AFC East: New England Patriots
» AFC Scenarios: East | West | North | South
Yes, the start of training camps is two months away, but it’s never too early to consider the coming season. A look at the best-case and worst-case scenarios for the Buffalo Bills in 2012.
Dream scenario (11-5): It would be a dream for Bills fans to see their team back in the playoffs for the first time in 13 years. The last time we saw Buffalo make the postseason, the Bills were the victim of the “Music City Miracle” in 1999. It has been a long line of disappointments and underachieving since that historic play. (Many Bills fans still contend that was a forward pass, by the way.) This year’s team looks poised to break the streak. This is the best team, on paper, that Buffalo has had in a long time. The offense will be dangerous if quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick improves his consistency in the passing game and Fred Jackson, C.J. Spiller and the running game stay consistent. Buffalo also made improvements to the defense, including drafting corner Stephon Gilmore in the first round and adding stud defensive ends Mario Williams and Mark Anderson. Chances are, everything won’t fall into place for Buffalo. But this is a sleeper team that does have a chance to make a jump and contend for the playoffs.
Nightmare scenario (5-11): Despite all the additions, there is no guarantee the Bills and their coaching staff can bring it all together in one year. What if Fitzpatrick continues to play like the second half of 2011 and is not the long-term solution? What if the defense struggles to make the transition to a 4-3 scheme under new defensive coordinator Dave Wannstedt? What if big injuries again decimate this team? A lot can go wrong for the Bills, especially in a division where the reigning AFC champion New England Patriots are expected to dominate. The Bills are trying to catch up and cannot afford to make many mistakes in the AFC East. They were 1-5 against division foes last year. Bills head coach Chan Gailey is only 10-22 in his first two years in Buffalo. He has more talent than he has ever had with the Bills. There are no excuses for Gailey this year. It’s still somewhat of a mystery whether Gailey can coach. But we will find out in 2012.
Yes, the start of training camps is two months away, but it’s never too early to consider the coming season. A look at the best-case and worst-case scenarios for the Buffalo Bills in 2012.
Dream scenario (11-5): It would be a dream for Bills fans to see their team back in the playoffs for the first time in 13 years. The last time we saw Buffalo make the postseason, the Bills were the victim of the “Music City Miracle” in 1999. It has been a long line of disappointments and underachieving since that historic play. (Many Bills fans still contend that was a forward pass, by the way.) This year’s team looks poised to break the streak. This is the best team, on paper, that Buffalo has had in a long time. The offense will be dangerous if quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick improves his consistency in the passing game and Fred Jackson, C.J. Spiller and the running game stay consistent. Buffalo also made improvements to the defense, including drafting corner Stephon Gilmore in the first round and adding stud defensive ends Mario Williams and Mark Anderson. Chances are, everything won’t fall into place for Buffalo. But this is a sleeper team that does have a chance to make a jump and contend for the playoffs.
Nightmare scenario (5-11): Despite all the additions, there is no guarantee the Bills and their coaching staff can bring it all together in one year. What if Fitzpatrick continues to play like the second half of 2011 and is not the long-term solution? What if the defense struggles to make the transition to a 4-3 scheme under new defensive coordinator Dave Wannstedt? What if big injuries again decimate this team? A lot can go wrong for the Bills, especially in a division where the reigning AFC champion New England Patriots are expected to dominate. The Bills are trying to catch up and cannot afford to make many mistakes in the AFC East. They were 1-5 against division foes last year. Bills head coach Chan Gailey is only 10-22 in his first two years in Buffalo. He has more talent than he has ever had with the Bills. There are no excuses for Gailey this year. It’s still somewhat of a mystery whether Gailey can coach. But we will find out in 2012.
» AFC Scenarios: East | West | North | South
Yes, the start of training camps is two months away, but it’s never too early to consider the coming season. A look at the best-case and worst-case scenarios for the Patriots in 2012.
Dream scenario (15-1): The Patriots take advantage of the easiest strength of schedule in the NFL on their way to home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. Barring injury, it's hard not to see New England winning at least 11 or 12 games this year. Note the dream scenario is 15-1, not 16-0. The pressure of going into the playoffs undefeated is immense. New England found out the hard way after the 2007 season, when they came up just short in the Super Bowl against the New York Giants. It would be easier for New England to get that loss out of the way early so the pressure of a perfect season won't be on their shoulders late in the year. The AFC East looks ripe for the Patriots once again. They went 5-1 against the division in 2011, which is key to winning the AFC East and vying for home-field advantage in the AFC.
