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We have bad news to report for the rest of the AFC East division: New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady is feeling really good about his arm and mechanics heading into the 2013 season.

The best player in the division and one of the top quarterbacks of all-time told Peter King of Sports Illustrated that he is more confident than ever about his play, which isn't what the Miami Dolphins, Buffalo Bills and New York Jets want to hear. Brady is the one player who has kept New England on top of the AFC East for the past dozen years.

"Going into my 14th year, I have never had more confidence in how I am throwing the football," Brady said. "I've never felt better throwing the football."

Those are bold words for a 35-year-old quarterback. But Brady rarely is one to boast about his skills. So you have to take Brady at his word when he says something of this nature.

Fittingly, the Patriots certainly need Brady at the top of his game this year. New England lost a lot of production on offense by letting go of starting receivers Wes Welker and Brandon Lloyd, who combined for an astounding 192 receptions, 2,265 yards and 10 touchdowns last season. The Patriots also have major injury concerns with tight ends Rob Gronkowski (arm, back) and Aaron Hernandez (shoulder), who both had major surgeries and will miss a majority of the offseason.

Brady will be working with an entirely new cast of wide receivers. Free-agent pickup Danny Amendola will be one starter, while veteran additions Michael Jenkins, Donald Jones and Lavelle Hawkins compete with rookies Aaron Dobson and Josh Boyce to fill other roles.

It will be vital for Brady to quickly develop chemistry with his new receivers in New England. And Brady feeling at the top of his game going into training camp this summer can only help matters.

Former New England Patriots and Miami Dolphins wide receiver Chad Johnson turned himself in to Florida police on Monday. A warrant for his arrest was issued earlier this month for violating terms of his probation stemming from a domestic incident with his former wife, Evelyn Lozada.

Johnson's bond was set at $1,000 and he will be ordered to return to court for a hearing on June 3.

Chances were already slim that Johnson, 35, would get another chance in the NFL. This latest off-the-field incident most likely makes him too toxic for any team to touch the former Pro Bowl receiver.

For more on Johnson, click here for my take on his legal issues after football.

Here are the most interesting stories Monday in the AFC East:

• New England Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski will have his fourth arm surgery today with a recovery time of approximately 10 weeks.

Morning take: This timeline puts Gronkowski’s return right at training camp, although it would probably be wise to ease him in at that point. It’s unknown if Gronkowski has decided to also have back surgery, as well, this week.

• Speaking of injuries, Miami Dolphins rookie first-round pick Dion Jordan (shoulder) is expected to be ready by training camp.

Morning take: Miami knew of Jordan’s shoulder surgery and still took him No. 3 overall. Jordan has tremendous athleticism and should be 100 percent by August.

• Buffalo Bills rookie quarterback EJ Manuel says his NFL offense is simpler than his offense at Florida State.

Morning take: I’m not sure if that’s a good or bad thing. But Manuel is getting comfortable with the offense. Bills rookie head coach Doug Marrone is bringing his offense from Syracuse, which apparently is easier than Florida State’s.

• New York Jets rookie quarterback Geno Smith says he’s not naïve and he’s not a diva.

Morning take: Smith has been one of the most critiqued prospects in this year’s draft, and that won’t stop now that he’s in New York. The best way for Smith to silence his critics is by going out and playing well.

New England Patriots Pro Bowl tight end Rob Gronkowski is scheduled to have his fourth arm surgery, which has a 10-week timeline for recovery. Gronkowski also may have additional surgery to fix a disc in his back.

ESPN NFL reporter John Clayton examines New England’s level of concern for its Pro Bowl tight end. Gronkowski is going in for his fifth surgery since 2012.

The New England Patriots need help at wide receiver after the departures of 2012 starters Wes Welker and Brandon Lloyd.

Patriots second-round pick Aaron Dobson will be one of those key players competing for a starting role with the reigning AFC East champions. Dobson comes to New England with a spectacular highlight reel at the University of Marshall.

The AFC East blog caught up with Dobson during a community event in this week's NFLPA’s Rookie Premiere in Los Angeles to discuss a variety of topics.

Aaron, how good is it to spend time with NFL rookies this week who are going through the same adjustment?

