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ORCHARD PARK, N.Y. -- Marcell Dareus didn't stand at the lectern at One Bills Drive as much as he loomed.

Dareus probably had to pay the tailor overtime for the suit he wore Friday afternoon. He's 6-foot-3 and 319 pounds, but seemed bigger than that.

He made a colossal impression when he was introduced to local reporters.

Dareus, the third overall draft choice Thursday night, was more prominent with his words than he was with his stature.

When explaining his approach to football and life, Alabama's star defensive lineman shared an anecdote about his mother. Michelle Luckey spent much of her life confined to a wheelchair because of congestive heart failure. She raised six sons and a daughter.

"Her whole drive was to never give up," Dareus said. "When she was on her death bed -- she was on her death bed a couple of times -- but one time I asked 'Mom, why are you still fighting?' I was in middle school. It was just a crazy question. 'Why are you still fighting?'

"She looked at me and said, 'I have seven kids. Do you want me to be gone now, or do you want me to just keep fighting?' I said, 'I want you to keep fighting.' She said, 'All right then. You go over there and sit down.' She rolled over and went back to sleep."

Draft followers may already know Dareus' tribulations. ESPN.com senior writer Jeffri Chadiha told the tale last week with a feature story.

Dareus' mother died last May, the latest in a series of heartaches. His father, a Haitian immigrant, died when Dareus was 6. The grandmother who helped raise Dareus died when he was 13. His high school coach died in a car crash right after Dareus signed with the Crimson Tide.

"I can't give up," Dareus said Friday. "When you can go to sleep in pain, you don't know what pain is. That's my whole thing. I got a little hurt elbow, a hamstring, an ankle, that's not going to keep me from playing.

"As long as she could go to sleep, wake up, put food on the table and be in pain 24 hours a day, the little things I go through is nothing."

Bills fans can't help but get excited about that type of gravitas from a potential star.

The Bills haven't been to the playoffs in 11 years. They've experienced more embarrassment than glory, especially when it comes to their first-round draft choices. Fans have endured busts and insulting malcontents such as Erik Flowers, Mike Williams, Willis McGahee, Marshawn Lynch and John McCargo.

Nobody can say for sure whether Dareus will be the real deal, but he has gotten off to a great start.

We need to keep in mind Dareus is fresh off the interview circuit from the NFL scouting combine, his pro day and a series of private meetings with this coach or that general manager from the West Coast to the Eastern Seaboard. Draft prospects are trained to answer interview questions. Dareus probably wasn't going to face a pitch he couldn't crush out of the park at Friday afternoon's news conference.

Dareus said all the right things. So have a parade of phonies throughout the years in the NFL.

"We're very pleased to have a man of not only his ability, but the man that he is," Buffalo head coach Chan Gailey said. "He's a great person in his own right, and he's going to represent our organization extremely well on the field and off the field for many years to come."

Gailey's testimony means something. He values high-character players maybe more than others in his profession. You get the sense Gailey would rather lead a mediocre player he respects than an elite athlete he doesn't.

Dareus conveyed himself as a grinder, the embodiment of Western New York's working spirit and the antithesis of Buffalo's first-round pick from two years ago.

Outside linebacker Aaron Maybin, the 11th pick in 2009, has been all flash and no substance. Before Maybin signed his NFL contract, he had a rap song that mentioned Maybach luxury cars, pinky rings, Circoc vodka, Nike endorsement deals and all the heads he was going to knock off.

Maybin has as many NFL sacks as Dareus does.

Dareus is about to strike it rich, too. But he said he's not going to keep his showmanship limited to Sundays.

"I want to be a pro on and off the field," Dareus said. "I want to handle myself in the community, back home with my brothers and sister, and when I do have kids I want to be a pro around them, let them know and set an example.

"Sometimes you have it. And even if you worked for it, that doesn't mean you have to flaunt it and blow it all away."

Dareus recalled after he visited One Bills Drive last month, he called one of his brothers and said "Buffalo might be my city." He said it reminded him of Tuscaloosa, a city with everything you need but a smaller feel and rabid fans who support the team.

If Dareus proves sincere about his feelings and can back up the Bills' scouting department's faith in him, then fans will have a new hero in their midst.

"I just want to go out there and give everything I have," Dareus said.

Buffalo Bills general manager Buddy Nix recently said rare circumstances would be required to trade the club's third overall draft choice. He sounded fixed on making that pick, even though he has no idea how much it will cost him.

There's curiosity over what the New England Patriots will do with their abundance of draft assets. They have enough picks that they could trade up into the top 10. Yet they don't know how rich that territory will be.

We know the NFL draft will begin Thursday night. Unclear are the dollars it will take to sign those picks.

Rookie cost controls almost certainly will be part of the next collective bargaining agreement, but will that deal be hammered out before the 2011 season?

If not, then teams might operate under last year's rules. That would mean more outrageous guaranteed dollars to prospects who haven't snapped an NFL chinstrap. A league source calculated NFL teams have committed over $3.154 billion in guarantees to first-round draft choices since 2000.

The Associated Press reported the NFL's proposal for a rookie pay system -- made before the lockout -- included $300 million in diverted funds that instead would go to veteran contracts and player benefits and slow the rapid growth of guaranteed first-round money (up 233 percent since 2000).

The money would be saved by shrinking the already-in-place rookie salary pool system, where the league allocates a certain number of dollars to be spent based on the number of picks and their spots in the order.