Nightmare scenario (9-7): Is 9-7 really a nightmare? Not for most teams. But it's Super Bowl or bust for New England, and a nine-win season with the chance to miss the playoffs is probably the worst this team could do considering its talent and easy schedule. Significant injuries are the only thing I can see derailing the Patriots from another playoff run. Quarterback Tom Brady suffered a season-ending knee injury in 2008 and New England still finished 11-5. But this is a different team, especially on defense. A significant injury to Brady, especially early in the season, would be a nightmare and make the Patriots an ordinary team again. I'm not convinced this team is good enough, especially defensively, to hold up like it did a few years ago without its future Hall of Fame quarterback. Also, who knows if Ryan Mallett or Brian Hoyer is good enough to lead the charge? Maybe in time, but the Patriots don't want to find out next season.
Yes, the start of training camps is two months away, but it’s never too early to consider the coming season. A look at the best-case and worst-case scenarios for the Patriots in 2012.
Dream scenario (15-1): The Patriots take advantage of the easiest strength of schedule in the NFL on their way to home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. Barring injury, it's hard not to see New England winning at least 11 or 12 games this year. Note the dream scenario is 15-1, not 16-0. The pressure of going into the playoffs undefeated is immense. New England found out the hard way after the 2007 season, when they came up just short in the Super Bowl against the New York Giants. It would be easier for New England to get that loss out of the way early so the pressure of a perfect season won't be on their shoulders late in the year. The AFC East looks ripe for the Patriots once again. They went 5-1 against the division in 2011, which is key to winning the AFC East and vying for home-field advantage in the AFC.
Nightmare scenario (9-7): Is 9-7 really a nightmare? Not for most teams. But it's Super Bowl or bust for New England, and a nine-win season with the chance to miss the playoffs is probably the worst this team could do considering its talent and easy schedule. Significant injuries are the only thing I can see derailing the Patriots from another playoff run. Quarterback Tom Brady suffered a season-ending knee injury in 2008 and New England still finished 11-5. But this is a different team, especially on defense. A significant injury to Brady, especially early in the season, would be a nightmare and make the Patriots an ordinary team again. I'm not convinced this team is good enough, especially defensively, to hold up like it did a few years ago without its future Hall of Fame quarterback. Also, who knows if Ryan Mallett or Brian Hoyer is good enough to lead the charge? Maybe in time, but the Patriots don't want to find out next season.
Here are the most interesting stories Thursday morning in the AFC East:
- Buffalo Bills quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick is off and running with quarterbacks coach David Lee.
- Miami Dolphins left tackle Jake Long checked in at No. 59 in the NFL top 100.
- The New England Patriots brought in a trio of offensive linemen for tryouts.
- The New York Jets signed free-agent fullback Fui Vakapuna.
On Wednesday ESPN put together an expert panel to determine which team will is poised to dominate in 2015.
That is three years and four seasons from now.
Here is how things shaped up in the AFC East:
No 2: New England Patriots
Thoughts: Earlier Wednesday I wrote a column that New England will struggle when Tom Brady retires. Our panel thinks Brady will still be around in 2015 and gave New England a "nine" rating at quarterback. That's debatable. Brady will be 38 years old in 2015. Is Brady still playing football? And if so, is Brady still elite pushing 40? The article also ignores tight end Aaron Hernandez's contract situation. He's a free agent in two years, along with teammate Rob Gronkowski. Hernandez is probably not on New England's roster in 2015 unless the Patriots find a way to make "Gronk" and Hernandez two of the highest-paid players at the same position. That's not likely.
No. 16: New York Jets
Thoughts: The Jets are an interesting team. Like the Patriots, they are built to win now. It’s hard to say where New York will be in four seasons. ESPN's Trent Dilfer says he still loves the talent and potential of quarterback Mark Sanchez, but I disagree. Entering his fourth season, I think Sanchez pretty much is what he is. Of course, Sanchez can play better over the next few years and reduce turnovers. But he’s not a future perennial Pro Bowler in waiting. Pro Bowl cornerback Darrelle Revis will be 30 in 2015. Maybe he’s still the best cornerback in football at that time. Maybe not. New York’s drafts also can be hit or miss.
No. 22: Buffalo Bills
Thoughts: Things are looking up for Buffalo this season, but I think the Bills were a victim of circumstance in this case. The Bills haven’t made the postseason in 13 years. Therefore, I would assume it was very hard for our expert panel to put any stock in Buffalo’s future several years down the line. But there are some good, young players on the roster. Running back C.J. Spiller has potential. So does defensive tackle Marcell Dareus and rookie corner Stephon Gilmore. No. 1 receiver Steve Johnson also is still just 25. I still have questions about the long-term potential of quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick. But the Bills have potential to build something.
No. 28: Miami Dolphins
Thoughts: ESPN’s panel sees too many questions about the direction of Dolphins. Is rookie Ryan Tannehill the long-term solution quarterback? Is Joe Philbin a viable head coach? Is Pro Bowl left tackle Jake Long staying in Miami beyond 2012? There are a lot of questions in Miami. The Dolphins aren’t ready to compete now, and they have to make a lot of the right moves in order to compete in the future. Only the Oakland Raiders, Jacksonville Jaguars, Minnesota Vikings and Cleveland Browns had lower rankings than the Dolphins in these future Power Rankings.