Aaron Dobson: It’s definitely fun, just out here in LA. We’ve all known each other just going through this [draft] process, and now we’re getting to know each other even more and giving back to the kids.

Marshall was the only college to offer you a scholarship and now you’re a second-round pick for the Patriots. Were you a late bloomer?

Dobson: I really just think it was where I was playing high school football. West Virginia is not a highly-recruited state. I think it was more me being from there. But I got the opportunity at Marshall and I made the best of it. Now I’m in a position I wanted to be in my whole life. So I wouldn’t take it back for anything.

What’s your thoughts on catching passes from future Hall of Famer Tom Brady and learning New England's offense?

Dobson: It’s just great to be in the league and catching passes from any quarterback. But it being Tom just makes it icing on the cake. It’s great and I’m exciting to be a New England Patriot. The offense is definitely something I have to learn. I have to put my mind to it and be focused. I’m taking it day-by-day to learn it and get comfortable with it.

How did you make so many one-handed catches at Marshall?

Dobson: It’s all instinct. I’m just going for the ball and I attack the ball very well. That’s how it happens. I can bring them in with one hand and I can catch with two hands. It’s just being focused, really.

Congrats on the graduation. How important was getting a degree before leaving school?

Dobson: Thank you. It was real important. I got out in three and a half years. I graduated in December, so it was great. My mom is real happy. She’s glad I got my degree and an NFL contract. So it’s just a blessing.

Rob Gronkowski is an elite tight end for the New England Patriots. He’s a big target who gets open, has strong hands and blocks well.

But it’s also fair to officially tag Gronkowski with the “injury-prone” label. The latest news comes from USA Today and ESPN NFL Insider Adam Schefter, who both report that Gronkowski could be headed for back surgery. It would be performed in the same time frame as Gronkowski's upcoming fourth arm surgery, which will sideline him for approximately 10 weeks.

Gronkowski's back issue is not considered serious. But the overriding theme is that Gronkowski, 24, is already becoming damaged goods. He entered the NFL with back problems, which is why New England was able to draft him in the second round. Gronkowski also had major ankle surgery in 2012 and three operations (soon to be four) on his broken left arm. New England's physical marvel is starting to look like a crash-test dummy just three seasons into his career.

I've written numerous times that Gronkowski has the ability to be a Hall of Famer if he stays healthy. But the past two years have shown that that will be difficult. Gronkowski plays with reckless abandon, and it will be tough to change his playing style. At the same time, his body isn’t holding up to the physical pounding.

If Gronkowski does have back surgery next week, in addition to fixing his arm, it will be his sixth time going under the knife since early 2012. At some point, all of these injuries and subsequent surgeries will catch up to Gronkowski.

It may not be noticeable now in Years 1-4, but Gronkowski doesn’t appear to be the type of player the Patriots can expect to stay healthy and perform at a high level for a decade or more.

The AFC East blog concludes this week’s “Hope and Concern” series with the reigning AFC East champion New England Patriots.

Biggest reason for hope: improved defense

It is easy to point out the future Hall of Fame pair of quarterback Tom Brady and head coach Bill Belichick in this spot. But they get the credit every year for keeping New England in the title hunt. What will get New England over the hump to end its nine-year title drought will be improved play by the defense. The Patriots’ offense has been a well-oiled machine for years, but it hasn’t resulted in a championship. New England was at its best during the dynasty years in 2001-2004 because the defense was one of the best in the NFL. New England was ranked 25th in total defense last year, including 29th against the pass. Belichick put a lot of work into strengthening that side of the football this offseason. The Patriots re-signed No. 1 corner Aqib Talib, in addition to adding former Pro Bowl safety Adrian Wilson and veterans such as defensive lineman Tommy Kelly. Second-year players like defensive end Chandler Jones and linebacker Dont’a Hightower are also expected to make the jump. If New England’s defense can get stops in big games, that will make a major difference.