Also in the reported proposal: first-round contracts would be capped at five years under the proposal. All other draft picks would be capped at four years. The player's maximum allowable salary would go down if he hadn't signed by training camp, a deterrent to holding out.

Buffalo News reporter Mark Gaughan recently estimated the Bills would save roughly $15 million on their No. 3 pick with rookie cost controls. That certainly would make another Aaron Maybinesque pick more digestible.

With all this in mind, let's examine how much guaranteed money AFC East clubs have spent on their first-round draft picks since 2000. Data provided from the aforementioned league source shows the Patriots have spent most efficiently, the New York Jets have spent the most total dollars and the Miami Dolphins have spent the most per player.

The Dolphins have drafted eight first-rounders since 2000 and spent an average of $12.043 million in guaranteed money. That figure ranks eighth among all NFL clubs, but those players averaged only 37 starts for Miami.

Only the Buffalo Bills averaged fewer starts from their first-rounders at 36.2, but the Bills rank 19th in average guaranteed dollars committed.

Left tackle Jake Long's mammoth contract inflates Miami's dollar figure. The top 2008 pick became the highest-paid offensive lineman in NFL history days before commissioner Roger Goodell said Long's name at Radio City Music Hall. Running back Ronnie Brown was rewarded with $19.5 million guaranteed as the second pick in 2005.

Those picks were successful, but the Dolphins also committed $13.865 million to receiver Ted Ginn, $9.016 million to cornerback Jason Allen and $7.133 million to defensive end Jared Odrick.

The Jets' massive guarantee total includes left tackle D'Brickashaw Ferguson ($29.6 million), quarterback Mark Sanchez ($28 million), outside whatever Vernon Gholston ($21 million), cornerback Darrelle Revis ($14.7 million) and defensive tackle Dewayne Robertson ($14.7 million).

There are a couple royal busts in there, but the Jets still have spent relatively well. Despite picking in roughly the same average first-round slot as the Dolphins and Bills since 2000, the Jets have averaged nearly 61 starts per player.

The Bills' big-ticket items have been running back C.J. Spiller ($18.9 million), left tackle Mike Williams ($14.4 million) and Maybin ($10.9 million).

Buffalo's first-round picks ranked 19th in the NFL when it came to average guaranteed dollars.

The Patriots have committed eight figures in guaranteed money to only two of their 10 first-round selections since 2000 because of their penchant to trade back. Their average first-rounder is taken 20.7th overall.

Inside linebacker Jerod Mayo ($13.8 million) and defensive end Richard Seymour ($11 million) are the Patriots' lone top-10 picks under Bill Belichick and look like basement bargains compared to other names mentioned above.

ORCHARD PARK, N.Y. -- Buffalo Bills fans have pondered some persistent questions over the years.

How would life have changed if Scott Norwood made that kick?

What will happen to the team when Ralph Wilson passes away?

Was the Music City Miracle really a forward lateral?

How on earth does Tom Modrak still have a job?

Modrak is Buffalo's vice president of college scouting. Modrak, formerly a Pittsburgh Steelers scout during their Steel Curtain years and director of football operations with the Philadelphia Eagles, has held the Bills' top scouting job since May 2001 and worked his first draft for them in 2002.

In that time, the Bills' streak of seasons without a playoff appearance has extended to 11 and counting. Despite holding prime draft-order slots, they have repeatedly squandered them with maddening first-round decisions.

The list is enough to make the most optimistic Bills fan groan: pass-rusher Aaron Maybin (zero sacks) 11th overall instead of Brian Orakpo (19.5 sacks) two years ago; small-school cornerback Leodis McKelvin 11th overall instead of Pro Bowl left tackle Ryan Clady in 2008; safety Donte Whitner with the eighth pick in 2006 and then trading up for defensive tackle John McCargo; trading up for quarterback J.P. Losman in 2004; useless tackle Mike Williams fifth in 2002.

"Certainly we've had our misses up at the top," Modrak said Tuesday at a news conference to preview next week's draft. "We've done pretty well in the middle and at the end, the non-glamour kind of picks. But we've missed some. That is regrettable."

There are additional selections one can criticize: wide receiver James Hardy in the second round; running back C.J. Spiller ninth overall even though the Bills had a pair of 1,000-yard rushers already ...

OK. I'll stop now. That's enough to illustrate why there's frustration over Modrak and his scouting department's evaluation skills.

The fact Modrak joined the Bills to serve under former president Tom Donahoe -- an executive Wilson and Bills fans came to despise -- only adds to fascination of Modrak's continued employment.

Now that I've set the table, let's yank the tablecloth out from underneath the plasticware.

Data suggest the Bills haven't drafted much worse than the average NFL team since 2002.

ESPN researcher John Fisher -- he claims no relation to St. John Fisher, the namesake of the college where the Bills hold their training camp -- shuffled some spreadsheets and came up with some information that's not particularly damning when compared to the rest of the NFL.

• The Bills have drafted five Pro Bowlers with Modrak in charge of scouting. That's tied for 14th in the league. One of those Pro Bowlers was Willis McGahee for the Baltimore Ravens, but Modrak was the chief scout who drafted him. What the Bills did with McGahee afterward that isn't his fault. Same goes for Marshawn Lynch.
• Although a game started for the Bills isn't as impressive as a game started for the New England Patriots the past nine years, Bills draftees from the first through third rounds have started 804 games, 15th in the league.
• Bills draftees from the fourth round or later have started 417 games, eighth in the league.
• When it comes to individual statistics accumulated with the teams that drafted them, Bills taken from 2002 onward have ranked third in 1,000-yard rushing seasons, tied for seventh in 1,000-yard receiving seasons, 20th in total sacks and 19th in total interceptions.