Here is how things shaped up in the AFC East:
No 2: New England Patriots
Thoughts: Earlier Wednesday I wrote a column that New England will struggle when Tom Brady retires. Our panel thinks Brady will still be around in 2015 and gave New England a "nine" rating at quarterback. That's debatable. Brady will be 38 years old in 2015. Is Brady still playing football? And if so, is Brady still elite pushing 40? The article also ignores tight end Aaron Hernandez's contract situation. He's a free agent in two years, along with teammate Rob Gronkowski. Hernandez is probably not on New England's roster in 2015 unless the Patriots find a way to make "Gronk" and Hernandez two of the highest-paid players at the same position. That's not likely.
No. 16: New York Jets
Thoughts: The Jets are an interesting team. Like the Patriots, they are built to win now. It’s hard to say where New York will be in four seasons. ESPN's Trent Dilfer says he still loves the talent and potential of quarterback Mark Sanchez, but I disagree. Entering his fourth season, I think Sanchez pretty much is what he is. Of course, Sanchez can play better over the next few years and reduce turnovers. But he’s not a future perennial Pro Bowler in waiting. Pro Bowl cornerback Darrelle Revis will be 30 in 2015. Maybe he’s still the best cornerback in football at that time. Maybe not. New York’s drafts also can be hit or miss.
No. 22: Buffalo Bills
Thoughts: Things are looking up for Buffalo this season, but I think the Bills were a victim of circumstance in this case. The Bills haven’t made the postseason in 13 years. Therefore, I would assume it was very hard for our expert panel to put any stock in Buffalo’s future several years down the line. But there are some good, young players on the roster. Running back C.J. Spiller has potential. So does defensive tackle Marcell Dareus and rookie corner Stephon Gilmore. No. 1 receiver Steve Johnson also is still just 25. I still have questions about the long-term potential of quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick. But the Bills have potential to build something.
No. 28: Miami Dolphins
Thoughts: ESPN’s panel sees too many questions about the direction of Dolphins. Is rookie Ryan Tannehill the long-term solution quarterback? Is Joe Philbin a viable head coach? Is Pro Bowl left tackle Jake Long staying in Miami beyond 2012? There are a lot of questions in Miami. The Dolphins aren’t ready to compete now, and they have to make a lot of the right moves in order to compete in the future. Only the Oakland Raiders, Jacksonville Jaguars, Minnesota Vikings and Cleveland Browns had lower rankings than the Dolphins in these future Power Rankings.
Patriots ink first-rounder Chandler Jones
May, 23, 2012
May 23
5:50
PM ET
By
James Walker | ESPN.com
The New England Patriots agreed to a four-year contract with first-round pick Chandler Jones on Wednesday. The rookie defensive end from Syracuse was the 21st overall pick in April's NFL draft.
Jones was drafted to help New England's pass rush. He was the first of two first-round picks for the Patriots.
New England has five of seven draft picks signed. Fellow first-round pick Dont'a Hightower and third-round pick Jake Bequette have yet to agree to terms.
Earlier Wednesday, we wrote a column on the New England Patriots' likely future struggles without Tom Brady. The Hall of Fame quarterback is set to retire in a few years, which will bring the Patriots back to earth with the rest of the division.
In our latest AFC East poll, we want to know which quarterback has the best chance to be Brady's heir in the division. There are several players to choose from on the Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, New York Jets and even the Patriots.
The Jets have two quarterbacks age 25 or under. Is Mark Sanchez or Tim Tebow the next dominant quarterback in the AFC East? Both have won playoff games early in their career and are competing to lead the Jets to the next level.
How about rookie first-round draft pick Ryan Tannehill? He's young and has all the tools to be a viable NFL quarterback. But the Dolphins must spend the next couple of years developing Tannehill and getting him ready for the pro game. Will he become the best quarterback in the AFC East after Brady retires?
Will it be Ryan Fitzpatrick? He's 29 and in the best years of his career. Fitzpatrick recently signed a $59 million contract extension with Buffalo, which means he will be the starter for at least the next two or three seasons.
Or is Brady’s heir also on New England's roster? Young but inexperienced quarterbacks Ryan Mallett and Brian Hoyer are both waiting and learning behind Brady. Does either player have what it takes to keep the Patriots in title contention when Brady retires?
Using our SportsNation poll, vote on the top quarterback of the future in the AFC East. You can also share your thoughts in the comments section below.
In our latest AFC East poll, we want to know which quarterback has the best chance to be Brady's heir in the division. There are several players to choose from on the Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, New York Jets and even the Patriots.
The Jets have two quarterbacks age 25 or under. Is Mark Sanchez or Tim Tebow the next dominant quarterback in the AFC East? Both have won playoff games early in their career and are competing to lead the Jets to the next level.