Biggest reason for concern: wide receiver

The Patriots had the NFL’s top-rated offense and the highest-scoring offense in 2012. The offense certainly wasn’t broken, which makes it baffling why New England would make so many changes at wide receiver. The Patriots got rid of 2012 starters Wes Welker and Brandon Lloyd and replaced them with a relatively unknown cast of receivers. Danny Amendola, who’s had a lot of injury concerns, will fill one stop. But the No. 2 and No. 3 receiver positions are wide open. Players like Donald Jones, Michael Jenkins, Lavelle Hawkins, Julian Edelman and rookies Aaron Dobson and Josh Boyce will all compete for playing time. The best two or three receivers will get roles in New England’s offense. Brady has worked with questionable receivers before and made them better. The Patriots need Brady to repeat that feat again this upcoming season. If Brady and the passing game takes a step back, New England will not be as good as last season.

Nine years ago I was a cub reporter covering the Cincinnati Bengals for the Columbus Dispatch. Chad Johnson was entering his fourth season and starting to come into his own.

I watched Johnson come of age with the Bengals and also covered his decline with the New England Patriots and Miami Dolphins. Now, Johnson has a warrant out for his arrest in Florida this week after skipping probation following last year’s domestic incident and divorce from former wife Evelyn Lozada.

Here is one person hoping this isn’t the beginning of a bad downward spiral for the former Pro Bowl receiver.

Full disclosure: I always liked and got along with Johnson. He’s not a bad guy, just a little left of center and very unpredictable. But as a person who interviewed him on a regular basis throughout his entire career, I always appreciated his originality and viewed him as mostly harmless and comical.

But in the back of my mind I wondered what life would be like for Johnson after football. Johnson is the kind of guy who craves the spotlight and loves being the center of attention. In a weird way, I think that was a large part of his motivation to become such a great receiver. It was never about Super Bowls or the fake Hall of Fame jacket he once wore. Johnson worked hard because he loved to entertain and welcome people to the “Chad Johnson Show” on Sundays.

However, this latest legal issue probably ends any chance of Johnson making an NFL comeback. He's become too toxic for teams to touch and Johnson, 35, isn't getting any younger.

Johnson stayed out of trouble his entire 12-year career but now has two run-ins with the law in the past nine months. I don't think that's a coincidence. Johnson must find structure and purpose in his post-football life -- before it’s too late.

 
Rob Gronkowski is officially on the clock.

The longer the New England Patriots Pro Bowl tight end waited, the more likely he would miss the start of the 2013 regular season. That is why it was smart for Gronkowski to go under the knife now for a fourth surgery on his left arm.

Another procedure was essentially inevitable for Gronkowski. His arm was not healing properly, and he suffered an infection after his third surgery.

An already-rough offseason is about to get rougher for Gronkowski. Ten weeks of recovery await, and the “Summer of Gronk” will be spent mostly rehabbing his arm instead of his usual party adventures around the country.

Gronkowski can no longer afford room for error in his recovery. The post-surgery timeline takes him right into training camp. Another setback could result in Gronkowski missing preseason games or even a portion of the regular season.

New England is expected to rely even more on its tight ends this season since 2012 starting receivers Wes Welker and Brandon Lloyd are no longer on the roster. Patriots quarterback Tom Brady needs Gronkowski and fellow tight end Aaron Hernandez more than ever. Hernandez also is recovering from major shoulder surgery and aims to be ready for training camp.

The Patriots must take the field in Week 1 against the Buffalo Bills with or without Gronkowski. His decision to stop delaying surgery greatly increases his chances of being on the field in Ralph Wilson Stadium on Sept. 8.

New England’s title hopes the past two years were dashed, in large part, because Gronkowski could not stay healthy. He is a difference-maker New England cannot win a championship without.

Here are the most interesting stories Thursday in the AFC East:

• The Miami Dolphins spent $204 million in total contracts this offseason. But does it guarantee a playoff run?

Morning take: It absolutely does not. Miami must put it all together on the field in order to earn respect. But the Dolphins have enough talent on paper to contend for a wild-card spot this season.

• The New England Patriots released starting defensive tackle Kyle Love soon after learning he has Type 2 diabetes.

Morning take: The NFL is a cruel business and the Patriots are one of the more emotionless teams. Love played well for New England last season but joins former teammate Brandon Deaderick as recent cuts on the defensive line.

• Free-agent receiver and return specialist Joshua Cribbs signed with the Oakland Raiders.

Morning take: The New York Jets were a strong target for Cribbs, but a balky knee forced general manager John Idzik to wait. It is clear Oakland doesn’t have the same level of concern.