While the Bills have missed badly on several of their prominent selections, they have done quite well in the latter part of the draft with gems such as cornerback and Pro Bowl kick returner Terrence McGee (fourth round in 2003), Pro Bowl defensive lineman Kyle Williams (fifth round in 2006), receiver Steve Johnson (seventh round in 2008) and left tackle Demetrius Bell (seventh round in 2008).

Top running back Fred Jackson and perennial Pro Bowl left tackle Jason Peters -- traded to Philly two years ago -- weren't drafted at all.

"If you look at other teams, they do it. They miss at the top," Modrak said. "When you don't win, it's magnified. It looks bad.

"But I think from a strictly homer point-of-view [late-round success] is the work and the labor that goes into it and the detail that's paid to those kinds of things. That does not say that other teams don't do the same thing, but we have a good group, and we fortunately have done that."

The Bills have had some obvious blind spots in the draft.

A refusal to pick a tackle earlier than the fifth round since 2002 has hurt them. Peters' success as a converted tight end is a factor in that trend, but the Bills were having contract problems with him while he still was on the roster. Foresight would've been helpful. But that's an organizational philosophy more than Modrak's domain.

The Bills' track record at tight end is miserable, too. They've drafted five: Tim Euhus, Kevin Everett, Derek Schouman, Derek Fine and Shawn Nelson. Everett was the lone selection sooner than the fourth round. A broken neck while covering a kickoff on opening day in 2007 ended his career.

That tight end quintet has combined to score five NFL touchdowns. Of the 143 tight ends drafted since Modrak joined the Bills, 43 of them have scored more than five touchdowns individually.

Some might also say finding a quarterback has been a failure. Starting quarterbacks, however, aren't easy for any team to locate.

Forty-seven quarterbacks have been drafted within the first three rounds since 2002. The only three teams not included in this pursuit have been the Indianapolis Colts, New Orleans Saints and Dallas Cowboys. The Bills took two within the first three rounds, Losman 22nd overall in 2004 and Trent Edwards 92nd in 2007.

That league-wide group yielded nine Pro Bowlers, but just two of them -- 24th overall pick Aaron Rodgers and third-rounder Matt Schaub -- weren't selected in the top 11. Rodgers and Schaub served as backups for three seasons before they became starters.

Bills general manager Buddy Nix explained that scouting is only one of three critical phases that determine whether a draft pick explodes or fizzles.

"You've got to pick the right guy," Nix said Tuesday. "He's got to have enough athletic ability and enough intelligence, production to do the job, which is what you spend the year doing. We're scouts and personnel guys.

"The second phase, now -- and don't make light of it because it's just as important -- is coaching, strength coaches, trainers. That's the second phase, and both of those things have to be in place. If not, the development of the guy is retarded.

"I'm not going to name teams, but you can name teams every year that get top guys and they don't get any better. They actually may go the other way, and it's the developmental part."

Chan Gailey is Buffalo's fourth head coach -- fifth if you count interim coach Perry Fewell -- since Modrak came aboard. Coordinators have passed through a revolving door. The Bills also have overhauled their strength and conditioning program a couple times.

Nix then stressed that even if the precisely correct draft choice is made and the proper infrastructure is in place, a third phase still can torpedo development. The player can ruin his future if he's "not willing to be a professional and do everything it takes."

"You can go back and look at the so-called busts, and it's one of these three phases," Nix said. "You've got to have it all for them to be really good.

"So even though we put it all on one thing -- 'That was a terrible draft. That was a bust. Those idiots don't know.' -- that's just about a third of it."

Another element that must be considered when discussing Buffalo drafts is the question of who makes the final pick.

Nix and Gailey have been clear Nix makes the final call, although Wilson still can exercise his ownership privilege.

Before Nix became GM last year, trying to decipher who was to credit or blame for a Bills draft choice was like a "Three Stooges" scene. The irate boss hears a commotion, storms into the room and asks "Say! What's the wise idea? Who did this?" Moe pointed at Larry. Curly pointed at Moe. Larry pointed at Curly.

Modrak has been a constant since 2002, but there have been many voices in the Bills' draft room in that period, from Donahoe to GM Marv Levy to chief operating officer Russ Brandon to the various opinionated head coaches who lobbied for prospects they hotly desired.

The Bills' scouting department clearly needs to step its game up to help turn around the franchise. They'll never be the kind of team that lures top free agents because of their market conditions. Buffalo simply isn't as sexy as Miami or San Diego or New York and doesn't offer a perennial chance to win like New England or Pittsburgh does.

But, believe it or not, the Bills' drafts could have been substantially worse since Modrak arrived.

In a column for ESPN Insider, draft institution Mel Kiper listed the 40 biggest non-quarterback busts since he put out his first draft guide in 1978.

Five AFC East picks made the cut. Here they are along with Kiper's comment:

• Linebacker Tom Cousineau, Bills, first overall in 1979: "He was kind of an undersized guy, even in 1979, and his career didn't match his work in Columbus."
• Running back Sammie Smith, Dolphins, ninth overall in 1989: "Smith played with a bruising style for FSU but wasn't explosive enough in the NFL."
• Tackle Mike Williams, Bills, fourth overall in 2002: "An absolute mammoth at 370-plus pounds, Williams got starts but never lived up."
• Defensive tackle Dewayne Robertson, Jets, fourth overall 2004: "Only 16 sacks in his career for a guy we thought would really penetrate and be a menace."
• Outside linebacker Vernon Gholston, Jets, sixth overall in 2008: "Finally time to call it what it is. Amazing physical skills, but not even Rex Ryan could save him."

