tackle. Williams and Greenway have been regular starters. But Moss and Pollack didn't work out. In the 28th slot, Odrick is the only one who hasn't been a regular starter. Injuries detonated his rookie season.

New York Jets

The Jets' top pick is No. 30 overall. Here are the past seven players taken in that spot, with their NFL teams in parentheses:

2010: RB Jahvid Best (Lions)

2009: WR Kenny Britt (Titans)

2008: TE Dustin Keller (Jets)

2007: WR Craig Davis (Chargers)

2006: RB Joseph Addai (Colts)

2005: TE Heath Miller (Steelers)

2004: RB Kevin Jones (Lions)

ANALYSIS: What strikes me is that all seven selections not only are offensive players but also ball handlers. Perhaps teams in the back of the draft feel they can gamble a little bit and try to hit big on a skill position. Whatever the reasoning, it seems to have worked. This has been a successful spot. Jones and Addai rushed for 1,000 yards as rookies. Best appears to be the Lions' running back of the future. Miller and Addai have gone to Pro Bowls. Britt was the Titans' leading receiver last year. Keller is one of the NFL's better tight ends.

Total coincidence that we reached the Miami Dolphins' turn in the AFC East reader mock draft the same day ESPN's "On the Clock" roundtable series takes a look at the aqua and orange.

Most of the panel's conversation deals with the Dolphins' quarterback situation. Draft expert Mel Kiper once again noted the Dolphins might have erred by taking left tackle Jake Long first overall in 2008 rather than a quarterback.

"The left tackle is not going to get you where you want to go," Kiper said. "The quarterback does. It's nice to have that great left tackle, but you've got to have the quarterback."

The Dolphins drafted Chad Henne with their second second-round pick that year.

"Chad Henne was wildly inconsistent at Michigan," Kiper said. "That's why I had some questions about him, coming out. We see that in Miami. There are games where he looks like he could be the guy and other games you scratch your head, saying 'Why did that throw go where it did?'

"The inaccuracy of Chad Henne and the inconsistency of Chad Henne is the reason right now they don't know where they're going at quarterback."

Henne completed 61.4 percent of his throws for 3,301 yards and 15 touchdowns with 19 interceptions. His 75.4 passer rating was 15th in the league.

Henne lost his starting job to Chad Pennington in Week 10 and might have remained on the sidelines had Pennington not suffered a season-ending shoulder injury.

ESPN analyst Trent Dilfer still believes Henne can be salvageable as a starter.

"When I study him on tape, there is improvement," Dilfer said. "You see improvement in his ability to change speeds on the ball, make some throws he hasn't been able to make earlier in his career.

"And I think after 27 starts, it's not a big enough body of work to come up with a definitive judgment on Chad Henne. I think the franchise would take a giant step backwards if they started over and went and got another rookie. Unless it's an established, veteran, free-agent quarterback, I think Chad Henne is the answer for the Dolphins this year."

Also discussed in the segment were the fractured front-office relationships stemming from owner Stephen Ross' pursuit of Stanford coach Jim Harbaugh. Ross and general manager Jeff Ireland flew cross country to woo Harbaugh, leaving Sparano to twist.

"That broke a trust right there," ESPN's Chris Mortensen said. "Even though this is trending down a little bit, it has not been a collapse. ... That trust is tough to repair, but somehow Ireland and Sparano have got to do that, because it's not a disaster."

Jake Long is no VCU. Steve Johnson couldn't pull a Butler.

There were no AFC East upsets in the "Madden NFL 12" cover tournament.

First-round voting closed Sunday, with New York Jets quarterback Mark Sanchez and New England Patriots running back Danny Woodhead advancing to the next round.

Sanchez eliminated Long in one of the closest first-round showdowns. Sanchez received 55 percent of the vote and has a much tougher Sweet 16 matchup against New Orleans Saints quarterback Drew Brees.

Brees had more trouble than you would suspect with 56 percent of the vote against Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Josh Freeman.

Woodhead defeated Johnson convincingly with 62 percent of the vote. Woodhead is up against New York Giants receiver Hakeem Nicks. Woodhead is an interesting candidate because he has fans in both the New York and Boston markets.

The closest first-round winner was San Francisco 49ers linebacker Patrick Willis at 54 percent over the Seattle Seahawks' 12th Man.

The biggest blowout was Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan at 89 percent over Carolina Panthers tackle Jordan Gross.