How about rookie first-round draft pick Ryan Tannehill? He's young and has all the tools to be a viable NFL quarterback. But the Dolphins must spend the next couple of years developing Tannehill and getting him ready for the pro game. Will he become the best quarterback in the AFC East after Brady retires?
Will it be Ryan Fitzpatrick? He's 29 and in the best years of his career. Fitzpatrick recently signed a $59 million contract extension with Buffalo, which means he will be the starter for at least the next two or three seasons.
Or is Brady’s heir also on New England's roster? Young but inexperienced quarterbacks Ryan Mallett and Brian Hoyer are both waiting and learning behind Brady. Does either player have what it takes to keep the Patriots in title contention when Brady retires?
Using our SportsNation poll, vote on the top quarterback of the future in the AFC East. You can also share your thoughts in the comments section below.
Patriots will struggle in post-Tom Brady era
May, 23, 2012
May 23
11:00
AM ET
By
James Walker | ESPN.com
Mark J. Rebilas/US PresswireWithout Tom Brady under center, the New England Patriots become just an ordinary team.But all of that comes to an end when Brady retires.
Brady, who turns 35 in August, says he wants to play in New England until he's 40. That is great news for the Patriots, because they will struggle the second the future Hall of Famer hangs it up.
Things that have become foreign to New England the past dozen years will become routine again. New England will have down years and miss the playoffs -- just like everybody else. The Patriots won't survive various injuries -- just like everybody else. The Patriots also will run through a few quarterbacks -- just like everybody else.
On Wednesday, ESPN.com examined potentially dominant teams in 2015
Here are four reasons New England will struggle in the post-Brady era:
No. 1: Patriots won't immediately find Brady's replacement.
Brady's story is once in a generation. He's a former sixth-round pick who slipped through the cracks to become one of the top five quarterbacks of all time. Brady had the drive and “it" factor to become the greatest player in franchise history. Brady often is compared to Joe Montana, because they share a similar story about 20 years apart.
The chances of New England finding another Brady anytime soon are slim.
[+] Enlarge
Stew Milne/US PresswireWill Ryan Mallett be ready to take over for Tom Brady when the future Hall of Famer is ready to hang it up?
Stew Milne/US PresswireWill Ryan Mallett be ready to take over for Tom Brady when the future Hall of Famer is ready to hang it up?What about Brian Hoyer? The undrafted quarterback has shown small flashes but certainly not enough to warrant Pro Bowl status. The drop-off going from Brady to 99 percent of other quarterbacks will be steep.
Even if Mallett or Hoyer turns out to be a viable starting quarterback, neither will be nearly as good as Brady. Is Mallett or Hoyer a future Hall of Famer? Probably not. Will either quarterback perennially make the Pro Bowl? Not likely.
New England has been able to overcome poor defense, injuries and at times average receivers to still be competitive. Brady was great enough to carry the Patriots through various weaknesses. That no longer will be a luxury in New England. It will be much harder to get everything right with other areas of the team, especially if the quarterback position is in flux.
No. 2: The offense is old.
Brady is turning 35 in August. No. 1 receiver Wes Welker is 31. Starting receiver Brandon Lloyd is 30. Longtime left tackle Matt Light just retired this offseason. Guard Brian Waters might follow, if not this year, then soon after.
When Brady is gone, it's likely all these important offensive pieces will be gone as well. A Patriots offense without Brady, Welker, Lloyd, Light, Waters, etc., means New England is virtually starting over in a few years.
The Patriots still have a couple of young stars in tight ends Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez. But consider this: One tight end probably will bolt in free agency. Both Gronkowski and Hernandez -- two of the top five players at their position -- have rookie contracts set to expire in two years. Both will be looking for huge paydays, and New England can't do that with two players at the same position.
New England most likely will throw the money truck at Gronkowski, perhaps making him the highest-paid tight end, and let Hernandez walk. Brady also will be 37 and possibly retired or on his last legs by the time both tight ends will look for extensions. Returning to New England's offense long term won't be as attractive two years from now for a pending free agent such as Hernandez.
No. 3: Sun is setting on Belichick.
Belichick just turned 60 years old. How much longer will he coach the Patriots?
He has coached in the NFL in some capacity for 37 years. He is approaching his fourth decade in the league.
Even head coaches have a shelf life. Belichick currently is the NFL's fourth-oldest head coach behind Tom Coughlin (65) of the New York Giants, Romeo Crennel (64) of the Kansas City Chiefs and, by a few months, Chan Gailey (60) of the Buffalo Bills. Perhaps we are also witnessing the last few years of Belichick roaming the sidelines.
A good debate topic in New England would be who contributed more to the Patriots' dynasty the past dozen years: Brady or Belichick? Both are Hall of Famers. But in my opinion, Brady's development and dominance at quarterback are stronger factors in New England's success. Belichick would not have won all those games, division titles and championships in New England with shoddy quarterback play. Brady remained dominant and kept the team afloat, even when Belichick struggled coaching the defense, which is Belichick's specialty.