» NFC Draft Watch: East | West | North | South » AFC: East | West | North | South

Each Thursday leading up to the NFL draft (April 28-30), the ESPN.com NFL blog network will take a division-by-division look at key aspects of the draft. Today's topic: biggest team needs.

Buffalo Bills

Where would you like to start?

Offense? How about left tackle, right tackle, tight end and -- if there's a great one still on the draft board -- quarterback?

Defense? How about the line, outside linebacker, inside linebacker, cornerback and safety?

Special teams? OK, the Bills are fine there.

But kicker, punter and running back are about the only positions the Bills can draft third overall and not help themselves.

The most pressing needs, however, are tackle and outside linebacker. The Bills haven't drafted an offensive tackle earlier than the fifth round since taking Mike Williams in the first round in 2002, and their line play shows that. They have tried to coach up late draft picks (Demetrius Bell, Ed Wang) and rummaged through free agency (Cornell Green, Mansfield Wrotto, Jonathan Scott, Jamon Meredith) rather than acquire that prized blindside protector.

The Bills were so desperate at outside linebacker they plucked the injury-ravaged Shawne Merriman off waivers last year and then, even though he got hurt again minutes into his first workout, gave him a contract extension.

They can't bank on Merriman to anchor their pass rush. Yet even if he can contribute, they'll need more help. The Bills recorded 27 sacks last year. Only three teams had fewer.

Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins probably will need a running back. They could stand to upgrade at quarterback if they can.

But they definitely need interior offensive linemen.

They recently re-signed left guard Richie Incognito to an extension, but they still have problems at center and right guard. Although they have two solid book-end tackles in Pro perennial Bowl left tackle Jake Long and veteran Vernon Carey, they've been a mess in between for the past three years.

The Dolphins need to upgrade their power running game. Despite having a capable and healthy backfield tandem in Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams last season, the Dolphins ranked 21st in rushing yards, 29th in yards per carry and 29th in rushing touchdowns.

A stud running back certainly can help, and the Dolphins might have little choice but to take one with their 15th selection. Brown's and Williams' contracts are up. That's why so many draft analysts project the Dolphins will take Alabama running back Mark Ingram and then address the O-line later.

New England Patriots

Funny how things work for the Patriots when it comes to draft picks. The reigning AFC East champs might have the fewest needs but have the most draft picks at their disposal.

The Patriots went 14-2 last season and own two draft choices in each of the first three rounds. So the Patriots have the flexibility to go any number of directions.

The most obvious need is outside linebacker. The Patriots' entire outside linebacking corps mustered 13.5 sacks last year. Dolphins outside linebacker Cameron Wake generated 14 sacks all by himself.

Offensive line is another concern because there are so many question marks. Right guard Stephen Neal retired. Left guard Logan Mankins is upset. Left tackle Matt Light isn't signed. Nick Kaczur is coming off serious back surgery. The timing is right to bring in some fresh O-line blood.

The Patriots had one of the NFL's most entertaining backfields last year, with BenJarvus Green-Ellis rushing for over 1,000 yards and Danny Woodhead making the Jets look foolish for cutting him. But each running back has his limitations, and the Patriots could be on the lookout for an all-purpose back adept at catching a pass and converting a third-and-short.

New York Jets

The Jets are in a weird spot. They finished the season as a team with talent at virtually every position.

But they have a crowded group of free agents and couldn't bring themselves to sign any (aside from giving inside linebacker David Harris the franchise tag) until a new collective bargaining agreement was in place. The Jets want to know what the new salary cap is before moving forward.

That leaves a lot of loose ends for the Jets heading into the draft. Will they need a receiver to replace Santonio Holmes or Braylon Edwards? A cornerback to replace Antonio Cromartie?

The needs we can bank on are outside linebacker and safety.

The Jets must generate a better pass rush and still need to recover from the Vernon Gholston pick that set them back. Outside linebacker Bryan Thomas is competent, but no star. He led the Jets with just six sacks. Calvin Pace had 5.5 sacks. The recently released Jason Taylor added five.

Safety is an area of emphasis because they could have stood to upgrade even before Brodney Pool, Eric Smith and James Ihedigbo became free agents. Jim Leonhard is a Rex Ryan favorite but recovering from a broken shin.

When word got out the New York Jets would release defensive end Vernon Gholston, I solicited your nominees for the AFC East's biggest draft busts.

These disappointments received the most votes for each club:

Buffalo Bills

1. Defensive end Aaron Maybin (11th in 2009)
2. Tackle Mike Williams (fourth in 2002)
3. Quarterback J.P. Losman (22nd in 2004)
4. Defensive tackle John McCargo (26th in 2006)
5. Defensive end Erik Flowers (26th in 2000)

Comment: Sadly, Buffalo's list suggests readers don't remember the team before the Music City Miracle. Last year's strong safety, Donte Whitner, finished sixth. Epic busts Walt Patulski (first in 1972), Tony Hunter (12th in 1983) and Perry Tuttle (19th in 1982) received only one vote each. Nobody mentioned running back Terry Miller (fifth in 1978).