» NFC Draft Watch: East | West | North | South » AFC: East | West | North | South

Each Thursday leading up to the NFL draft (April 28-30), the ESPN.com NFL blog network will take a division-by-division look at key aspects of the draft. Today's topic: draft rewind -- examining the past five drafts.

Buffalo Bills

Best choice: Defensive lineman Kyle Williams. Only three players in the Bills' past five draft classes have gone to a Pro Bowl. Two of them, Williams and safety Jairus Byrd, still are on the team. Williams was a 2006 fifth-round pick who has emerged as one of the NFL's top interior pass-rushers.

Worst choice: Defensive end John McCargo. The Bills traded up to select McCargo 26th overall in 2006. He has started one game since then. He was a healthy scratch for 15 games last year. The Bills tried to deal him to the Indianapolis Colts in 2009, but he failed his physical and was sent back.

Bubble player: Left tackle Demetrius Bell. On the surface, a starting left tackle from the seventh round sounds like a steal. But when you consider the Bills have banked on Bell and avoided drafting other tackles early enough to compete with him for three years, then you'd expect Bell to be an obvious franchise player. He has been OK, but far from a clear-cut solution.

Miami Dolphins

Best choice: Left tackle Jake Long. There's not much to discuss here aside from wondering how the Dolphins would be different had they drafted Matt Ryan No. 1 in 2008 instead. But Long undoubtedly has been their best draft choice of the past five years. He's an elite blocker and protector. He has been chosen for three Pro Bowls in three seasons.

Worst choice: Quarterback Pat White. The most regrettable pick of the Bill Parcells-Jeff Ireland regime was White at 44th overall in 2009. Not even former general manager Randy Mueller's fateful 2007 draft -- two of 10 picks still on the roster -- had a dud like White, who was cut after one season and retired from baseball seven months later.

Bubble player: Defensive end Jared Odrick. Last year's first-round draft choice is in a tough spot. Odrick played one game because of a hairline leg fracture. While the rookie was out, the Dolphins' three-man defensive front was cemented. Right end Randy Starks went to the Pro Bowl, while some thought left end Kendall Langford had the better season. And don't expect Starks to return to nose tackle to make way for Odrick. The Dolphins placed their franchise tag on nose tackle Paul Soliai.

New England Patriots

Best choice: Inside linebacker Jerod Mayo. Since the Patriots drafted Mayo 10th in 2008, he has led them in tackles all three years, won The Associated Press Defensive Rookie of the Year Award, has been defensive captain the past two seasons, was named first-team All-Pro last year and went to the Pro Bowl.

Worst choice: Wide receiver Chad Jackson. The Patriots traded with the Green Bay Packers to move up 16 spots and select Jackson 36th overall in 2006. Who did the Packers get with the 52nd pick? Greg Jennings. Injuries and lack of commitment forced Jackson out of New England after two seasons and 13 catches.

Bubble player: Safety Brandon Meriweather. For the most part, Meriweather has been successful. The 24th pick in 2007 has been to a pair of Pro Bowls. But how they voted him a starter last year is a mystery. Bill Belichick removed him from the starting lineup for three games because of disappointing play. That plus Meriweather's presence at a recent multiple shooting in his hometown raises questions about which way his career is going.

New York Jets

Best choice: Cornerback Darrelle Revis. The Jets not only drafted him 14th in 2007, but also spent second- and fifth-round picks to move up 11 spots for the chance. He quickly established himself as an elite lockdown cornerback. As long as he stays healthy, he should remain in the conversation for defensive player of the year for a while.

Worst choice: Defensive end Vernon Gholston. He's one of the biggest busts in franchise history. The Jets used the sixth pick of the 2008 draft on a player they thought would terrorize quarterbacks. The Jets cut him after three seasons and zero sacks.

Bubble player: Running back Shonn Greene. The Jets traded up to make Greene, the reigning Doak Walker Award winner at the time, the first pick on the second day of the 2009 draft. Greene has been solid, but he has played a supporting role to Thomas Jones and then LaDainian Tomlinson. Will 2011 be the season he takes over the lead?

How might the Miami Dolphins' decision to draft Jake Long first overall in 2008 impact what the Carolina Panthers do with the top pick this year?

The Panthers could take a quarterback because the importance of the position demands it. That, in turn, would influence what the Buffalo Bills do at No. 3.

When the Dolphins selected Long, they declined to grab a franchise quarterback in Matt Ryan, who went third overall to the Atlanta Falcons.