No. 4: The rest of the AFC East will catch up.
I often call the AFC East the "Brady and Belichick division." They're the great equalizers who keep the Patriots on top.
But without Brady in a few years, and perhaps Belichick, all four teams are back to an even playing field. Who will be the top quarterback in the AFC East when Brady retires? Ryan Tannehill? Mark Sanchez? Tim Tebow? Someone else?
Maybe all four teams will have average quarterback play. That means the Patriots, New York Jets, Bills and Miami Dolphins must rely on other areas to be successful and win the division.
Can the Patriots rely on their defense to lead the way? Not right now. Not even close. New England is in no position to overcome poor quarterback play, and that probably won't change overnight.
I expect Brady to play at least two more years (2012 and 2013) at an elite level. He might opt to play beyond that. But after age 37, there's no guarantee Brady can continue to take the physical pounding and play at the high level to which we have become accustomed. We've already seen nagging injuries bother Brady more than ever over the past couple of seasons.
Brady is a special talent the organization probably will never see again. So enjoy the success now, Patriots fans. New England will come back to earth and be an ordinary team again in three to five years.
Retired New England Patriots left tackle Matt Light made a trip to ESPN headquarters this week. He recently played a game of percentages on "NFL Live" and had some interesting things to say.
Percentage chance Tom Brady plays for 10 more years
Matt Light: "One hundred percent. If you said 20 years, I’d probably give you 100 percent. I mean, they’re going to have to cart him off. ...He could be playing to 55, maybe even 60."
Percentage chance Bill Belichick wins another Super Bowl
Light: “We’ll go 50-50. The one thing that you hear from a lot of guys that come in from other organizations is that ‘I just wanted to come here because I just want a shot at winning.’ I think they bank on the fact that because of the system and the dedication of the coaching staff, the owner and everything else, they’re going to have that opportunity. So, each year 50-50.”
Percentage chance of Wes Welker signing a long-term deal before the season starts
Light: “Can we say zero on that? That’s a tough one. Let’s go with five percent.”
Percentage of caveman in tight end Rob Gronkowski
Light: “A solid 87. It’s a good caveman.”
Percentage chance of Light returning to the football field
Light: “Zero percent. Not in a bad way but when you close the door, it’s always good to keep walking.”
Some New England Patriots observers are still scratching their heads regarding defensive back Devin McCourty's sophomore slump. He went from a Pro Bowl corner in his rookie year to a player who couldn't consistently cover receivers in 2011.
McCourty provided some answers this week. He told the Boston Herald he played with a separated right shoulder since Week 10 of the regular season. McCourty returned after two games, but it appears he was more injured than he was letting on.
McCourty struggled mightily down the stretch for New England's 31st-rated defense. He was eventually moved to safety during the Patriots' playoff run. McCourty didn't require offseason surgery but says he's still not 100 percent.
The Patriots hope McCourty just suffered a down year. They need cover corners, and McCourty proved he can make plays when he had seven interceptions and two forced fumbles as a rookie.
Here are the most interesting stories in the AFC East:
- The New York Jets were without starting safety LaRon Landry for the start of organized team activities.
- The New England Patriots offense is changing the NFL.
- Who are the top-10 running backs in Miami Dolphins history?
- NFL Network analyst Warren Sapp likes the Buffalo Bills' defensive line.
ESPN.com senior writer John Clayton recently provided his list of the top-10 tight ends heading into the 2012 season. To no surprise, the New England Patriots duo of Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez both made the cut. But the rankings were interesting: Gronkowski was No. 1 and Hernandez was No. 3.
Gronkowski has catapulted to the top of the tight-end rankings after a record-setting season. I doubt many would argue that point. But is Hernandez, Gronkowski's backup, the third-best at his position?
"Hernandez isn't as physical as Gronkowski after the catch, but he's a beast to stop in routes. Hernandez takes double coverage away from Gronkowski and vice-versa, which forces opponents into more man-to-man coverages," Clayton wrote.
There are a lot of good tight ends in the NFL. But the big point is that both Gronkowski and Hernandez are unique talents who may not be together very long in New England. Both will be looking for top dollar when their contracts expire in two years. New England will struggle to pay both at the same position.
Also worth noting is Dustin Keller of the New York Jets also came in at No. 9 on Clayton's list of top tight ends.
Here is the AFC East blog's ranking of defenses heading into 2012:
No. 1: New York Jets
Analysis: The perception was stronger than the reality for New York's defense last year. The common train of thought is the Jets' defense had a significant drop off from previous years. The reality was New York finished fifth in total defense in 2011. Some aspects weren't consistent, such as the Jets' pass rush and covering tight ends over the middle. But New York still has the best cornerback duo in football and talent at all three levels. The Jets also added first-round pick Quinton Coples and hard-hitting safeties LaRon Landry and Yeremiah Bell. Until the other division defenses rank in the top five, you have to give the Jets the edge in these rankings.