• Buffalo Bills defensive end Mark Anderson hopes to make up for a poor 2012.

Morning take: Anderson came to Buffalo with expectations after recording double-digit sacks with the Patriots in 2011. This is an important time for Anderson to show he can get healthy and contribute to the Bills this upcoming season.

The New England Patriots’ pass defense struggled mightily in 2012. The Patriots were 29th in passing yards allowed and gave up too many chunk plays. That eventually cost New England in the playoffs, where the team lost to the Baltimore Ravens in the AFC title game.

New England cornerback Kyle Arrington discussed the future of the Patriots on ESPN's "First Take" Tuesday and looks ahead to the 2013 season. Is New England’s title window still open?

Let’s take a look at whose stock is up and down in the AFC East.

Falling

1. New England Patriots receivers: I’m just not convinced that New England has a strong receiving corps. This was once a strength of the Patriots and now it’s a weakness. Often injured Danny Amendola leads the group, which also includes Donald Jones, Michael Jenkins and Julian Edelman. The Patriots also signed another veteran to add to the pile: Lavelle Hawkins. The Patriots could be fortunate if rookie Aaron Dobson or Josh Boyce turn out to be fast learners. But counting on rookie receivers to immediately adjust to the speed of the NFL game is always a roll of the dice.

2. Quinton Coples, New York Jets defensive end/outside linebacker: Coples entered the draft in 2012 with the reputation of turning it off and on during games. It turns out that’s also the case in the weight room. Coples angered Jets head coach Rex Ryan last week for his poor work in the weight room. Ryan needs the former first-round pick to play well next season when Coples transitions to an important role as an outside pass-rusher. Coples has the talent but needs to focus. It’s hard to get away with turning it off and on in the NFL. Now is the time for Coples to put in the extra work to become a consistent player.

3. Buffalo Bills’ guard position: The Bills probably made the right decision in free agency not to overpay for former guard Andy Levitre, who signed a $46 million contract with the Tennessee Titans. However, I’m not sure the Bills did enough this offseason to find a quality replacement. Buffalo is working relative unknown Chris Scott with the first team at left guard during this week’s organized team activities. That’s a far drop-off from Levitre. Do not underestimate the importance of quality interior linemen in Buffalo’s offense. One of the reasons running backs C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson had huge running lanes and the quarterback had good pass protection was due to solid guard play from Levitre and returning starter Kraig Urbik.

Rising

1. Doug Whaley, Buffalo Bills general manager: As expected, 73-year-old Buddy Nix stepped down as Buffalo’s general manager this week and handed the post to Whaley, his former assistant GM. This had been in the works for a while. Whaley was doing many of the general manager duties in Buffalo for the past year or so and is now ready to take over. Whaley spent a decade with the Pittsburgh Steelers, which included two Super Bowl titles, and two years with the Bills waiting for this opportunity. The Bills are a team with a young nucleus and a young general manager looking to get them to the next level.

2. Geno Smith, Jets quarterback: Smith did a good job over the weekend of setting aside criticism and focusing on football. He had a solid rookie minicamp for the Jets and showed why the team made him the second quarterback off the board in this year’s draft. The hype machine is already building for Smith in New York after just one weekend. One report from the New York Post already indicated that Smith is the favorite to win the starting job and the coaching staff is “smitten” with the rookie after only a few practices.

3. Robert Woods, Bills receiver: Woods stole the show at Buffalo rookie minicamp last weekend. In a time that was meant to showcase new quarterback EJ Manuel, Woods was the rookie who shined brightest for Buffalo. The second-round pick reportedly had six catches in his first practice and displayed good hands and route running. Woods was arguably the most polished receiver in this year’s draft and is showing why early on. He has the inside track to start opposite veteran receiver Steve Johnson in Week 1.

Here are the most interesting stories Tuesday the AFC East:

• Do the Miami Dolphins have a weakness at running back?

Morning take: Some who didn’t watch Miami often last year could view it that way. Lamar Miller is a virtual unknown to many NFL fans, but he was very good with limited opportunities. Daniel Thomas and rookie Mike Gillislee also provide quality depth. I think Miami’s tailbacks are better than advertised.

• New York Jets head coach Rex Ryan had nice things to say about first-round pick Dee Milliner.