Miami Dolphins

1. Receiver Yatil Green (15th in 1997)
2. Receiver Ted Ginn (ninth in 2007)
3. Running back John Avery (29th in 1998)
4. Cornerback Jamar Fletcher (26th in 2001)
5. Receiver Randal Hill (23rd in 1991), Eric Kumerow (16th in 1988), running back Sammie Smith (ninth in 1989)

Comment: The Dolphins were the most nominated team in this exercise. They led with 16 nominees and the number of votes cast. Green didn't play in his rookie or sophomore seasons because of injuries and lasted eight games his third year. My pick would have been Kumerow, whose career consisted of three seasons, zero starts and five sacks.

New England Patriots

• Running back Laurence Maroney (21st in 2006)
• Receiver Chad Jackson (36th in 2006)
• Receiver Hart Lee Dykes (16th in 1989)
• Cornerback Chris Canty (29th in 1997)
• Offensive lineman Eugene Chung (13th in 1992), defensive end Kenneth Sims (first in 1982), linebacker Chris Singleton (eighth in 1990)

Comment: I was surprised Sims didn't receive more attention. He was the No. 1 choice ahead of Marcus Allen, Gerald Riggs, Mike Munchak, Jim McMahon and Chip Banks. Maroney received the most votes, but he also generated the most spirited debate because many readers disagreed he should be considered a bust. Jackson was a second-round pick, but the Patriots traded up 16 spots to get him.

New York Jets

1. Running back Blair Thomas (second in 1990)
2. Defensive end Vernon Gholston (sixth in 2008)
3. Tight end Kyle Brady (ninth in 1995)
4. Defensive tackle DeWayne Robertson (fourth in 2003)
5. Receiver Johnny "Lam" Jones (second in 1980)

Comment: There was a lot of material to work with here. I was satisfied readers emphasized the magnitude of the bust over the freshness of Gholston's release by voting for Thomas. The next running back off the board in 1990 was Emmitt Smith.

Every NFL team has drafted a few colossal busts.

The Buffalo Bills drafted Notre Dame defensive end Walt Patulski first overall in 1972 and Ohio State linebacker Tom Cousineau first overall in 1979.

The Miami Dolphins selected Florida State running back Sammie Smith ninth in 1989. The New York Jets selected Southern Methodist defensive back Russell Carter 10th in 1984.

Recent years have brought us Dolphins receiver Ted Ginn, Bills tackle Mike Williams and New England Patriots receiver Chad Jackson.

After spending a few days in Indianapolis at the NFL scouting combine and upon learning Monday night the New York Jets have parted ways with 2008 sixth overall draft choice Vernon Gholston, let's gather a list of the biggest busts in AFC East history.

Submit your candidates for each team in the comments section below this article and state your case.

I will compile the suggestions and come up with a worst five draft picks for each franchise later this week.

In honor of the Oakland Raiders dumping quarterback JaMarcus Russell three years after they drafted him No. 1 overall, I've put together a list of each AFC East team's biggest busts.

These are my picks, and they’re open for debate. Add your picks in the comments section below.

Buffalo Bills

1. Walt Patulski, defensive end (first overall, 1972): Who? Exactly the point. He played four uninspiring years for the Bills and one more for the St. Louis Cardinals.

2. Mike Williams, tackle (fourth overall, 2002): A good case can be made for Williams to be at the top of this list. He spent four mediocre seasons at right tackle, not even making it over to the blindside.

3. Tony Hunter, tight end (12th overall, 1983): In arguably the greatest first round in NFL draft history, the Bills managed to find a dud two slots ahead of the pick they used on Jim Kelly. Hunter lasted two seasons in Buffalo, starting 12 games and catching 69 passes.

4. Terry Miller, running back (fifth overall, 1978): It's tough to replace O.J. Simpson, but the Bills thought they had their man with Miller. He rushed for 1,060 yards and seven touchdowns as a rookie. Over his next -- and final -- three seasons combined, he rushed for 523 yards and one touchdown.

5. Perry Tuttle, receiver (19th overall, 1982): In two seasons with the Bills, he managed four starts and 24 receptions. Taken one slot after him was Mike Quick.

Miami Dolphins

1. Eric Kumerow, defensive end (16th overall, 1988): Three seasons, zero starts, five sacks.

2. Billy Milner, tackle (25th overall, 1995): He lasted two NFL seasons, starting nine games at right tackle as a rookie. In his second season, the Dolphins traded him to the St. Louis Rams for Troy Drayton. The Rams cut Milner, who retired.

3. Sammie Smith, running back (ninth overall, 1989): He showed promise here and there, rushing for 831 yards and eight touchdowns in his second season. But he was hated by Dolfans for his costly fumbles.

4. Jason Allen, defensive back (16th overall, 2006): He has made a dozen career starts and contributes most of his time to special teams.

5. Yatil Green, receiver (15th overall, 1997): I nearly listed Ted Ginn here, but he added value as a return specialist and actually won a game for the Dolphins last year. Green's career lasted eight games.

New England Patriots

1. Kenneth Sims, defensive end (first overall, 1982): Sims played a full season just once in his eight seasons and played three games or fewer three times. He recorded 17 sacks

2. Eugene Chung, offensive lineman (13th overall, 1992): Chung started 14 games as a rookie and all 16 as a sophomore, but that was all. Chung played three games in 1994 and was gone.