No. 2: Buffalo Bills
Analysis: The Bills were ranked No. 26th in total defense last year, but they are poised to make a big jump. Buffalo added a pass rush at defensive end with Mario Williams and Mark Anderson, and a starting cornerback in first-round pick Stephon Gilmore. Buffalo's defensive line with Williams, Anderson, Kyle Williams and Marcell Dareus should be one of the NFL's best. Nick Barnett is a talented linebacker. There's also talent in the secondary, particularly with safeties Jairus Byrd and George Wilson. Buffalo's defense has a lot of potential if it can come together quickly.
No. 3: Miami Dolphins
Analysis: This will surely upset Dolphins fans, many of whom feel their defense is elite. Well, as I've said before, Miami's defense is somewhat overrated. It's a good group and a tough group. But it's not elite. Miami was ranked No. 15 in total defense. Its pass defense was No. 25. The Dolphins are still looking for another pass-rusher opposite Cameron Wake, who had 8.5 sacks in 2011. They also lost their leading tackler in Bell and their leader in Jason Taylor, who retired. Miami will play more 4-3 concepts under first-year defensive coordinator Kevin Coyle.
No. 4: New England Patriots
Analysis: The Patriots were the second-worst defense in the league last year. But this is an offensive team that got away with it and nearly won the Super Bowl. New England's defense doesn't cover well and needs to get to the quarterback more. The Patriots added plenty of pass-rushers in free agency and the draft. Perhaps that will help the back end. But New England's offense is so good that it probably won't matter much. If the defense improves from No. 31 to the top 20, that's enough for the Patriots to remain one of the elite NFL teams.
No. 1: New York Jets
Analysis: The perception was stronger than the reality for New York's defense last year. The common train of thought is the Jets' defense had a significant drop off from previous years. The reality was New York finished fifth in total defense in 2011. Some aspects weren't consistent, such as the Jets' pass rush and covering tight ends over the middle. But New York still has the best cornerback duo in football and talent at all three levels. The Jets also added first-round pick Quinton Coples and hard-hitting safeties LaRon Landry and Yeremiah Bell. Until the other division defenses rank in the top five, you have to give the Jets the edge in these rankings.
No. 2: Buffalo Bills
Analysis: The Bills were ranked No. 26th in total defense last year, but they are poised to make a big jump. Buffalo added a pass rush at defensive end with Mario Williams and Mark Anderson, and a starting cornerback in first-round pick Stephon Gilmore. Buffalo's defensive line with Williams, Anderson, Kyle Williams and Marcell Dareus should be one of the NFL's best. Nick Barnett is a talented linebacker. There's also talent in the secondary, particularly with safeties Jairus Byrd and George Wilson. Buffalo's defense has a lot of potential if it can come together quickly.
No. 3: Miami Dolphins
Analysis: This will surely upset Dolphins fans, many of whom feel their defense is elite. Well, as I've said before, Miami's defense is somewhat overrated. It's a good group and a tough group. But it's not elite. Miami was ranked No. 15 in total defense. Its pass defense was No. 25. The Dolphins are still looking for another pass-rusher opposite Cameron Wake, who had 8.5 sacks in 2011. They also lost their leading tackler in Bell and their leader in Jason Taylor, who retired. Miami will play more 4-3 concepts under first-year defensive coordinator Kevin Coyle.
No. 4: New England Patriots
Analysis: The Patriots were the second-worst defense in the league last year. But this is an offensive team that got away with it and nearly won the Super Bowl. New England's defense doesn't cover well and needs to get to the quarterback more. The Patriots added plenty of pass-rushers in free agency and the draft. Perhaps that will help the back end. But New England's offense is so good that it probably won't matter much. If the defense improves from No. 31 to the top 20, that's enough for the Patriots to remain one of the elite NFL teams.
It was not a quiet seven days in the AFC East. Here is my take on several recent events that happened while I was away on vacation:
No. 1: Wes Welker finally signs franchise tender
Walker's take: In one of the final columns I wrote before vacation, I said Welker would be silly to fight the New England Patriots. Many have tried and failed. Welker is no exception. Welker briefly tried anyway by making a series of media appearances, including a trip to ESPN headquarters in Bristol, to win over public opinion. But none of that works with New England. The Patriots are emotionless in negotiations. Business is business. Welker did the smart thing by taking the guaranteed $9.5 million New England is offering. The Patriots may decide later to offer Welker an extension before the season starts, but only if they feel it's best for the team.
No. 2: Yeremiah Bell signs with the Jets
Walker's take: The New York Jets bolstered their safety position with the signing of Bell, who is a solid addition this late in free agency. The problem I have is Bell is similar to fellow free-agent signing LaRon Landry. Both are great tacklers, but the pair struggle in coverage. Will Landry or Bell play free safety and attempt to cover tight ends and receivers going across the middle? Neither is a good option. Eric Smith is probably a little better in coverage, but he's not a viable starter. The Jets did not improve their pass coverage this offseason, which is a major issue.