Morning take: Milliner will have a chance to win the starting job in Week 1. He will battle Kyle Wilson, but both players will have important roles on the defense. So Milliner must stay ready.

• The New England Patriots made a somewhat surprising move to release defensive lineman Brandon Deaderick.

Morning take: Deaderick made five starts for the Patriots last season and was a valuable player in New England's rotation. But the free-agent additions of veteran Tommy Kelly and Armond Armstead made Deaderick expendable.

• Former Buffalo Bills general manager Buddy Nix says the time was right to step down.

Morning take: Nix talked about stepping down for a while and finally made the move Monday. If rookie EJ Manuel turns out to be a franchise quarterback, Nix made good on his final major decision with the team.

Let’s dig into the AFC East weekend mailbag.

Greg Z from Syracuse, N.Y., writes: Hi James, we have been Dolphins fans since we met Larry Csonka years ago. Stephen Ross is a billionaire owner who wants the taxpayers to pay for his upgrades. Ridiculous for a man worth billions! It’s a bad economy and people are hurting unlike Mr. Ross. He is not used to not getting what he wants from politicians.

James Walker: I can see things from both sides. South Florida taxpayers were bamboozled by the Miami Marlins. There’s no nice way to say it. I drive by the huge baseball stadium often and it’s a constant reminder of the bad side of sports teams squeezing public money out of its community. However, I thought the Dolphins mostly went about things the right way in terms of being creative and negotiable with where the money would come from. Ross also agreed to foot a large chunk of the bill. Either way, it should have gone to public vote to let the people decide. But in the end, I think the Marlins’ issue still cuts too deep with politicians.

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Forrest from Colorado writes: Do you think a guy like Dion Jordan is the answer to tight ends like Rob Gronkowskibecause of his size and speed?

Walker: It’s a bit of a mystery how Miami plans to use Jordan. He has tremendous athleticism, so the Dolphins could use Jordan in a variety of ways, including at outside linebacker. But Miami drafted Jordan, first and foremost, to get to the quarterback. That is what the Dolphins’ defense lacked outside of Pro Bowl defensive end Cameron Wake. Miami also got younger and more athletic at linebacker with free-agent additions Dannell Ellerbe and Philip Wheeler to better cover tight ends.

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Gerry Ramsey from Cincinnati, Ohio, writes: Hello James. I fully agree with you. I'm not a Jets fan in the least but Geno Smith has to be quiet and get off Twitter. He's in NYC. This makes me wonder how far off the one "scout" who wrote his scathing analysis actually was. I'm not sure how long Geno will last there and I'm actually surprised how long Mark Sanchez has. Hopefully David Garrardcan mentor the kid.

Walker: My point was not for Smith to stop talking, but more so to stop responding to critics. It’s a pointless exercise that is getting him nowhere. It also gives off the impression that he’s thin-skinned, which Smith says is not the case. The only thing Smith can do to fix the issue is develop into a leader and win games for the Jets. That should be his focus.

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@Robespierre9 via Twitter writes: Business is supply and demand, right? People want Tim Tebow. The NFL, if it was smart, should give the people what they want!

Walker: I think you’re missing my point on Tebow being too popular and influential for his own good. Tebow is a high-character person who will make a difference in the world off the field. However, the immense following, popularity and media coverage he brings doesn’t match his marginal talent as a quarterback. We saw that with New York last season, and teams are afraid to have another Tebow-mania repeat in 2013. Tebow has skills to play in the NFL in some capacity. A case can be made that Tebow can also be a second- or third-string quarterback who continues to develop. But it’s a lot different to bring in Tebow versus a usual backup quarterback.

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@MDermody88 via Twitter writes: I’m not sure how you have a guy ranked No. 3 who didn't play last year ahead of Stephon Gilmorewho started 16 games?

Walker: People forget things quickly in the NFL, and I understand because it is such a year-to-year league. However, Dolphins cornerback Brent Grimes was a Pro Bowl cornerback two seasons ago before his knee injury. I’m projecting that Grimes could return close to that form. Gilmore hasn’t reached his ceiling and still has some learning to do.

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Ken from Montrealwrites: Is Da'rick Rogers the best undrafted wide receiver to come out of collage this year?