3. Chris Singleton, linebacker, and Ray Agnew, defensive tackle (eighth and 10th overall, 1990): I couldn't pick one without the other. The Pats traded the third overall pick to the Seattle Seahawks for these two. The Seahawks took future Hall of Famer Cortez Kennedy. In between Singleton and Agnew, the Dolphins drafted potential Hall of Fame tackle Richmond Webb.

4. Hart Lee Dykes, receiver (16th overall, 1989): Two seasons, 18 starts, 83 receptions, seven touchdowns, out of football.

5. Andy Katzenmoyer, linebacker (28th overall, 1999): A neck injury was at issue, but he left the team without permission and was cut after his second season. He made 14 starts.

New York Jets

1. Blair Thomas, running back (second overall, 1990): Over four seasons with the Jets, he rushed for five touchdowns.

2. Johnny "Lam" Jones, receiver (second overall, 1980): He finished his career with 138 receptions for 2,322 yards and 13 touchdowns. Art Monk might've been the better choice.

3. Dave Cadigan, guard (eighth overall, 1988): He spent six seasons with the Jets, but he totaled 13 starts through his first three seasons. The Minnesota Vikings found Hall of Fame guard Randall McDaniel with the 19th pick.

4. Reggie Rembert, receiver (28th overall, 1990): A triple whiff. The Jets couldn't sign Rembert and were forced to deal him. They sent him to the Cincinnati Bengals for offensive lineman Scott Jones and linebacker Joe Kelly. Rembert finished his career with 36 catches and one touchdown.

5. Alex Van Dyke, receiver (31st overall, 1996): I considered Vernon Gholston here, but went with Van Dyke based on his 26 career catches and three receivers taken soon after him. Amani Toomer, Muhsin Muhammad and Bobby Engram did OK.

» NFC Big Question: East | West | North | South » AFC: East | West | North | South

Is former Syracuse receiver Mike Williams worth the risk?

Williams is one of the most intriguing players in this year's draft. While most draft observers have focused on Oklahoma State receiver Dez Bryant as a high-risk, high-reward prospect, Williams has been overlooked despite the fact he might present an even greater conundrum.

All four AFC East teams have needs at receiver. Williams has visited with the Miami Dolphins. The Buffalo Bills attended his pro day, which took place Monday in their backyard at the Thurman Thomas Training Complex.

Williams has star talent -- maybe more than Bryant, who's expected to be the first receiver drafted, possesses. But teams are wary of the problems Williams experienced at Syracuse. He was suspended for 2008 for cheating on an exam. He was suspended for a game last year, and eventually either quit or was kicked off the team -- depending on the story -- for unclear reasons.

At the NFL scouting combine, Williams was peppered with questions about his background and dedication. He declined to explain the reasons why he left Syracuse, but acknowledged it was important to show teams he's not a problem child.

"I want to let them know that I'm a nice person," Williams said then. "I'm a good person. School was just my problem. I had bad judgment when I was young. School has been my problem. I want to let them know I can play football and be there for that team.

"All through my life I was having a problem with grades. I didn't excel in school, that's not one of my strong points."

Since Williams is such a curious prospect, I asked Scouts Inc. analyst Steve Muench for his take.

"Williams plays like a first-round pick on film," Muench wrote in an e-mail. "He has the potential to develop into a crisp short-to-intermediate route runner. He is fast enough to stretch the field, and he catches the ball well.

"However, teams are unlikely to invest a first-round pick in him, and there's a good chance he slides to the third. Questions about his character and commitment to the game make him a risky pick. It doesn't help that he didn't run as well as expected at the combine or in his workout, and he appears to have gained some weight since leaving the Syracuse program."

In 31 games for Syracuse, Williams caught 133 passes for 2,044 yards and 20 touchdowns.

Buffalo News reporter Mark Gaughan noted Williams matched his combine 40-yard dash of 4.53 seconds on Monday. That's not awful for a receiver who's 6-foot-2 and about 220 pounds, but other receivers are much faster. Williams' vertical jump was 36.5 inches. His broad jump was 9 feet, 10 inches.

"I made some mistakes," Williams told Gaughan. "I've got to learn from my mistakes and make up for it. I've just tried to let all of them know that I can do this. This is what I do. I love football.

"If I don't go in the first round, I'm going to be the steal of the draft. I tell people that: It don't matter where I go. I'll be the steal of the draft. I'm going to be a good character guy and love my teammates."

» NFC Busts/Gems: East | West | North | South » AFC: East | West | North | South

» Draft Watch: Biggest needs (2/17) | Busts/gems (2/24) | Schemes, themes (3/3) | Recent history (3/10) | Needs revisited (3/17) | Under-the-radar needs (3/26) | History in that spot (3/31) | Draft approach (4/7) | Decision-makers (4/14) | Dream scenario/Plan B (4/21)

Each Wednesday leading up to the NFL draft (April 22-24), the ESPN.com blog network will take a division-by-division look at key aspects of the draft. Today's topic: Busts and late-round gems.

Buffalo Bills

The Bills' drafts have been pockmarked, at best. They haven't reached the playoffs in a decade, which means they should have benefited from desirable draft position throughout the 2000s. Even so, the Bills haven't obtained much star power in that span. A perusal of their draft history should come with a warning to Bills fans that it shouldn't be done without antacids. Only four Bills draft picks in the 2000s went to the Pro Bowl. The lone first-round choice to wear a Bills helmet in the Pro Bowl has been running back Marshawn Lynch, who did so as an alternate and lost his job to Fred Jackson last year. Their biggest bust was tackle Mike Williams, the fourth overall selection in 2002. Williams simply didn't have the heart for football and lasted three full seasons, none of which could be deemed remarkable. Buffalo's best draft choices in the 2000s have been top cornerback Terrence McGee and solid defensive tackle Kyle Williams. McGee was a fourth-rounder in 2003 and went to the Pro Bowl as a return man. Williams was a fifth-round pick in 2006 and for the most part has started since his rookie year, but there might not be a fit for him when the Bills transform into a 3-4 defense.