No. 3: Darrelle Revis and others talk up Tim Tebow
Walker's take: Either the Jets are naïve to this Tebow situation or they really don't care. But Revis, linebacker Bart Scott, head coach Rex Ryan and offensive coordinator Tony Sparano are among those who are really talking up Tebow this offseason. They are adding to the already immense hype, saying how great Tebow looks in practice and how his natural leadership already is showing through. I said weeks ago the Jets need to be careful about hyping the backup quarterback. It only makes it tougher on starter Mark Sanchez. The Jets obviously want and expect Sanchez to do well. But if he struggles early, this offseason Tebow talk could come back to haunt the Jets.
No. 4: Patriots meet with Dallas Clark
Walker's take: This is a classic case of Patriot bargain hunting. Does New England need another pass-catching tight end? Absolutely not. The Patriots have two of the league's best in Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez. Clark would be the third tight end, at best, if he could beat out free-agent signing Daniel Fells. But Clark, 32, is still on the market. So the Patriots are not afraid to visit and see if they can get the former Pro Bowler dirt cheap. It would be unnecessary for New England to sign Clark. But the team is trying to add as much talent as possible under the cap and figure it can sort things out later.
No. 1: Wes Welker finally signs franchise tender
Walker's take: In one of the final columns I wrote before vacation, I said Welker would be silly to fight the New England Patriots. Many have tried and failed. Welker is no exception. Welker briefly tried anyway by making a series of media appearances, including a trip to ESPN headquarters in Bristol, to win over public opinion. But none of that works with New England. The Patriots are emotionless in negotiations. Business is business. Welker did the smart thing by taking the guaranteed $9.5 million New England is offering. The Patriots may decide later to offer Welker an extension before the season starts, but only if they feel it's best for the team.
No. 2: Yeremiah Bell signs with the Jets
Walker's take: The New York Jets bolstered their safety position with the signing of Bell, who is a solid addition this late in free agency. The problem I have is Bell is similar to fellow free-agent signing LaRon Landry. Both are great tacklers, but the pair struggle in coverage. Will Landry or Bell play free safety and attempt to cover tight ends and receivers going across the middle? Neither is a good option. Eric Smith is probably a little better in coverage, but he's not a viable starter. The Jets did not improve their pass coverage this offseason, which is a major issue.
No. 3: Darrelle Revis and others talk up Tim Tebow
Walker's take: Either the Jets are naïve to this Tebow situation or they really don't care. But Revis, linebacker Bart Scott, head coach Rex Ryan and offensive coordinator Tony Sparano are among those who are really talking up Tebow this offseason. They are adding to the already immense hype, saying how great Tebow looks in practice and how his natural leadership already is showing through. I said weeks ago the Jets need to be careful about hyping the backup quarterback. It only makes it tougher on starter Mark Sanchez. The Jets obviously want and expect Sanchez to do well. But if he struggles early, this offseason Tebow talk could come back to haunt the Jets.
No. 4: Patriots meet with Dallas Clark
Walker's take: This is a classic case of Patriot bargain hunting. Does New England need another pass-catching tight end? Absolutely not. The Patriots have two of the league's best in Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez. Clark would be the third tight end, at best, if he could beat out free-agent signing Daniel Fells. But Clark, 32, is still on the market. So the Patriots are not afraid to visit and see if they can get the former Pro Bowler dirt cheap. It would be unnecessary for New England to sign Clark. But the team is trying to add as much talent as possible under the cap and figure it can sort things out later.
» NFC pressure points: West | North | South | East
» AFC pressure points: West | North | South | East
Examining who faces the most challenging season for the Dolphins and why.
Some starting NFL quarterbacks have one challenger breathing down their neck waiting to take their job. But very few incumbents have two quarterbacks gunning for them. That is the situation Matt Moore of the Miami Dolphins is in.
Moore is coming off a career year, going 6-3 in his last nine starts for Miami in 2011. He was the second most consistent quarterback in the AFC East after Tom Brady of the New England Patriots. However, that wasn't nearly enough for Moore to enter this season as Miami's unquestioned starter. He has to compete with veteran David Garrard in training camp.
Even if Moore fends off Garrard in the short term, he would still have to fight off Dolphins first-round pick Ryan Tannehill in the long term. Tannehill is clearly the quarterback of the future in Miami. How quickly Tannehill will take over depends on the rookie's learning curve and Moore's ability to win games.
It's a high-pressure situation for Moore, as it appears nothing will be good enough in Miami. Moore is entering the final year of his contract, and even if he puts up big numbers, Tannehill is expected to take his job for good in 2013.