Walker: Rogers has the most natural talent, but he also has the most baggage of the undrafted free agents. The Bills are taking in a lot of character risks this year, but they are trying to win and hope players like Rogers can stay out of trouble.

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Richie Thompson from Chicago, Ill., writes: Why is everyone saying Aaron Dobsonisn't fast enough to be a deep threat when he ran a 4.42? That's plenty fast for a deep threat. I just don't know what people are looking at.

Walker: I’m not sure where you are reading about Dobson. But part of the reason the Patriots drafted him in the second round was due to his big-play ability. Dobson is fast enough to get behind the defense and athletic enough to make big plays. His highlight reel has a lot of one-handed catches.

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V.Coatee from Seattle, Wash.,writes: Please continue to make your game-by-game predictions. Your picks are a valuable extension of your writing on the AFC East. It takes objectivity and skill to keep track of all the match-ups and other factors that go into predicting outcomes. Rather than feeling annoyed by your success, I feel challenged to see if I can do as well.

Walker: I’m still debating the issue. I’ve done it successfully two years in a row for the AFC East, but I’m leaning toward taking this season off. I think I want to make one season prediction on who will win the AFC East after training camp and lay off weekly predictions for a bit. Let's see how I feel in September.

» NFC Eight in the Box: East | West | North | South » AFC: East | West | North | South

A look at a key player from each AFC East team who needs to show something in offseason sessions:

New York Jets: Perhaps no AFC East player has a brighter spotlight on him this offseason than embattled Jets quarterback Mark Sanchez. Quarterback competitions are always interesting, but quarterback competitions in New York are taken to another level. Sanchez is in a five-way battle with fellow veteran David Garrard, highly touted rookie Geno Smith and backups Greg McElroy and Matt Simms. Sanchez is the incumbent looking to keep his job, which he’s had for four seasons. But Sanchez led the NFL in turnovers the past two seasons, which contributed to back-to-back non-winning seasons in New York. The Jets have treated Sanchez with kid gloves for a majority of his career and have not brought in legit competition before. But first-year general manager John Idzik did not draft Sanchez and has no ties to the 2009 first-round pick. The quarterback derby is wide open. Whoever can learn new offensive coordinator Marty Mornhinweg’s West Coast system faster this offseason will have the inside track in training camp.

Buffalo Bills: Veteran quarterback Kevin Kolb is in a similar spot to Sanchez. Signed as a free agent, he has a chance to win the starting job but must compete with rookie first-round pick EJ Manuel and veteran Tarvaris Jackson. Kolb has had a lot of ups and downs in stops with the Philadelphia Eagles and Arizona Cardinals. He will get his third opportunity to lead a team, this time under first-year head coach Doug Marrone. The competition is hard to predict. Kolb might be a slight favorite to win Buffalo’s starting job in Week 1 because of his experience. But if Kolb is beaten out by a rookie (Manuel) or a journeyman (Jackson) in training camp, it wouldn’t be shocking to see the Bills cut ties with Kolb. A majority of Kolb’s two-year, $13 million contract is incentive based and not guaranteed.

Miami Dolphins: The Dolphins have put veteran cornerback Dimitri Patterson on the hot seat via the draft. Miami drafted two cornerbacks -- Jamar Taylor and Will Davis -- in the second and third rounds, respectively. The rookies will make the 53-man roster, but Patterson’s spot is not guaranteed. The former Cleveland Browns cornerback joined the Dolphins as a late-season waiver claim. Patterson didn’t get to show much in his two games with Miami last season and must really impress the coaching staff this offseason. Otherwise, the Dolphins could release Patterson and save on his $4.6 million salary. Agreeing to take a pay cut also would be an option for Patterson.

New England Patriots: New Patriots running back LeGarrette Blount was added this offseason to a crowded backfield. He was acquired in a draft-day trade with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in exchange for a seventh-round pick and track standout Jeff Demps. Blount joins tailbacks Stevan Ridley, Shane Vereen and return specialist Leon Washington. Blount could add power and a short-yardage threat to New England's offense, which needs both those things. But Blount fell out of favor in Tampa and has had issues in the past. The Patriots took a chance to see whether Blount could turn around his career. But New England also is never afraid to cut players who do not fit.