Miami Dolphins

The first player who comes to mind when considering Miami's recent busts is receiver and return man Ted Ginn. The ninth overall pick has come to symbolize the lost 2007 season under former general manager Randy Mueller and one-and-done coach Cam Cameron. The Dolphins had 10 draft choices in 2007, including four in the top 71, but only Ginn, defensive tackle Paul Soliai and punter Brandon Fields remain on the team. That class was a collective bust. Is it possible, however, that 2006 was worse? The Dolphins drafted five players (albeit three of them in the seventh round) and only one is on the roster. Defensive back Jason Allen, the 16th overall choice, has started 12 games in four seasons. The Dolphins have been overhauled so much under football operations czar Bill Parcells, most players on their roster haven't been around long enough to label draft gems or duds. Discoveries from previous regimes aren't with the club any longer. The Dolphins drafted guard Rex Hadnot in the sixth round in 2004. Tight end Randy McMichael, selected in 2002, might be the best fourth-round pick in franchise history. The greatest find on Miami's roster -- by far -- has been safety Yeremiah Bell, a sixth-round long shot from Division I-AA Eastern Kentucky. Bell didn't make the team as a rookie, fought his way up from the practice squad, overcame early injury problems and played in the Pro Bowl a few weeks ago.

New England Patriots

Tom Brady not only is the greatest Patriots' draft discovery, but also the best of his generation. The 199th pick of the 2000 draft -- 16 slots after Spergon Wynn -- went on to win four AFC championships, three Super Bowls and two Super Bowl MVP awards. He's a five-time Pro Bowler and owns a few records. More recently, center Dan Koppen has proven to be a nice acquisition in the fifth round of the 2003 draft. Koppen has been New England's starter since Week 2 of his rookie season. He was named to the Pro Bowl for 2007. The Patriots also were able to spin quarterback Matt Cassel, a 2005 seventh-round pick, into the 34th overall choice in last year's draft. As for busts, the Patriots haven't been immune. They have an impressive first-round track record, but tight ends Daniel Graham and Benjamin Watson were hiccups. New England took Graham 21st overall, but he was erratic and produced one good season before leaving via free agency. Watson's tenure will be remembered similarly, but with more injuries. Wide receiver Chad Jackson was another prominent pick who flamed out. The Patriots wanted him badly enough to trade up 16 slots to snag him 36th overall four years ago. He missed his entire rookie season with a hamstring injury and left New England after three seasons with a grand total of five receptions for 83 yards.

New York Jets

The Jets don't have a lot of recent picks to scan. Since Mike Tannenbaum took over as general manager in February 2006, the Jets have made only 23 selections. They've drafted 13 players over the past three years. Maybe it's too soon to be slapping the bust sticker on pass-rusher Vernon Gholston, but through two NFL seasons, the sixth overall pick from 2008 has started three games and has been a healthy scratch for three games. Gholston has yet to record a sack and has made only 10 solo tackles. Kellen Clemens also falls into the failure category. The Jets used the 49th pick on him. Second-round quarterbacks are supposed to play and get paid accordingly. The Jets were so down on Clemens, they made major gambles to keep him off the field, trading for Brett Favre and moving up to select Mark Sanchez fifth last April. The Jets have had success unearthing talent in the fourth round. The list includes running back Leon Washington (2006), safety Kerry Rhodes (2005) and receiver Jerricho Cotchery (2004). The Jets made a fine selection when they used a seventh-rounder on running back Derrick Ward in 2004. But Ward didn't make the roster. The New York Giants signed him off the Jets' practice squad. He won a Super Bowl with the Giants and rushed for 1,025 yards a year later.

To varying degrees, all four AFC East teams have a need for receivers and tight ends.

The Miami Dolphins still haven't identified a reliable, stretch-the-field target.

The New York Jets would love to get Mark Sanchez more help.

Randy Moss is predicting 2010 will be his last season with the New England Patriots, and slotmeister Wes Welker is recovering from an awful knee injury.

Terrell Owens and Josh Reed are unrestricted free agents for the Buffalo Bills.

With that in mind, let's drop by the NFL Draft Lab to see what analysis Mel Kiper and Todd McShay have concocted about prospects who can catch.

Buffalo fans will notice two local boys getting some attention: Syracuse receiver Mike Williams (from Buffalo's Riverside High) and Arizona tight end Rob Gronkowski (a native of suburban Amherst).

McShay considers Williams second to only Oklahoma State's Dez Bryant in terms of talent and a potential steal. Williams has character issues. Syracuse suspended him as a junior and he quit the team as a senior.

"Tons of baggage, there's no question about it," McShay said. "You've got to deal with him and have good leadership around him to keep the off-the-field trouble away. But if you can do that, I think he's the second most talented receiver in this year's class, and you can get him probably in the third or fourth round."

Kiper and McShay each have Gronkowski rated as their fifth-best receiver or tight end.

ORCHARD PARK, N.Y. -- My initial reaction when I heard the Buffalo Bills had promoted national scout Buddy Nix to general manager was, "This won't go over well with the fans."