In December, we revisited Miami's decision to draft Long over Ryan with a blog entry that generated more than 200 comments discussing the merits.

Long is an elite left tackle, a three-time Pro Bowler. But a left tackle's significance becomes marginalized when he's not protecting an effective quarterback. The Dolphins drafted Chad Henne in the second round that year, and he hasn't worked out as hoped.

Ryan, meanwhile, has guided the Falcons to the playoffs two of his three seasons.

That could be a lesson for Carolina this year.

ESPN's Adam Schefter pondered the theory Carolina won't be able to pass up Auburn quarterback Cam Newton or Missouri quarterback Blaine Gabbert by choosing Auburn defensive tackle Nick Fairley or Clemson defensive end Da'Quan Bowers.

The Buffalo Bills have locked up the third overall pick in April's draft. The Miami Dolphins own the 15th choice.

The order is set through the seventh pick. The winner of Sunday's night game will impact the rest of the order. But the Dolphins will be slotted 15th no matter what, according to ESPN Stats & Information.

Playoff teams are slotted based on when they're eliminated from the tournament. We must wait to learn where the New England Patriots and New York Jets will select.

The order so far:

1. Carolina Panthers
2. Denver Broncos
3. Buffalo Bills
4. Cincinnati Bengals
5. Arizona Cardinals
6. Cleveland Browns
7. San Francisco 49ers

Who will the Bills select?

I have no clue. Neither does anybody else.

We have four months to find out what their options might be after they comb through their roster, conduct the offseason evaluation process, pick up or lose players via free agency and then scout and interview hundreds of college prospects who will fluctuate with every combine workout, pro day, suspension, personal background disclosure or injury revelation.

And even then, once the Bills were on the clock eight months ago, how many people predicted they would draft running back C.J. Spiller?

That's why it's folly at this juncture to guess who the Bills -- or any other team -- will target in the first round, let alone assign the name of a specific candidate.

But here's what we can do for Bills fans. We can take a look at the recent history of third overall picks.

2010: Gerald McCoy, Buccaneers defensive tackle

2009: Tyson Jackson, Chiefs defensive end

2008: Matt Ryan, Falcons quarterback

2007: Joe Thomas, Browns tackle

2006: Vince Young, Texans quarterback

2005: Braylon Edwards, Browns receiver

2004: Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals receiver

2003: Andre Johnson, Texans receiver

2002: Joey Harrington, Lions quarterback

2001: Gerard Warren, Browns defensive lineman

2000: Chris Samuels, Redskins tackle

The Miami Dolphins have been a lost franchise when it comes to quarterback.

Since Dan Marino's retirement, they've drafted duds (John Beck, Pat White), passed on studs (Drew Brees, Matt Ryan) and chased scuds (Daunte Culpepper, Trent Green).

Monday on the AFC East blog, I wondered where the Dolphins would be had they chosen Ryan first overall in 2008 instead of left tackle Jake Long.

Luis DeLoureiro of NFLStatsAnalysis.net also examined the Dolphins' ongoing quarterback woes for a piece on "The Fifth Down" blog at NYTimes.com.

Chad Henne certainly hasn't looked like the answer. The Dolphins this upcoming offseason probably will resume their decade-long search for the most important player on their roster.

DeLoureiro noted the Dolphins are one of only seven NFL teams to have avoided drafting a quarterback in the first round since 1998. The others are the New England Patriots, Carolina Panthers, Dallas Cowboys, Kansas City Chiefs, New Orleans Saints and Seattle Seahawks. All except the Dolphins and Panthers have their man identified.

Counting on Tom Brady- or Tony Romo-type luck isn't a sound organizational strategy.

DeLoureiro pointed out the Dolphins have preferred to spend second-round picks on quarterbacks. They did so five straight drafts, trading for A.J. Feeley and Culpepper and then selecting Beck, Henne and White.

A dozen quarterbacks have been drafted in the second round since 2001. Henne and Jimmy Clausen are the only two starting for the teams that took them. Kordell Stewart and Jake Plummer are the only two second-round quarterbacks to have a degree of success since 1990.

DeLoureiro wrote:

For almost 20 years, Dan Marino was the face of the Dolphins. Although he didn’t win a title, he broke just about every significant single-season and career passing record. One would think that, more than anyone, the Dolphins would understand the value of a franchise quarterback. But the team has opted to avoid the risk involved with first-round quarterbacks. Unfortunately, they have also lost out on the reward that comes with first-round quarterbacks.