Moore proved last season that he can handle pressure. He pulled the 0-7 Dolphins out of the gutter by infusing new energy. Miami played solid football in the second half of the season.
But this is a situation Moore won't survive with the Dolphins. The best he can hope for is to beat out Garrard and get enough playing time this year to show another team he can be a long-term starter.
» AFC pressure points: West | North | South | East
Examining who faces the most challenging season for the Dolphins and why.
Some starting NFL quarterbacks have one challenger breathing down their neck waiting to take their job. But very few incumbents have two quarterbacks gunning for them. That is the situation Matt Moore of the Miami Dolphins is in.
Moore is coming off a career year, going 6-3 in his last nine starts for Miami in 2011. He was the second most consistent quarterback in the AFC East after Tom Brady of the New England Patriots. However, that wasn't nearly enough for Moore to enter this season as Miami's unquestioned starter. He has to compete with veteran David Garrard in training camp.
Even if Moore fends off Garrard in the short term, he would still have to fight off Dolphins first-round pick Ryan Tannehill in the long term. Tannehill is clearly the quarterback of the future in Miami. How quickly Tannehill will take over depends on the rookie's learning curve and Moore's ability to win games.
It's a high-pressure situation for Moore, as it appears nothing will be good enough in Miami. Moore is entering the final year of his contract, and even if he puts up big numbers, Tannehill is expected to take his job for good in 2013.
Moore proved last season that he can handle pressure. He pulled the 0-7 Dolphins out of the gutter by infusing new energy. Miami played solid football in the second half of the season.
But this is a situation Moore won't survive with the Dolphins. The best he can hope for is to beat out Garrard and get enough playing time this year to show another team he can be a long-term starter.
The AFC East blog continues its series ranking the top players and coaches. On Sunday, we take a look at the top head coaches in the division.
No. 1: Bill Belichick, New England Patriots
Skinny: There is really no debate. Not only is Belichick the best coach in the AFC East, he's one of the best of all time. Belichick has three Super Bowl rings as a head coach. He's also been to two other Super Bowls, but came up just short against the New York Giants. His ability to game plan and also adapt on the fly is unmatched in the NFL.
No. 2: Rex Ryan, New York Jets
Skinny: Some are put off by Ryan's brash personality, but there is no denying he can coach. Few people know defense as well as Ryan, who grew up in a football family that focused on stopping offenses. Ryan's schemes have worked at every stop, including Baltimore and New York, and players love playing for Ryan. His first two years he led the Jets to back-to-back AFC title games. That is impressive.
No. 3: Chan Gailey, Buffalo Bills
Skinny: Despite his vast experience in the NFL and college, Gailey remains a bit of a mystery. He had two decent years in Dallas, but was abruptly fired. He got his second chance in Buffalo, but is just 10-22 his first two seasons with the Bills. A case can be made that Gailey hasn't had much to work with in Buffalo. That's fair. But the Bills have done a lot to improve the roster this offseason, and I think we will find out how good Gailey is as a head coach in 2012.
No. 4: Joe Philbin, Miami Dolphins
Skinny: Philbin is another mystery, because this is his first year as a head coach. But I've been impressed with his presence and organization so far. The job doesn't seem too big for the longtime assistant. But the key for Philbin is whether can he jump-start Miami's offense. Philbin is installing a new West Coast scheme, and much of his job in the first year will be graded on how well he manages that side of the football.
No. 1: Bill Belichick, New England Patriots
Skinny: There is really no debate. Not only is Belichick the best coach in the AFC East, he's one of the best of all time. Belichick has three Super Bowl rings as a head coach. He's also been to two other Super Bowls, but came up just short against the New York Giants. His ability to game plan and also adapt on the fly is unmatched in the NFL.
No. 2: Rex Ryan, New York Jets
Skinny: Some are put off by Ryan's brash personality, but there is no denying he can coach. Few people know defense as well as Ryan, who grew up in a football family that focused on stopping offenses. Ryan's schemes have worked at every stop, including Baltimore and New York, and players love playing for Ryan. His first two years he led the Jets to back-to-back AFC title games. That is impressive.
No. 3: Chan Gailey, Buffalo Bills
Skinny: Despite his vast experience in the NFL and college, Gailey remains a bit of a mystery. He had two decent years in Dallas, but was abruptly fired. He got his second chance in Buffalo, but is just 10-22 his first two seasons with the Bills. A case can be made that Gailey hasn't had much to work with in Buffalo. That's fair. But the Bills have done a lot to improve the roster this offseason, and I think we will find out how good Gailey is as a head coach in 2012.
No. 4: Joe Philbin, Miami Dolphins
Skinny: Philbin is another mystery, because this is his first year as a head coach. But I've been impressed with his presence and organization so far. The job doesn't seem too big for the longtime assistant. But the key for Philbin is whether can he jump-start Miami's offense. Philbin is installing a new West Coast scheme, and much of his job in the first year will be graded on how well he manages that side of the football.