The Bills went oh-for-the-aughts when it came to the postseason, but there was promise of new beginnings, with talk of hiring a Mike Shanahan or a Bill Cowher. A sad organization seemed on the verge of a desperately needed systemic change.

Then they not only hired from within, but owner Ralph Wilson revealed at a news conference the organization's short list of candidates produced two finalists -- and both of them were already on the payroll.

How depressing.

On the surface.

There's one important fact that is being overlooked in the immediate reaction to Nix's promotion: His fingerprints aren't on this train wreck. At least not yet.

Nix rejoined the Bills less than a year ago. He'd been a key member of the Bills' front office under general manager John Butler from 1993 through 2000. But when the Bills fired Butler, he took Nix with him to the San Diego Chargers, where they, along with A.J. Smith, ran one of the finest organizations of the past decade.

Nix wasn't here when the Bills drafted Mike Williams, J.P. Losman and John McCargo in the first round. He didn't anoint Trent Edwards the franchise quarterback. He didn't hire Dick Jauron.

I'm not predicting Nix will draft a LaDainian Tomlinson or swing a blockbuster trade to bring a Philip Rivers and a Shawne Merriman, but at least he has been around winning in the past decade, something that can't be said for many folks at One Bills Drive.

"I can see a little disappointment on your face that one of the geniuses is not standing up here," Nix told the assembled media Thursday. "I know this isn't quite what you expected.

"But I'm going to tell you this. It's kind of like getting up the morning after the draft and reading the newspaper and seeing where you got an A-plus, and two years later, with that same class, you're getting your tail beat and you get fired.

"It doesn't matter what kind of splash we make today. What matters is two years or three years down the road, that we got this thing turned in the right direction and we're winning."

There was symbolism the Bills called this news conference on New Year's Eve (and, truth be told, that was the disappointment Nix recognized in the reporters' faces).

A new decade begins at midnight. As Bills icon Jim Kelly noted, decades are marked by the teams that dominate them. The Bills dominated the AFC in the 1990s, then went dark for the 2000s.

"It is the end of the year. It is the end of a decade," Kelly said. "We're moving on to a new era. When you talk about the Pittsburgh Steelers, the New England Patriots, the Green Bay Packers, the decade teams, this is where we start the decade team for the Buffalo Bills.

"You have to think positive."

Nix declared the Bills are not that far away from being competitive, but Wilson added "I don't think it's going to come immediately because I think you build a football team through the draft."

When Nix joined the Chargers as director of player personnel, they were coming off of a 1-15 season. He claimed the Bills have more to work with now than the Chargers did then.

"We were further away at San Diego when we went in there," Nix said. "We had very few players in house. We had some luck along the way and were fortunate enough to draft guys that got better through teaching and good coaching."

Based on the message boards and reactions on talk radio, a lot of Bills fans already are disgusted with the Nix appointment.

I'm willing to wait and see. I don't see this as the same old, same old.

This move just might work.

Posted by ESPN.com's Tim Graham

If you're a Buffalo Bills fan who likes to wallow in your team's despair or just an NFL fan who can sympathize, have I found the place for you.

The Rochester Democrat & Chronicle and Buffalo's NBC affiliate, WGRZ, have teamed up to launch "Decade of Disappointment," a sharp and clever site that takes a hard look at the Bills' inability to make the playoffs since 1999.

As noted on the AFC East blog Thursday, AccuScore computes the Bills' chances of making the playoffs this year at 2 percent. Looks like a completely blank stretch since Y2K.

Prominent on the "Decade of Disappointment" home page is Mount Crushmore, with the visages of owner Ralph Wilson, head coach Dick Jauron, former general manager Tom Donahoe and former tackle Mike Williams, the fourth overall draft pick in 2002.

But there are several other rocks to overturn. Drag your mouse across the faces of 17 other culprits to hear an analyst explain another problem.

The site features several videos, including one from NBC Sports analysts Tony Dungy and Marvin Harrison, another from Hall of Fame running back Thurman Thomas and a roundtable with Democrat & Chronicle reporters Sal Maiorana and Leo Roth and the WGRZ staff.

Posted by ESPN.com's Tim Graham

The response from Buffalo Bills fans will be either laughter or a gag reflex when they learn Mike Williams is working on an NFL comeback.

Williams is one of the NFL's biggest draft busts of the past decade. The Bills used the fourth overall selection in 2002 to select the 6-foot-6, 370-pound Texas tackle.

Williams was ripped for his lack of desire. He couldn't make it through four seasons, finishing his career with five starts in 2005. He had a back problem, but that wasn't considered the real reason he retired after the Bills cut him.

"I know people have questions about me," Williams told Dallas Morning News reporter Barry Horn. "I know they are not questions about my talent. They are questions about my heart."

Williams and quarterback J.P. Losman have been the poster children for the Bills' 21st century failings.

But looking back on the 2002 draft class, Williams was the top prospect at a position of need. The next five tackles off the board were Bryant McKinnie (seventh overall), Levi Jones (10th), Marc Colombo (29th), Mike Pearson (40th), Chester Pitts (50th) and Langston Walker (53rd).

Horn looks back at Williams' bright future when he left Texas and retraces all of the troubles with Buffalo.

But Williams is only 29 years old. There is time to salvage a more meaningful career. He has been living and working out with Derrick Dockery, the high-priced left guard Buffalo released in February.

"I have a new love for the game," Williams told Horn. "I know I have a lot more than people think or what they saw."